at RAF Northolt

References

1. What are El Nino and La Nina? Met Office. [Online] [Cited: 25 May 2023.] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino.

2. WMO Update: Prepare for El Nino. World Meteorological Organization. [Online] 03 May 2023. [Cited: 25 May 2023.] https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-prepare-elni%C3%B1o.

3. What Changes in Rainfall are Typical during El Niño? IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society. [Online] [Cited: 25 May 2023.] https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/IFRC/FIC/elninorain.html.

4. Contingency planners. Met Office. [Online] [Cited: 31 May 2023.] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index.

5. El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO). World Meteorological Organization. [Online] April 2023. [Cited: 25 May 2023.] https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update.

Chances of El Niño developing in 2023? The chances of El Niño occurring this year is increasing according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2

“There is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September, according to the Update, which is based on input from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment.” 2

At this stage there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, although episodes usually last nine to 12 months.

But what does El Niño mean for the UK? Well, El Niño can cause an increase in global temperatures, the WMO Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas states that “The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records” 2

However it is not the only factor in UK long term trends and the impacts of El Niño on UK summer conditions are modest. The UK 3 month outlook produced by the Met Office shows that there is a higher likelihood than normal for hotter than average temperatures, this is consistent with wider global warming trends 4