MAY 2016
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
May 2016
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
May Market Summary
Virginia residential real estate sales showed strong growth in May 2016, both seasonally and in comparison to prior years. Climbing towards the summer peak, May indicators outperformed April figures. Pace, volume, price, and average length of time on the market all typically improve each month through June. Sales pace, or number of transactions, for May rose year‐over‐year by 10.9 percent, from 10,369 sales to 11,499. Sales pace for May 2016 grew 14 percent over April, contributing to a monthly volume of more than $3.861 billion. Due to stronger pace and rising median price, May volume was 10.0 percent higher than last May’s ($3.509 billion). Year‐to‐date volume, the sum of each home sale price since the beginning of the year, exceeded $13.537 billion, 6.6 percent higher than the January through May volume in 2015 ($12.702 billion). Year‐over‐year growth in May volume was due primarily to increased pace, as the growth in median price was marginal (from $275,000 to $277,000). In a seasonal comparison, May median price rose 4.5 percent from April ($265,000). The average length of time on the market declined significantly month‐over‐month and year‐over‐year to 62 days, dropping 7.5 percent from the previous May (67 days) and 11.4 percent from this April (70 days).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
Sales Pace ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 14,000
12,684 11,818
12,000
10,369 10,000
8,521
10,202
9,169
11,499 9,563
8,000
10,085 8,867
8,748
8,573
7,017 6,085
5,896
6,000
6,515
10.9 %
4,000 2,000 0
The number of home sales in Virginia increased nearly 10.9 percent year‐over‐year, from 10,369 in May of 2015 to 11,499 in May of 2016. From April to May this year, sales increased by 14.0 percent (from 10,085). Seasonal gains, or month‐over‐month improvements, are typical as the industry cycles from winter and spring into the summer peak. Gains on previous year benchmarks indicate sustained market strengthening.
Sales Pace ‐ May Benchmarks Single Family, Condo, Townhome 12,000
11,499
11,500 11,000
10,582
10,369
10,500 9,703
10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 May 2013
May 2014
May 2015
May 2016
May 2016 residential real estate sales show strong gains on recent prior year benchmarks. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
Median Sales Price Single Family, Condo, Townhome
$350,000
$277,000
$265,000
$252,500
$244,800
$264,000
$252,000
$250,000
$252,000
$268,000
$275,000
$284,000
$230,000
$245,000
$250,000
$251,500
$270,000
$246,000
$290,000
$260,000
$310,000
$275,000
$330,000
0.7 %
$210,000 $190,000
Median sales price for May 2016 ($277,000) grew less than one percent (0.7 percent) from May 2015 ($275,000), but climbed 4.5 percent from April this year ($265,000). Median price reaches its highest point in the summer, usually in June.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
Residential Sales Volume ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 5.00 4.50 $3.861 billion
3.50
$3.509 billion
billions of dollars
4.00 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50
10.0 %
1.00 0.50 0.00
Sales volume grew 10.0 percent from May 2015 to May 2016. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home sale price in Virginia and, therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. Because the change in median price was slight (0.7 percent), the year‐over‐year increase in May volume is due mostly to the significant rise in pace, or number of sales. May sales grew 18.0 percent from April ($3.861 billion from $3.271 billion), a strong gain that demonstrates industry seasonality. Typically, volume rises each month through June.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
Average Days on Market Single Family, Condo, Townhome 100 90 80
92 86
84 78
77
70
67
62
64
69
78
72
77
85 79 70 62
60 50
7.5 %
40 30 20 10 0
The average number of days on the market in May 2016 decreased from the prior month and also from May of last year. Average number of days on the market in May 2016 (62) decreased 7.5 percent from the prior May (67). Inverse to the growth in median price and sales pace, days on the market compress as market activity quickens through spring into summer. Limited inventory creates a sense of urgency amongst buyers that contributes to a shorter average length of time on the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
4.8% Jul‐15
4.1%
4.9% Jun‐15
Jan‐16
4.9% May‐15
4.2%
4.8% Apr‐15
Dec‐15
4.8% Mar‐15
4.1%
4.7% Feb‐15
Nov‐15
4.7% Jan‐15
4.2%
4.8% Dec‐14
Oct‐15
4.8% Nov‐14
4.3%
4.9% Oct‐14
4.5%
Sep‐15
5.0% Sep‐14
5.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.3% Jul‐14
Aug‐14
5.2% Jun‐14
5.5%
5.2%
6.0%
May‐14
6.5%
4.0% 3.5% Aug‐15
3.0%
The Virginia unemployment rate for May 2016 dropped to its lowest level since May 2008. State unemployment for the month dropped to 3.8 percent, continuing to outperform the average national rate. Along with a declining unemployment rate, the perception of employment stability correlates with increased consumer confidence that may encourage potential home buyers to enter the market.
Average 30 ‐Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddiMac
4.40% 4.20% 4.05%
4.00%
3.98% 3.91% 3.84%
3.80%
3.94%
3.89%
3.96% 3.87%
3.80%
3.67%
3.66%
3.60%
3.69% 3.61%
3.40% Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15
Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16
Average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased in May 2016 to 3.61 percent, the lowest rate for any month in the last three years. Sustained low interest rates enhance accessibility to the market and may encourage prospective buyers. The Federal Reserve Bank has indicated that a key interest rate increase will be deferred, citing sluggish global economic performance. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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May 2016
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804‐249‐5708 The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Data recorded June 12, 2016
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