’BIRDS CELEBRATE HOMECOMING DESPITE LOSS SPORTS 8 videtteonline
MONDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2016
Vol. 129 / No. 15
ILLINOIS STATE UNIVERSIT Y’S NEWS SOURCE SINCE 1888
Professor warns against faulty polls KEVIN SCHWALLER News Reporter | @KevSchwa
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s the 2016 presidential election heads into its last few weeks, it is almost inevitable that those who use any kind of social media will see polls claiming who is winning, and by how much. Tracking polls requires measures of public opinion and methodology, and poll results will most likely fluctuate daily. Many people who read these polls may not understand how they work or if they are reliable. A handful of popular polls are actually inaccurate, as Illinois State University Department of Politics and Government Assistant Professor Kerri Milita explained. Milita, who studies the science of polling, said polls that are scientific and valid must require random selection. “Every person in the country, state or locality must have an equal chance of being selected to give a response,” Milita said. “You don’t find a good poll; it finds you.” Random selections require 1,000 adults from across the country to participate in the polling. Polls seen on social media, like from Facebook or CNN, are inaccurate because they can be done online or over the
phone. These national polls are invalid because the presidency is not won at a national level, Milita explained. Polls need to be distributed through all 50 states instead. “That’s why it’s not required for presidential campaign polls to be nationally representative; they need to be representative of each state,” Milita said. Polls might end with the same answers repeatedly, which may make them reliable, but not valid. However, there are also some credible websites. “Perhaps the most famous [and credible] polling sites are the American National Election Studies (ANES), Gallup and the Pew [Research Center],” Milita said. “Nate Silver’s website is also pretty useful.” “Nate Silver runs 50 individual empirical predictions for the presidential election, and that’s how we need to think of this,” Milita said. “After all, there have been several instances where the candidate that won the popular vote didn’t actually win the election.” Polls are conducted via phone, email and in person. They can often be influenced by the order of their questions. The poll’s participants’ race and gender can also influence
Photo Illustration by Alyson Morse
There are many polls that students should not trust because they are not scientifically credible. the person’s answers. “Polls, when done correctly, are remarkably accurate predictors of election outcomes. If students are following the right polls, it’s easier to understand and predict who will be the victor on Election Day,” Milita said. Senior political science major Gus Stott believes students should
take advantage of the reliable polls to stay informed. “A lot of polls can just be misleading. A Fox News poll could say Trump won the debate, but an NBC poll might say Clinton did. Those aren’t really reliable,” Stott said. “I think that if people just looked into how polls really work and looked at credible ones and shared their data
with friends, a lot of students would be more politically informed.” For those interested in learning more about the political race, Milita will be presenting a “Media and the Modern Candidate” talk with Assistant Professor of Communication Rebecca Hayes Oct. 25. in Room 110 of the Center for the Visual Arts.
Students, alumni celebrate Redbird Homecoming Current Redbirds, families, alumni and faculty enjoyed the warm weather and Illinois State University spirit at the annual 5K, parade, football game and tailgate
Homecoming facts and figures
12,570 people attended the Homecoming football game. YSU beat ISU
20-6.
Jaylon Joyner and Ashley Shannon were named Homecoming King and Queen. Tailgaters occupied 13
parking lots
throughout campus, starting at 7 a.m.
Monica Mendoza | Vidette Photographer
Homecoming Queen and junior broadcast journalism major Ashley Shannon poses with a potential future Redbird cheerleader at Hoopfest scrimmage Friday night.
Check out the gallery of Homecoming photographs at our website videtteonline. com