End of Year 2018 - Market Review

2018 Annual Report

Greater Eastside and Seattle Metro

In our dynamic Real Estate market, VDB | Compass’s decades of experience will be your greatest advantage.

Today’s real estate market is no place for the novice or inexperienced, you need a trustworthy advocate. For more than 28 years, I have built a reputation as a national expert in real estate. I have a consistent record of being a five-star rated agent, in the top half percentile of all agents in the country. As Compass’ Sr. Founding Broker in Seattle, I partner with the largest independent brokerage in the country to elevate the home buying and selling experience. My team, VDB | Compass, is comprised of established, service-driven professionals who have proven their ability to get the job done. Whether it’s managing a small task or negotiating a multi-million-dollar contract, we approach each with uncompromising integrity, the hallmark of our stellar reputation.

For market insights in your area, I’ve included a brief recap of the 2018 Luxury Residential Real Estate activity. I hope to have the opportunity to represent you in 2019!

Mark von der Burg Sr. Compass Founding Broker | Seattle

VDB | Compass Market Report

Greater Eastside* Average Active Prices

Homes For Sale

700

$3m

626 Homes $2.5m

600

$2.24m

$2.41m $1.95 $1.95m

500

$2m

$1.89m $1.5m

$1.37m $1.37m

$1.25m

400

384 Homes $1.29m

300

$1.36 $1.36m

$1m

200

199 Homes $500K

162 Homes

100

0

$0 2017

2018

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Median Sold Prices

2018 Eastside Market Review The Eastside housing market is shifting, transitioning

are cautious due to political volatility and uncertainty

towards a balanced market. There are a multitude of

around government economic policy, putting a damper

factors affecting this change, several worth noting. First,

on luxury purchases. Additionally, foreign investment

inventory levels are at their highest since 2008/2009.

is down substantially compared to 2016/2017, due to

From January to September last year, the number of

international government restrictions. This has especially

homes for sale shot up 214% and ended the year up

impacted the Eastside, where foreign buyers have

66%. While there were more available homes, Buyers

contributed significantly to the Buyer pool in the last 5 years.

2018 Quarterly Inventory* Q1

221 Homes For Sale Ç 23% vs Q1 2017

Q2

409 Homes For Sale Ç 57% vs Q2 2017

Q3

587 Homes For Sale Ç 77% vs Q3 2017

Q4

481 Homes For Sale Ç 91% vs Q4 2017

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Quaterly inventory data represents the average number of homes for sale. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Eastside Community Insights 2018 Absorption Rates West Bellevue

The Absorption Rate is the rate at which homes

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

sell in a specific market over a given period of time. Absorption Rates reveal three different types

16%

of real estate markets: Seller’s Market, Neutral

33%

Market or Buyer’s Market. Across all seven focused areas on the Eastside, the numbers indicate that 2018 remained a Seller’s Market, on average, with tremendous shifts in the second half towards a

0%

Neutral (balanced) Market. Redmond ranked first in

35% È 35% off from 2017 Current SELLER’S MARKET

terms of the highest annual percentage decrease in Absorption Rate, ending the year 43% down compared to 2017. *Absorption Rate: Number of properties sold in a given month divided by number of homes for sale.

Buyer’s Market

Neutral Market

100%

Seller’s Market

78

312

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç30% vs 2017

È 17% vs 2017

Eastside/South of I-90

Redmond

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

53% È 29% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET

33%

0%

100%

70% È 43% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET

71

401

33

401

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç48% vs 2017

È 2% vs 2017

Ç17% vs 2017

Ç17% vs 2017

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. The Absorption Rate and Homes For Sale data points represent 2018’s monthly average.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Woodinville

Sammamish

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

33%

0%

42% È 28% off from 2017

100%

51% È 35% off from 2017

SELLER’S MARKET

SELLER’S MARKET

45

220

118

672

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç106% vs 2017

Ç50% vs 2017

Ç85% vs 2017

Ç14% vs 2017

Bridle Trails

Kirkland

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

16%

33%

0%

100%

45% È 35% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET

33%

0%

100%

59% È 20% off from 2017 SELLER’S MARKET

15

74

56

368

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç45% vs 2017

È 13% vs 2017

Ç44% vs 2017

Ç10% vs 2017

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. The Absorption Rate and Homes For Sale data points represent 2018’s monthly average.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Greater Eastside Price Per Square Foot

Ç5%

$800

$674

$640

Ç11%

Ç16%

$600

Ç5% $400

$398

Ç12% $378

Ç11%

$524 $476

$399

$387

$369

$475

$342

Ç8% $340

$325

$309

$200

$0 Eastside/ South of I-90

West Bellevue

Sammamish

Redmond

Kirkland

Bridle Trails

Woodinville

2018 Price Per Square Foot 2017 Price Per Square Foot

Price per square foot comparison of Eastside Communities

Ç16% Bridle Trails had the greatest increase in Price Per Square Foot.

For the overall Eastside* market, the Average Price Per Square Foot (PPSF) in 2018 was up 10-11%. PPSF peaked in April at $471 and declined 8.4% to end the year at $431.

Note: The 16% increase for Bridle Trails is due to a lack of volume.

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

VDB | Compass Market Report

Seattle Metro* Average Active Prices

Number of Homes For Sale

$3m

180

154 Homes $2.5m

160

$2.35m 140

$2.05m $2m

$2.07m $1.49m

92 Homes

$1.37m $1.37m

$1.5m

120

$2.01m

100

$1.43 $1.43m 80 $1.21m

$1m

$500K

40

43 Homes

38 Homes

60

20 0

$0 2017

2018

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Median Sold Prices

2018 Quarterly Inventory* Q1

75

121

Q2

Q3

176

Q4

137

Homes For Sale

Homes For Sale

Homes For Sale

Homes For Sale

Ç 44% vs Q1 2017

Ç 31% vs Q2 2017

Ç 64% vs Q3 2017

Ç 62% vs Q4 2017

2018 Seattle Market Review The deceleration in Seattle’s real estate market wasn’t as

the Seattle Metro residential market has a local

sharp as the Eastside’s decline. Volume was significantly

and Tech-based demographic, less impacted by

lower and inventory increases had less effect on prices,

international investment, which is another reason

despite a 258% increase in inventory from January to

the correction wasn’t as dramatic. Looking forward,

September. (The average active price came down only

market conditions are favorable, provided Tech

3% from January to September.) Historically speaking,

growth continues its upward trend.

*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. zip codes include: 98122, 98112, 98102, 98109, 98119, 98199, 98105, 98103, 98107. Quaterly inventory data represents the average number of homes for sale. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Seattle Community Insights 2018 Absorption Rates* Absorption Rate Defined: Number of properties

Buyer’s Market

sold divided by number of homes for sale.

Neutral Market

Central Seattle*

Laurelhurst / Windermere

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

Seller’s Market

33%

0%

100%

54% È 33% off from 2017

83% È 29% off from 2017

SELLER’S MARKET

SELLER’S MARKET

27

172

7

67

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç48% vs 2017

Ç17% vs 2017

Ç9% vs 2017

È 6% vs 2017

Queen Anne / Magnolia

Ballard / Green Lake

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

16%

33%

0%

100%

63% È 16% off from 2017 371 53 SELLER’S MARKET

33%

0%

100%

85% È 39% off from 2017 414 43 SELLER’S MARKET

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç38% vs 2017

Ç9% vs 2017

Ç96% vs 2017

Ç26% vs 2017

*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Included neighborhoods for Central Seattle: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Price per square foot comparison of Seattle Communities

Ç11%

For the overall Seattle* market, the Average Price Per Square Foot was up 6% compared to last 2017. Prices peaked in June at $567 and decreased 10% to end the year at $511.

Central Seattle had the greatest increase in Price Per Square Foot.

Price Per Square Foot

$800

Ç 11%

$600

Ç 4%

Ç 4%

$619

Ç 6%

$559 $522

$500

$471

$549

$527

$445

$400

$200

$0 Central Seattle*

Queen Anne &

Ballard, Greenlake &

Laurelhurst &

Magnolia

Greenwood

Windermere

2018 Price Per Square Foot

2017 Price Per Square Foot

*Central Seattle included neighborhoods: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Eastside Condominiums* Condo Market Review West Bellevue and Kirkland condo inventory spiked in September 2018, increasing 5 times since January. This high inventory level led to a drop in average active prices of approximately 33%.

Median sold prices remained fairly unchanged throughout the year with minor fluctuations. As a whole, 2018 was a Seller’s Market with Absorption Rates ending the year at 83%, up 6% compared to last year. Despite that fact, Absorption Rates have been declining 15% per month since February, which indicates the market is trending towards a Neutral Market. This rebalancing will most likely continue as we move into 2019. Look for new projects... One88, Mira Flats and Avenue Bellevue.

Downtown Bellevue Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community

Number Sold

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

West Bellevue (All)

164 È 4% $768 Ç 19%

16 days È 27

Bellevue Towers

36 Ç 16% $992 Ç 36%

23 days unchanged

Washington Square

34 È 8% $787 Ç 10%

32 days È 343

One Lincoln

5 Ç 66% $1,150 Ç 28% 16 days È 28

One Main

3 Ç 200% $863 Ç 24%

20 days Ç 6

Bellevue Pacific Tower

7 È 22% $602 Ç 13%

24 days È 81

Kirkland Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017)

233

$596 Avg. Price Per Ft

Avg. Days on Market

23

84%

Ç35%

Ç9%

È8

Ç4%

Total Condos Sold

Absorption Rate

*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98004, 98039 & 98033. Statistics do not include presales.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Seattle Condominiums* Seattle Metro Condominiums | Price Range: $600K+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community

Number Sold

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

Downtown Seattle (All)

609 Ç20%

$804 Ç 6%

30 days Ç 3

Escala

25 Ç 19%

$858 È 5%

57 days Ç 36

Insignia

44 È 14%

$1,098 È 12%

35 days Ç 10

Olive 8

10

$1,075 Ç 22%

38 days Ç 8

Luma

10 Ç 100%

$956 unchanged

18 days Ç 5

Fifteen Twenty-One

9 È 18%

$1,451 Ç 1%

103 days Ç 63

2200 Westlake

15

$838

33 days

Enso

10 Ç 25%

unchanged

È 6%

Ç 6%

$885 È 1%

Ç3

27 days Ç 8

Upcoming Projects Condos are back! Developers are seeing a demand for centrally located, walkable urban living as the Millennial generation gains momentum and Baby Boomers continue to downsize. Spire, Koda, First Light, and The Emerald are several large projects underway in Seattle.

Spire | Koda | First Light | The Emerald

*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98101, 98102, 98104, 98109, 98121, 98122. Statistics do not include presales.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

VDB | Compass Market Report

Waterfront* Waterfront Market Review Over the last 4 years, Waterfront sales on the Eastside have averaged 23 sales per year, according to the NWMLS. In 2018, there were 17 sales, a decline from 27 in 2017. The good news for Sellers is values are up 43%, according to average Price Per Square Foot. Waterfront properties typically have a slower turnover rate than non-waterfront properties, so we expect these trends to continue for 2019.

Lake Washington Single Family Residential | Price Range: $2M+ (2018 Compared to 2017) Community

Median Sold Price

Seattle

$4,595,000 È 30% 6 Ç 2

Eastside

$6,500,000 Ç 28% 17 È 10 $1,886 Ç 43% 96 days È 53

Mercer Island

$4,850,000 Ç 18%

Number Sold

17 È 7

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

$1,011 È 25% 78 days È 83

$1,089 Ç 9% 132 days È 2

*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $2M+ from I-90 to West of Market in Kirkland, Mercer Island and I-90 to Windermere, including niehgborhoods: Leschi, Madrona, Madison Park, Denny Blaine, Washington Park & Laurelhurst. Properties with shared waterfront and not located directly on Lake Washington weren’t included in our data.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from NWMLS data.

Your home. Our mission.

No matter the style, size, or address, the properties we represent are a reflection of the vibrant lives led within their walls. That’s why we’ve made it our company mission to help everyone find their place in the world.

If you’d like a custom, complimentary report for your specific neighborhood or home, please contact us.

@vdb_compass @vdbcompass @vdbcompass VDB Compass

www.vdbcompass.com

seattle

206.245.9185

eastside

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