SURVEY OF VIRGINIA REALTORS
June 11, 2012 R. Andrew Bauer Sonya Ravindranath Waddell Regional Research Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond The survey was conducted jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Virginia Association of Realtors. The survey period was April 10 to April 13, 2012. We would like to thank Stacey Ricks at the Virginia Association of Realtors for promoting the survey and garnering such a strong response by Association members. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
Survey Results An online survey of the members of the Virginia Association of Realtors was conducted from April 10 to April 13, 2012. Members were asked 11 questions regarding the state of the residential housing market and how those conditions changed during the first quarter of 20121. The survey link was sent to the members by the Association and members were reminded over the course of the week to participate. Due to the efforts of the Association a large number of Realtors participated in the survey (1,449). The results of the survey are documented here. We present results for the entire state, results by region, and results for specific areas, counties, and cities that have a large number of responses. The results are not seasonally adjusted.2 The results of the survey indicate that during the first quarter of 20123: • • • •
• •
• • •
•
Housing market conditions improved with close to 60 percent of respondents indicating that conditions were slightly or significantly better. Customer traffic picked up with close to 60 percent of respondents indicating that traffic was slightly or significantly greater. First-time homebuyers represented more than half of homebuyers in the market. Activity was mostly in mid-range priced homes although 39 percent of respondents reported that purchases were in the lower-end segment of the market. There was little change in customer traffic translating to sales. Inventory conditions varied considerably with a significant number of respondents indicating that inventory levels were too high and a significant number indicating that they were too low. Distressed homes remained a considerable factor weighing on the market with over 40 percent of respondents indicating they were “a big factor”. Appraisals were another factor weighing on the market with 58 percent of Realtors reporting appraisals that, in their estimate, were too low. Underwriting and financing issues also negatively impacted activity with 39 percent of respondents indicating that underwriting “frequently” prevented sales while 34 percent reported that borrowers “frequently” had difficulty getting mortgage financing. Overall, 51 percent of the survey respondents’ outlook for the housing market improved since the beginning of 2012.
1
See the Appendix for the survey questions. See data note in the Appendix regarding interpreting not-seasonally adjusted survey data. 3 See Table 1 for more detail. 2
2
Table 1: Virginia Realtor Survey Results (percent of total responses)
Market Conditions
Significantly or Slightly Worse
19
About the Same
24
Significantly or Slightly Better Significantly or Slightly Lower Customer Traffic
Customer Traffic (Type)
Purchase Price
Foot Traffic to Sales
Inventory
Not at All Distressed Homes
8
Somewhat of a Factor
51
57
Big Factor
41
19
Much Too or Somewhat Low
58
About Right
38
Appraisals
About the Same
23
Significantly or Slightly Greater
57
Much Too or Somewhat High
First-time buyers
56
Rarely
Homeowners moving up
21 Underwriting Occasionally
51
Homeowners downsizing
15
Frequently
39
Rarely
16
Occasionally
50
Second-home buyers
9
High End
5 Financing
4 10
Mid Range
56
Lower End
39
Frequently
34
Significantly or Slightly Worse
26
Significantly or Slightly Worse
20
About the Same
39
About the Same
29
Significantly or Slightly Better
35
Significantly or Slightly Better
51
Very or Somewhat Low
42
About Right
16
Very or Somewhat High
42
Outlook
3
Survey Results by Region The survey asked each participant to list the state or states and the “regions/markets within those states” where their business “primarily operates”. Based on those responses, we categorized each survey respondent into one of eight geographic regions and calculated the regional response rate. The chart and table on the next page defines the eight regions. In addition, we grouped the responses by region/market and calculated response rates for individual areas, counties, and cities in which there were more than ten responses. Many respondents listed more than one area where they “primarily” conducted business. Their response was attributed to each area listed. Those results are detailed in Tables 3-6. For brevity, the top ten markets within each region are listed although some regions did not have sufficient responses to list ten markets. Furthermore, two regions did not have enough responses to detail any market level results. The regional results of the survey indicate that during the first quarter of 20124: •
•
•
•
•
Market conditions improved relatively broadly across the state. There were modest differences across regions. The strongest results were in the Northern region—with 63 percent of respondents indicating that market conditions were slightly or significantly better. The weakest results were in the Eastern and Southwest region where 49 and 44 percent of respondents, respectively, indicated that market conditions improved. The other regions (Valley, Central, Hampton Roads, Southside, and West Central) were somewhere in the middle. Not surprisingly, the regions that had the strongest responses for market conditions also had the strongest responses for customer traffic. Increases in customer traffic were greatest in the Northern, Central, and West Central regions. The conversion from foot traffic to closed sales showed very moderate differences across regions. The Southside, Southwest, and Eastern regions had less of an improvement than other regions while the Northern, Central, and Hampton Roads regions had the greatest improvement. The type of home purchase varied considerably across regions, although firsttime home purchases were the most prevalent. In the Valley region, 78 percent of respondents indicated that the typical client was a first-time homebuyer. In contrast, in the Eastern region only 47 percent were first-time homebuyers while 22 percent were homeowners that were downsizing or second-home buyers. There were very little high-end home purchases with respondents across most regions indicating that mid-range home purchases were most common, followed by lower-end purchases—the exceptions were the Valley and Southwest regions.
4
See Table 2 for more detail.
4
•
•
•
•
•
•
Inventory levels varied noticeably across regions. In the Northern region, just 10 percent of respondents indicated that inventories were very or somewhat high while 74 percent indicated that inventories were very or somewhat low. This was in stark contrast to all other regions where inventories were reported as being high. Among those regions reporting higher inventory levels, the West Central, Eastern, and Southside regions’ response rates for very or somewhat high was 85, 73, and 71 percent, respectively. Distressed homes weighed on housing prices to varying degrees. In the Eastern, Hampton Roads, and Central regions more than half of respondents indicated that distressed homes were a big factor. In contrast only 15 percent of respondents indicated that they were a big factor in the Southwest region and roughly one-quarter of respondents in the Northern region. In most regions, a majority of respondents indicated that appraisals were much too or somewhat low. In the Eastern, Southside, and South Central regions more than 70 percent of respondents felt that appraisals were too low. In contrast, in the Valley and West Central regions the percentage of respondents indicating that appraisals were too low was only slightly greater than those indicating that appraisals were about right. Tighter underwriting standards were a factor weighing on the market. In the Northern region one-third of respondents indicated that tighter underwriting frequently prevented a sale while in the Southside region 57 percent of respondents indicated that tighter underwriting prevented a sale. Similarly, obtaining mortgage financing was another factor impacting the market. In the Northern region 27 percent of respondents reported that clients frequently had difficulty getting mortgage financing. For most other regions, between 33 and 40 percent of respondents indicated that mortgage financing was frequently difficult to obtain. In the Southwest and Eastern regions, close to 50 percent of respondents indicated that obtaining financing was frequently difficult. Despite the challenges presented by high inventories, low appraisals, distressed homes, and financing conditions, Realtors were more optimistic about the outlook for 2012. With the exception of the Southwest and Eastern region, fifty percent or more of respondents in other regions indicated that their outlook had improved, with the Southside region showing the greatest improvement. In the Southwest region an equal percentage of respondents indicated their outlook had improved as those who indicated that it had not changed, while in the Eastern region 43 percent indicated that their outlook improved, compared to 33 percent who indicated that it had worsened and 25 percent who indicated that it had not changed.
5
Virginia Regions5
Northern Alexandria, Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax City,Fairfax County,Falls Church, Fauquier, Fredericksburg, Loudoun, Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren
Central
Eastern
Valley
Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Buena Accomack,Essex, King George, Vista, Covington, Frederick, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Harrisonburg, Highland, Lexington, Northumberland, Richmond Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, County,Westmoreland Shenandoah, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester
Hampton Roads
Southside
Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Charlottesville, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights, Chesapeake, Franklin, Gloucester, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville, Hampton, Isle of Wight, James City, Fluvanna, Goochland, Emporia, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Mathews, Newport News, Norfolk, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell, Lunenburg,Martinsville, Mecklenburg, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Surry, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Edward, Southampton York Petersburg, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Richmond City, Sussex
West Central
Southwest
Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford City, Bedford County, Botetourt, Campbell, Bland, Bristol, Buchanan, Carroll, Craig, Franklin County, Giles, Dickenson, Floyd, Galax, Grayson, Lynchburg, Montgomery, Pulaski, Lee, Norton, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Radford, Roanoke City, Roanoke Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe County, Salem
5
The responses were aggregated to eight regions as defined in “Virginia Performs: A Regional Perspective” by the Council on Virginia’s Future.
6
Table 2: Responses by Region6 (percent of total responses)
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
Customer Traffic - Type
Number of Responses
Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic
1449 ALL 459 Northern Region 39 Eastern Region 80 Valley Region 304 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 223 20 Southside Region 77 West Central Region 38 Southwest Region
19 18 21 17 17 19 33 15 23
24 19 31 25 24 22 10 27 33
57 63 49 58 59 58 57 58 44
26 23 42 25 24 27 38 30 31
39 38 34 42 37 37 43 39 46
35 38 24 33 38 36 19 30 23
19 17 28 20 14 20 33 18 23
23 20 28 27 24 25 24 22 31
57 63 45 53 62 55 43 61 46
56 55 47 78 54 65 61 48 47
21 27 8 14 25 14 11 16 19
15 12 22 3 13 15 17 24 25
9 7 22 5 8 5 11 13 9
Region
Lower End
Very or Somewhat Low
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
Big Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
Appraisals
Mid Range
Distressed Homes
High End
Inventory
Number of Responses
Purchase Price
1449 ALL 459 Northern Region 39 Eastern Region 80 Valley Region 304 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 223 20 Southside Region 77 West Central Region 38 Southwest Region
5 6 8 0 6 4 0 4 10
56 60 53 41 53 51 60 53 45
39 34 39 59 42 45 40 43 45
42 74 23 34 32 15 19 10 24
16 15 5 16 16 21 10 5 11
42 10 73 50 53 64 71 85 66
8 15 0 1 4 2 5 3 26
51 59 35 57 43 41 60 54 59
41 26 65 41 53 56 35 44 15
58 56 73 49 61 61 70 49 76
38 40 28 47 37 36 20 44 24
4 4 0 4 2 3 10 6 0
Region
Occasionally
Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Outlook
Rarely
Financing
Number of Responses
Underwriting
1449 ALL 459 Northern Region 39 Eastern Region 80 Valley Region 304 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 223 20 Southside Region 77 West Central Region 38 Southwest Region
10 13 5 5 9 10 5 5 3
51 53 43 61 48 50 38 51 42
39 33 53 34 43 40 57 44 55
16 24 11 9 13 15 5 15 3
50 48 37 55 49 48 55 51 49
34 27 53 37 38 38 40 33 49
20 21 33 21 17 20 33 16 23
29 26 25 29 32 27 5 30 38
51 53 43 50 50 53 62 53 38
Region
6
Individual regions do not sum to total as not every respondent listed a region/market.
7
Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region
8
Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region
9
Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region
10
Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region
11
Table 3: Northern Region Responses (percent of total responses)
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
459 38 58 96 46 47 99 94 32 38 24
19 18 16 14 26 12 15 16 19 15 18 20
24 19 21 15 17 13 21 20 18 36 26 20
57 63 63 71 57 74 64 64 63 48 56 60
26 23 11 9 23 15 28 16 32 42 38 36
39 38 51 47 38 44 45 46 37 24 36 24
35 38 38 45 38 41 28 38 32 33 26 40
19 17 13 10 15 14 8 15 16 15 18 32
23 20 16 17 34 14 40 23 24 39 38 12
57 63 71 73 51 71 52 62 60 45 44 56
56 55 63 58 50 58 63 54 62 60 74 80
21 27 26 36 36 25 11 36 26 12 13 10
15 12 6 2 12 11 17 6 8 8 6 10
9 7 6 4 2 6 9 5 4 20 6 0
Very or Somewhat Low
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
SoBig Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
5 6 5 11 4 7 0 10 2 6 0 4
56 60 63 63 62 67 46 62 61 46 55 33
39 34 33 26 34 27 54 28 37 49 45 63
42 74 92 86 78 79 73 73 80 70 74 48
16 15 5 12 13 15 10 15 13 9 13 16
42 10 3 2 8 6 17 12 7 21 13 36
8 15 27 38 22 17 4 16 12 12 13 8
51 59 57 52 62 62 52 65 62 33 46 24
41 26 16 10 15 21 44 19 26 55 41 68
58 56 55 58 57 38 60 49 58 76 62 71
38 40 37 39 36 53 38 47 35 21 33 25
4 4 8 3 7 9 2 4 7 3 5 4
Financing Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
459 38 58 96 46 47 99 94 32 38 24
Occasionally
1449
Outlook
Rarely
ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax Fairfax City Fredericksburg Loudoun Prince William Spotsylvania Stafford Warren
Number of Responses
Underwriting
Region
Appraisals
Lower End
459 38 58 96 46 47 99 94 32 38 24
Distressed Homes
Mid Range
1449
Inventory
High End
ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax Fairfax City Fredericksburg Loudoun Prince William Spotsylvania Stafford Warren
Number of Responses
Purchase Price
Region
Customer Traffic - Type
Significantly or Slightly Better
1449
Customer Traffic
About the Same
ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax Fairfax City Fredericksburg Loudoun Prince William Spotsylvania Stafford Warren
Foot Traffic to Sales
Significantly or Slightly Worse
Region
Number of Responses
Market Conditions
10 13 11 10 14 4 10 8 13 12 10 0
51 53 50 55 52 61 50 56 52 42 54 48
39 33 39 34 34 35 40 36 35 45 36 52
16 24 32 32 24 26 24 19 20 26 25 8
50 48 32 42 50 43 46 50 48 32 47 58
34 27 37 25 26 32 30 31 32 42 28 33
20 21 18 12 12 28 25 20 27 24 26 32
29 26 29 31 23 26 29 27 25 33 38 32
51 53 53 58 64 47 46 53 47 42 36 36
12
Table 4: Eastern & Valley Region Responses
(percent of total responses)
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
Valley Region Augusta Frederick Rockingham Shenandoah Valley Winchester
About the Same
ALL Eastern Region Middle Peninsula Northern Neck
Significantly or Slightly Worse
Region
1449 39 14 16
19 21 43 13
24 31 14 31
57 49 43 56
26 42 62 27
39 34 15 40
35 24 23 33
19 28 43 18
23 28 14 24
57 45 43 59
56 47 50 33
21 8 8 13
15 22 33 20
9 22 8 33
80 11 25 14 24 17
17 0 23 7 8 17
25 36 19 29 25 22
58 64 58 64 67 61
25 18 31 14 21 39
42 64 35 57 42 28
33 18 35 29 38 33
20 9 35 0 13 22
27 27 19 29 21 28
53 64 46 71 67 50
78 60 95 62 85 90
14 30 0 31 10 0
3 10 0 8 5 0
5 0 5 0 0 10
Lower End
Very or Somewhat Low
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
Big Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
1449 39 14 16
5 8 15 6
56 53 54 56
39 39 31 38
42 23 7 6
16 5 0 6
42 73 93 88
8 0 0 0
51 35 43 47
41 53 57 53
58 73 64 76
38 28 36 24
4 0 0 0
80 11 25 14 24 17
0 0 0 0 0 0
41 44 29 67 46 29
59 56 71 33 54 71
34 27 46 29 39 38
16 0 23 21 17 25
50 73 31 50 43 38
1 0 4 0 0 0
57 91 35 71 50 29
99 9 62 29 50 71
49 27 54 43 54 56
47 73 42 57 42 39
4 0 4 0 4 6
Financing
Occasionally
Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Valley Region Augusta Frederick Rockingham Shenandoah Valley Winchester
Rarely
ALL Eastern Region Middle Peninsula Northern Neck
Outlook
Number of Responses
Underwriting
Region
Appraisals
Mid Range
Valley Region Augusta Frederick Rockingham Shenandoah Valley Winchester
Distressed Homes
High End
ALL Eastern Region Middle Peninsula Northern Neck
Inventory
Number of Responses
Purchase Price
Region
Customer Traffic - Type
Number of Responses
Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic
1449 39 14 16
10 5 0 6
51 43 36 41
39 53 64 53
16 11 0 0
50 37 43 35
34 53 57 65
20 33 43 18
29 25 14 35
51 43 43 47
80 11 25 14 24 17
5 0 12 7 0 11
61 45 54 64 75 61
34 55 35 29 25 28
9 0 20 0 0 18
55 55 52 71 79 47
37 45 28 29 21 35
21 18 27 14 8 18
29 27 23 29 33 24
50 55 50 57 58 59
13
Table 5: Central Region Responses
(percent of total responses) About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
ALL Central Region Albemarle Charlottesville Chesterfield Culpeper Hanover Henrico Louisa Orange Powhatan Richmond
Significantly or Slightly Worse
Region
1449 304 16 28 36 15 16 34 16 14 13 137
19 17 6 7 14 27 19 17 19 7 23 14
24 24 18 21 24 20 19 20 38 21 31 21
57 59 76 72 62 53 63 63 44 71 46 65
26 24 31 32 30 40 31 31 38 29 38 18
39 37 19 25 30 33 31 34 44 29 23 38
35 38 50 43 41 27 38 34 19 43 38 44
19 14 6 10 14 20 6 14 19 7 23 14
23 24 12 10 27 20 25 20 31 21 23 21
57 62 82 79 59 60 69 66 50 71 54 65
56 54 36 35 50 50 53 48 36 50 36 49
21 25 27 30 25 8 33 24 36 17 18 31
15 13 18 13 14 33 7 21 7 17 27 11
9 8 18 22 11 8 7 7 21 17 18 9
Mid Range
Lower End
Very or Somewhat Low
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
Big Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
5 6 12 9 0 7 0 3 7 7 0 6
56 53 65 55 67 36 47 58 53 33 75 63
39 42 24 36 33 57 53 39 40 60 25 31
42 32 40 30 33 67 29 32 38 57 27 29
16 16 7 11 12 20 0 10 13 14 18 18
42 53 53 59 55 13 71 58 50 29 55 53
8 4 0 0 0 7 0 3 13 14 0 4
51 43 71 69 46 53 38 40 38 36 38 44
41 56 29 31 54 40 63 57 50 50 62 52
58 61 59 69 65 73 75 71 75 71 54 61
38 37 41 31 32 27 25 29 25 29 46 39
4 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Financing
Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
304 16 28 36 15 16 34 16 14 13 137
Occasionally
Number of Responses 1449
Outlook
Rarely
ALL Central Region Albemarle Charlottesville Chesterfield Culpeper Hanover Henrico Louisa Orange Powhatan Richmond
Appraisals
1449 304 16 28 36 15 16 34 16 14 13 137
Underwriting
Region
Distressed Homes
High End
ALL Central Region Albemarle Charlottesville Chesterfield Culpeper Hanover Henrico Louisa Orange Powhatan Richmond
Inventory
Number of Responses
Purchase Price
Region
Customer Traffic - Type
Number of Responses
Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic
10 9 6 7 11 0 6 11 6 0 15 10
51 48 63 61 49 64 56 54 50 77 62 47
39 43 31 32 41 36 38 34 44 23 23 43
16 13 12 24 6 7 6 12 6 29 0 12
50 49 71 55 64 47 56 56 56 36 62 48
34 38 18 21 31 47 38 32 38 36 38 40
20 17 0 3 6 33 13 11 13 14 8 17
29 32 18 24 36 40 25 31 31 29 38 29
51 50 82 72 58 27 63 57 56 57 54 54
14
Table 6: Hampton Roads Region Responses
(percent of total responses)
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
Customer Traffic - Type
Number of Responses
Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic
1449 ALL Hampton Roads Region 223 43 Chesapeake 14 Hampton 127 Hampton Roads 15 Newport News 42 Norfolk 22 Portsmouth 24 Suffolk 22 Tidewater 53 Virginia Beach 25 Williamsburg
19 19 16 14 21 13 19 18 17 27 17 16
24 22 23 21 28 20 21 32 21 23 22 12
57 58 61 64 52 67 60 50 63 50 61 72
26 27 27 43 27 40 30 41 38 36 24 20
39 37 34 14 42 13 30 36 17 32 43 36
35 36 39 43 31 47 40 23 46 32 33 44
19 20 9 7 25 7 7 14 8 32 11 8
23 25 25 7 26 7 30 27 25 18 26 20
57 55 66 86 49 87 63 59 67 50 63 72
56 65 76 83 75 85 73 88 85 70 66 43
21 14 11 8 8 8 16 6 10 15 15 24
15 15 11 8 12 8 8 6 5 10 11 24
9 5 3 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 9 10
Region
Lower End
Very or Somewhat Low
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
Big Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
Appraisals
Mid Range
Distressed Homes
High End
Inventory
Number of Responses
Purchase Price
1449 ALL Hampton Roads Region 223 43 Chesapeake 14 Hampton 127 Hampton Roads 15 Newport News 42 Norfolk 22 Portsmouth 24 Suffolk 22 Tidewater 53 Virginia Beach 25 Williamsburg
5 4 2 0 1 0 5 0 4 0 6 7
56 51 45 56 46 59 44 30 38 41 47 63
39 45 52 44 53 41 51 70 58 59 47 30
42 15 14 0 16 0 14 9 8 14 21 4
16 21 18 21 24 20 21 18 17 9 21 12
42 64 68 79 59 80 65 73 75 77 58 84
8 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 8
51 41 25 21 40 27 28 18 25 36 30 56
41 35 75 79 58 73 72 82 75 59 70 36
58 61 59 36 64 33 60 68 58 68 61 54
38 36 36 64 34 67 35 27 42 32 35 46
4 3 5 0 2 0 5 5 0 0 4 0
Region
Financing
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Outlook
Number of Responses
Underwriting
1449 ALL Hampton Roads Region 223 43 Chesapeake 14 Hampton 127 Hampton Roads 15 Newport News 42 Norfolk 22 Portsmouth 24 Suffolk 22 Tidewater 53 Virginia Beach 25 Williamsburg
10 10 14 14 6 13 12 14 13 0 11 20
51 50 41 29 48 33 44 27 29 59 43 48
39 40 45 57 46 53 44 59 58 41 46 32
16 15 16 21 8 27 19 14 8 5 15 28
50 48 43 43 50 40 42 45 50 50 43 44
34 38 41 36 42 33 40 41 42 45 43 28
20 20 16 0 21 0 16 32 17 27 19 16
29 27 27 36 34 33 28 27 25 32 28 16
51 53 57 64 45 67 56 41 58 41 54 68
Region
15
Table 7: Southside, West Central & Southwest Responses (percent of total responses)
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
Significantly or Slightly Lower
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Greater
First-time buyers
Homeowners moving up
Homeowners downsizing
Second-home buyers
20
19 33
24 10
57 57
26 38
39 43
35 19
19 33
23 24
57 43
56 61
21 11
15 17
9 11
West Central Region Lynchburg New River Valley Roanoke Roanoke Valley Smith Mountain Lake
77 23 10 17 14 10
15 17 0 17 21 27
27 30 20 28 21 45
58 52 80 56 57 27
30 35 0 39 29 64
39 30 70 39 36 27
30 35 30 22 36 9
18 17 0 22 14 27
22 26 20 22 21 36
61 57 80 56 64 36
48 50 63 46 36 0
16 11 0 15 36 14
24 28 38 31 18 29
13 11 0 8 9 57
Southwest Region
38
23
33
44
31
46
23
23
31
46
47
19
25
9
Region
ALL Southside Region
Number of Responses
About the Same
Customer Traffic - Type
Significantly or Slightly Worse
Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic
1449
About Right
Very or Somewhat High
Not at All
Somewhat of a Factor
Big Factor
Much Too or Somewhat Low
About Right
Much Too or Somewhat High
20
5 0
56 60
39 40
42 19
16 10
42 71
8 5
51 60
41 35
58 70
38 20
4 10
West Central Region Lynchburg New River Valley Roanoke Roanoke Valley Smith Mountain Lake
77 23 10 17 14 10
4 0 0 0 8 25
53 64 58 50 38 38
43 36 42 50 54 38
10 9 0 6 7 9
5 4 10 6 0 0
85 87 90 89 93 91
3 4 0 0 7 0
54 65 60 53 43 20
97 30 40 47 50 80
49 45 50 44 50 64
44 45 50 44 43 36
6 9 0 11 7 0
Southwest Region
38
10
45
45
24
11
66
26
59
74
76
24
0
Region
ALL Southside Region
Number of Responses
Very or Somewhat Low
Appraisals
Lower End
Distressed Homes
Mid Range
Inventory
High End
Purchase Price
1449
Financing
Frequently
Rarely
Occasionally
Frequently
Significantly or Slightly Worse
About the Same
Significantly or Slightly Better
20
10 5
51 38
39 57
16 5
50 55
34 40
20 33
29 5
51 62
West Central Region Lynchburg New River Valley Roanoke Roanoke Valley Smith Mountain Lake
77 23 10 17 14 10
5 14 0 6 0 0
51 55 60 50 50 18
44 32 40 44 50 82
15 35 0 22 0 0
51 43 80 44 43 45
33 22 20 33 57 55
16 22 0 17 14 27
30 26 20 28 29 55
53 52 80 56 57 18
Southwest Region
38
3
42
55
3
49
49
23
38
38
Region
ALL Southside Region
Number of Responses
Occasionally
Outlook
Rarely
Underwriting
1449
16
Appendix Survey Questions with Responses 1. How have market conditions for your business changed during the first quarter of 2012? Significantly Worse 6.5% Slightly Worse 12.6% About the Same 23.7% Slightly Better 44.7% Significantly Better 12.4%
2. How has customer traffic changed during the first quarter of 2012? Significantly Lower 7.8% Slightly Less 11.4% About the Same 23.5% Slightly Greater 44.5% Significantly Greater 12.8%
3. Is most of your customer traffic: First time Buyers 55.7% Homeowners Moving Up 21.1% Homeowners Downsizing 14.6% Second-home Buyers 8.7%
4. What type of home purchases is your typical client making? Please indicate price range and property type. High End 4.9% Mid Range 55.4% Lower End 38.7%
Singly Family 81.5% Multi-Family 5.4%
5. How has the conversion from foot traffic to closed sales changed in the first quarter of 2012? Significantly Worse 7.1% Slightly Worse 19.1% About the Same 38.6% Slightly Better 30.1% Significantly Better 5.1%
6. How would you characterize the inventory of homes on the market in your area? Very Low 13.9% Somewhat Low 28.1% About Right 16.2% Somewhat High 30.2% Very High 11.7%
7. In terms of pricing, how much are distressed homes for sale a negative factor in your market? Not at All 8.3% Somewhat a Factor 51.0% Big Factor 40.7%
8. How would you characterize appraisals during the first quarter of 2012? Much Too Low 10.6% Somewhat Low 47.0% About Right 38.1% Somewhat High 3.8% Much Too High 0.5%
9. How often does tighter underwriting prevent sales? Rarely 9.8% Occasionally 50.8% Frequently 39.4%
10. In the first quarter of 2012, have clients had difficulty getting mortgage financing? Rarely 16.3% Occasionally 49.7% Frequently 34.0%
11. How has your outlook for the housing market changed since the beginning of the year? Significantly Worse 4.5% Slightly Worse 15.6% About the Same 29.1% Slightly Better 42.0% Significantly Better 8.8%
Data Note It is important to note that the survey results are not seasonally adjusted, which will affect their interpretation. For example, housing activity tends to be weaker in the winter months because of bad weather. A slowdown in housing activity in winter months, then, could be either due to real economic circumstances or could be due to normal, seasonal fluctuation. Looking at the Realtor survey responses, it is impossible to know the extent to which respondents are implicitly adjusting their responses to account for seasonal factors.
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