2018 Annual Report
Greater Eastside and Seattle Metro
In our dynamic Real Estate market, VDB | Compass’s decades of experience will be your greatest advantage. Today’s real estate market is no place for the novice or inexperienced, you need a trustworthy advocate. For more than 28 years, I have built a reputation as a national expert in real estate. I have a consistent record of being a five-star rated agent, in the top half percentile of all agents in the country. As Compass’ Sr. Founding Broker in Seattle, I partner with the largest independent brokerage in the country to elevate the home buying and selling experience. My team, VDB | Compass, is comprised of established, service-driven professionals who have proven their ability to get the job done. Whether it’s managing a small task or negotiating a multi-million-dollar contract, we approach each with uncompromising integrity, the hallmark of our stellar reputation. For market insights in your area, I’ve included a brief recap of the 2018 Luxury Residential Real Estate activity. I hope to have the opportunity to represent you in 2019!
Mark von der Burg Sr. Compass Founding Broker | Seattle
VDB | Compass Market Report
Greater Eastside* Average Active Prices
Homes For Sale
700
$3m
626 Homes $2.5m
600
$2.24m
$2.41m $1.95 $1.95m
500
$2m
$1.89m $1.5m
$1.37m $1.37m
$1.25m
400
384 Homes $1.29m
300
$1.36 $1.36m
$1m
200
199 Homes $500K
162 Homes
100
0
$0 2017
2018
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Median Sold Prices
2018 Eastside Market Review The Eastside housing market is shifting, transitioning
are cautious due to political volatility and uncertainty
towards a balanced market. There are a multitude of
around government economic policy, putting a damper
factors affecting this change, several worth noting. First,
on luxury purchases. Additionally, foreign investment
inventory levels are at their highest since 2008/2009.
is down substantially compared to 2016/2017, due to
From January to September last year, the number of
international government restrictions. This has especially
homes for sale shot up 214% and ended the year up
impacted the Eastside, where foreign buyers have
66%. While there were more available homes, Buyers
contributed significantly to the Buyer pool in the last 5 years.
2018 Quarterly Inventory* Q1
221 Homes For Sale Ç 23% vs Q1 2017
Q2
409 Homes For Sale Ç 57% vs Q2 2017
Q3
587 Homes For Sale Ç 77% vs Q3 2017
Q4
481 Homes For Sale Ç 91% vs Q4 2017
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Quaterly inventory data represents the average number of homes for sale. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Eastside Community Insights 2018 Absorption Rates West Bellevue
The Absorption Rate is the rate at which homes
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
sell in a specific market over a given period of time. Absorption Rates reveal three different types
16%
of real estate markets: Seller’s Market, Neutral
33%
Market or Buyer’s Market. Across all seven focused areas on the Eastside, the numbers indicate that 2018 remained a Seller’s Market, on average, with tremendous shifts in the second half towards a
0%
Neutral (balanced) Market. Redmond ranked first in
35% È 35% off from 2017 Current SELLER’S MARKET
terms of the highest annual percentage decrease in Absorption Rate, ending the year 43% down compared to 2017. *Absorption Rate: Number of properties sold in a given month divided by number of homes for sale. Buyer’s Market
Neutral Market
100%
Seller’s Market
78
312
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç30% vs 2017
È 17% vs 2017
Eastside/South of I-90
Redmond
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
53% È 29% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET
33%
0%
100%
70% È 43% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET
71
401
33
401
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç48% vs 2017
È 2% vs 2017
Ç17% vs 2017
Ç17% vs 2017
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. The Absorption Rate and Homes For Sale data points represent 2018’s monthly average. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Woodinville
Sammamish
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
33%
0%
42% È 28% off from 2017
100%
51% È 35% off from 2017
SELLER’S MARKET
SELLER’S MARKET
45
220
118
672
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç106% vs 2017
Ç50% vs 2017
Ç85% vs 2017
Ç14% vs 2017
Bridle Trails
Kirkland
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
16%
33%
0%
100%
45% È 35% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET
33%
0%
100%
59% È 20% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET
15
74
56
368
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç45% vs 2017
È 13% vs 2017
Ç44% vs 2017
Ç10% vs 2017
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. The Absorption Rate and Homes For Sale data points represent 2018’s monthly average. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Greater Eastside Price Per Square Foot
Ç5%
$800
$674
$640
Ç11%
Ç16%
$600
Ç5% $400
$398
Ç12% $378
Ç11%
$524 $476
$399
$387
$369
$475
$342
Ç8% $340
$325
$309
$200
$0 Eastside/ South of I-90
West Bellevue
Sammamish
Redmond
Kirkland
Bridle Trails
Woodinville
2018 Price Per Square Foot 2017 Price Per Square Foot
Price per square foot comparison of Eastside Communities
Ç16% Bridle Trails had the greatest increase in Price Per Square Foot.
For the overall Eastside* market, the Average Price Per Square Foot (PPSF) in 2018 was up 10-11%. PPSF peaked in April at $471 and declined 8.4% to end the year at $431. Note: The 16% increase for Bridle Trails is due to a lack of volume.
*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
VDB | Compass Market Report
Seattle Metro* Average Active Prices
Number of Homes For Sale
$3m
180
154 Homes $2.5m
160
$2.35m 140
$2.05m $2m
$2.07m $1.49m
92 Homes
$1.37m $1.37m
$1.5m
120
$2.01m
100
$1.43 $1.43m 80 $1.21m
$1m
$500K
40
43 Homes
38 Homes
60
20 0
$0 2017
2018
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Homes For Sale
Avg. Active Prices
Median Sold Prices
2018 Quarterly Inventory* Q1
75
121
Q2
Q3
176
Q4
137
Homes For Sale
Homes For Sale
Homes For Sale
Homes For Sale
Ç 44% vs Q1 2017
Ç 31% vs Q2 2017
Ç 64% vs Q3 2017
Ç 62% vs Q4 2017
2018 Seattle Market Review The deceleration in Seattle’s real estate market wasn’t as
the Seattle Metro residential market has a local
sharp as the Eastside’s decline. Volume was significantly
and Tech-based demographic, less impacted by
lower and inventory increases had less effect on prices,
international investment, which is another reason
despite a 258% increase in inventory from January to
the correction wasn’t as dramatic. Looking forward,
September. (The average active price came down only
market conditions are favorable, provided Tech
3% from January to September.) Historically speaking,
growth continues its upward trend.
*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. zip codes include: 98122, 98112, 98102, 98109, 98119, 98199, 98105, 98103, 98107. Quaterly inventory data represents the average number of homes for sale. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
Seattle Community Insights 2018 Absorption Rates* Absorption Rate Defined: Number of properties
Buyer’s Market
sold divided by number of homes for sale.
Neutral Market
Central Seattle*
Laurelhurst / Windermere
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
33%
0%
16%
100%
Seller’s Market
33%
0%
100%
54% È 33% off from 2017
83% È 29% off from 2017
SELLER’S MARKET
SELLER’S MARKET
27
172
7
67
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç48% vs 2017
Ç17% vs 2017
Ç9% vs 2017
È 6% vs 2017
Queen Anne / Magnolia
Ballard / Green Lake
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
Absorption Rate (closed sales)
16%
16%
33%
0%
100%
63% È 16% off from 2017 371 53 SELLER’S MARKET
33%
0%
100%
85% È 39% off from 2017 414 43 SELLER’S MARKET
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Homes For Sale*
Total Homes Sold
Ç38% vs 2017
Ç9% vs 2017
Ç96% vs 2017
Ç26% vs 2017
*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Included neighborhoods for Central Seattle: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Price per square foot comparison of Seattle Communities
Ç11%
For the overall Seattle* market, the Average Price Per Square Foot was up 6% compared to last 2017. Prices peaked in June at $567 and decreased 10% to end the year at $511.
Central Seattle had the greatest increase in Price Per Square Foot. Price Per Square Foot
$800
Ç 11%
$600
Ç 4%
Ç 4%
$619
Ç 6%
$559 $522
$500
$471
$549
$527
$445
$400
$200
$0 Central Seattle*
Queen Anne &
Ballard, Greenlake &
Laurelhurst &
Magnolia
Greenwood
Windermere
2018 Price Per Square Foot
2017 Price Per Square Foot
*Central Seattle included neighborhoods: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Eastside Condominiums* Condo Market Review West Bellevue and Kirkland condo inventory spiked in September 2018, increasing 5 times since January. This high inventory level led to a drop in average active prices of approximately 33%. Median sold prices remained fairly unchanged throughout the year with minor fluctuations. As a whole, 2018 was a Seller’s Market with Absorption Rates ending the year at 83%, up 6% compared to last year. Despite that fact, Absorption Rates have been declining 15% per month since February, which indicates the market is trending towards a Neutral Market. This rebalancing will most likely continue as we move into 2019. Look for new projects... One88, Mira Flats and Avenue Bellevue.
Downtown Bellevue Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community
Number Sold
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
West Bellevue (All)
164 È 4% $768 Ç 19%
16 days È 27
Bellevue Towers
36 Ç 16% $992 Ç 36%
23 days unchanged
Washington Square
34 È 8% $787 Ç 10%
32 days È 343
One Lincoln
5 Ç 66% $1,150 Ç 28% 16 days È 28
One Main
3 Ç 200% $863 Ç 24%
20 days Ç 6
Bellevue Pacific Tower
7 È 22% $602 Ç 13%
24 days È 81
Kirkland Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017)
233
$596 Avg. Price Per Ft
Avg. Days on Market
23
84%
Ç35%
Ç9%
È8
Ç4%
Total Condos Sold
Absorption Rate
*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98004, 98039 & 98033. Statistics do not include presales. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Seattle Condominiums* Seattle Metro Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community
Number Sold
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
Downtown Seattle (All)
609 Ç20%
$804 Ç 6%
30 days Ç 3
Escala
25 Ç 19%
$858 È 5%
57 days Ç 36
Insignia
44 È 14%
$1,098 È 12%
35 days Ç 10
Olive 8
10
$1,075 Ç 22%
38 days Ç 8
Luma
10 Ç 100%
$956 unchanged
18 days Ç 5
Fifteen Twenty-One
9 È 18%
$1,451 Ç 1%
103 days Ç 63
2200 Westlake
15
$838
33 days
Enso
10 Ç 25%
unchanged
È 6%
Ç 6%
$885 È 1%
Ç3
27 days Ç 8
Upcoming Projects Condos are back! Developers are seeing a demand for centrally located, walkable urban living as the Millennial generation gains momentum and Baby Boomers continue to downsize. Spire, Koda, First Light, and The Emerald are several large projects underway in Seattle.
Spire | Koda | First Light | The Emerald
*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98101, 98102, 98104, 98109, 98121, 98122. Statistics do not include presales. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.
VDB | Compass Market Report
Waterfront* Waterfront Market Review Over the last 4 years, Waterfront sales on the Eastside have averaged 23 sales per year, according to the NWMLS. In 2018, there were 17 sales, a decline from 27 in 2017. The good news for Sellers is values are up 43%, according to average Price Per Square Foot. Waterfront properties typically have a slower turnover rate than non-waterfront properties, so we expect these trends to continue for 2019.
Lake Washington Single Family Residential | Price Range: $2M+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community
Median Sold Price
Seattle
$4,595,000 È 30% 6 Ç 2
Eastside
$6,500,000 Ç 28% 17 È 10 $1,886 Ç 43% 96 days È 53
Mercer Island
$4,850,000 Ç 18%
Number Sold
17 È 7
Avg Price / SF (Sold)
Avg Days on Market
$1,011 È 25% 78 days È 83
$1,089 Ç 9% 132 days È 2
*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $2M+ from I-90 to West of Market in Kirkland, Mercer Island and I-90 to Windermere, including niehgborhoods: Leschi, Madrona, Madison Park, Denny Blaine, Washington Park & Laurelhurst. Properties with shared waterfront and not located directly on Lake Washington weren’t included in our data. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from NWMLS data.
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