The Four Environmental Issues that Really Matter: And How they will Change Everything Gord Miller Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
There Four Issues that Matter Peak Energy Water Shortages Climate Change Biodiversity Loss
There Four Issues that Matter Peak Energy Water Shortages Climate Change Biodiversity Loss
They are the four “pressures” on public decision making that will shape events in the coming decades
The Four pressures … interrelated … share common cause represent different foci within society and are represented by different groups all occurring concurrently but with …
– different levels of public awareness – varying geographic impact
Peak Energy Peak Oil Peak Electricity
Peak Oil
Concept of Peak Oil
Oil Production
Hubbert Peak
Time
2002
1996
1990
1984
1978
1972
1966
1960
1954
1948
1942
1936
1930
1924
1918
1912
1906
1900
X 1000 Barrels per Day
US Oil Production
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Concept of Peak Oil
‘Stable’ Prices
Lots of Oil
Time
Concept of Peak Oil
Huge Price Increases
Still Lots of Oil
Time
Peak Oil
So what does that mean to Ontario in the next two decades? – much more expensive fuel (possible shortages) – more expensive food – less wealth generally – constraints on taxes – increased pressure on public transit – distance dominates … again … suburban trend reverses
Peak Electricity ď Ź
not a shortage issue per say but still a big problem
Peak Electricity not a shortage issue per say but still a big problem 2009 the average market price was …
– $0.033 /kWh
Peak Electricity not a shortage issue per say but still a big problem – we must build to peak 2009 the average market price was …
– $0.033 /kWh
2009 the peak market price was … – $1.89 /kWh
there will be upward pressure on peak load prices
Peak Electricity
So what does that mean to Ontario in the next two decades? – long term increase in base prices despite interval metering – much stronger thrust on reduction of energy use and energy efficiency – development of a conserver society
Water Shortages
Water Shortages In Ontario water is abundant – sort of … Municipal water has a high energy cost and we are big consumers Our development patterns create shortages among abundance Water plays out on a continental basis Imbedded water is an international trade issue
Water Shortages In Ontario water is abundant – sort of … Municipal water has a high energy cost and we are big consumers Our development patterns create shortages among abundance Water plays out on a continental basis Imbedded water is an international trade issue
Water Shortages In Ontario water is abundant – sort of … Municipal water has a high energy cost and we are big consumers Our development patterns create shortages among abundance Water plays out on a continental basis Imbedded water is an international trade issue
Water Shortages In Ontario water is abundant – sort of … Municipal water has a high energy cost and we are big consumers Our development patterns create shortages among abundance Water plays out on a continental basis Imbedded water is an international trade issue
Water Shortages In Ontario water is abundant – sort of … Municipal water has a high energy cost and we are big consumers Our development patterns create shortages among abundance Water plays out on a continental basis Imbedded water is an international trade issue
Water Shortages
So what does that mean to Ontario in the next two decades? – threatened municipal supplies / constraints on growth – demand for grey water re-use, rain water capture technology – controversy and conflict over long distance pipelines – continued threats re Great Lakes takings
Climate Change
Climate Change It’s not about believing It’s already happening It’s accelerating at a frightening pace It may not have touched you yet (but it
doesn’t have a gentle hand)
Climate Change
So what does that mean to Ontario in the next two decades? – more extreme precipitation events – flooding, culvert washouts, CSOs – more extreme weather – power outages, etc. – less assimilative capacity at low flow – more frost cycles disrupting roads – more pest problems - range extensions
Biodiversity Loss
Daniel W. McKenney, John H. Pedlar, Kevin Lawrence, Paul A. Gray, Stephen J. Colombo, William J. Crins
1971-2000
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
1971-2000
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
1971-2000
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
How does this Manifest?
Extirpations – Inadequate dispersal, loss of symbiotes – geographic barriers, geologic barriers
Species Range Extensions – animals, plants, fungi, pathogens
Breakouts, Infestations and Displacements Asynchrony of Ecosystem Signals – Phenological asynchrony – Predator-Prey asynchrony
How does this Manifest?
Extirpations – Inadequate dispersal, loss of symbiotes – geographic barriers, geologic barriers
Species Range Extensions – animals, plants, fungi, pathogens
Breakouts, Infestations and Displacements Asynchrony of Ecosystem Signals – Phenological asynchrony – Predator-Prey asynchrony
How does this Manifest?
Extirpations – Inadequate dispersal, loss of symbiotes – geographic barriers, geologic barriers
Species Range Extensions – animals, plants, fungi, pathogens
Breakouts, Infestations and Displacements Asynchrony of Ecosystem Signals – Phenological asynchrony – Predator-Prey asynchrony
Biodiversity Loss ď Ź
The example of the mountain pine beetle
How does this Manifest?
Extirpations – Inadequate dispersal, loss of symbiotes – geographic barriers, geologic barriers
Species Range Extensions – animals, plants, fungi, pathogens
Breakouts, Infestations and Displacements Asynchrony of Ecosystem Signals – Phenological asynchrony – Predator-Prey asynchrony
With Regard to Biodiversity ď ŹClimate
Change is the dominant threat ď ŹThe Rate of Climate Change relative to ecological and evolutionary response times is the critical factor
Biodiversity Loss
So what does that mean to Ontario in the next two decades? – loss of street and park trees – reports of extinctions and extirpations – great disruptions in forests and aquatic ecosystems – much greater public sensitivity to wildlife and natural area issues
In Summary ‌ ď Ź
the coming changes caused by the four pressures will cause a restructuring of our entire socioeconomic system
In Summary … the coming changes caused by the four pressures will cause a restructuring of our entire socioeconomic system we can try to anticipate and adapt to the changes as best we can … starting very soon … or
In Summary … the coming changes caused by the four pressures will cause a restructuring of our entire socioeconomic system we can try to anticipate and adapt to the changes as best we can … starting very soon … or we can pretend its not happening and take what comes
Winston Churchill … “the era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”
Douglas Adams
Douglas Adams Arthur: "It's at times like this I wish I'd listened to my mother." Ford: "Why, what did she say?" Arthur: "I don't know, I never listened."