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Poland in 30 years’ time

Shifting alliances, changing borderlines, dissolution of international institutions – that’s what we may expect in the next 30 years. Where is Poland in all of this?

If we use our imagination and fastforward to the 2050s, we will see an image shaped by six phenomena of critical importance, some of which we can already see and experience now

1) There will be an irreversible change in the ethnic make-up of most of the “Old Europe” countries. The population of this territory will comprise unassimilated but well-settled and established minorities (although they may no longer be minorities) of immigrants, in the continuing South-to-North migration. 2) The countries of “New Europe,” Poland in particular, will be populated at a fast pace by migrants from the East, particularly from the declining and dismembered Ukraine. 3) The states that were united in the 19th century – especially those that formed Italy and Germany – will be subject to a gradual decomposition: social atomism will be seen as a means of partly preserving their identities and welfare. 4) Twentieth-century supranational formations designed to bring about economic, political and military integration will become a thing of the past or will remain a facade only, as the UN is today. 5) China-dominated eastern Africa will become the world’s largest economic organism. 6) The US, dominated internally and externally by the Latino communities of the Americas, will limit its interest in Europe – both “Old” and “New” alike – to a minimum, strengthening instead the anti-China alliance with Russia. Russia, for its part, will reduce its interest in Central and Eastern Europe, once it restores its influence over its “historic lands” that it lost in the last decade of the 20th century.

Now, let us take a brief look at each of these factors.

Factor number one is critical to the future of Old Europe. In 30-odd years’ time, a new generation of the descendants of African immigrants will have grown up, considering the region their own, with no need to assimilate with the indigenous people. Partly taking over the local languages, they will speak German, French, English, or Italian, but the language will no more cement them within the rest of the society. Some immigrants and their