26 FEATURE SUPPLEMENT
Thursday, April 21, 2022 Wairarapa Times-Age
FEATURE SUPPLEMENT 27
www.age.co.nz Thursday, April 21, 2022
FORESTRY IN WAIRARAPA Dynamic Forest Sector – It’s never boring Export log prices are conforming to the ‘constant change’ part of a dynamic system very well as illustrated in the graph below. This year we have seen export prices jump from $115/JAS (A grade) in January to $142/JAS in February now back to $123/ JAS in March. With a cost base of around $90/JAS in many regions, you’re looking at swings of 80-100% in net return to forest owners within a 3-month period. Much of this swing is around shipping cost increases since Putin started lobbing missiles at his neighbour. Actual CFR prices (sales price in China in $US) are reasonably strong in the mid $US170’s/JAS but foreign exchange and shipping costs have closed the bar early and taken the fun out of the party. While it appears that the upward pressure on shipping prices has abated, the China log demand has come o˝ the boil from around 80kJAS/day into the high 50kJAS/day. This reduction in demand can be contributed to several reasons but principally a slowing
construction sector and covid related shutdowns in sawmills and construction sites. Inmarket Chinese log inventory is in the 4.5Mm3 region which is a reduction from February, but this is likely to increase as NZ supply has strengthened following the March price increases – remembering it takes round 5 weeks from stump to market. While China holds tight with it’s covid elimination strategy (we all know how a˝ ective that is) we will likely see subdued demand and increased port waiting times as ports are shut without notice – dynamic. I have ÿ elded plenty of questions from forest owners regarding the impact of Putin’s rampage on the demand for NZ logs and lumber. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as Europe have e˝ ectively stopped any Russian log and lumber imports which will likely re-direct volume into China. Total Russian log/ lumber supply into Europe was in the vicinity of 25Mm3/ annum and should this redirect to China, might displace the
Severe Erosion accelerates with increasing storms
total NZ supply. This is unlikely, as Russia had imposed a log export ban in January this year. Ministers Shaw and Nash have shown how ‘dynamic’ they are by proposing changes to the ETS legislation by removing exotics from being able to be included as permanent forest from January 2023. This is more than likely an attempt to keep Damien O’Connor from going postal as mounting pressure from the Ag sector regarding farm to forest conversions will be giving him the sweats. While the “50 Shades of Greeners” will be feeling rather smug over this proposed change to policy, the reality is that there are plenty of farmers and Iwi landowners that have had the opportunity taken away from them to earn
an income o˝ very marginal land that is otherwise not viable for anything except continued erosion. The latest rain events on the east coast have shown, again, what the future holds for climate change on unsupported hill sides. Government’s idea that indigenous planting will work in these areas is ° awed as the cost of establishment far outweighs any carbon gains in the short to medium term – especially in this marginal country. Anyone that has tried to establish an indigenous forest from green pasture will know that every pest wants to eat it, every spray wants to kill it and even if pests, spray and weeds are kept under control, it wants to die anyway without constant nurture and babysitting.
In summary, there’s plenty going on in our wood-based world. Operationally there’s a few wrinkles with covid and logistics related issues, prices are a crap shoot going forward with global instability and Government policy meddling in the ETS are likely to see reduced ongoing investment in greenÿ elds projects which will likely pull the handbrake on increased carbon related land prices. The production forestry investors are rubbing their hands together so it’s not likely to see a slowing of farm conversions any time soon. So, lets raise a glass to being a dynamic industry, one thing’s for sure – it’s never boring. Marcus Musson Director Forest360
"Loss of productive land through erosion has a signiÿ cant impact on the environment, economy and local communities. So, while we can’t prevent storms and ° oods happening, we can help mitigate against the impacts on people and livelihoods from slips and erosion, in particular by planting trees," says Alex Wilson, grants and partnerships director, Forest Development, at Te Uru R˛k au – New Zealand Forest Service. Alex Wilson says erosion and its e˝ ects in hill country areas alone are estimated to cost New Zealand's economy $250 million to $350 million a year. "Taking steps to reducing erosion in the upper areas of a catchment is much more cost e˝ ective than putting in ° oodcontrol structures in the lower areas and cleaning up after a ° ood. Te Uru R˛k au – New Zealand Forest Service works to protect farmland from storm damage by supporting farmers to plant trees to stabilise land, re-establish vegetation, or retire their most vulnerable areas.” "Not only does this work retain productive soils on farms, it also reduces sediment entering waterways and potential downstream damage. It is particularly important to build on-farm resilience now in the
(ECFP) was established in 1992," Alex Wilson says. "Since that time, ECFP has partnered with Gisborne District Council to assist landowners in the planting or retirement of over 45,000ha of the most erodible land features in Gisborne. "While this is a signiÿ cant improvement, work still continues to reduce the impacts of erosion on the district; impacts most acutely felt by farmers and rural communities during heavy weather events, like the recent downpours on the east coast."
Severe farm erosion in Wairoa April 2022
face of a changing climate,” Alex Wilson says. The Sustainable Land Management Hill Country Erosion Programme is the Government’s primary means of reducing soil loss on private land – through actively partnering with councils. "Establishing partnerships between farmers, councils, and Te Uru R˛k au – New Zealand Forest Service is fundamental to the programme’s success. Since 2007, more than $200
million has been invested in erosion control through the programme. This includes funding from central government, councils, and farmers. We encourage farmers to work with local councils through these voluntary programmes – plan how to best protect the vulnerable parts of your property and get support to take action." Gisborne-Tair˛ whiti is the latest region to su˝ er signiÿ cant storm damage, particularly
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in the township of Tokomaru Bay, which has been cut in half by damage to a bridge on the main highway, and in Wairoa which has seen more storm damage on farms than cyclone Bola from the 1980’s. "Tair˛ whiti has a signiÿ cant proportion of highly erodible land – 3 times higher than in other regions across New Zealand. In recognition of the severe erosion problems in the Tair˛ whiti district the Erosion Control Funding Programme
Evidence of Hill Country Erosion Programme (HCEP) initiatives leading to more sustainable land management can be found in a series of case studies around New Zealand, including in Hawke’s Bay, Manawat˙- Whanganui, Nelson, Waikato, and Greater Wellington. Alex Wilson says the case studies clearly demonstrate how HCEP is funding the right tree in the right place for erosion control, helping to prevent erosion in hilly country, which means less sedimentation ° owing downstream – and better water quality for Kiwis to enjoy. Alex Wilson Te Uru Rakau – The New Zealand Forest Service
28 FEATURE SUPPLEMENT
Thursday, April 21, 2022 Wairarapa Times-Age
FEATURE SUPPLEMENT 29
www.age.co.nz Thursday, April 21, 2022
FORESTRY IN WAIRARAPA Don’t blame the foresters by Graham Dick As a former farm-managercum-forester, I tend to have a foot in both camps in the debate around land conversion. And it all feels like déjà vu. But the rush to carbon forestry changes everything.
How did we get here?
Since M˜ori arriv ed in New Zealand/Aotearoa around 1250-1300AD, the landscape of the country has been subject to a process of land use change either by accident or (more likely) design, often with unintended consequences. In the South Island Te Waipounamu, it is likely M˜ori set ÿ re to the bush to ˛ ush out game birds such as Moa. The ÿ res caused widespread deforestation in the South Island east of the main divide and possibly the North Island’s east coast. By the time European settlers arrived, 6.7 million hectares (ha) of forest had been destroyed and replaced by short grassland, scrub and fern land. Between 1840 and
2000, another 8m ha were cleared. By 2000, only 6.2m ha of native forest remained. The ÿ rst exotic planting boom 1925-1935, following an inventory of native and exotic forests, the Forest Service Director, Leon MacIntosh Ellis projected a timber shortage by the early 1960s. He began a 10year programme to plant 300,000 ha of exotic state forest. Kaingaroa forest was part of this for good reason, cobalt deÿ ciency made the land unsuitable for farming. Several planting “booms” followed tailing o˝ in the mid-1990s. All these leaps in planting resulted from changes in government policies. The election of the Fourth Labour Government changed everything. The removal of all agricultural and forestry subsidies, higher interest rates, lower prices (remember lamb fetching $15/head?) and taxation changes. Cheap loans form the Marginal Lands Board and Rural Bank disappeared overnight. Many farmers couldn’t survive and sold out with forestry companies buying quite a lot of land resulting
in a short-lived planting boom in the mid-1980s.
proper forest management. Foresters will be horriÿ ed.
And now?
Radiata in New Zealand has a life span of 80-90 years so it’s not a “permanent” forest sink. What happens then? The carbon gets released back into the atmosphere. The idea that the exotics will just fall over and be replaced naturally be natives is just a fallacy. What happens then? Who pays back the carbon credits? Those who have creamed it in the short term will be long gone.
Once again, land use change is being driven by idealistic government policy rather than market forces. Déjà vu. 1989 heralded the introduction of the Emissions Trading Scheme with the forestry sector being forced into it. The New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF) was vehemently opposed to the scheme from the start. Far wiser heads than mine tried to tell the government the scheme would be taken over by investors looking for capital gain and little (if any) interest in reducing pollution. Can’t say they didn’t tell you! In order for New Zealand to reach its net-zero emission target by 2050, the government has incentivised capturing emissions though planting trees that store carbon. The price of carbon has doubled, making carbon farming an attractive proposition resulting in farmland being brought up by investors with little if any intention of doing any
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A glimmer of hope is the recent proposal from Ministers Nash and Shaw to exclude exotics from the ETS and encourage planting of native species which have a far longer life span and may actually become a permanent forest sink. The NZIF said more than 30 years ago, “this is a bad idea”. I doubt if even those wise heads could envisage how bad it would get. Graham Dick is a retired forester. He has a DipAg and a Masters of Professional Studies in Forestry from Lincoln, and was a Registered Forestry Consultant (NZIF).
Graham Dick in Seaview Forest near Te Wharau during an audit inspection, January 2004. Photo/supplied
UCOL Forestry Course a first for Masterton Responding to a need for links between secondary schools and industry, UCOL in Masterton has taken the initiative and set up a one day a week forestry program for secondary school students in the Wairarapa for 2022. Wairarapa College, Makoura College and Kuranui College have all engaged with UCOL and are ÿ nding new ways of keeping students engaged with local industries while continuing to study at school. This year UCOL has 8 students participating in the Friday course and engaged a tutor to deliver levels of credits in forest learning, harvest knowledge, ÿ rst aid, chainsaw courses along with many ÿ eld trips.
jobs to suit any interest – you just need to get out there and see it.
getting the van stuck in the mud is better than being in class!
Wood Council members are super excited to see enthusiastic young faces coming out to view their workplaces with our Wood Council team organizing a trip every second week for the entire year. It’s not all classroom learning, and the forest sector has a range of
The ÿ rst week saw sta° from the JNL forestry team take the class out to view a forestry logging operation with Nixon Contracting. Owner Nick Cusack let students sit in his new machinery and even have a go at driving, there were much excitement. Even
Wood Council is looking forward to supporting UCOL with this new forestry course and have a full itinerary of ÿ eld trips from seeing how trees are grown in nurseries, to viewing log ships loading, sawmill tours, tree planting and harvesting. See you out there kids!
The Southern North Island Wood Council provides a collective voice for the forestry sector in Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wairarapa, Tararua and Wellington. Members have a common interest in ensuring the long-term success of the sector. Membership is open to any company or individual with an interest in the local wood industry. Erica Kinder, SNI Wood Council CEO, can be contacted for more information. sniwoodcouncil@gmail.com
0273 290 498
sniwoodcouncil.co.nz/
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