2011 2013
Quarter QUARTER Quarter
second SECOND second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010
2011
2012
2013
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
January
February
March
Jan
Feb
Mar
April
Apr
May
June July Month
May
Jun
Jul
August
Aug
September October November December
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012 2013
5,068 5,560
5,775 5,911
7,213 7,427
7,698 8,602
9,064 10,383
9,740 10,514
8,664
9,026
7,212
7,258
7,403
6,910
The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 11% higher than the second quarter of 2012. This significant year-over-year increase reflects relatively high sales in May 2013. There were 29,499 home sales in Virginia in the second quarter of 2013, 2,997 more sales than in the second quarter of 2012. April 2013 (+11.7% YOY) had a moderate year-over-year improvement, while May 2013 (+14.6% YOY) showed extremely strong year-over-year gains in home sales. Sales leveled off in June 2013, so July numbers may indicate whether we will continue to see signs of further recovery this year.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
30,000
29,499
+11%
27,733
YOY
26,502 24,906
25,000
24,902 23,001 21,571
20,798 20,000
19,099
18,558 16,541
18,056
18,898
17,105
15,000
10,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter
In the second quarter we experienced a sharp increase in home sales and a significant year-over-year increase. So far this year, sales have surpassed 2010 sales, indicating that the market is performing better on its own than it did with significant tax incentives in 2010.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
95,000
94,870
93,279 91,031
90,703 90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
88,559
87,921
Pos t
91,873
84,194
83,630
Tax -
83,570
84,111
85,062
86,658
RY!
81,367
Cre di
tD
ecl
ine
KE MAR
OVE T REC
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter
Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph highlights that our housing market is performing better than it did in the second quarter of 2010 when the market received a boost from tax incentives. Surpassing market performance in 2010 without the tax credits is an important milestone in Virginia’s market recovery. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q2 figure (94,870 sales) includes home sales from 2012-Q3 through 2013-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over 4 quarters of annualized data.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2 Units
Northern Virginia +12.4% Central Valley +11.4%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +16.2% Southwest Virginia +15.6%
Central Virginia +9.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +9.0%
Southside Virginia +7.8%
Region
2012-Q2
2013-Q2
Change
Central Valley
1,437
1,601
11.4%
Central Virginia
4,210
4,589
9.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,835
6,363
9.0%
Northern Virginia
12,412
13,945
12.4%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,902
2,210
16.2%
Southside Virginia
399
430
7.8%
Southwest Virginia
307
355
15.6%
All of Virginia
26,502
29,493
11.3%
The significant increase in home sales this quarter was experienced throughout the state. Every region saw significant increases in sales. Notably, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg area, the Central Valley and Southside experienced very high sales after a slower first quarter. In addition, the year-over-year increases in these areas are among the highest in the state.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$269,000
$300,000
$232,600
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500 $215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$232,694
$249,900
$239,900
$232,500
$210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$225,000
+7.8%
$200,000
+12.1%
$150,000
$100,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.8% over the past year to $269,000 for all residential sales. This increase represents a strong, steady climb and does not reflect the steep and possibly volatile price increases that have been reported in some parts of the nation. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 12.1% over the past three years, as measured by second quarter sales data.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2
Northern Virginia +8.5% Central Valley +4.8%
Central Virginia +7.8%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +5.1% Southwest Virginia -0.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +3.4%
Southside Virginia -6.8%
Region
2012-Q2
2013-Q2
Change
Central Valley
$210,000
$220,000
4.8%
Central Virginia
$185,500
$200,000
7.8%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$204,900
$211,900
3.4%
Northern Virginia
$355,000
$385,000
8.5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$156,987
$165,000
5.1%
Southside Virginia
$87,500
$81,524
-6.8%
Southwest Virginia
$115,000
$114,000
-0.9%
All of Virginia
$249,500
269,000
7.8%
Nearly every region in Virginia is now experiencing increases in median sales prices. Large numbers of sales mean these numbers reflect the volume of sales in each region. The regions colored in green are experiencing steady increases in price, evidence of a healthy market recovery. Prices in Southwest Virginia may be stabilizing. Southside’s continued decline in prices, despite the market’s continued recovery is evidence of the region’s overall economic context.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
10,000
9,736
18% YOY Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
8,198
8,197
8,000
7,684 7,307 6,789
7,000
6,465
6,410 6,000
5,000
5,446 4,553
5,482
5,275 4,866 4,503
4,000
3,000
2,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2013 ($9.7B) was a strong 18% increase from the second quarter of 2010 ($8.2B). This comparison is important because the 2013 housing market has advanced beyond the 2010 second quarter volume, without the help of the tax credits that boosted the spring 2010 numbers.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
104 100 91 86
Average Days On Market
80
79
100 94
103
93 85
82
84
88
-16%YOY
91
71
60
-10%YOY 40
20
0
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter
Time on market decreased 16% from the second quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the second quarter of 2013 (10% fewer days on the market than the second quarter fo 2010). In June, homes stayed on the market an average of 64 days. The market is moving homes extremely fast, faster than it has since August of 2006.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012-Q2 $2M +
42 52
+24%
$1.5M - $2M
69 89
+29% 302 440
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
+46% 709
$750K - $1M
2013-Q2
990
+40% 2,908
$500K - $750K
+22%
3,555 2,376
$400K - $500K
2,987
+26% 4,007
$300K - $400K
4,657
+16% 5,987
$200K - $300K
6,622
+11% 7,058 +1% 7,127
$100K - $200K 3,048 -2% 2,980
0 - $100K 0
500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Home sales increased in all price ranges, except the $0-$100K range during the second quarter of 2013, as compared to the second quarter of 2012. The decline in the $0-$100K range is likely the result of declining inventory in this range which inflates generally rising home prices. It is very likely that some homes that were previously in the $0-$100K price range have moved up into the $100-$200K range. The ranges from $100K to $400K seem to have stabilized, while the upper end of the market seems to be experiencing a revival. The ranges $750K-$1M and $1M-$1.5M experienced extremely large yearover-year increases in sales, 40% and 46% respectively.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2013-Q1 vs. 2013-Q2
Northern Virginia -8% Central Valley -6%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -3% Southwest Virginia -33%
Central Virginia +25%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1%
Southside Virginia -27%
Region
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
Change
Central Valley
62
58
-6%
Central Virginia
302
377
25%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
498
494
-1%
Northern Virginia
650
595
-8%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
67
65
-3%
Southside Virginia
37
27
-27%
Southwest Virginia
24
16
-33%
All of Virginia
1,640
1,632
0%
Foreclosures held steady in Virginia this quarter. Most regions experienced fewer foreclosures, but Central Virginia experienced a significant spike in foreclosures. If the number of foreclosures continue to decrease throughout 2013, the added inventory from foreclosures will begin to clear.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000 12,000
459,000 399,000
400,000
10,000 8,000 6,000
10,383
9,064
300,000 200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000 0
500,000
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13 (p)
May-13 (p)
0
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both United States (existing home sales only) and Virginia sales continued to increase into the second quarter and experienced a modest year over year increase.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000 $250,000
$267,000
$250,000
$300,000 $250,000
$200,000
$208,700
$200,000
$150,000 $180,200
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13 (p)
May-13 (p)
$50,000
Median sales prices in Virginia have remained more stable than in the United States as a whole. Prices in Virginia have increased slightly more this year (22% from January to May) compared to the US as a whole (19% from January to May), but still basically track the US numbers.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
7.4%
2010-Q1
7.1%
2010-Q2
6.9%
2010-Q3
6.7%
2010-Q4
6.5%
6.4%
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
6.6%
2011-Q3
6.2%
2011-Q4
5.9%
2012-Q1
6.0%
2012-Q2
5.9%
2012-Q3
5.6%
2012-Q4
5.3%
2013-Q1
2013-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2013 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.6 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease into the second quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in May. Virginia’s unemployment remains low despite some economic stressors over second quarter. Although we are not back to prerecession rates, we are well on our way.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
5.5% 5.0%
4.91%
4.5%
4.85% 4.45%
4.66%
4.41%
4.31% 4.01%
4.0%
3.92%
3.80% 3.54%
3.5% 3.0%
3.36%
3.50%
3.69%
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5%
4.1% 3.9%
3.8%
3.9% 3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
3.0% 2.8%
2.5% 2.0%
3.2%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Mortgage interest rates increased slightly in the second quarter of 2013. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low. Since unemployment remains low and interest rates are beginning to rise, some opportunistic buyers may begin to enter the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q2
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15