YEMEN’S TRAGEDY

Fighting Not to Be Forgotten

Five Years After Saudi-Led Intervention, Yemen Remains Mired in Suffering and Stalemate

BY JONATHAN GORVETT

his month marks ve years since Houthi rebels took over the Yemeni capital of Sana’a and then pushed south, triggering a military intervention by neighboring Saudi Arabia and its Arab coalition partners.

Since then, the country has become a staging ground for one of the world’s worst — and most overlooked — con- icts and humanitarian disasters. While accurate gures are hard to gather, the respected Armed Conict Location & Event Data project (ACLED) estimates that the death toll has surpassed 100,000 since 2015, including over 20,000 deaths in 2019 alone and some 12,000 civilians killed in directly targeted attacks since 2015. e war has also seen one of the worst outbreaks of cholera in modern times, along with widespread malnutrition and a host of associated diseases and otherwise preventable deaths.

According to the U.N., over 24 million people — 80 percent of the population — are in need of humanitarian aid and protection, making Yemen the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. Meanwhile, the country continues to be a battleground for U.S. operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Pen insula (AQAP) and, more recently, the Islamic State.

Yet, despite the horror — and widespread war fatigue among Yemen’s various combatants — a comprehensive settlement still appears elusive. On the contrary, aid workers and analysts fear that the conict is now settling into a protracted stalemate, with local deals serving as a poor substitute for a last ing peace.

“Today, Yemen is a no-war, no-peace state, which I suspect could be sustainable for another four years, without a genuine will for peace,” said Yemen analyst Sama’a Al Hamdani, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute. at’s largely because the war is essentially a proxy for the wider battle between Iran and the Saudi-UAE alliance — and between Iran and the United States.

“Solving this is the key to de-escalation throughout the region,” Al Hamdani said.

So, while there was a tiny glimmer of hope in February when a U.N.-administered medical ight was allowed to carry seven seriously ill patients out of Sana’a airport — the result of months of negotiations with Saudi Arabia to li its blockade of Yemeni air space — until such eorts become part of a bigger settlement, millions of Yemenis will continue to suer. T

As rain approaches, a girl removes clothes hanging from the line outside her family’s tent in a camp for internally displaced persons on the outskirts of Kharem, Yemen, on July 22, 2019. According to the U.N., more than 24 million people — some 80% of Yemen’s population — are in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 12 million children. PHOTO: ALESSIO ROMENZI / UNICEF

militias and outside powers, Yemenis are all too familiar with war and suering.

It was only in 1990, aer decades of civil war, that the independent northern and southern states united to form the modern republic of Yemen, with strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh taking over the impoverished country.

A wily political operative who ruled for over 30 years, Saleh was forced to resign during the 2011 Arab Spring up risings and was replaced by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who came to power as part of a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Meanwhile, the northern-based Houthis, who follow the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam and make up about a third of population, have long chafed under Sunni-majority rule — both at the hands of Saleh and later his replace ment.

Aer a series of clashes and protests over fuel prices and political representation, the Houthis advanced on the capital and ousted President Hadi’s internationally recognized government in 2015. Hadi ed to exile in Saudi Arabia, which promptly launched a bombing campaign to restore him to power.

For decades, Saudi Arabia has inserted itself into Yemen’s various political and military disputes to exert inuence over its southern neighbor, which controls the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint for the global transit of oil. e Houthi takeover in 2015 sparked fears in the Sunni kingdom that its Shiite archrival Iran would gain a foothold next door.

While the Houthis were nominally aligned with Iran in the early stages of the conict, many experts say Saudi Arabia exaggerated claims of Tehran’s ties with the rebel group. But eventu ally those ties hardened as the ghting dragged on and the conict devolved into a regional proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

e decision to mobilize a coalition of Arab states to intervene in Yemen was spearheaded by Crown Prince Mo hammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s young de facto ruler, who has moved aggressively to contain Iran and consolidate power at home.

While initially hailed as a reformer, Salman has since come under re for a series of controversial, and clumsy, missteps — among them, orchestrating a largely unsuccessful blockade of Qa tar; purging wealthy Saudi princes and businessmen under the guise of tackling corruption; and allegedly ordering the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist for e Washington Post. Most recently, Salman has become embroiled in accusations that he was involved in hacking the phone of Amazon owner Je Bezos, who also owns e Post.

But Saudi Arabia’s brutal military campaign in Yemen has drawn perhaps the ercest international condemna tion — even from Riyadh’s traditional Republican backers in Congress. e Saudi-led coalition has been accused of indiscriminately bombing civilians Saudi Arabia wants to get out of the conict because of the reputational damage the war and the humanitarian crisis is doing to it. But it needs some kind of win in order to do so. SAMA’A AL HAMDANI, non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute “

”

NOTE: Although every effort is made to assure your ad is free of mistakes in spelling and content it is ultimately up to the customer to make the final proof. The first two faxed changes will be made at no cost to the advertiser, subsequent changes will be billed at a rate of $75 per faxed alteration. Signed ads are considered approved. Please check this ad carefully. Mark any changes to your ad. If the ad is correct sign and fax to: (301) 949-0065 needs changes The Washington Diplomat (301) 933-3552 Approved __________________________________________________ Changes ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ and imposing an air and sea blockade that has kept lifesaving food and medicine from a country on the precipice of famine and a cholera epidemic.

Even Saudi Arabia’s staunchest ally, the UAE, seems to have grown weary of the Yemen quagmire and began withdrawing its forces from the country last summer.

In the face of mounting pressure, Saudi Arabia in recent months re portedly engaged in back-channel talks with the Houthis via Omani interlocutors.

“Saudi Arabia wants to get out of the conict because of the reputational damage the war and the humanitarian crisis is doing to it,” said Al Hamdani. “But it needs some kind of win in order to do so.” NO MILITARY SOLUTION A win on the battleeld, however, is unlikely. While the initial stages of the conict saw rapid military advances — and retreats — more recently, it has seen relatively stable frontlines.

e Houthis — formally known as Ansar Allah — continue to oc cupy much of the northern Yemeni territory from where they originally sprang, including Sana’a. Backed by Iran and principally composed of Zaydi Shiites, the Houthis also have a number of northern tribal allies on their side.

Facing them is the anti-Houthi bloc, principally composed of the National Resistance Forces, loyal to Hadi’s government, which is now based in Riyadh, and the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a seces sionist movement harking back to the time up until 1990 when South Yemen was an independent state.

On the ground in support of the anti-Houthi bloc is the Arab coalition that Riyadh mobilized, originally consisting of troop contingents from nine countries, but now effectively composed of Saudi troops, along with dwindling Emirati and Sudanese contingents.

e latter two have been drawing down in recent months, with the UAE largely replacing its forces with STC troops that it has trained and equipped. e Sudanese — originally committed by the now-overthrown regime of Omar al-Bashir — have seen their original 30,000-strong force in Yemen dwindle to just 657, as the new government withdraws from what is an increasingly unpopular war.

e anti-Houthi bloc is thus far from united, as evidenced by a rupture that took place between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia last year when the Southern Transitional Council seized control of the southern port city of Aden, Hadi’s political stronghold. at led to clashes between the UAEbacked STC and forces loyal to the Saudi-backed president, whose government opposes the southern separatists. A peace deal, the Ri yadh agreement, brought the power struggle to an end last October.

e other key peace deal is the U.N.-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, which was signed at the close of 2018 aer erce battles over the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, a critical gateway for food and other supplies. e agreement resulted in a ceasere there, along with pledges by all sides to exchange prisoners, establish hu manitarian aid corridors and pull their forces back from the port and surrounding city to create a demilitarized zone.

e agreement raised hopes for an end to the war, even though parts of it have yet to be implemented. Nonetheless, there had been a signicant lull in ghting since last September, when the Houthis announced they would suspend attacks on Saudi Arabia following drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities (which the Houthis claimed responsibly for but which were widely attributed to Iran).

Meanwhile, the Saudis seemed keen for a solution as well. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Saudi Foreign Aairs Minister Adel al-Jubeir said, “We may have some skirmishes from time to time, but the trend is toward a political settlement.”

And Martin Griths, the U.N. special envoy for Yemen and broker of the Stockholm deal, described the end of 2019 as one of the conict’s quietest periods.

e relative calm, however, was shattered on Jan. 18 with a Houthi missile strike in Marib governorate, east of Sana’a, that reportedly killed over 100 pro-government troops. Saudi Arabia responded with a bar rage of airstrikes on rebel targets. In a statement, Griths said the renewed ghting “is putting everything we gained at a great risk.”

More bloodshed has followed since then, with over 30 civilians killed in Saudi airstrikes in mid-February aer Houthi rebels claimed to have shot down one of Riyadh’s jets. “Under international humanitarian law parties which resort to force are obligated to protect civilians,” Lise Grande, the U.N.’s humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, said in a statement. “Five years into this conict and belligerents are still failing to uphold this responsibility. It's shocking.” People in Scotland hold a rally in December 2017 to protest the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, where, according to some estimates, over 100,000 have died since Saudi Arabia launched its bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in 2015. PHOTO: FELTON DAVIS – OWN WORK, CC BY-SA 2.0

SEE YEMEN • PAGE 14

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Yemen CONTINUED • PAGE 13

 e Houthi missile strikes may have been an attempt to gain leverage ahead of any peace talks. But some have suggested they could have been a response to the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, on Jan. 3 — and a failed U.S. drone strike against Quds commander Abdul Reza Shahla’i in Yemen the same day. Indeed, the recent escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, occurring while both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been using back channels to try to de-escalate those tensions, is likely having a literal impact on the ground in Yemen.

PROSPECTS FOR PEACE?

Disentangling the war from the wider confrontation between Iran and the U.S. may be key to a future settlement in Yemen, while Yemen itself may also be key to disentangling the wider confrontation.

Following a summer of oil tanker skirmishes and an attack on Saudi oil-processing facilities a er Trump tightened sanctions on Iran,  e New York Times reported that the UAE government reached out to Iran in a bid to defuse the situation.  e Saudi oil attack revealed Riyadh’s military weaknesses and may have prompted the kingdom to also quietly reach out to the Iranians.

Amid the escalating tensions, it’s possible that the Houthis want to avoid becoming embroiled in a larger con ict between the U.S. and Iran in the wake of Soleimani’s killing. Meanwhile, an end to the war in Yemen would

PHOTO: BY SAUDI88HAWK - OWN WORK, CC BY-SA 4.0

A Saudi soldier from the First Airborne Brigade talks to an Emirati soldier in Yemen in June 2016. Since joining the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen five years ago, the United Arab Emirates has begun extricating its troops from the war-torn country.

also be in America’s interests because it could curb Iranian in uence in the country and cool hostilities in the region.

If, in fact, all sides are driven by a desire to avoid further instability, the conditions could be ripe for the U.S. to prod the Saudis and Houthis to come to the negotiating table.

“ ere is a fragile opportunity for peace right now,” said Al Hamdani. “If the Arab coalition and the U.S. are serious about wanting regional de-escalation, then Yemen would be the place to do this.”

At the same time, humanitarian e orts should be disentangled from the fortunes of the political negotiations, aid agencies say.

“ e humanitarian situation shouldn’t be

used as a bargaining chip and should be kept separate from any higher-level talks,” said Padraic McCluskey, humanitarian a airs advisor for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). “All the warring parties can take further steps to improve the space for humanitarian organizations to gain access,” he added.

Indeed, MSF and other groups have recently reported increasing di culty in the ability of aid workers to move around the country, or even enter it in the  rst place. Access for civilians to medical facilities is also deteriorating, as internal lines harden, sometimes cutting o villages and towns from their nearest clinics and hospitals.

“Traveling further costs money, which

people o en don’t have,” said McCluskey. “So people stay put until something goes very badly wrong.  is is one factor behind a recent increase in newborn deaths we’ve seen, even as the incidence of cholera has been going down.”  e U.N. medical airli in February was a small step in the right direction, but it will take a lot more than a mercy  ight for a handful of sick Yemenis to cure the country.

To that end, the United Nations will launch a new humanitarian appeal for Yemen this month.  e hope is that the appeal generates a response not only among international donors, but also among the warring parties on the ground — in the form of greater access both in and out of the country, and a return to the conference table, rather than the frontlines.  at was the message Mark Lowcock, the U.N. emergency relief coordinator, made last October when he gave an update on Yemen to the U.N. Security Council.

Lowcock praised a surge in donations from Saudi Arabia and the UAE that he said “will allow humanitarian agencies to continue keeping millions of people alive.  is is cause for optimism. But there is much more to do if our aim is not just to reduce people’s su ering, but to end it altogether.”

“ e only way to achieve that,” he said, “is to stop the war.” W D

Jonathan Gorvett (jpgorvett.com) is a contributing writer for  e Washington Diplomat and a freelance journalist specializing in Near and Middle Eastern a airs.

Follow The Diplomat Connect at www.washdiplomat.com.

Taking the Reins

Croatia Assumes EU Presidency as Bloc Navigates Brexit, Migration, Tensions with Trump

BY DERYL DAVIS

any people know the distinctively horseshoe-shaped nation of Croatia for several things: As the dramatic medieval backdrop for “Game of rones”; as the originator of the modern necktie (the cravat, derived from a kerchief worn by 17th-century Croat cavalrymen); as a European sports powerhouse, bat tling France for the World Cup title in 2018; and as the birthplace of luminaries such as inventor and futurist Nikola Tesla. Even explorer Marco Polo, widely assumed to have been born in Venice, may have in fact been born on one of Croatia’s 1,000-plus islands.

Now, the small country of 4 mil lion hopes to bring some of the same grit and entrepreneurial spirit to its tenure as head of the European Union presidency until June 30, 2020. is marks the rst time that Croatia, the EU’s youngest member, has assumed the rotating six-month presidency, and it does so at a moment of signicant change and challenge for the bloc, from the Brexit divorce to migration pres sures on Europe’s southern borders to transatlantic trade wars and global security threats.

Yet the EU presidency no longer wields the clout it once did, and the priorities each nation spells out for its presidency oen read like a mindnumbing list of bromides and buzz words. Croatia’s list is no dierent, pledging a “Europe that develops, a Europe that connects, a Europe that protects and an inuential Europe.”

But behind the dry diplo-speak, Croatia plans to take on some of the most urgent challenges bedeviling the bloc. at includes tackling climate change; creating an integrated energy market; developing a sustainable mi gration policy; responding to terrorism, cyber threats, fake news and populism; elevating the EU’s status on the world stage as a top trading partner; and serving as a forceful advocate for its Balkan neighbors to one day join the EU — just as Croatia itself did during the last wave of expansion in 2013.

But rst, Croatia’s ambassador in Washington, Pjer Šimunović, says one of his country’s most important jobs will be “simple, yet not always easy to do” — to help EU nations and their ministers really get to know one an other.

“We’re really good at convening, at bringing people together,” Šimunović said of his Balkan nation, which has stood at a crossroads of Europe for centuries and is now a popular destina tion for tourists from around the globe. Šimunović said that “it takes time and eort” to make real connections and that a large part of Croatia’s role will be “to preserve the human chemistry” M

Europe can play a role on the global scene with its values, its ability to act, but Europe and America acting together, that’s when things get done. PJER ŠIMUNOVIĆ ambassador of Croatia to the United States “ ” PHOTO: LAWRENCE RUGGERI

between European ministers and civil servants as they become more famil iar with each other. As the most recent EU parliamentary elections were held last May, many MEPs are still relatively fresh on the job and many are working together for the rst time.

Šimunović said that another im portant role of the EU presidency is building consensus among the EU’s 27 — until recently 28 — member states. On that note, the EU faces the unprecedented challenge of navigating what Šimunović calls “the Brexit divorce,” with the United Kingdom becoming the rst-ever nation to withdraw from the European economic and political union.

While the U.K. formally le the EU on Jan. 31, the next eleven months will be critical in negotiating the terms of their future relationship. Much, includ ing trade, security, cross-border movement and the status of foreign nationals, will have to be worked out. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set an ambitious — some say unrealistic — deadline to conclude a massive trade deal with the EU by December 2020 or else the U.K. will walk away without a deal in place, essentially setting up an other Brexit-style do-or-die cli.

Šimunović believes that Croatia can help keep a steady hand on what are sure to be contentious negotiations.

“Part of our job is ensuring that the divorce is passing alimony in a friendly fashion,” Šimunović said with a touch of humor. “We have to preserve those things that are of mutual benet, and there are a full spectrum. e U.K. was a fundamental part of the European Union, and we have to disentangle that very judiciously and very gradually. It’s in everybody’s interest to preserve our friendship and our alliances, such as in NATO. We’re tied defense-wise and also economically. So, if the U.K. le with bitterness, it would be a tragedy. We will employ all the instruments we have to reach the best possible solution [to Britain’s exit].”

Šimunović notes that the issue of the Northern Irish border is one of the thorniest and has yet to be resolved (also see “Messy Divorce: With Irish Backstop Gone, How Will Northern Ireland Move Forward Aer Brexit Breakup?” in the February 2020 is sue). However, the ambassador is con- dent that both the EU and the U.K. will not let that undermine the peace established in Northern Ireland since the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Šimunović himself was a correspondent in Belfast during some of the last years of e Troubles in the early 1990s.

at’s when the ambassador worked as a foreign aairs correspondent for the Večernji list, a daily Croatian newspaper, and later as a journalist for BBC World Service Radio before transition

In a stunning underdog performance, the Croatian national soccer team came in second at the 2018 World Cup. PHOTO: BY KREMLIN.RU, CC BY 4.0

Croatia CONTINUED • PAGE 15

ing into diplomacy in 1998.

Since then, he has served as deputy head of mission at the Croatian Embassy in France; national coordinator for NATO at the Ministry of Foreign Aairs; director and then state secretary of defense policy at the Ministry of De fense; ambassador to Israel; and director of the Oce of the National Security Council in Zagreb before arriving in Washington in the fall of 2017. Along with Brexit, Šimunović says another top priority for Croatia’s EU presidency will be the establishment of a multiannual nancial framework, i.e. the all-important joint budget. e proposed EU budget of just over €1.2 billion will cover the period from 2021 to 2027 and is an increase from the previous budget, in part because of the loss of the U.K. but also to fund initiatives to address newer challenges such as climate change, migration, youth unemployment, digi tization and defense. Croatia will have to work to nd consensus on a budget that takes into account the eects of Brexit as well as the probable inclusion into the EU of candidate countries Albania and North Macedonia.

“It can be very tricky, very touch and go,” Šimunović said of the budget negotiations. “With the recent elections [for the European Parliament], it hasn’t been resolved who is contributing how much and for what. It’s now up to the present European Commis sion and the presidency to smooth out the rough edges and guide discussions to nd the most fruitful common denominator.”

For Croatia, one of its most personally important priorities will be working to help two of its Balkan neighbors one day join the bloc. e ambassador said this will entail ensuring that any expansion of the EU is sustainable while at the same time reducing economic and social gaps between and within countries. is can be a special challenge when welcoming poorer states into the bloc, such as the two current Balkan candidates, Albania and North Macedonia, which were set to begin accession talks with the EU late last year.

But the two countries were caught o guard when French President Emmanuel Macron blocked them from starting talks on the grounds that the EU expansion process needed to be reformed and that both countries needed to make more progress in areas such as migration.

It was a big blow to Western Balkan nations, which had been told since 2003 that if they undertook reforms, they could one day join the EU. In particular, it was seen as a betrayal to North Macedo nia, whose government took a signicant risk in resolving a 30-year name dispute with Greece to qualify for eventual EU membership.

Jean-Claude Juncker, thenpresident of the European Commission, called Macron’s opposition “a historic error.” Other EU ocials warned that abandoning the Balkans would leave them vulnerable to Russian and Chinese inu ence, and that accession talks give the EU leverage to demand tough reforms.

But one of Macron’s arguments was that once accession talks formally begin, the EU in fact loses its leverage to eect change. Indeed, many still criticize the decision to let Bulgaria and Romania into the bloc in 2007 given that both still struggle with cor ruption and the rule of law.

e EU has tried to assuage Macron’s concerns and last month announced a proposal that would give existing EU member states more power to suspend or reverse the process of admitting new members if they were backsliding on their commitments, or even force countries to restart entry talks in some policy areas. e plan has sparked hope that Macron will drop his opposition and that accession talks for Alba nia and North Macedonia can move forward this spring.

at’s precisely what Šimunović is pushing for.

“We are promoting the value of enlarging the European Union for stabilizing unstable regions,” the ambassador said of the Western Balkans and

BY BENGT NYMAN FROM VAXHOLM, SWEDEN - DUBROVNIK D81_4034, CC BY 2.0

The city of Dubrovnik, where “Game of Thrones” was filmed, is one of Croatia’s most popular destinations. Tourism accounts for up to 20% of the country’s GDP.

Above, Croatia hosts a meeting on competitiveness in Zagreb on Feb. 4 as part of its European Union presidency. This marks the first time that the Baltic nation has held the rotating presidency since joining the EU in 2013. PHOTO: JOSIP REGOVIC / PIXSELL / EU2020HR

Albania and North Macedo nia in particular. “But they have to fulll the terms of the accession process.”

Šimunović, who was Croatia’s chief negotiator in its application to NATO, describes the EU accession process as “like a boot camp,” with multiple inspections and negotiations over “grace periods” when deadline extensions become necessary. In May, Croatia will host an EU-Western Balkans summit to address

these issues with prospective members. At that meeting, Šimunović said the message will be “[t]he door is open for you, but you have to under take reforms, meet agreedupon standards, tackle issues of corruption, meet a level of economic development, human rights and an independent judiciary. ere are a lot of issues which we have to work with once we open negotiations,” Šimunović said. “It gets serious.” Another serious issue fac ing not only the EU at large, but also Croatia specically, is migration. In 2015, nearly 1 million undocumented migrants, largely from North Africa and the Middle East, made their way to Europe through Turkey, Greece, Italy and Hungary. e crisis ebbed when the EU struck a deal with Turkey to curb migration and European countries be gan sealing their borders.

But with renewed vioPHOTO: EUROPEAN UNION 2013 - EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

lence in Syria and Libya, and Turkey threatening to open the oodgates if the EU does not deliver on the funds it reportedly promised, Europe’s refugee crisis could easily reignite — potentially on Croatia’s doorstep.

Indeed, today migrants are increasingly turning to the less tightly controlled Bosnian-Croatian border to make their way to the rest of Europe. “Two years ago, just 750 migrants were recorded passing through Bosnia. In 2019, that gure rose to about 29,000 — most of them eeing conict or poverty in Afghanistan, Iraq, Morocco and Pakistan,” wrote Patrick Kingsley in a Jan. 24 article for e New York Times.

But the article says that migrants who make it past the hills and mountains that line the Bosnian border “are usually met with a brutal response by the Croatian authorities.” Recent reports from groups such as Human Rights Watch have accused Croatian authorities of arresting, summarily deporting and, in some cases, beating migrants who arrive in their territory without documentation — charges the Croatian government strongly rejects.

“Accusations that Croatia is treating migrants in a particularly aggressive fashion, that’s certainly not the case,” Šimunović insisted. “If there have been instances of abuse, they have been thoroughly investigated and acted upon.” Šimunović pointed out that Croatia accepted its legal quo ta of foreign asylum seekers in 2015 and continues to do so today. “We provide them the means to restart their lives and centers for accepting those seeking asylum. But what we are facing these days on our border with Bosnia is mounting pressure, almost 10,000 people,” Šimunović said of the new inux of un

documented migrants.

“We are a country of 4 million. Look at the numbers of people on the move. We don’t want to be a frontline state having to face all of that all alone, and at the same time, we don’t want to build new walls in Europe, particularly with Bosnia, which is a very friendly country.”

He added that “the European Commission should be able to create [better] conditions where [the migrants] are coming from so that they will return. Unfortunately, that’s not happening.”

 e ambassador suggested that a pan-European policy on migration is still sorely needed, especially for countries like Croatia that are carrying the brunt of the current in ux.

While migration has been a divisive topic among EU member states, trade has driven a wedge between the whole of Europe and the U.S. under President Trump, whose disagreements with Brussels on not only trade, but also defense spending, Iran and climate change have strained the traditionally strong transatlantic alliance (also see “European Union’s New Envoy Says Bloc Will Weather Transatlantic Storm” in the June 2019 issue).

Since coming to o ce, Trump has slapped tari s on a range of EU products such as wine, aircra parts, steel and aluminum, prompting the bloc to respond with its own retaliatory tari s. Most of the president’s attention, however, has been focused on his trade battle with China, and so far, he has refrained from hitting Europe’s all-important auto sector with tari s ever since a trade détente was reached in mid-2018. But the EU still looms large in Trump’s crosshairs as he presses for more access to Europe’s coveted agricultural market — one of the most sensitive issues for the bloc. In recent weeks, the EU and U.S. have been reportedly discussing a “mini” trade deal to cool tensions, although details are scarce and agriculture remains an enormous obstacle.

“It’s no secret that the issue of trade has

Independence Day Oct. 8 (1991) Location Southeastern Europe, bordering the Adriatic Sea and Ionian Sea, between Greece to the south and Montenegro and Kosovo to the north

Capital Zagreb

Population 4.2 million (July 2020 estimate)

Ethnic groups Croat 90.4%, Serb 4.4%, other 4.4% (including Bosniak, Hungarian, Slovene, Czech and Romani), unspecified 0.8% (2011 estimate)

Religious groups Roman Catholic 86.3%, Orthodox 4.4%, Muslim 1.5%, other 1.5%, unspecified 2.5%, not religious or atheist 3.8% (2011 estimate)

GDP (purchasing power parity) $102 billion (2017 estimate)

GDP per-capita (PPP) $24,700 (2017 estimate)

GDP growth 2.8 percent (2017 estimate)

Unemployment 12.4 percent (2017 estimate) Population below poverty line 19.5 percent (2015 estimate)

Industries Chemicals and plastics, machine tools, fabricated metal, electronics, pig iron and rolled steel products, aluminum, paper, wood products, construction materials, textiles, shipbuilding, petroleum and petroleum refining, food and beverages, tourism

SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACTBOOK

emerged as a point of friction,” Šimunović said. “ e EU as a whole has had to take adequate measures to protect itself” against U.S. tari s. “So the whole cycle should be stopped, and we should be able to  nd a set of agreements to ensure a level playing  eld between the two biggest markets in the world. Despite what’s in the news, we are still by far the main partners when it comes to trade exports.”

Šimunović believes that a January meeting between EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan and President Trump represents “a fresh start” in bilateral economic relations. “It was primarily about … reversing the existence of tari s and establishing a fair, free market space across the Atlantic, respecting the interests of both sides,” he said. As Croatia’s ambassador to the U.S., it is no surprise that Šimunović has good things to say about the overall relationship between the EU and the United States. “ e U.S. is an indispensable country in terms of global leadership,” he told us. “Europe can play a role on the global scene with its values, its ability to act, but Europe and America acting together, that’s when things get done.  e uniqueness of the ideas that the United States stands for, its strength, its global reach, its promotion of human rights, religious rights, free market economy, protection of the environment, that’s indispensable.” But on the environmental front, the EU and U.S. have diverged sharply under Trump, who in 2017 announced he would withdraw from the landmark Paris climate accord. Despite America’s absence, however, the EU has pressed ahead as a leader in the global  ght against climate change, a key plank of Croatia’s presidency.

It’s an issue that hits close to home. Croatia’s booming tourist industry attracted almost 650,000 U.S. visitors last year, drawn by the country’s historic cities and stunning perch above the Adriatic Sea. (Reader’s note: the famed King’s Landing from “Game of  rones” was  lmed in medieval Dubrovnik, overlooking the Adriatic.) At last year’s U.N. General Assembly, then-Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović emphasized the importance of protecting the environment and putting a stop to human-caused pollution in the Adriatic Sea, which is so crucial to Croatia’s image and economic livelihood.

“It’s important to us all,” Šimunović said. “ e Adriatic is very fragile, but it is an essence of who we are. It provides our identity and the source of our biggest industry.” Any signi cant rise in sea level, Šimunović warned, could “fatally jeopardize” cities like Dubrovnik.

“Croatia can provide an example for others,” the ambassador suggested. “If [protecting the environment] is important for us, it should be for everybody. We just have a singular interest in advocating for it.”

Indeed, Croatia is drawing more visitors than ever before. It contests much larger countries in world sporting events (like that 2018 World Cup  nal). It is helping its fellow nations in the European Union take the next steps into a new, if somewhat uncertain, future. And it is still showing the world how to dress for success, à la cravat, which makes some people — especially men — happier than others. About that (i.e. the necktie), Croatia’s ambassador is fairly stoic. “It’s our brand, really,” h e said. “So we have to wear it. Unfortunately.” W D

Deryl Davis is a contributing writer for  e Washington Diplomat.

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