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VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.
July 2015 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City County, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond County, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin County, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke County, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015
July Market Summary Virginia’s residential real estate market performed very well in July, despite the typical seasonal downturn. Sales increased 13.3% year-over-year, while the median price remained fairly stable. High demand in July is confirmed by the relatively low average days on the market (64 this July), compared to the average of 69 days in July of 2014 and July of 2013. Decreases in month-to-month sales and prices are typical for July. Sales decreased 8% from June to July and median sales price decreased 2.5%, resulting in a corresponding decrease in volume. Virginia can expect similar decreases throughout the winter and into early 2016. Meanwhile, average days on the market are likely to increase with decreased demand in Fall and Winter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015 Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos
14,000 12,529 12,000
11,520 10,643 9,647
Number of Residential Sales
10,000 8,467
+13.3%
10,172
10,277
9,482
9,095 8,354
8,445
8,468
8,295
8,000 6,650 5,777
6,000
6,049
4,000
2,000
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The pace of home sales is slowing as Virginia moves into the second half of the summer selling season. Sales decreased 8% from June to July. In the previous seven years, sales in July were on average 11% lower than sales in June. The decrease from June to July has been small in recent years compared to very large decreases from June to July in 2010-2012, when the market was heavily impacted by the Great Recession. The Virginia residential real estate market continues to perform better than the previous eight years. There was a 13.3% increase in sales year-over-year. July 2015 sales were the most Virginia has seen since 2005, the earliest year we have recorded for this report.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$275,000
$282,120
$275,000
$260,000
$250,112
$245,000
$238,500
$259,170
$250,000
$246,200
$250,000
$262,000
$267,848
$279,900
$264,700
$257,000
$243,000
$232,750
$250,000
$228,380
$250,000
$245,000
$250,000
$250,000
$265,000
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$274,900
$285,000
$350,000
+2.67% $200,000
+0.04%
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$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Median sales price for July 2015 ($275,000) is 2.67% higher than July 2014 ($267,848) and slightly higher than July of 2013 ($274,900). Virginia sale prices continue to follow a historic seasonal trajectory while remaining relatively stable year-over-year. Small increases year-over-year are typical in a healthy market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015 Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
4.50
4.27
4.00
3.86 3.67
3.50
3.38
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
3.14
3.47
+14.2%
3.32 3.10
2.92
3.00 2.73
2.72
2.63
2.58 2.50 2.07 2.00 1.73
1.84
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15 Dec-14 (p)
Jan-15 (p)
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
Jul-15 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 14.2% higher this July than July 2014 due to a combination of slightly higher prices and the 13.3% increase in sales. Days on the market increased in July, while prices decreased, a trend that typically follows decreased demand in late summer. Virginia can expect the typical seasonal decline to continue throughout the fall selling season.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100 91 90
85
85 81
80
74
Average Days On Market
70
69
66
74
77
80 75
74
68
+/-0%
73 67
80
91
82
85 77
76
69 65
66
-7.24%
62
64
60
50
40
30
20
10
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(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Days on the market increased to 64 in July from 62 days in June. Days on the market typically begin to increase in July. Virginia can expect days on the market to increase steadily through January. A decrease in prices, along with increased days on the market, indicate that the for-sale inventory and demand from buyers is generally in sync.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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July 2015
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
5%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
5.6%
6%
5.5%
7%
5.7%
8%
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The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3% in July. The Virginia unemployment rate has not yet been released but the Virginia rate has generally tracks the national rate while performing better overall. We expect the Virginia rate to show little change, based on recent Virginia trends, and the typical correlation between the Virginia unemployment rate and the national rate.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.4% 4.2%
4.13%
4.12%
4.16% 4.04%
4.0%
4.00%
3.98% 3.86%
3.8% 3.6%
3.67%
3.71%
Jan-15
Feb-15
3.77%
4.05%
3.84% 3.67%
3.4% 3.2% 3.0%
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates increased for the third consecutive month in July. Rates are beginning to approach the highs experienced last year but nonetheless remain historically low. As the nation’s economy improves we can expect to see higher interest rates but rate increases are likely to remain gradual.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
July 2015 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 30,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Christine Hodges Chief of Marketing & Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® Christine@VARealtor.com 804-525-2947
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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