2011 2015
second second T HIRD Quarter QUARTER Quarter
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q2
Third Quarter Market Summary There were approximately 31,176 home sales in Virginia in the third quarter, 13% more than in the third quarter of 2014. Increased sales were experienced in every price range, except homes that sold for more than $1M. Increased sales in nearly every price range may be an indication of higher consumer confidence and overall market health. Each region of Virginia experienced higher yearover-year sales, with the exception of the Central Valley. The median sales price indicated little seasonal change in sales prices in the third quarter. Prices increased from the second to third quarter, which is somewhat unusual in recent years. Median sales price increased 2.3% yearover-year, but year-over-year changes varied throughout the state. Regional changes in median sales price ranged from a decrease of 2.3% in the Central Valley to 9.0% and 9.5% in Southside and Southwest Virginia respectively. Days on the market increased throughout the quarter, following a typical seasonal trajectory. Nonetheless, days on the market in the third quarter of 2015 were 6.8% lower than the third quarter of 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012
2013
2014
2015
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012
5,068
5,775
7,213
7,698
9,064
9,740
8,664
9,026
7,213
7,259
7,405
6,847
2013
5,533
5,942
7,470
8,665
10,488
10,802
10,383
10,155
8,186
7,950
6,949
7,559
2014 2015
5,356 5,772
5,642 6,044
7,109 8,441
8,467 9,079
9,647 10,232
10,579 12,358
10,121 11,723
9,421 10,113
8,290 9,340
8,398
6,599
8,231
There were approximately 9,340 home sales in September 2015, 13% more sales than in September 2014. Sales decreased 7.6% from August to September, a relatively small decrease compared to previous years. Since sales typically stay relatively constant from September to October, Virginia is likely to show strong sales throughout the fall, barring any dramatic decrease in November.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
35,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
32,041
31,176
29,962
30,000
28,757
28,728
+11.31% YOY
28,008
26,502 25,000
24,911 23,392
22,458 21,509 20,000
21,327 18,910
18,153
15,000
10,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter
The pace of home sales was 11.31% higher in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter of 2014. Large year-over-year increases in sales in July (15.25%) and September (11.8%) account for the majority of the year-over-year increase in quarterly sales. Sales in August 2015 were 6.7% higher than sales in August 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
110,000
106,950
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
104,768 99,109
100,000
100,058 99,301
95,292
90,978 90,000
86,658
101,484 98,096
97,376
98,310
91,832
88,568
+23.4%
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2015-Q3 figure (106,950 sales) includes home sales from October 2014 through September 2015. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The annualized sales measure increased 2.1% from 2015-Q2 to 2015-Q3. The third quarter of 2015 was the fourth consecutive quarter of increase in this measure, after a steady decline from 2013-Q4 to 2014-Q3. Further, annualized sales have increased 23.4% since the second quarter of 2012. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance in the residential real estate market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Regional Changes in Sales 2014-Q3 vs. 2015-Q3 Units
Northern Virginia +10.7% Central Valley -7.2%
Central Virginia +13.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +18.8% Southwest Virginia +16.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +14.0%
Southside Virginia +3.8%
Region
2014-Q3
2015-Q3
Change
Central Valley
1,808
1,678
-7.2%
Central Virginia
4,651
5,262
13.1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
6,411
7,308
14.0%
Northern Virginia
12,077
13,374
10.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
2,218
2,636
18.8%
Southside Virginia
495
514
3.8%
Southwest Virginia
343
399
16.3%
All of Virginia
28,003
31,171
11.3%
Almost every region of the state experienced a relatively strong third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2014, with the exception of the Central Valley. The Central Valley experienced a 7.2% decrease in sales year-over-year, with 130 fewer sales in 2015-Q3 than in the third quarter of 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$350,000
$265,000
$259,990
$244,467
$255,000
$259,000
$267,000 $235,000
$249,000
$254,000
$269,900 $233,000
$241,000
$250,000
$248,000
$249,500
Median Sales Price
$300,000
+2.3% $200,000
+6.9%
$150,000 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased slightly (2.3%) year-over-year to $265,000 in the third quarter of 2015. An increase in median price from the second quarter to the third quarter is unusual for Virginia in recent years. Over the longer term, the median sales price in Virginia increased 6.9% over the third quarter of 2012. Virginia prices remain very stable, showing very little seasonal change.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2014-Q3 vs. 2015-Q3
Northern Virginia -1.3% Central Valley -2.3%
Central Virginia +3.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -0.6% Southwest Virginia +9.5%
Southside Virginia +9.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +4.7%
Region
2014-Q3
2015-Q3
Change
Central Valley
$220,000
$215,000
-2.3%
Central Virginia
$209,000
$216,000
3.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$215,000
$225,000
4.7%
Northern Virginia
$379,900
$375,000
-1.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$164,975
$164,000
-0.6%
Southside Virginia
$81,900
$89,250
9.0%
Southwest Virginia
$105,000
$115,000
9.5%
All of Virginia
$259,000
$265,000
2.3%
Regional changes in median sales price ranged from a decrease of 2.3% in the Central Valley to and increase of 4.7% in the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region. Southside and Southwest Virginia showed more dramatic increases, 9.0% and 9.5% respectively, but lower overall sales prices and fewer sales make the percent change more dramatic and less meaningful. Overall, the median sales price stayed relatively stable throughout the state.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
12
11
10.71 10.07
9.91
10
9.54
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9.30
9.06
9
+11.1%
8.20 8
7
6
7.68
7.40 6.93 6.45
6.21 5.50
5.36
5
4
3
2
2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2014-Q3 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2015 ($10.1B) increased 11% from the third quarter of 2014 ($9.1B). Sales volume increased primarily due to increased sales, since increases in sales were much more significant than increases in price throughout the state (see pages 7 and 9).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014-Q3 $2M + $1.5M - $2M
53 53
0%
107 89
-20.2% 386 372
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
-3.8% 835 962
$750K - $1M
2015-Q3
13.2% 3,097 3,416
$500K - $750K 2,701
$400K - $500K
3,130
9.3%
13.7% 4,404
$300K - $400K
5,111
13.8% 6,637
$200K - $300K
7,478
11.2%
7,052
$100K - $200K
7,686 2,745 2,879
0 - $100K
0
500
8.2%
4.7%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Year-over-year home sales increased in all price ranges in the third quarter, except for homes selling for more than $1M. Sales in the $300K-$1M ranges showed the largest increase, but home sales in the lower price ranges also increased substantially. Increased sales in nearly every price range may be an indication of higher consumer confidence and overall market health.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100
90
85
88
92
91
89
84 81
80
80 71
73
71
73 68
Average Days On Market
70
60
68
-6.8% YOY
50
40
30
20
10
0 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3
Quarter
Days on the market decreased 6.8% year-over-year. Average days on the market remained the same from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2015, which has become a trend over the past three years. Days on the market increased throughout the third quarter, from 64 in July to 71 in September.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
16,000
600,000
14,000
434,000
12,000 10,000
446,000
500,000
400,000
10,172
10,113
8,000
300,000
6,000
200,000
4,000 100,000
2,000 0
Jul-14
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-14 (p) Jan-15 (p) Feb-15 (p) Mar-15 (p) Apr-15 (p) May-15 (p) Jun-15 (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p)
0
The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout 2015, but decreased more substantially in August. Virginia’ experienced a particularly low number of sales in August, so high sales in September will likely put Virginia back in sync with the sales in the U.S. as a whole.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
$300,000
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
$268,000
$266,500
$250,000
$300,000 $250,000
$230,200
$200,000 $222,500
$200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15 (p)
May-15 (p)
Jun-15 (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p)
$50,000
The Virginia median sales price decreased more substantially than the U.S. median price from June to August. The Virginia median sales price generally tracks the trajectory of U.S. median sales price, while remaining higher overall. *Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
5.9%
5.8%
5.6% 5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.3%
5.2% 4.9%
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
4.8%
4.7%
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
4.9%
2015-Q2
4.8%
2015-Q3
2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.
Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted, September 2015 (U.S. rate = 5.1 percent)
9.0% and over 8.0% to 8.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 5.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
4.0% to 4.9% 3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in September, while the national rate remained unchanged. Decreasing unemployment rates typically have a positive influence on consumer confidence and long-term decreases could boost home sales. September is the third consecutive month in which Virginia has experienced a decrease in its unemployment rate.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.44%
4.4%
4.30%
4.2%
4.36%
4.23%
4.14%
4.0%
3.97%
3.8% 3.6%
3.72%
3.69% 3.54%
3.4%
3.83%
3.95%
3.50% 3.36%
3.2%
3.0% 2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
3.6% 3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2% 3.0%
3.0% 2.8%
2.8% 2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
3.1%
3.1%
2.9%
2.4% 2.2%
2.0% 2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates increased in each month of the third quarter of 2015, although both 30-year and 15-year rates decreased marginally throughout the quarter. July rates were the highest of 2015 thus far, at 4.05% for 30-year mortgages and 3.21% for 15-year mortgages.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 16