Santa Barbara Area Market Report
SANTA BARBARA AREA REAL ESTATE THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2024
featured property 1190 GARDEN LANE
TOTAL SALES
935
(+9% over 2023)
Review in Numbers
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE SALES
666
(+11% over 2023)
CONDOMINIUM SALES
269
(+3% over 2023)
Hello!
Welcome and thank you for exploring our Third Quarter 2024 Market Report. As is always the case, the market continues to evolve amidst an uncertain macro environment; the direction of the economy, foreign affairs, and the Presidential Election. During the Quarter, we finally saw the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. It remains to be seen how they will approach further cuts through the end of this year and early next year, but we see this as positive news for the housing market as i) financing becomes less expensive and ii) it allows sellers to trade out of their current homes in order to relocate, thus creating more inventory.
Despite all of these external factors, demand for property in our region remains robust. With 311 sales across the South County this Quarter, we saw a modest 3% increase in the number of sales compared to Q3 2023. Since 2019 (and excluding 2020), sales seasonally decreased an average of 8% from Q2 to Q3. In 2024, sales decreased 11% from Q2 to Q3, directionally in line, but slightly below the recent average. Median Price increased almost 10% year-over-year, to $1.9MM, a new quarterly record for the South County.
We hope you find this report useful, but every neighborhood and property is unique. If you have any questions, or would like more specific information about your market or property, please feel free to contact us. The entire team at Village is committed to serving you.
Best regards,
Renee Grubb
S ingle Family
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$3,638,462 +12% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$2,227,000
+6% change from 2023
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$1,223,432 -1% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$991,000 +4% change from 2023
SALES
In the Third Quarter, there were 311 closings across the South County, an increase of 5% from Q3 2023, and an 11% decline from Q2. As we noted in prior reports, sales decreased consistently through the pandemic as a result of highly limited inventory. In a sign our market is becoming more balanced, we are now seeing relief as measured by Months of Supply (the number of months, or rate, at which existing inventory would sell at the current sales pace, six months equals supply/demand equilibrium).
Using September figures, prior to the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, there were approximately five Months of Supply. During the pandemic in 2021, there was only one Month of Supply, hitting lows in late 2021 and early 2022 where there was even below one month. Last September we saw two-anda-half months, and as of September 2024, we have over three Months of Supply. While still undersupplied, and technically a seller’s market, we interpret this as a step in the right direction toward a more balanced market.
Using Days on Market (DoM) as another metric, on average, prior to the pandemic it took, two to twoand-a-half months from the list date to opening escrow. Demand at the peak of covid, DoM compressed to just over three weeks. Year-to-date, we’re seeing DoM climb back to about five weeks.
Santa Barbara Area real estate market
SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY · THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2024
PRICING
As a result of our long-term undersupplied market, pricing continues to appreciate substantially. Median Price rose 9% in Q3 compared to Q3 2023, and up 5% from last quarter, to $1.9MM. Interestingly, this uptick in price was driven by double-digit increases in Santa Barbara, Montecito and Carp, while Goleta increased more modestly.
Furthermore, there were fewer sales over $10MM and over $20MM this quarter (as compared to last quarter), on both an absolute basis and as a percentage of total sales. In Q3, there were nine sales over $10MM and two sales over $20MM (including one just under $50MM). What this reinforces for us is that, on average, we still are experiencing an undersupplied market; more demand exists than there is inventory. The high-end of the market is not skewing metrics higher.
SEPTEMBER 2024
11 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$4,192,864 -24% change from 2023
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
33 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,527,500 +11% change from 2023
$8,010,566 MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $2,000,000 TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
50 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$944,882
SALES PRICE · YTD $827,500
Carpinteria
At 30 closed sales, activity in Carp was down close to 30% from this time last year. Median Price increased 16% from Q2 2023, to $1.3MM. Similar to Santa Barbara, Carp’s market share also fell to 10% of total sales vs. 14% year-over-year. There were several notable transactions during the Quarter, including 4038 Foothill Rd for $8.6MM, as well as three sales on Padaro Ln at $10MM, $19MM, and $49.6MM.
Summerland
Summerland had five closed sales this quarter for a Median Price of $2.8MM (+20% YoY). All three sales were between $2MM - $3MM. The most notable sale this Quarter was 2363 Whitney Ave for $4.075MM.
SEPTEMBER 2024
1
8
$2,846,000
SALES PRICE · YTD $2,725,000
$4,075,000
change from 2023
SALES · YEAR TO DATE
SEPTEMBER 2024
14
110
$7,114,679 +13% change from 2023
· YEAR TO DATE
$8,115,544
SALES PRICE · YTD $5,687,500
$6,550,000 +25% change from 2023
14
SALES · YEAR TO DATE
SALES PRICE · YTD
$3,427,143
Montecito
There were 40 closed sales in Montecito this quarter, a nominal decline from 42 at this time last year. This represented 13% of total sales, relatively flat from 14% in Q2 2023. However, Median Price was markedly higher by 16%, to $5.6MM, a quarterly record. There were six sales over $10MM, and two over $15MM; highlighted by 416 Meadowbrook Dr for $16.78MM, and 771 Garden Ln for $28.4MM.
Santa Barbara
At 135 closed sales, activity declined in line with the decrease in Montecito (down 4%). In terms of market share however, Santa Barbara’s sales declined to 43% of total sales from 47% this time last year. Median Price increased 13% to $2.07MM. There were six sales over $5MM in the Quarter, highlighted by the sales of 2321 Edgewater Way on The Mesa for $8.9MM.
Barbara
SEPTEMBER 2024
47
$2,668,117 +45% change from 2023
· YEAR TO DATE
324
$2,559,436
SALES PRICE · YTD $2,217,000
$2,400,000 +42% change from 2023
97
SALES · YEAR TO DATE
$1,267,551
SEPTEMBER 2024
n/a n/a change from 2023
Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch had four sales this Quarter, slightly down from five in Q3 2023. While skewed due to a low number of sales, Median Price increased 10% to $7.95MM. The most notable sales this Quarter was 4343 Marina Dr for $13.25MM..
Goleta
Similar to last Quarter, Goleta experienced a surge in activity 97 sales (+41% YoY). To demonstrate how meaningful this is, in terms of market share as a percentage of total sales in the South County, Goleta had 31% compared to 23% in Q2 2023. Median Price rose 7% year-over-year, to $1.4MM, and essentially even with last quarter. The most notable sale this quarter was 1400/1402 N Fairview Ave for $6.375MM.
SEPTEMBER 2024
TOTAL SALES
30 AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$1,543,908 +18% change from 2023 MEDIAN SALES PRICE
$1,475,000 +10% change from 2023
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
177 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,824,617 MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $1,625,000
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
108 AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,027,100
SALES PRICE · YTD $952,000
Santa Ynez Valley Review in Numbers
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY
SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
TOTAL SALES
118
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE SALES
95
(-7% over 2023)
CONDOMINIUM SALES
23 (+15% over 2023)
S ingle Family
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY
SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$2,063,819
0% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$1,555,000
+9% change from 2023
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SEPTEMBER 2024 YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE • YTD
$739,195
+20% change from 2023
MEDIAN SALES PRICE • YTD
$715,000
+19% change from 2023
8
15
Los Olivos & Santa Ynez
Santa Ynez
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
27
YTD
AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD
$3,057,438
MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD
$1,865,300
SINGLE
TOTAL SALES · YEAR TO DATE
8
AVERAGE SALES PRICE · YTD $2,145,187
MEDIAN SALES PRICE · YTD $1,940,750
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