2011 2015
second second FOURTH Quarter QUARTER Quarter
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速速, 速 Published byby Virginia association reaLtors the advocate forfor Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by Virginia association ofof reaLtors , the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners inin Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 primary local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Fourth Quarter Market Summary The 2015 Virginia residential real estate market outperformed every year from 2007 to 2014. Virginia’s 2015 residential real estate market far outperformed 2012, 2013 and 2014 in the peak of summer sales. In June, 2015 sales approached the levels Virginia last experienced in 2005 and 2006. In the fourth quarter, 2015 sales were 3.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2014. Annualized residential sales also increased in the fourth quarter, indicating that the Virginia residential real estate market is still growing steadily. Virginia’s median sales price has remained extremely stable and experienced no year-over-year change in the fourth quarter. The median sales price followed typical seasonal trends throughout the year, although moderate changes made seasonality less pronounced. Median sales price increased year-over-year in every region except Northern Virginia. The state and national unemployment rates remain low while mortgage interest rates increased. Since mortgage interest rates remain historically low, the low unemployment rate should encourage participation in the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012
2013
2014
2015
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012
5,068
5,775
7,213
7,698
9,064
9,740
8,664
9,026
7,221
7,267
7,400
6,842
2013
5,528
5,922
7,460
8,669
10,483
10,810
10,389
10,154
8,185
7,950
6,949
7,559
2014 2015
5,377 6,781
5,667 6,058
7,109 8,488
8,467 9,122
9,647 10,334
10,643 12,651
10,172 11,789
9,482 10,172
8,354 9,524
8,445 8,819
6,650 6,958
8,297 8,505
There were approximately 8,505 home sales in December 2015, 2.5% more sales than in December 2014. Sales increased 22% from November to December, following a trend very similar to the fourth quarter of 2014. Virginia experienced a higher number sales in 2015 compared to the previous three years overall, and in nearly every month. Virginia far outperformed 2012, 2013 and 2014 in the peak of summer sales. In June, sales approached the levels Virginia last experienced in 2005 and 2006. The pattern of sales in 2015 suggests that Virginia’s residential real estate market is growing.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
35,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
32,107 29,962
30,000
25,000
31,485
28,757
28,728
28,008
24,911
24,282
23,392
22,458 21,509 20,000
21,327 18,910
+3.8% YOY
18,153
15,000
10,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter
The number of home sales was 3.8% higher in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. 2015 fourth quarter sales followed a very similar trajectory compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, with a decline in sales from October to November and then a substantial increase in sales in December.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120,000
108,311
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
109,201
104,834 99,109
100,000
100,058 99,301
101,484 98,096
95,292
90,000
88,568
90,978
97,376
98,310
+11.08%
91,832
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2015-Q4 figure (109,201 sales) includes home sales from January 2015 through December 2015. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The annualized sales measure increased 11% from 2014-Q4 to 2015-Q4. The fourth quarter of 2015 was the fifth consecutive quarter of increase in this measure, after a steady decline from 2013-Q4 to 2014-Q3. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance and growth in the residential real estate market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Regional Changes in Sales 2014-Q4 vs. 2015-Q4 Units
Northern Virginia +3.2% Central Valley -5.6%
Central Virginia +6.4%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +7.8% Southwest Virginia -5.7%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +5.5%
Southside Virginia -6.5%
Region
2014-Q4
2015-Q4
Central Valley
1,493
1,410
Central Virginia
3,879
4,128
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,513
5,814
Northern Virginia
9,859
10,176
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,857
2,001
Southside Virginia
430
402
Southwest Virginia
366
345
All of Virginia
23,397
24,276
Northern Virginia, Central Virginia, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay regional all experienced year-over-year increases in sales in the fourth quarter. Southside Virginia, Southwest Virginia, and the Central Valley each experienced a year-over-year decrease in sales. Overall, the balance of increase and decrease across regional sales accounts for the relatively small year-over-year change in statewide sales volume.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$350,000
$255,000
$265,000
$259,990
$244,467
$255,000
$259,000
$267,000 $235,000
$249,000
$254,000
$233,000
$241,000
$250,000
$248,000
Median Sales Price
$269,900
$300,000
+/-0% $200,000
+5.8% $150,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter
The 2015-Q4 median sales price is exactly the same as the 2014-Q4 median sales price. Both are 5.8% higher than the median price in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 2.4% higher than the fourth quarter of 2013. Virginia prices remain very stable, while following typical seasonal trends.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2014-Q4 vs. 2015-Q4
Northern Virginia -0.8% Central Valley +2.3%
Central Virginia +7.5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 0.3% Southwest Virginia +7.7%
Southside Virginia +1.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +6.1%
Region
2014-Q4
2015-Q4
Central Valley
$202,500
$207,250
Central Virginia
$200,000
$214,925
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$206,000
$218,500
Northern Virginia
$372,000
$368,850
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$159,500
$160,000
Southside Virginia
$81,000
$82,500
Southwest Virginia
$111,000
$119,500
All of Virginia
$255,000
$255,000
Southwest Virginia, Central Virginia and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region each experienced a relatively large year-over-year increase in sale prices. Northern Virginia, the Central Valley, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region and Southside Virginia experienced marginal year-over-year changes in median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
12
10.75
11
10.18
9.91
10
9.54
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9.30
9.06
9
8
7
6
7.68
7.73
7.40
+4.5% YOY
6.93 6.45
6.21 5.50
5.36
5
4
3
2
2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2015 ($7.7B) increased 4.5% from the fourth quarter of 2014 ($7.4B). The 4.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume reflects the increase in the number of sales in the fourth quarter because sales prices were only marginially higher in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 as indicated by median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014-Q4 $2M +
60 37
-38%
$1.5M - $2M
79 95
20% 301 314
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
4% 711 669
$750K - $1M
-6% 2,349 2,541
$500K - $750K
2,159 2,260
$400K - $500K
2015-Q4
8%
5% 3,600 3,828
$300K - $400K
6% 5,365
$200K - $300K
5,926
10%
6,081 6,181
$100K - $200K 2,698 2,431
0 - $100K
0
500
2%
-10%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Year-over-year home sales increased in the price ranges between $100,000 and $750,000 and between $1 and $2 million in the fourth quarter. Sales decreased in the $0 to $100,000 range, the $750,000 to $1 million range and the $2 million and over range. Since very few sales occur in the ranges over $750,000, these ranges fluctuate between year-over-year increases and decreases often. Sales in ranges below $750,000 represent the vast majority of transactions in Virginia and serve as a better indicator of market performance. Sales decreased in the lowest price range, possibly because of limited inventory.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100
88
90
92
91
89
84 81
80
80 71
73
71
73 68
70
Average Days On Market
78
60
68
-3.7% YOY
50
40
30
20
10
0 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4
Quarter
Average days on the market decreased 3.7% year-over-year. Average days on the market increased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2015, following Virginia’s regular seasonal trends. Average days on the market decreased year-over-year throughout 2015.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
16,000
600,000
14,000 12,000
500,000
389,000 351,000
10,000 8,000
400,000
300,000
8,445
6,000
6,871
200,000
4,000 100,000
2,000 0
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15 (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p) Sep-15 (p) Oct-15 (p) Nov-15 (p)
0
The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales were similar to the changes in the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout 2015. The United States as a whole experienced a more substantial decrease in sales at the beginning of the year, compared to Virginia. Virginia’s sales decreased somewhat more rapidly through the second half of the year compared to the United States as a whole.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
$300,000 $250,000 $200,000
$300,000
$246,200
$208,000
$251,500
$220,300
$250,000 $200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
$50,000
The Virginia median sales price stayed extremely stable in the second half of 2015, while the United States median sales price decreased more substantially. *Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
5.8%
5.6% 5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.3%
5.2% 4.9%
4.8%
4.9%
4.7%
4.8% 4.2%
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.
Unemployment Rates by State, seasonally adjusted, November 2015 (U.S. rate = 5.0 percent)
9.0% and over 8.0% to 8.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 5.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
4.0% to 4.9% 3.9% or below
The United States unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% throughout the fourth quarter. The Virginia rate also remained unchanged in October and November at 4.2%. The December unemployment rate for Virginia has not yet been published. Nonetheless, the Virginia unemployment rate is the lowest Virginia has experienced since August of 2008.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.44%
4.4%
4.30%
4.2%
4.36%
4.23%
4.14%
4.0%
3.97%
3.8%
3.4%
3.72%
3.69%
3.6%
3.83%
3.95%
3.90%
3.50% 3.36%
3.2%
3.0% 2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
3.1%
3.1%
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
3.6% 3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2% 3.0%
3.0% 2.8% 2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
3.1%
2.9%
2.4% 2.2%
2.0% 2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
30-year mortgage interest rates decreased slightly in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2015, while the average of 15-year rates remain the same from the thrid to fourth quarter of 2015. These averages are somewhat misleading since monthly 30-year and 15-year rates increased throughout the quarter. The 30-year mortgage interest rate reported by Freddie Mac was 3.96% in December and 15-year rate was 3.21%.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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