Global prune supplies in balance with demand

News from the INC 40th

World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress indicates a balance in the global supply and demand of prunes.

The congress took place in London, between 22 and 24 May, with nearly 1300 attendees from 65 countries sharing the latest news on dried fruits and nut production, market development and health research.

A prune workshop was led by Pacific Nut Company commercial manager José Tomás Quezada from Chile and included different players from the global industry of prunes, with producers from California and France, as well as large international buyers. They concluded that surplus stocks that had carried over from year to year, and dragged global prices down, had now been cleared.

California Prune Board executive director Donn Zea reported that while production will be higher this year, the global prune industry is in relative balance between supply and demand.

“The industry realities are impacted by a return to typical crop years in South America and France after short crops last year,” added Mr Zea.

Mr Quezada said the world had a consumption capacity for prunes of about 200,000-220,000 tonnes, a distribution that varied from year to year between the markets, but the total in the end remained the same.

“And on the world supply side, we have a productive potential of around the same number, which gives us the security of being in a healthy and balanced industry,” he said.

Chile

With a focus on exports, the Chilean prune industry is poised to take advantage of the improved prices. Chileprunes has worked hard to establish new markets and consolidate its existing international markets.

Mr Quezada highlights the stability that shipments to China have achieved, a country that already led the ranking of exports in 2022 and has increased its imports from Chile 20 times in the past 10 years.

He said there was a striking difference between the export period January – May 2022 and that same period in 2023. In 2022, China and Germany each imported less than 1000 tonnes, with amounts that fluctuated around US$3 million. Only in the second half of last year would their Chilean prune imports “explode”.

“In the first five months of 2023, Germany and China became the two main destinations for Chilean prunes, leading the first in foreign exchange returns (FOB dollars), while the Asian giant is the first in export volumes,” Mr Quezada said.

“Destinations to China reached 3623t, equivalent to US$11.7 million, while shipments to Germany of dehydrated plums were 2808t, equivalent to US$12.8 million.”

The Pacific Nut executive also makes a separate mention of Russia, which this year is more open and with great interest in receiving the Chilean product.

More recently, Chileprunes President Pedro Pablo Díaz has been part of the official tour to India, a country of great interest due to its huge potential as the most populous market in the world.

Organised by ProChile and Sofofa, the objective was to promote national exports, seek formulas to increase trade with Chile and discuss opportunities to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) between both countries. Meetings were held with authorities from the Ministry of Commerce, Food Safety and Standards, the Indian Chamber of Commerce, and with importers and retail representatives.

California

Meanwhile, in California, favourable weather during prune bloom meant prune producers observed good sizes on fruit set.

While production looks promising, supplies are expected to be tight again this season with an estimated 75,000 short tons (68,000 MT) in volume for the 2023 prune crop year according to the Executive Committee of the California Prune Board.

Bigger sizes for California prunes are in line with the premium quality of the crop.

While still in the first half of the growing season, the prune trees in California appear happy from the wet weather with natural fruit drop, resulting in what growers anticipate will be a range of optimum sizes.

“We’ve built solid demand and California prune handlers maintain careful inventory management, putting our industry in a pretty steady position,” says Mr Zea.

“The cost of business and continued tight supply is likely to keep pressure on pricing for the foreseeable future.”

Australian perspective

Australian Prune Industry Association chairman Tony Toscan welcomed the news from the international congress.

“The latest international prune market information indicating that prune supply and demand are finely balanced is welcome news,” he said.

“It is important that growers continue to invest in the Australian prune industry to maintain a critical mass which enables the industry to meet our processors’ requirements.

“At present there is insufficient local product to meet demand and more expensive Chilean prunes are being substituted for the 1 kilogram bags. “Ultimately price signals will drive this as increases in production and dehydration costs have seen grower margins eroded.”v

This article was compiled using information in press releases from California Prunes (Excellent sizes expected for California Prunes) and the Chile Prunes Association (This 2023, a balance is being seen between the global supply and demand of prunes; Chileprunes tours India with ProChile and Sofofa).