October Luxury Market Statistics by waltdanleycire

Walt Danley

s international Real Estate

This summary analyzes single family homes over $500,000 in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Arcadia, Biltmore, Carefree, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills and Rio Verde.

SUPPLY

At the end of September, the active listing count was higher than the month before, moving from 1,931 to 2,074. This suggests that last month’s decline was an aberration rather than a new trend. This is therefore not good news for sellers. We measured 1,308 at the same time last year, so supply is up 59% since then. All price ranges increased though the smallest annual increase of 14% can be found in the range between $500,000 and $600,000. The largest increase of 130% has occurred in the range between $1 million and $1.5 million. Distress remains very low. There are nine pre-foreclosures and two lender-owned homes among the active listings.

DEMAND - SALES

Closings remained subdued during September after dropping dramatically between June and July. We counted 451 closed listings during September, down 34% from September 2021. Sales between $500,000 and $800,000 dropped the most –down 51% compared to a year ago. In contrast, the range over $800,000 was down 20%.

DEMAND – UNDER CONTRACT

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started October 2022 with 609 listings under contract, which is down 34% from 918 in September 2021. Demand was already weak last month and has deteriorated further since then. We are likely to see closing numbers during October that are far lower than October 2021, but much higher than pre-pandemic levels. The drop in demand has affected all price ranges, but none more so than the low-end. Homes under $800,000 are down 46% compared to last year, while those between $500,000 and $600,000 are down 64%. The rise in interest rates is affecting the low end of the luxury market much more than the high end, where a higher percentage of buyers pay cash.

Last Year 684 This Year 451 Sales Information contained in this report has been prepared by The Cromford Report exclusively for Walt Danley Realty and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2022 Northeast Valley – Luxury Market Summary – October 2022 Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050 Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com Last Year 1,308 This Year 2,074 Active Listings CONTINUED ON BACK... Last Year 918 This Year 609 # Homes Under Contract

Christie ’

SALES PRICING

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured monthly. We therefore prefer to measure price per sq. ft. over a longer period to identify trends more accurately. The twelve-month average currently stands at $481, up 26% from $383 in September 2021. The six-month average stands at $504, up 24% from $406 in September 2021, but unchanged from the last two months. The three-month average stands at $482, down from the peak of $512 in June because pricing has weakened sharply over the past four months due to the steep drop in demand and rising supply. The strong upward pricing trend that has persisted for many years has reversed course and we expect the longerterm averages will shortly change direction like the three-month average did two months ago.

UNDER CONTRACT PRICING

The average under contract price per square foot stands at $539, down from $544 last month and the lowest reading since February. This reflects the significant weakening in price that has taken place between June and October and suggests that sales prices will fall again next month.

Walt Danley

Christie ’ s international Real Estate

Market Data Report

Arcadia

October, 2022

The number of active listings in Arcadia edged up from 47 to 48 during September and is up 30% compared to October 1st, 2021. However, it remains low by long-term standards. Closed sales came in at ten, down from 24 in September 2021 and the lowest total for September since 2015. There is very little sign of price weakness in Arcadia and the twelve-month average has grown 26% from $533 to $672 over the last twelve months. The six-month moving average has risen 25% from $579 to $724, while the more volatile three-month moving average increased 21% from $620 to $753.

Information is power and the real estate professionals of Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate are committed to providing our clientele with the most up-to-date market intelligence available. The information contained in this report has been compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service and various public records. This data is then scrubbed and analyzed in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for the use of Walt Danley Realty and our clients.

Information

contained in this report has been prepared by Walt

Danley

Realty in conjunction with The Cromford

Report

Average Price per Square Foot for Closed Transactions the Last 17 Years

that

Number of Listings by Status for the Last Two Years

Accepted Offers Closed

in the

and the number

as of the 15th of the previous month. It also shows the number of

that were

within the entire month.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original List Price Average Price

This graph illustrates the importance of pricing your home properly from the beginning. The longer the property sits on the market, the steeper the discount.

The average list price of Active listings is measured the 15th of each month. Note: The “Under Contract” price is the list price, not the contract price. The contract price is not revealed until the transaction closes.

$100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 12 Months Avg 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 20-Oct 20-Nov 20-Dec 21-Jan 21-Feb 21-Mar 21-Apr 21-May 21-Jun 21-Jul 21-Aug 21-Sep 21-Oct 21-Nov 21-Dec 22-Jan 22-Feb 22-Mar 22-Apr 22-May Jun-22 22-Jul 22-Aug Sep-22 Active

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% <90 <150 >150 >365 Days on the Market $3,510,208 $3,611,267 $2,553,494 0 $1.0M $2.0M $3.0M $4.0M Active Under contract Sold - Last 12 Months

This graph shows the number of homes that were active

area

offers

were accepted

of transactions

closed

Arcadia - October 2022 Information contained in this report has been prepared by Walt Danley Realty in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for WDR and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2022 Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050 Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com

Market Activity by Price Range

Inventory - Number of Months Supply

Average Price per Square Foot by Price Range

Note: The

The

New Listings by Month

Accepted Offers by Month

Closed Transactions by Month

8 30 No Active Inventory 3 10 2 9 2 3 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 <$750K $0.75-$1.25M $1.25-2M $2M+ Active New This Month Offers Accepted This Month Sold This month No Sales No Sales 1.9 3.0 0 12 24 <$750K $0.75-$1.25M $1.25-2M $2M+ $625 $844 $675 $818 $391 $501 $572 $710 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 <$750K $0.75-$1.25M $1.25-2M $2M+ Active Under contract Sold - Last 12 Mo 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Seasonality

Active listings were measured on the 15th of the previous month. The numbers for New This Month, Accepted Offers and Sold represent the quantities for the entire previous month.

“Under Contract” price is the list price, not the contract price.

contract price is not revealed until the transaction closes. The charts above reflect activity by month. Each bar represents the percentage of annual business done within a specific month. Arcadia - October 2022 Information contained in this report has been prepared by Walt Danley Realty in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for WDR and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2022 Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050 Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com

Price per Square Foot

per Square Foot

Arcadia - October 2022 $597 $660 $704 $694 $636 $309 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 <2,500 2,501-3,500 3,501-5,000 5,001-7,500 7,501-10,000 10,000+

Based on size of the home (sold over the last twelve months) $643 $583 $571 $563 $668 $808 $817 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 <1970 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Based on the year built (sold over the last twelve months) $813 $730 $791 $687$672 $674 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 Traditional Short Sale REO Active Closed - Last Month Active- 12 Mo Avg Sold - 12-Mo Avg No Active Invenotry Price

By Type Information contained in this report has been prepared by Walt Danley Realty in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for WDR and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2022 Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050 Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com

Walt Danley Christie ’ s international Real Estate

Market Data Report