速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.
2011 2012
Quarter QUARTER Quarter
Ssecond ECOND second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009
2010
2011
2012
10,000
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, C
8,000
2009
2010
2011
2
12,000
6,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
0 January
Jan
February
Feb
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales mber of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
8,000
March
April
May
June
July Month
Mar 6,000 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
August
September October
November December
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Co
Aug
Sep
Oct
8,0182009 8,384
Nov
Dec
2010 7,892
2011 6,573
2009
4,758
5,391
6,740
7,212
8,096
9,849
2010
4,562
4,892
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
4,728
5,116
7,087 12,000 8,337 7,145 7,311
8,903
2011
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,264
6,072
6,759
2012
5,044
5,833
7,180 4,000 7,638
9,000
9,399
9,593
8,545
10,000 The pace of residential home sales increased significantly in Virginia during the second quarter of 2012, compared to the same time frame last year. The 2,000second quarter of 2011 only marked 24,925 home sales while there were 26,037 home sales in the second quarter of 2012. 8,000
+7% YOY +4% YOY
+2% YOY
Looking closer, both April (+4%0YOY) and May (+7% YOY) showed strong year-over-year gains inJanuary home sales -- while March June February April May June July 6,000 2012 showed a smaller year-over-year improvement (+2%). Month Looking ahead, we are likely to see strong third and fourth quarters given low interest rates and declining unemployment rates. 4,000 Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733
28,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
26,156 26,000
26,037
25,157
24,000
23,370
22,849
23,022
+11% YOY
22,000 20,774 20,000
19,095
18,513 18,000
18,057 16,930
16,541 16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter
When viewed on a quarterly basis, the second quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with an 11.4% increase in home sales as compared to the second quarter of 2011. This is a significant increase in the pace of home sales in Virginia, and is likely a result of continued low interest rates, and low unemployment rates in the Commonwealth. We are likely to see fewer home sales in the third quarter of 2012 as compared to the second quarter, as typically the July through September home sales market is not quite as robust as April through June.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000
95,000
93,279
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
91,051 90,000
85,000
88,127
90,703
87,843
Tax
it Cred
t Boos
80,000
87,897 86,211
Po
st
83,561
Tax -
83,950 81,835
Cre
dit
75,000
82,417
79,587
De
cli
ne
ry!
cove
f Re gns o
Si
83,544
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter
When examining long term trends, it seems quite certain that we are finally seeing lasting improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for five quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q2 figure (86,211 sales) includes home sales from 2011-Q3 through 2012-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q2 vs. 2012-Q2 Units
Northern Virginia +8.3% Central Valley -11.1%
Central Virginia +9.6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +1.8% Southwest Virginia -7.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +1.5%
Southside Virginia -19.5%
Region
2011-Q2
2012-Q2
Change
Central Valley
1,591
1,415
-11.1%
Central Virginia
3,700
4,057
+9.6%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,755
5,843
+1.5%
Northern Virginia
11,215
12,145
+8.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,844
1,878
+1.8%
Southside Virginia
486
391
-19.5%
Southwest Virginia
330
304
-7.9%
The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lense of year-over-year changes in the pace of home sales. The two most highly populated areas of the Commonwealth (Northern Virginia and Central Virginia) both experienced significant increases in the pace of home sales over the past year (+8.3%, +9.6%). Other regions experienced anywhere from a 7.9% to 19.5% decline in the pace of home sales.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$249,900 $215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$232,500
$232,000
$249,900
$239,900
$225,000
$225,000
$235,000
+7.5%
$210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$234,000
$300,000
$200,000
+6.8% $150,000
$100,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.5% over the past year to $249,900 for all residential sales. This is well higher than the second quarter median sales price for the past several years -- and is in a tie for the highest price in the past three years. Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has only increased by 6.8% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q2 vs. 2012-Q2
Northern Virginia +6.6% Central Valley -0.9%
Central Virginia +2.8% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +4.1% Southwest Virginia +9.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +3.5%
Southside Virginia +18.5%
Region
2011-Q2
2012-Q2
Change
Central Valley
$212,000
$210,000
-0.9%
Central Virginia
$179,900
$185,000
+2.8%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$198,000
$205,000
+3.5%
Northern Virginia
$332,136
$354,000
+6.6%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$148,900
$155,000
+4.1%
Southside Virginia
$74,450
$88,250
+18.5%
Southwest Virginia
$105,500
$115,000
+9.0%
After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see increases in median sales prices in almost all regions of Virginia. When comparing the second quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2011, only one region (Central Valley) experienced a decline in median sales price -- and it was a decline of less than one percent. Northern Virginia, Southwest Virginia and Southside Virginia led the pack in increases in median sales prices (+6.6%, +9.0%, +18.5%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000
8,033
7,625 7,192
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
7,182 7,000
6,789 6,411
6,402
6,000 5,433
5,298 4,855
5,000 4,553
4,496
4,000
3,000
2,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter
This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2012 ($8.0B) marks an 11.7% increase from the second quarter of 2011 ($7.2B). This is only the second quarterly increase seen in recent years in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120
104 100
96 91 87
Average Days On Market
80
104 100
84
86 79
94
93 84
82
60
40
20
0 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter
The average time to market and sell a house has decreased 11% over the past year to an average of 84 days, which marks a 12% decline over the past three years. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q2
$2M +
30 +33% 40
$1.5M - $2M
60 +13% 68 278 +8% 299
$1M - $1.5M
665 +4% 691
$750K - $1M
Price Range
2012-Q2
2,387
$500K - $750K
2,840
+19%
1,974 +17% 2,309
$400K - $500K
3,500
$300K - $400K
3,936
+12% 5,456
$200K - $300K
5,886
+8% 7,053 -1% 6,956
$100K - $200K 3,522
0 - $100K
3,012 0
500
-14%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Home sales increased in nearly every price range during the second quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the second quarter of 2011. Of note, the most affordable price range (under $100K) was the only price range to experience a significant decline in sales pace. This may be the result of overall increases in median sales prices which would be moving some under $100K properties up into the $100K - $200K price range.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2012-Q1 vs. 2012-Q2
Northern Virginia -16% Central Valley -7%
Central Virginia -6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +47% Southwest Virginia +52%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -5%
Southside Virginia +4%
Region
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
Change
Central Valley
99
92
-7%
Central Virginia
435
408
-6%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
582
551
-5%
Northern Virginia
1,159
974
-16%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
107
157
+47%
Southside Virginia
53
55
+4%
Southwest Virginia
21
32
+52%
All of Virginia
2,456
2,269
-8%
Foreclosure rates decreased in many regions of Virginia in the second quarter of 2012 to mark an overall 8% decline in Virginia foreclosures as compared to the first quarter of 2012. The largest proportional declines were seen in Northern Virginia (-16%), though Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg and Southwest Virginia experienced significant increases in foreclosures (+47%, +52%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000 12,000
444,000 391,000
400,000
10,000 8,000
9,000
8,390
6,000
500,000
300,000 200,000
4,000 100,000
2,000 0
0 May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. May 2012 home sales increased 13% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to May 2011, while Virginia experienced a 7% increase.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000 $249,000 $250,000 $225,000
$240,000 $220,000 $200,000
$200,000
$180,000 $182,600
$150,000 $169,300
$160,000 $140,000
$100,000
$120,000
$50,000
$100,000 May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (May 2011 to May 2012), though home values increased a bit more in Virginia (+11% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+8%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
7.2%
6.9%
7.0%
7.4%
7.0% 6.5%
6.4%
6.3%
6.5% 6.0%
6.1% 5.6%
5.6%
2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2
2012-Q2 unemployment rate based on preliminary May 2012 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.2 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate is at its lowest levels (5.6%) in more than three years, and Virginia currently has the 9th lowest unemployment rate in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.
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Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5%
5.42% 5.06%
5.0%
4.93%
4.97% 4.74%
4.71%
4.5%
4.86% 4.51%
4.35%
4.01%
4.0%
3.95%
3.99% 3.66%
3.5% 3.0%
2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
4.9% 4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1% 3.8%
3.5%
4.1% 3.7% 3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2% 2.9%
2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2
Long-term mortgage interest rates have steadily decreased over the past year with 30-year fixed rates hovering just above 3.5%, and 15-year fixed rates now below 3%. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.
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Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q2
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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