2011 2012
Quarter QUARTER
Fsecond I R S T Quarter
VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009
2010
2011
2012
10,000
Virginia Mo
Single Fam
8,000
2009 12,000
6,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
Number of Condo SingleSales Family, Townhome and Condo Sales Number of Single Family, Townhome and
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
July
Virginia Mon
Single Famil 2009
8,000 12,000 August
September October
November December
Month
Jul 6,000 Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9,59310,000 8,545
8,018
8,384
7,892
6,573
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2009
4,758
5,391
6,740
7,212
8,096
9,849
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
2011
4,713
5,113
7,104
6,760
8,390
8,220
7,968
8,133
6,916
6,246
6,043
6,688
2012
4,945
5,710
6,996
4,000 8,000
The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the first quarter of 2012, compared to the previous three years. This surge in real estate activity began with strong sales in 2,000 6,000 January and February -- both at the highest levels seen since at least 2009. March 2012 sales were not quite as strong as March 2010 and 2011, but they were strong enough to keep the overall first quarter ahead as compared to the first quarters of the three0 4,000 previous years.
-1.6% best in 4 years best in 4 years
January
February
March
April
Looking ahead, the second quarter of 2012 will likely compare favorably to 2011, as home sales were rather slow in both April and June of last year. 2,000
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733
28,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
26,156 26,000
25,157
24,000
23,370
22,849
23,017
22,000 20,774 20,000
18,977
18,513 18,000
17,651 16,889
16,930
16,541
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter
When viewed on a quarterly basis, the first quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with a 4.3% increase in home sales as compared to the first quarter of 2011. This is the second year in a row of growth in first quarter home sales in Virginia, after sales dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2010. For the second quarter 2012 home sales trend, we are likely to see an increase, since home sales during the second quarter of last year were the lowest pace of second quarter sales seen in the past several years. Two significant factors contributing to continued strength in Virginia’s housing market are current historically low mortgage interest rates and continued low unemployment levels as compared to other areas of the country.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
93,279 89,640
91,051 88,127
Market
90,703 87,897
87,843
oost
Decline
Tax
it B Cred
Po
st
83,561
81,830
Tax -
75,000
83,950
Cre
dit
82,294
83,015
79,587
De
cli
ne
ry?
Recove
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter
When examining long term trends, it seems nearly certain that the worst is behind us as far as the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen solid increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for four quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q1 figure includes home sales from 2011-Q2 through 2012-Q1. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market. While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions. While the federal home buyer tax credit provided a brief respite from declining home sales between 2009-Q3 and 2010-Q2, the pace of sales declined again all the way through the second quarter of 2012 when the market began to pick up steam again.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q1 vs. 2012-Q1 Units
Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley +9.9%
Central Virginia +3.8% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +8.8% Southwest Virginia +38.2%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +7.3%
Southside Virginia +6.5%
Region
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
Change
Central Valley
860
945
+9.9%
Central Virginia
2,588
2,687
+3.8%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
4,019
4,312
+7.3%
Northern Virginia
7,773
7,753
-0.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,192
1,297
+8.8%
Southside Virginia
355
378
+6.5%
Southwest Virginia
173
239
+38.2%
Home sales increased in nearly every region of the Commonwealth during the first quarter of 2012 as compared to the first quarter of 2011. The largest, most populated region (Northern Virginia) did not fare quite as well (-0.3%) as all of the other regions in Virginia (+3.8% to +38.2%). Looking back at earlier data, the lack of increase in sales in Northern Virginia can be attributed to earlier market recoveries in those regions.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$235,000 $210,000
$232,500
$249,900
$239,900
$225,000
$225,839
$229,900
$216,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$229,900
$300,000
+2.4%
$200,000
-0.5% $150,000
$100,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.4% over the past year to $215,000 for all residential sales. The median sales price did show a decline from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, but this is typical for this timeframe. Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has only decreased by 0.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q1 vs. 2012-Q1
Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley -1.2%
Central Virginia -4.1% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -1.4% Southwest Virginia +6.2%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.4%
Southside Virginia +11.1%
Region
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
Change
Central Valley
$188,200
$186,000
-1.2%
Central Virginia
$170,000
$163,000
-4.1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$187,608
$185,000
-1.4%
Northern Virginia
$283,250
$300,000
+5.9%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$140,000
$138,000
-1.4%
Southside Virginia
$71,000
$78,900
+11.1%
Southwest Virginia
$91,090
$96,750
+6.2%
After serveral years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see stability and even increases in sales prices for some regions. When comparing the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2011, only one region (Central Virginia) experienced a decline in median sales price of more than -2%. While Northern Virginia experienced a slight decline in the pace of sales (-0.3%) during this time frame, the median sales price actually increased 5.9%.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000
7,625 7,192
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
7,182 7,000
6,787 6,411
6,402
6,000 5,433
5,263
5,000 4,416
4,739
4,553
4,496
4,000
3,000
2,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter
This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2012 ($4.7B) marks a 5.4% increase from the first quarter of 2011 ($4.5B). This is the first quarterly increase seen in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108 100
100
103
96 91 87
84
92
91
86 79
80
Average Days On Market
100
81
60
40
20
0 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 Quarter
The average time to market and sell a house has inreased slightly (+3%) over the past year, but has declined 5% over the past three years. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q1
$2M +
21 +29% 27
$1.5M - $2M
32 +25% 40 134 +4% 139
$1M - $1.5M
329 -1% 326
$750K - $1M
Price Range
2012-Q1
1,256 +4% 1,300
$500K - $750K
1,161 +7% 1,246
$400K - $500K
2,110 +14% 2,411
$300K - $400K
3,843 +1% 3,872
$200K - $300K
5,353 n/a 5,364
$100K - $200K 2,727 +7% 2,926
0 - $100K 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Home sales increased in nearly every price range during the first quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the first quarter of 2011. Of note, the more moderate price ranges ($100K-$200K, $200K-$300K) experienced very little change in sales pace, while price ranges above $300K experienced much more of an increase during this time period.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2011-Q4 vs. 2012-Q1
Northern Virginia -24% Central Valley +29%
Central Virginia -26% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -9% Southwest Virginia -22%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -14%
Southside Virginia -37%
Region
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
Change
Central Valley
77
99
+29%
Central Virginia
586
435
-26%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
673
582
-14%
Northern Virginia
1,523
1,159
-24%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
118
107
-9%
Southside Virginia
84
53
-37%
Southwest Virginia
27
21
-22%
All of Virginia
3,088
2,456
-21%
Foreclosure rates decreased in nearly every region in Virginia in the first quarter of 2012 to mark an overall 21% decline in Virginia foreclosures as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The largest proportional declines were seen in Southside Virginia (-37%), Central Virginia (-26%), Northern Virginia (-24%) and Southwest Virginia (-22%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000
500,000
12,000 10,000
361,000
347,000
8,000 6,000
400,000 300,000
7,104
6,996
200,000
4,000 100,000
2,000 0
0 Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. March 2012 home sales increased 4% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to March 2011, while Virginia experienced a 2% decline.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000 $250,000
$240,000 $225,000
$215,000
$220,000 $200,000
$200,000
$180,000
$150,000
$160,000 $163,800
$159,800 $100,000
$140,000 $120,000
$50,000
$100,000 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
Feb-12 Mar-12
Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (March 2011 to March 2012), though home values increased a bit more in Virginia (+5% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+3%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
7.2% 6.7%
6.9%
7.0%
7.4%
7.0% 6.5%
6.4%
6.3%
6.5% 6.0%
6.1% 5.6%
2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1
2012-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2012 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, March 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.2 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate is at its lowest levels (5.6%) in more than three years, and Virginia currently has the 9th lowest unemployment rate in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5% 5.0%
5.42% 5.06%
5.00%
4.93%
4.97% 4.74%
4.5%
4.71%
4.86% 4.51%
4.35%
4.01%
4.0%
3.95%
3.99%
3.5% 3.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%
4.9% 4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.0%
4.2%
4.1% 3.8%
3.5%
4.1% 3.7% 3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1
Long-term mortgage interest rates have remained relatively steady over the past six months with 30-year fixed rates hovering just under 4%, and 15-year fixed rates remaining just above 3%. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.
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Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q1
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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