速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.
2011 2012
Quarter QUARTER Quarter
Tsecond H I R D second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009
2010
2011
2012
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
8,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
4,000
10,000 2,000
8,000 0 January
February
March
May June July August September October November December Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Month
April
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
6,000
Jan
2009 Jun
2010 Jul
Aug 2011 Sep
2012 Oct
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2009 12,000 4,758
5,391
6,740
7,212
8,096
9,849
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012 4,000
5,067
5,765
7,174
7,651
9,013
9,636
8,535
8,864
6,932
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,0006,000
9,593
8,545
8,018
8,384
Nov
Dec
7,892
6,573
10,000
The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the third quarter of 2012, compared to the same time frame last year. The third quarter of 2011 only marked 23,022 home 2,000 sales while there were 24,331 home sales in the third quarter of 8,000 2012.
+7% YOY
+9% YOY
+0.2% YOY
Looking closer, both July (+7% YOY) and August (+9% YOY) 0 showed strong year-over-year gains inApril home sales 6,000 January February March May -- while June July August September October N September 2012 showed a smaller year-over-year improvement Month (+0.2%). Looking ahead, we are likely to see a strong fourth quarter given low interest rates and comparatively low unemployment rates. 4,000
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733
28,000
26,300
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
26,156 26,000
24,902
24,000
24,331
+6%
22,995
22,849
YOY
22,000 20,798 20,000
19,091
18,558 18,000 16,541
18,006 17,105
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Quarter
When viewed on a quarterly basis, the third quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with a 6% increase in home sales as compared to the third quarter of 2011. This is a significant increase in the pace of home sales in Virginia, and is likely a result of continued low interest rates, and low unemployment rates in the Commonwealth. We are likely to see fewer home sales in the fourth quarter of 2012 as compared to the third quarter, as typically the October through December home sales market is not quite as robust as July through September.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000
95,000
93,279
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
91,051 90,000
90,703 87,921
87,843
ost it Bo
85,000
red
80,000
C Tax
83,630
Pos
t Ta
75,000
84,194
83,560
84,093
84,994
86,392
87,728
81,363
x-C
red
it D
ecl
ine
70,000
! OVERY C E R T MARKE essive 5 Succ Growth! rs of Quarte
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Quarter
When examining long term trends, it seems quite certain that we are finally seeing lasting improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for five quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q3 figure (87,728 sales) includes home sales from 2011-Q4 through 2012-Q3. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3 Units
Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley +10.8%
Central Virginia +7.3% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +5.7% Southwest Virginia -15.2%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +6.5%
Southside Virginia -12.4%
Region
2011-Q3
2012-Q3
Change
Central Valley
1,189
1,317
+10.8%
Central Virginia
3,472
3,725
+7.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,270
5,612
+6.5%
Northern Virginia
10,489
11,110
+5.9%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,778
1,879
+5.7%
Southside Virginia
429
376
-12.4%
Southwest Virginia
361
306
-15.2%
The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lense of year-over-year changes in the pace of home sales. Neary the entire state is experiencing growth in the pace of home sales aside from Southwest Virginia and Southside Virginia. The highest rate of increase in home sales has taken place in the Central Valley (+10.8%) though Central Virginia (+7.3%) and Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay (+6.5%) are not too behind.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$248,000
$249,500
$215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$232,694
$232,500
$249,900
$239,900
$225,000
$225,000
+5.5%
$210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$235,000
$300,000
$200,000
+5.5% $150,000
$100,000 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 5.5% over the past year to $248,900 for all residential sales. This is very close to a tie with 2012-Q2 and 2010-Q3 for the highest price in the past three years. Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 5.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3
Northern Virginia -6.0% Central Valley -0.3%
Central Virginia +1.3% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +0.8% Southwest Virginia -2.2%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +4.5%
Southside Virginia -15.1%
Region
2011-Q3
2012-Q3
Change
Central Valley
$200,000
$199,450
-0.3%
Central Virginia
$185,496
$188,000
+1.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$200,000
$209,000
+4.5%
Northern Virginia
$350,000
$329,000
-6.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$153,750
$155,000
+0.8%
Southside Virginia
$94,250
$80,000
-15.1%
Southwest Virginia
$114,000
$111,500
-2.2%
After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see increases in median sales prices in many regions of Virginia. When comparing the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2011, only Southside Virginia (-15%) and Northern Virginia (-6%) experienced a significant decline in median sales price. Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Road and Central Virginia led the pack in increases in median sales prices (+4.5%, +1.3%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000
8,115
7,625
7,450
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
7,306 7,000
6,787 6,410
6,411 6,000
5,446
5,304 4,849
5,000 4,553
4,503
4,000
3,000
2,000 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Quarter
This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2012 ($7.4B) marks an 9.8% increase from the third quarter of 2011 ($6.8B). This is only the third quarterly increase seen in recent years in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120
104 100
94
91 87
Average Days On Market
80
104 100
84
86 79
93 84
82
82
60
40
20
0 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Quarter
The average time to market and sell a house has decreased 12% over the past year to an average of 82 days. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q3 26 +54% 40
$2M +
66 +3% 64
$1.5M - $2M
241 +27% 305
$1M - $1.5M
650 -4% 627
$750K - $1M
Price Range
2012-Q3
2,133 +13% 2,418
$500K - $750K
1,904 +16% 2,203
$400K - $500K
3,218
$300K - $400K
3,664
+14% 5,241
$200K - $300K
5,661
+8% 6,528 -1% 6,464
$100K - $200K 2,987 -3% 2,885
0 - $100K 0
500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Home sales increased in most price ranges during the third quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the third quarter of 2011. Of note, the most affordable price range (under $100K) was one of the only price range to experience a significant decline in sales pace. This may be the result of overall increases in median sales prices which would be moving some under $100K properties up into the $100K - $200K price range.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2012-Q2 vs. 2012-Q3
Northern Virginia -16% Central Valley +2%
Central Virginia +1% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +10% Southwest Virginia -6%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -5%
Southside Virginia +14%
Region
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
Change
Central Valley
92
94
+2%
Central Virginia
408
412
+1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
551
521
-5%
Northern Virginia
974
818
-16%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
157
172
+10%
Southside Virginia
55
63
+14%
Southwest Virginia
32
30
-6%
All of Virginia
2,269
2,110
-7%
Foreclosure rates in the Commonwealth of Virginia dropped 7% between 2012-Q2 and 2012-Q3. These declines in foreclosures did not affect all regions of the state equally, as Northern Virginia experienced a 16% decline but Southside Virginia experienced a 14% increase in foreclosures. Most regions of the state experienced a decline in foreclosures or a negligible change in the metric.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000 12,000
477,000 429,000
400,000
10,000 8,000 6,000
500,000
8,864
8,125
300,000 200,000
4,000 100,000
2,000 0
0 Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. August 2012 home sales increased 11% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to August 2011, while Virginia experienced a 9% increase.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000 $250,000
$247,950
$240,000
$240,000 $220,000 $200,000
$200,000 $187,400
$150,000 $171,200
$180,000 $160,000 $140,000
$100,000
$120,000
$50,000
$100,000 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (August 2011 to August 2012), though home values increased more significantly in Virginia (+9% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+3%).
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
6.9%
7.0%
7.4%
7.0% 6.5%
6.4%
6.3%
6.5% 6.0%
6.1% 5.6%
5.6%
5.9%
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
2012-Q2 unemployment rate based on preliminary May 2012 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.1 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
While it has edged up slightly to 5.9%, Virginia’s unemployment rate is still at the third lowest level over the last three years, and Virginia is currently for 10th for low unemployment rates in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0%
5.06%
4.93%
4.97% 4.74%
4.5%
4.71%
4.86% 4.51%
4.35%
4.01%
4.0%
3.95%
3.99% 3.66%
3.5%
3.40%
3.0% 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1% 3.8%
3.5%
4.1% 3.7% 3.3%
3.0%
3.2% 3.0%
2.9%
2.7%
2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
New records were created in 2012-Q3 with long-term mortgage interest rates steadily decreasing now down to 3.4% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and only 2.7% for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.
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Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2012-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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