Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
2016
AUGUST
August 2016
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Central
Southside
Eastern
Southwest
Hampton Roads
Valley
Northern
West Central
Central
Eastern Hampton Roads
Northern
Southside
Southwest
Valley
West Central
Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
1
August 2016
August Market Summary August 2016 residential real estate sales strengthened significantly relative to the same month last year. The value of transactions for August 2016 was $3.793 billion, a significant 14.8 percent jump from August 2015. Volume through the end of August 2016 exceeded $25.941 billion, a gain of 6.8 percent from last year’s accumulation of $24.294 billion. The market rebounded strongly from a relatively sluggish July and continues to outperform prior years. Following seasonal trends, August median price declined slightly month‐over‐month and from the June peak but was 1.7 percent higher than in the same month last year ($272,500 over $268,000 in 2015). Average length of time on the market decreased markedly, by 13 percent (from 69 days last August to 60 in August 2016). Atypical of industry seasonality, August 2016 sales were slightly higher than July sales; the market typically peaks in June and begins to taper through the end of the year. The number of August transactions grew year‐over‐year by 12.5 percent, from 10,204 sales to 11,482. Greater August sales may reflect that more inventory has come onto the market, expanding buying opportunities and boosting sales and volume.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
2
August 2016
Sales Pace ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 14,000 12,000
13,200
12,684 11,820 10,369
11,729
10,204
10,000
9,566
11,482 11,408
10,164 8,868
8,000
8,748
8,619
7,019 5,914
6,000 4,000
6,527
12.5 %
2,000 0
The number of home sales in Virginia increased year‐over‐year by 12.5 percent, from 10,204 in August of 2015 to 11,482 in August of 2016. Atypical of industry seasonal trends, sales increased slightly (.6 percent) from July. Historically, the Virginia market has peaked in June in sales activity and other performance indicators, including price and length of time on the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
3
August 2016
Sales Pace ‐ August Benchmarks Single Family, Condo, Townhome 11,482
12,000 11,000
10,234
10,204 9,487
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 August 2013
August 2014
August 2015
August 2016
August 2016 sales indicate long‐term improvement from earlier benchmarks. Year‐over‐year gains indicate sustained strengthening in the market.
Sales Pace ‐ January through August Single Family, Condo, Townhome 90,000 80,000
74,659
70,000
10,204 10,234
60,000
79,043 11,482
9,487
50,000 40,000 30,000
59,841
57,301
2013
2014
64,455
5.9 %
67,561
20,000 10,000 ‐ 2015
2016
Year‐to‐date sales have continued to grow over the long‐term. Year‐to‐date sales through August 2016 exceeded sales for the same period last year by 5.9 percent (79,043 sales over 74,659), and were 18.4 percent greater than for the same period in 2014. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
4
August 2016
Median Sales Price Single Family, Condo, Townhome
$272,500
$278,000
$289,900
$276,000
$265,000
$252,000
$244,900
$250,000
$245,315
$264,000
$251,915
$250,000
$270,000
$251,930
$268,000
$290,000
$275,000
$310,000
$275,000
$330,000
$284,000
$350,000
$230,000 $210,000
1.7 %
$190,000
Median sales price for August 2016 rose 1.7 percent year‐over‐year, from $268,000 to $272,500. Month‐over‐month, median price dropped 2 percent from $278,000. Median price typically peaks in June. A year‐over‐year increase suggests sustained strength in the market. Supporting other indicators of August 2016 strength, the seasonal decline in median price from July this year was less pronounced (2 percent) than last year (2.6 percent).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
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August 2016
Residential Sales Volume ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome $3.793
$5.00
Billions of Dollars
$4.00 $3.50
$3.303
$4.50
$3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50
14.8 %
$1.00 $0.50 $0.00
August 2016 sales volume increased significantly by nearly 15 percent from the previous year benchmark. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home sale price in Virginia and, therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. The year‐over‐year increase in volume was magnified by significant increase in pace, or number of sales, and steady increase in median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
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August 2016
Average Days on Market Single Family, Condo, Townhome 100 86
90 78
80 70
67
62
64
78
85 80
77
72
69
71 63
60
58
60
60
50 40 30
‐ 13 %
20 10 0
The average number of days on the market in August 2016 (60) decreased 13 percent from last August (69). Though average time on the market typically lengthens as the market transitions from summer into the third quarter, this year August remained on par with July. Sustained urgency among buyers, even as inventory loosened, may account for the relative speed of transactions.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
7
August 2016
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0%
3.7% Jul‐16
3.9%
3.7% Jun‐16
4.0%
3.7%
4.0% Mar‐16
3.9%
4.1% Feb‐16
4.1% Jan‐16
4.2% Nov‐15
4.2%
4.2% Oct‐15
Dec‐15
4.2% Sep‐15
4.6% Apr‐15
4.2%
4.7% Mar‐15
4.5%
Aug‐15
4.8% Feb‐15
4.3%
4.8% Jan‐15
Jul‐15
4.8% Dec‐14
4.4%
4.9% Nov‐14
Jun‐15
5.0% Oct‐14
5.0%
4.5%
5.0% Sep‐14
5.5%
5.1%
6.0%
Aug‐14
6.5%
3.5% Aug‐16
May‐16
Apr‐16
May‐15
3.0%
NOTE: all figures updated September 20, 2016.
The Virginia unemployment rate for August 2016 rose slightly to 3.9 percent (seasonally adjusted).
Average 30 ‐Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.25% 4.05% 3.91%
3.85%
3.94%
3.89%
3.96% 3.87%
3.80% 3.66%
3.65%
3.69% 3.61%
3.60%
3.57%
3.45%
3.44%
3.44%
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
3.25% Aug‐15
Sep‐15
Oct‐15
Nov‐15
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rates remained static in August 2016 at 3.44 percent. Rates are likely to remain at historic lows, continuing to offer incentive to prospective buyers. The latest indications from the Federal Reserve Bank suggest that a key interest rate increase may continue to be stalled, as inflation is below target and the national unemployment rate has not changed greatly.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
8
August 2016
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Jenny Wortham Virginia Association of REALTORS® Jenny@VARealtor.com 804‐262‐3755 or Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804‐249‐5708 The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded September 14, 2016
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