速速 速 Published by Virginia association ofof reaLtors ,, the advocate for Published byby Virginia association reaLtors the advocate forfor Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate real estate professionals and property owners inin Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
2011
Quarter Quarter
second THIRD second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2008
2009
2010
2011
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
8,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
Number of Single Family, Townhome andNumber Condo Sales of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,0006,000
4,000
10,000 2,000
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends
8,000
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
2008 12,000 6,000
July Month2009
August
September October
2010
November December
2011
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
4,823
5,776
7,325
8,047
8,881
9,742
9,474
8,894
8,072
7,418
5,543
6,680
2009
4,758
5,391
6,740
7,212
8,096
9,849
9,593
8,545
8,018
8,384
7,892
6,573
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
4,699
5,105
7,081
6,649
8,081
9,120
7,867
7,998
6,640
10,000 2011 4,000
Residential home sales in Virginia increased significantly during the third quarter of 2011 as compared to 2010. Sales increased 8,000 2,000 by 10% in July, 11% in August and 3% in September. In many ways, this is a welcome positive trend in the residential home sales market. Third quarter home sales increased 8% over 2010.
▲10%
6,000 It is0important to realize, however, that home sales during the third quarter of last year were in some April ways artifically January February March May deflated June July by the federal home buyer tax credits that were available to homeMonth
▲11%
▲3%
August
September October
buyers during the first six months of 2010. When these tax credits expired, the real estate market 4,000 slowed considerably -- and that slowing took place in the third and fourth quarters of 2010.
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2,000
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N
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733 26,440
26,156 25,157
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
25,000
23,850 22,849
22,505 20,774
20,000
19,641 18,513 16,889
16,541
16,885
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Quarter
Virginia residential home sales showed a strong improvement (+8%) between the third quarter of 2010 (20,774 sales) and the third quarter of 2011 (22,505). Some will note that this comparative increase in home sales during the third quarter of 2011 may partially be the result of abnormally low sales during the third quarter of 2010. The federal home buyer tax credit ended mid-2010, resulting in a slower third quarter last year. As we conclude 2011 and head into 2012, Virginia’s housing market will likely be strengthened by low interest rates, rising residential rental rates, pent-up demand, and an improving household balance sheet based on increases in household saving habits. Despite these tailwinds, however, a return to stability in the housing market may be slowed by employment trends, low consumer confidence, tight lending and underwriting standards and significant policy issues. Recent policy decisions or discussions that could impact Virginia’s housing market include a possible elimination of the mortgage interest deduction, GSE reform, changes in FHA loan limits and a new QRM proposal (Qualified Residential Mortgage) that would require lenders to retain 5 percent of the value of the loans they originate (excluding Fannie and Freddie) unless the borrowers have a 20% down payment.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000
95,000
93,279
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
90,894 90,000
90,675
89,640
91,051 88,127
90,703 87,897
87,843
85,000
83,561
83,905 81,753 80,022
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2011-Q3 figure includes home sales from 2010-Q4 through 2011-Q3. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market. The annualized rate of home sales in Virginia has only fallen 10% over the past three years, which overall, is not a significant decline. The federal home buyer tax credit in late 2009 and early 2010 started to breathe life back into the real estate market, but buyer activity quickly faded in the 3rd (and then 4th) quarter of 2010 after that incentive had passed. Of note, the annualized pace of home sales has increased over the past three months, from 80,022 sales in the second quarter of 2011 to 81,753 sales in the third quarter of 2011.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Regional Changes in Sales 2010-Q3 vs. 2011-Q3 Units
Northern Virginia -2.1% Central Valley +10.3%
Greater Richmond +16.5% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +25.5% Southwest Virginia +44.6%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +18.9%
Southside Virginia +29.3%
Region
2010-Q3
2011-Q3
Change
Central Valley
1,050
1,158
+10.3%
Greater Richmond
2,878
3,353
+16.5%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
4,383
5,211
+18.9%
Northern Virginia
10,468
10,245
-2.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,403
1,761
+25.5%
Southside Virginia
324
419
+29.3%
Southwest Virginia
242
350
+44.6%
Nearly every region in Virginia witnessed an increase in the pace of home sales when comparing the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2010. Increases in the pace of home sales ranged from 10% in the Central Valley to an increase of 45% in Southwest Virginia. The Northern Virginia area was the only area showing a (slight) decrease in home sales -- of 2.1% as compared to one year ago.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$235,000
$234,900 $210,000
$233,000
$249,900
$239,900
$225,000
$225,839
$229,900
$229,900
$229,000
$216,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$246,500
$300,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Quarter
Home values in Virginia inched slightly upward in the third quarter of 2011 to a median price of $235,000. If we put this into the context of 2009 home sales we find that home sales prices also stayed quite stable between the second quarter and third quarter of 2009. Home values in Virginia have only fallen 4.6% percent over the past three years, which is extraordinary, given the larger adjustments in home values seen in some other parts of the country. We will likely not see an increase in median home values until we start to see an overall increase in buyer demand via an increased pace of home sales. It is encouraging, however, to see that the median sales price has remained relatively steady over the past several months after a significant increase over the first quarter of this year.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2010-Q3 vs. 2011-Q3
Northern Virginia +1.1% Central Valley -7.2%
Greater Richmond -6.0% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -6.1% Southwest Virginia -5.2%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -9.8%
Southside Virginia +15.9%
Region
2010-Q3
2011-Q3
Change
Central Valley
$215,600
$200,000
-7.2%
Greater Richmond
$197,250
$185,471
-6.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$221,715
$200,000
-9.8%
Northern Virginia
$322,500
$326,000
+1.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$165,000
$154,950
-6.1%
Southside Virginia
$82,000
$95,000
+15.9%
Southwest Virginia
$121,300
$115,000
-5.2%
Northern Virginia continues to see gradual growth in home values with a 1% increase as compared to median home values one year prior. Southside Virginia also has seen stability in pricing with a 16% increase, even though that leaves their new median home value at just $95,000. All other areas of Virginia witnessed declines in median home values from a decline of 5.2% (Southwest Virginia) to a more significant decline of 9.8% in the Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay region of Virginia.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000
8,000
8,198
8,005 7,625 7,182
7,033
7,000 Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
6,411 6,000
6,621
6,402
5,585
5,433
5,000 4,416
4,553
4,479
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Quarter
This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. Virginia’s housing market has seen a 17% decline in residential sales volume over the past three years. This decline is based not just on the lower number of homes being sold over time, but also the price adjustments during the same time. The decline has been more modest in recent history, with an actual increase between the second quarter of 2011 and the end of the third quarter of 2011.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108 103 100
99
100 96 91 87
84
91
86 79
80
Average Days On Market
92
81
60
40
20
0 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Quarter
When looking at a three year history, the average time to market and sell a house has not experienced much of a change – from an average of 99 days in the third quarter of 2008 to 91 days in the third quarter of 2011. The average speed of home sales has in fact increased. Of note, this metric of average days on market did dip remarkably low to only 79 days on the market in second quarter 2010 – again, timed with two of the expirations dates of the federal home buyer tax credit. The fact that the average days on market continues to decline is an indication that we may be headed towards better times in Virginia’s housing market.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010-Q3 34 -26% 25
$2M +
54 +15% 62
$1.5M - $2M
258 -10% 232
$1M - $1.5M
561 +12% 628
$750K - $1M
Price Range
2011-Q3
2,124 -2% 2,075
$500K - $750K
1,764 +5% 1,847
$400K - $500K
3,213 -2% 3,137
$300K - $400K
4,901 +5% 5,165
$200K - $300K
5,612
$100K - $200K
+14% 6,420
2,230
0 - $100K
2,914 0
1,000
+31%
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
6,000
7,000
Home sales in Virginia in all price ranges under $300,000 showed an increase in the third quarter of 2011 as compared to one year prior in the third quarter of 2010. This is an important indicator of market stabilization, as most often these lower price ranges must recover first in order to have buyers then move up to their next home. Examining all price ranges, there was hardly a price range that witnessed a significant decrease in home sales. The $1M - $1.5M range saw a 10% decline in sales, and sales of homes over $2M decreased by 26%.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2011-Q2 vs. 2011-Q3
Northern Virginia +1.8% Central Valley +28.6%
Greater Richmond +13.9% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +19.4% Southwest Virginia -43%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -4.3%
Southside Virginia +21.7%
Region
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
Change
Central Valley
308
396
+28.6%
Greater Richmond
2,060
2,347
+13.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
3,426
3,279
-4.3%
Northern Virginia
5,744
5,850
+1.8%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
397
474
+19.4%
Southside Virginia
198
241
+21.7%
Southwest Virginia
142
81
-43.0%
All of Virginia
12,275
12,668
+3.2%
Overall, Virginia witnessed an increase in foreclosures when comparing the third quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2011. It is important to note that some areas (Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay, Southwest Virginia) continued to see declines (-4.3%, -43%) in foreclosure rates despite the fact that other areas experienced an increase in foreclosures.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 700,000
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000
502,000
500,000
414,000
400,000
8,000 6,000
600,000
7,998
7,210
300,000 200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000 0
0 Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both Virginia and the United States experienced a decline in home sales between June 2011 and June 2011 and then increased again in August 2011. Based on data from one year ago, we will likely now see a decline in the price of home sales for the next several months.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000
$240,000
$250,000
$239,000
$250,000
$220,000 $200,000
$200,000
$180,000
$150,000 $177,300
$168,300
$160,000 $140,000
$100,000
$120,000
$50,000
$100,000 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11
Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
While median home prices have declined in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (August 2010 to August 2011), it seems that home values may be recovering in Virginia more quickly than in the United States as a whole. The United States median sales price declined by 5.2% over the past year while the Virginia median sales price decreased by only 4.4%.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 7%
6.7%
7.2%
6.9%
7.0%
7.4%
7.0%
6%
6.4%
6.3%
6.0%
5.1%
5% 4%
6.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3% 2% 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2011 (U.S. rate = 9.1 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rates have been steadily declining for more than a year now, from 7.4% in the first quarter of 2010 down to the current level of 6.0%. While it may be quite some time until Virginia reaches returns to an unemployment rate as low as 4.0% (as in 2008-Q2), it is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market. Of note, Virginia continues to fare quite well as compared to other states across the United States, as only nine states have lower unemployment rates than Virginia.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.5% 6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.4%
5.3%
5.0%
5.1%
5.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.5%
4.7%
4.7%
4.9% 4.5%
4.4%
4.0%
4.0% 3.5% 3.0%
2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%
5.6% 5.0%
4.9% 4.6%
4.5%
4.0%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1% 3.8%
3.5%
4.1% 3.7% 3.3%
3.0% 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3
Mortgage interest rates have remained extraordinarily low over the past three years --- with 30 year rates dipping down to only 4.0% during the past several months, and the average 15 year rate falling to only 3.3% in the second qutarter of 2011. Interest rates will likely stay below 6% for the foreseeable future, though they may start to increase as we continue throughout 2011.
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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2011-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Greater Richmond:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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