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from The Washington Diplomat - March 2020

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Palestine CONTINUED • PAGE 21

• e Muslim holy places will continue their custodianship under Jordan, while the Christian holy places will be overseen by a new custodial council made up of representatives of the Vatican, Palestine, Russia, Greece and the Armenian, Coptic, Anglican and Lutheran churches. Jews will have unhindered access to the Jewish holy places in Jerusalem and throughout the West Bank. No one will be denied access to the holy places per the existing status quo arrangements. • No expropriation of Palestinian lands or expansion or building of new settlements will be allowed from this date forward. e only building allowed in settlements will be the completion of existing semi-built structures. No building will be allowed in settlements deemed “illegal” or without license by current Israeli law. (Under Trump’s peace plan, Israel would agree to a four-year “land freeze,” during which time it would limit settlement construction while Palestinian leaders consider the proposal.) • A cooling-o period will be provided to both sides to study the Trump peace plan and the Palestinian countero er until Nov. 15, 2020. Shortly therea er, nal status negotiations will begin and both sides will have until Dec. 31, 2023, to complete those negotiations and agree on all the terms of the nal peace agreement. • All outstanding issues that reach a point of impasse will be decided by a panel of ve mediators — two selected by Israel, two selected by Palestine and one selected by both sides. e panel will be established by Nov. 15, 2020, and its mandate will end by Dec. 31, 2023.

ese are the highlights of what a Palestinian countero er could in theory look like. Many points — in particular, only making modest adjustments to pre-1967 borders to ensure a contiguous Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital — have been reiterated in past peace proposals supported by the international community and the U.S.

CONSEQUENCES OF PALESTINIAN REFUSAL TO PRESENT A COUNTEROFFER

Trump has said his plan is a “historic opportunity” for the Palestinians to achieve an independent state and that a er 70 years of little progress, “this could be the last opportunity they will ever have.”

Meanwhile, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the main architect of the plan, urged the Palestinian leadership to “stop posturing” and come to the table, telling CNN that, “It’s a big

opportunity for the Palestinians, and they have a perfect track record of blowing every opportunity they’ve had in their past.” As widely predicted, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas immediately rejected Trump’s peace plan, dismissing it as the “slap of the century.” Some observers speculate the plan was designed to be so tilted in favor of Israel that the Palestinians had little choice but to reject it, allowing the Trump administration to blame them for walking away.

at is exactly why the Palestinians should present a countero er or proposal of their own. e consequences of not doing so could be profound.

Currently Israel is in full physical control of all of historic Palestine. Abbas cannot go from Ramallah to Bethlehem without “coordinating” his travels with the Israelis. Essentially, Israel exercises unfettered control from the river (Jordan) to the sea (Mediterranean).

Israel has the upper hand militarily to do whatever it wants in the West Bank and, to an extent, in the Gaza Strip. If it chooses to expand a settlement, it can. If it chooses to con scate a Palestinian piece of land, it can. If it chooses to impose a curfew in any area, it can. If it chooses to cut o one area in the West Bank from another, it can. What can the Palestinian Authority do in response? Nothing. It is powerless.

If the Palestinians do not present a countero er, it will be construed as “the thousand no’s” that characterized Abbas’s initial response to Trump’s peace plan. at is all the pretext Israel needs to annex whatever settlements they want in the West Bank. ey can proceed with their plan to annex the Jordan Valley as well.

Israel already annexed East Jerusalem. What were the Palestinians able to do to stop them? Nothing. If Israel proceeds with these new annexations, it can create facts on the ground that might, over time, become irreversible. Is the current Palestinian leadership willing to take that chance?

Moreover, as long as Trump is president, Israel is protected from any adverse U.N. Security Council resolutions, even those that have had U.S. support under previous administrations. Already, Abbas’s attempt to push a Palestinian resolution at the United Nations condemning Trump’s peace plan has been watered down and postponed — a victory for the administration’s e orts to scuttle the resolution. (Abbas has said he is willing to negotiate with Israel directly but not with the U.S. as the sole mediator and not based on Trump’s peace plan.)

e Palestinians can emphatically reject Trump’s initiative but, the smart thing to do, is to o er an alternative so that it is viewed by allies as a constructive move toward a resolution of the con ict. Presumably, such a counteroffer will force Israel not to implement its threats to annex the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in the West Bank because the United States has invited the Palestinians to present a countero er (and signaled that it’s open to making changes to the plan if Palestinians come to the table).

From a Machiavellian perspective, the success of Trump’s peace proposal hinges on the Palestinians’ refusal to accept that proposal but, more importantly, their refusal to submit a counterproposal. Imagine what would happen to Israel’s political landscape if the Palestinians submit a counterproposal that would force Israel to sit down and negotiate over the new terms. Israeli in ghting could easily scuttle any prospects for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form an annexationist rightwing government.

Israel would come under immense pressure not only from the Europeans, Russia and the U.N., but also from the United States to avoid taking any action before considering the Palestinian countero er. is could potentially lead to serious negotiations that would break the decades-long impasse, which is ostensibly the Trump administration’s goal.

In his deep desire to go down in history as a peacemaker, and possibly win a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump might be forced to lean heavily on the Israelis to compromise to make a peace agreement work. at would clearly be in the Palestinians’ favor.

If the Israelis refused, the world, including quite possibly the United States, would point the nger at them for their intransigence. And the United States will be put in a position not to support Israel’s annexation of any settlements, let alone the Jordan Valley. Bishara A. Bahbah was editor-in-chief of Al-Fajr, a Jerusalembased Palestinian newspaper, and served as a member of the Palestinian delegation to multilateral peace talks. In addition, he was a professor at Bethlehem and Al-Quds Universities, and he taught at Harvard University, where he was the associate director of its Middle East Initiative. W D WASHINGTON FINE PROPERTIES, LLC Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas holds up a map showing Israeli settlements carving up Palestinian territory in the West Bank during a Feb. 11 U.N. Security Council meeting follow the release of President Trump’s peace plan. CREDIT: UN PHOTO / ESKINDER DEBEBE