January 2019 - Market Review

01 19

January 2019 Monthly Report Greater Eastside and Seattle Metro

Eastside Residential* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2009 to January 2019)

Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Avg. Sold Prices

Median Sold Prices

Home Prices

Homes For Sale

$3m

600

496 Homes

412 Homes

$2.5m

500

$1.84m

$2m

$1.97m

$1.92m

$1.35m

$1.5m

$1.30m 200

159 Homes

$500K

$0

300

$1.54m

$1.25m

$1.09m $1.08m

$1m

400

100

0 Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018) Price Per Square Foot $800

Ç 15% $720 $625

$600

$400

È 9% Ç 6%

Ç 7%

È .6%

$395 $372

$340 $342

$384

$497

$452 $358

Ç 7% $429

$400

È 4% $301

$315

$200

$0 Eastside/ South of I-90

West Bellevue

Sammamish

January 2019 Price Per Square Foot

Redmond

Kirkland

Bridle Trails

Woodinville

January 2018 Price Per Square Foot

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Sold data was collected only in the month of January, dating back to 2005. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Eastside Condominiums* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Avg. Sold Prices

Median Sold Prices

Condo Prices $2m $1.8m

Condos For Sale 200

178 Condos

$1.75m

180

$1.6m $1.4m

160

$1.22m

$1.2m $1m

140 120

$858K

$780K

$800k $600k

$1.25m

$1.20m

$798K

$1.14m

100

61 Condos

80 60

$625K

$400k

40

47 Condos

$200k $0

20 0 Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

January Price Per SQFT Comparison

Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018)

Overall Market Recap Price Per Square Foot $1,000

$800

Single-Family

Ăˆ 6% $776

$823

From 2015 to 2018, we saw a steady increase in inventory

Ç14%

of about 16% Year-over-Year (YoY), but 2018 to 2019 was a different story. YoY inventory soared 107% resulting in

$660

412 homes for sale in January 2019. Average Active Prices

$581

$600

swelled 32% from 2016 to 2018 only to re-balance -18% in January 2019. Price Per SQFT values, overall, are down -5% compared to last year.

$400

Condominiums The Condo market had a similar story. Inventory hit its

$200

13 year-low in 2018 then tripled the in 2019. Despite this tripling of supply, inventory remains fairly low, historically

$0 West Bellevue

Kirkland

January 2019 Price Per Square Foot

speaking. Avg. Active Prices, unlike Single-Family homes, continued to show positive upward trends, ending January 2019 up 8%. Price Per SQFT values, overall, are up 6% YoY.

January 2018 Price Per Square Foot

*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98004 & 98033. Statistics do not include presales.

Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Eastside Community Insights

January Absorption Rates

West Bellevue

Three out of the seven communities we focused on

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

(West Bellevue, Eastside/South of I-90, Redmond and Bridle Trails) that make up the Eastside are

16%

officially a Buyer’s market, per January’s numbers.

33%

The remaining three (Sammamish, Woodinville and Kirkland) are Neutral markets, edging closer to a statistically defined Buyer’s market. Seattle, on the other hand, as you’ll see in the coming pages,

0%

three out of the four market areas (Central Seattle,

13% È 72% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET

Ballard/Greenlake & Laurelhurst/Windermere) remain a Seller’s market. Queen Anne/Magnolia’s market concluded in a Neutral position. *Absorption Rate: Number of properties sold in a given month divided by number of homes for sale.

Buyer’s Market

Neutral Market

100%

Seller’s Market

75

11

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Ç47% vs 2018

È 73% vs 2018

Eastside/South of I-90

Redmond

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

15% È 78% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET

33%

0%

100%

11% È 88% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET

62

9

65

7

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Ç114% vs 2018

È 53% vs 2018

Ç261% vs 2018

È 56% vs 2018

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Eastside Community Insights

Woodinville

Sammamish

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

33%

0%

17% È 56% off from 2018

100%

32% È 46% off from 2018

NEUTRAL MARKET

NEUTRAL MARKET

35

6

117

37

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Ç35% vs 2018

È 40% vs 2018

Ç144% vs 2018

Ç32% vs 2018

Bridle Trails

Kirkland

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

16%

33%

0%

100%

6% È 92% off from 2018 BUYER’S MARKET

33%

0%

100%

17% È 76% off from 2018 NEUTRAL MARKET

16

1

58

10

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale

Total Homes Sold

Ç300% vs 2018

È 66% vs 2018

Ç115% vs 2018

È 47% vs 2018

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Eastside Market Share by Price Point Single-Family Residential*

Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 to January 2018)

2018

2019 $1m-$1.5m

69%

$1m-$1.5m

63%

$1.5m-$2m

16%

$1.5m-$2m

19%

$2m-$2.5m

11%

$2m-$2.5m

8%

$2.5m-$3m

0%

$2.5m-$3m

6%

$3m+

3%

$3m+

4%

The noticable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 6% drop in Market Share in the $2.5million - $3million price range.

Condominiums*

Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 to January 2018)

2018

2019 $600k-$800k

23%

$600k-$800k

25%

$800k-$1m

9%

$800k-$1m

13%

$1m-$1.2m

27%

$1m-$1.2m

8%

$1.2m-1.4m

9%

$1.2m-1.4m

25%

$1.4m+

32%

$1.4m+

29%

The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 16% drop in Market Share in the $1.2million - $1.4million price range and the 19% increase in Market Share in the $1million - $1.2million price range.

*Data shown is for homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront. Zip codes: 98004, 98006, 98027, 98029, 98033, 98039, 98053, 98053, 98072, 98077. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Seattle Metro Residential * January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Avg. Sold Prices

Median Sold Prices

Home Prices $3m

Homes For Sale 200

183 Homes

180

$2.5m

$2.63m $2.02m

140

$2m

121 Homes

$1.90m $1.5m

$1m

$1.45m

$1.79m

$1.28m

$1.32m

$1.15m

160

120 100 80

$1.23m

60

67 Homes

40

$500k

20 $0

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

0

January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 vs January 2018) Price Per Square Foot $800

$612 $600

Ç 16%

Ç 6%

Ç 14% $578

$604

È 8%

$566 $497

$481

$521 $446

$400

$200

$0 Central Seattle

Queen Anne/ Magnolia

Ballard/ Greenlake

Laurelhurst/ Windermere

January 2019 Price Per Square Foot January 2018 Price Per Square Foot

*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Zip codes include: 98102, 98103, 98105, 98107, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98122, 98199. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Seattle Metro Condominiums* January Timeline Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2009 to January 2019) Homes For Sale

Avg. Active Prices

Avg. Sold Prices

Median Sold Prices

Home Prices

Homes For Sale

$2.5m

200

189 Condos

180

$2.13m

156 Condos

$1.97m

$2m

160 140

$1.5m

$1.40m

120

$1.30m $1.08m

$1m

$1.1m

$1.40m

100

$843k

80

75 Condos

60

$780k

$500k

40 20 0

$0 Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

January Price Per SQFT Comparison Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 vs January 2018)

Overall Market Recap Price Per Square Foot

Single-Family

$1,000

The lowest amount of Single-Family homes for sale, in the

Ăˆ 15%

$799

$800

$682

past 13 years, was back in 2017 (47 total homes). From 2015 to 2018, inventory levels remained low, but increased 98% to end January 2019 with 121 homes on the market.

Avg. Active Prices, in the last ten years, peaked in 2017 at

$600

a little over $2.5m, but soon after started decelerating, ending January 2019 off -5% Year-over-Year (YoY). Price

$400

Per SQFT (PPSF) values are up 10% compared to last year.

Condominiums

$200

The Condo market followed suit. Inventory hit its 13 yearlow in 2017 and didn’t change much in 2018, but then

$0 Seattle Metro

January 2019 Price Per Square Foot January 2018 Price Per Square Foot

roughly tripled in 2019. Active Prices in the Condo market fluctuated up and down 28-30% since 2014, ending the year down -28% in January 2019. Price Per SQFT (PPSF) values, are down -15% YoY.

*Data shown is for condos priced $600K+. Zip codes: 98101, 98102, 98104, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98121, 98122 & 98199. Statistics do not include presales. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Seattle Community Insights

January Absorption Rates Absorption Rate Defined: Number of properties

Buyer’s Market

sold divided by number of homes for sale.

Neutral Market

Central Seattle*

Laurelhurst / Windermere

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

33%

0%

16%

100%

Seller’s Market

33%

0%

100%

39% Ç 16% off from 2018

75% no change from 2018

SELLER’S MARKET

SELLER’S MARKET

26

10

4

3

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç189% vs 2018

Ç233% vs 2018

È 50% vs 2018

È 50% vs 2018

Queen Anne / Magnolia

Ballard / Green Lake

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

Absorption Rate (closed sales)

16%

16%

33%

0%

100%

22% È 66% off from 2018 8 36 NEUTRAL MARKET

33%

0%

100%

35% È 69% off from 2018 15 43 SELLER’S MARKET

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Homes For Sale*

Total Homes Sold

Ç80% vs 2018

È 38% vs 2018

Ç207% vs 2018

È 6% vs 2018

*Data shown is for homes priced >$1M+ excluding waterfront. Included neighborhoods for Central Seattle: Capitol Hill, Denny Blaine, Madison Park & Washington Park. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Seattle Market Share by Price Point Single-Family Residential*

Price Range: $1m+ (January 2019 to January 2018)

2018

2019

$1m-$1.5m

68%

$1m-$1.5m

64%

$1.5m-$2m

15%

$1.5m-$2m

27%

$2m-$2.5m

10%

$2m-$2.5m

4%

$2.5m-$3m

2%

$2.5m-$3m

4%

$3m+

5%

$3m+

0%

The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 12% increase in Market Share in the $1.5million to $2million price range and the 5% increase in Market Share in the $3million+ price range.

Condominiums*

Price Range: $600k+ (January 2019 to January 2018)

2019

2018

$600k-$800k

59%

$600k-$800k

62%

$800k-$1m

23%

$800k-$1m

15%

$1m-$1.2m

9%

$1m-$1.2m

23%

$1.2m-1.4m

9%

$1.2m-1.4m

0%

$1.4m+

0%

$1.4m+

23%

The noticeable difference between January 2019 and January 2018 is the 23% drop in Market Share in the $1.4million+ price range and the 9% increase in Market Share in the $1.2million - $1.4million dollar price range.

*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $1M+, excluding waterfront & condominiums priced $600k+. Zip codes: 98102, 98103, 98105, 98107, 98109, 98112, 98119, 98122 98199. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from Trendgraphix.

Waterfront* Waterfront Market Recap For true* water front properties, January 2019 had only 2 closings and one home under contract. Last year, January 2018, was also a quite year with no closings and 2 pending sales.

For Sale in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community

For Sale

Median List Price

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

Seattle

2

$8,375,000

$1,698

391 days

Eastside

7

$8,488,000

$2,732

259 days

Mercer Island

11

$6,980,000

$1,138

457 days

*Data shown is for single-family homes priced $2M+ from I-90 to West of Market in Kirkland, Mercer Island and I-90 to Windermere, including neighborhoods: Leschi, Madrona, Madison Park, Denny Blaine, Washington Park & Laurelhurst. True waterfront properties are homes that have their own private waterfront footage, not shared. Information and statistics derived by VDB | Compass from NWMLS data.

Waterfront* Pending in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community

Pending

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

Seattle

0

n/a

n/a

Eastside

1

$2,740

2

Mercer Island

0

n/a

n/a

days

Sold in January 2019 Price Range: $2m+ Community

Sold

Median List Price

Avg Price / SF (Sold)

Avg Days on Market

Seattle

0

n/a

n/a

n/a

Eastside

1

$6,500,000

$1,613

72 days

Mercer Island

1

$4,700,000

$888

104 days

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