Santa Barbara Area Market Report
SANTA BARBARA AREA REAL ESTATE THROUGH DECEMBER 2024
TOTAL SALES
1,233
(+12% over 2023)
Review in Numbers
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
DECEMBER 2024 YTD
SINGLE
FAMILY RESIDENCE SALES
894
(+16% over 2023)
CONDOMINIUM SALES
339
(+2% over 2023)
Hello!
Welcome and thank you for exploring our Fourth Quarter 2024 Market Report.
As is always the case, the market is a constant evolution of macro and micro forces intersecting. Beginning in September, we finally saw the Fed ease interest rates by cutting three times, for a total of 100 basis points. As you will see in this Report, this looks to have been a psychological catalyst in consumer confidence. Due to factors such as strong economic data and new inflation concerns, mortgage rates actually rose. For example, an indicative 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved from ~6.5% in October to over ~7% in early January. That said, with a chronic undersupply of inventory in our area, and 40%+ of sales paid via all cash, this ~50 basis point move higher was largely a non-issue for our market, even in less expensive submarkets. Inventory, more so than rates, continues to be the impediment to higher levels of sales activity.
In the Fourth Quarter, we saw 302 closed sales across the South County, an increase of 23% compared to Q4 2023. For context, there were 1,238 sales for the full year 2024, an increase of 12% compared to 2023, meaning sales accelerated into year-end. Median Price for the quarter was just below $1.85MM, an increase of 8% compared to Q4 2023. For the full year 2024, Median Price set a new annual record of $1.795MM, up 6% from 2023.
We hope you find this report useful, but every neighborhood and property is unique. If you have any questions, or would like more specific information about your market or property, please feel free to contact us. The entire team at Village is committed to serving you.
Best regards, Renee
Grubb
S ingle Family
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
DECEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$3,509,152 +10% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$2,172,130
+3% change from 2023
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY DECEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$1,271,485 +3% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$995,000 +5% change from 2023
SALES & INVENTORY
In the Fourth Quarter, there were 311 closings across the South County, an increase of 23% from Q4 2023, and a small 3% decline from Q3. For the full year 2024, there were 1,238 sales, an increase of 12% over 2023. As we noted in prior reports, sales decreased consistently through the pandemic as a result of highly limited inventory.
In a sign our market is becoming more balanced, we saw a nice uptick in inventory throughout 2024, with new listings up 10% compared to 2023, and total listings up 13%. There were just over 2,700 new listings in 2024, 2,400 of which were new listings. For context, in 2019, there were ~4,200 total listings, a decline of 35%.
We can measure supply vs. demand technically through a metric like Months of Supply (the number of months at which existing inventory sells at the current sales pace, six months equals supply/demand equilibrium). In 2019, Months of Supply ran at 4.5 months, indicating undersupply even before covid. During the peak covid market, we reached one, and even below one month of supply in late 2021 and early 2022. Since then, inventory has slowly been added to the market. In 2024, we averaged 2.7 months. While still undersupplied, and technically a seller’s market, we interpret this as a step in the right direction toward a more balanced market, albeit at higher prices.
Santa Barbara Area real estate market
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY · THROUGH DECEMBER 2024
PRICING
As a result of our long-term undersupplied market, pricing continues to appreciate. Median Price rose 8% in Q4 compared to Q4 2023. Median Price for the full year 2024 was $1.795MM, up 6% from 2023, and up 74% from 2019.
Zooming out, over the past 30 years (1995 - 2024), Median Price has increased over 7x, ($253,000 in 1995 vs. $1.795MM in 2024), or +7.2% per year on average. In those 30 years, median pricing declined year-over-year just seven times (or 23% of the time). Importantly, however, there were only two times where the percentage decrease equaled double digits (2008-2009, ~14-16% in those years). The five other times when median price declined, the decrease was less than 10%.
DECEMBER 2024
9 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$2,231,667 +55% change from 2023
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
51
SALES PRICE · YTD
$7,351,386
$1,465,000 +12% change from 2023
62
SALES PRICE · YTD $2,000,000 TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,016,566
SALES PRICE · YTD $840,000
Carpinteria
This was the third straight quarter there were 30 closed sales in Carp (+67% from Q4 2023 when there were 18). Median Price increased 20% from Q4 2023, to $1.66MM. In market share terms, Carp represented 10% of total sales, as compared to 7% a year ago. The most notable transactions this quarter were: 4315 Avenue Del Mar ($8MM), and an oceanfront estate on Padaro Ln for $65MM.
On an annual basis, sales were even with calendar year 2023 but Median Price increased 15%, from $1.1MM to $1.3MM.
Summerland
Summerland had five closed sales this quarter for a Median Price of $4.5MM (-40% YoY). Market share for the quarter was 2% of South County Sales. There were only two sales in Q4 2023 where the Median Price was $7.4MM, thus a tough comparison. Notable sales in the quarter were: 3 Hunt Dr ($5.5MM) and 25 Lambert Rd ($8.5MM).
On an annual basis, there were 14 sales in 2024, even with the year prior. Median Price went from $4.3MM in 2023 to $3.4MM in 2024, a 20% decline.
DECEMBER 2024
1
$8,500,000 n/a change from 2023
· YEAR TO DATE
12
SALES PRICE · YTD
$3,675,750
SALES PRICE · YTD $3,182,500
1
$8,500,000 n/a change from 2023
SALES · YEAR TO DATE
SALES PRICE · YTD
$999,999
SALES PRICE · YTD $999,999
DECEMBER 2024
14
145
$5,591,939 +11% change from 2023
· YEAR TO DATE
$7,602,453
SALES PRICE · YTD $5,500,000
$4,246,000 -5% change from 2023
18
SALES · YEAR TO DATE
SALES PRICE · YTD
$3,783,092
Montecito
Montecito sales remained even with Q4 2023, with 39 closings. This represented 13% of South County sales in the quarter, down from 15% in Q4 2023. Median Price in Q4 2024 came in at just under $5MM, down 8% from the year prior. This decline could partially be attributed to just four sales at or over $10MM, including: 1285 E Mountain Dr ($10MM), 615 Hot Springs Rd ($10.65MM), 770 San Ysidro Ln ($13.5MM), and 735 Picacho Ln ($17MM).
On an annual basis, while sales were even at 163 sales for 2023 and 2024, Median Price increased by 4% (from $5.1MM in 2023 to $5.3MM in 2024), setting a new annual record.
2200 BELLA VISTA
Santa Barbara
At 138 closed sales, Santa Barbara activity increased markedly by 18% in the fourth quarter (compared to Q4 2023). In market share terms however, Santa Barbara’s sales declined to 46% of sales from 48% in Q4 2023. Median Price increased 6% to $1.8MM, partially helped by four sales over $6MM. Transactional highlights for the quarter include: 2321 Edgewater Way ($8.9MM), 1731 Lasuen Rd ($9.9MM), 1409 Shoreline Dr ($9.9MM).
On an annual basis, there were 557 sales in Santa Barbara at a Median Price of $1.9MM, setting a new annual record. Both of those metrics were up 10% compared to 2023.
Santa Barbara
DECEMBER 2024
46 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$1,794,413 -8% change from 2023
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
429 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,697,500 +13% change from 2023
$2,490,110 MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $2,140,000 TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
129 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,281,150
SALES PRICE · YTD $942,000
Hope Ranch
DECEMBER 2024
1 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$5,350,000 n/a change from 2023
· YEAR TO DATE
$5,350,000 n/a change from 2023
SALES · YEAR TO DATE n/a
$6,259,993
SALES PRICE · YTD $6,053,000
Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch had just three sales this Quarter, on par with Q4 2023. Market share for the quarter was 1% of South County Sales. While skewed due to a low number of sales, Median Price in the quarter declined to $5.1MM, with the closings of: 1057 Estrella Dr ($3.6MM), 785 Carosam Rd ($5.35MM), and 4660 Via Roblada ($6.295MM).
On an annual basis, there were 17 closed sales in Hope Ranch all year, down from 20 in 2023. Median Price declined by 11%, from $6.9MM in 2023 to $6.3MM in 2024.
4005 LAGO DRIVE
Goleta
Goleta continues to ride a wave of momentum, with 86 sales in the quarter, an increase of 26% from Q4 2023. In market share terms, Goleta remained at 28% of South County Sales. With eight sales over $3MM, median Price increased 15% year-over-year, to just under $1.5MM, setting a new quarterly record and annual record.
On an annual basis, there were 372 sales in 2024, up 28% from 2023 (from 290). Median Price for the year was $1.4MM, an increase of 8% from 2023.
DECEMBER 2024
25 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$1,480,730 +8% change from 2023
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
240 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,350,000 +9% change from 2023
129 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,035,987
$1,837,995 MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $1,622,500 TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
$942,000
Santa Ynez Valley Review in Numbers
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY
DECEMBER 2024 YTD
TOTAL SALES
150
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE SALES
123
(-12% over 2023)
CONDOMINIUM SALES
27
(+35% over 2023)
S ingle Family
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY
DECEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$2,060,226 0% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$1,560,000 +4% change from 2023
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY DECEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$742,611 +19% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$660,000 +9% change from 2023
$708,700
17
Los Olivos & Santa Ynez
Santa Ynez
SINGLE
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
12 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD $2,099,916
MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $1,828,250 SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES • YTD
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
33
AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$3,006,161
MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,865,300
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