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Palestine CONTINUED • PAGE 21
• The Muslim holy places will continue their custodianship under Jordan, while the Christian holy places will be overseen by a new custodial council made up of representatives of the Vatican, Palestine, Russia, Greece and the Armenian, Coptic, Anglican and Lutheran churches. Jews will have unhindered access to the Jewish holy places in Jerusalem and throughout the West Bank. No one will be denied access to the holy places per the existing status quo arrangements. • No expropriation of Palestinian lands or expansion or building of new settlements will be allowed from this date forward. The only building allowed in settlements will be the completion of existing semi-built structures. No building will be allowed in settlements deemed “illegal” or without license by current Israeli law. (Under Trump’s peace plan, Israel would agree to a four-year “land freeze,” during which time it would limit settlement construction while Palestinian leaders consider the proposal.) • A cooling-off period will be provided to both sides to study the Trump peace plan and the Palestinian counteroffer until Nov. 15, 2020. Shortly thereafter, final status negotiations will begin and both sides will have until Dec. 31, 2023, to complete those negotiations and agree on all the terms of the final peace agreement. • All outstanding issues that reach a point of impasse will be decided by a panel of five mediators — two selected by Israel, two selected by Palestine and one selected by both sides. The panel will be established by Nov. 15, 2020, and its mandate will end by Dec. 31, 2023. These are the highlights of what a Palestinian counteroffer could in theory look like. Many points — in particular, only making modest adjustments to pre-1967 borders to ensure a contiguous Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital — have been reiterated in past peace proposals supported by the international community and the U.S.
CONSEQUENCES OF PALESTINIAN REFUSAL TO PRESENT A COUNTEROFFER Trump has said his plan is a “historic opportunity” for the Palestinians to achieve an independent state and that after 70 years of little progress, “this could be the last opportunity they will ever have.” Meanwhile, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the main architect of the plan, urged the Palestinian leadership to “stop posturing” and come to the table, telling CNN that, “It’s a big
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WASHINGTON F I N E P RO P E RT I E S , L L C If Israel proceeds with these new annexations, it can create facts on the ground that might, over time, become irreversible. Is the current Palestinian leadership willing to take that chance? Moreover, as long as Trump is president, Israel is protected from any adverse U.N. Security Council resolutions, even those that have had U.S. support under previous administrations. Already, Abbas’s attempt to push a Palestinian resolution at the United Nations condemning Trump’s peace plan has been watered down and postponed — a victory for the administration’s efforts to scuttle the resolution. (Abbas has said he is willing to negotiate with Israel directly but not with the U.S. as the sole mediator and not based on Trump’s peace plan.) The Palestinians can emphatically reject Trump’s initiative but, the smart thing to do, is to offer an alternative so that it is viewed by allies as a constructive move toward a resolution of the conflict. Presumably, such a counterofCREDIT: UN PHOTO / ESKINDER DEBEBE fer will force Israel not to implement its threats to annex Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas holds up a map the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in the West Bank showing Israeli settlements carving up Palestinian territory in the because the United States has invited the Palestinians to present West Bank during a Feb. 11 U.N. Security Council meeting follow the a counteroffer (and signaled that it’s open to making changes to release of President Trump’s peace plan. the plan if Palestinians come to the table). From a Machiavellian perspective, the success of Trump’s opportunity for the Palestinians, and they have a perfect track peace proposal hinges on the Palestinians’ refusal to accept record of blowing every opportunity they’ve had in their past.” As widely predicted, Palestinian Authority President Mah- that proposal but, more importantly, their refusal to submit a moud Abbas immediately rejected Trump’s peace plan, dismiss- counterproposal. Imagine what would happen to Israel’s politiing it as the “slap of the century.” Some observers speculate the cal landscape if the Palestinians submit a counterproposal that plan was designed to be so tilted in favor of Israel that the Pal- would force Israel to sit down and negotiate over the new terms. estinians had little choice but to reject it, allowing the Trump Israeli infighting could easily scuttle any prospects for Prime administration to blame them for walking away. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form an annexationist rightThat is exactly why the Palestinians should present a counter- wing government. offer or proposal of their own. The consequences of not doing so Israel would come under immense pressure not only from the could be profound. Europeans, Russia and the U.N., but also from the United States Currently Israel is in full physical control of all of historic to avoid taking any action before considering the Palestinian Palestine. Abbas cannot go from Ramallah to Bethlehem with- counteroffer. This could potentially lead to serious negotiations out “coordinating” his travels with the Israelis. Essentially, Israel that would break the decades-long impasse, which is ostensibly exercises unfettered control from the river (Jordan) to the sea the Trump administration’s goal. (Mediterranean). In his deep desire to go down in history as a peacemaker, and Israel has the upper hand militarily to do whatever it wants in possibly win a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump might be forced to lean the West Bank and, to an extent, in the Gaza Strip. If it chooses heavily on the Israelis to compromise to make a peace agreeto expand a settlement, it can. If it chooses to confiscate a Pal- ment work. That would clearly be in the Palestinians’ favor. estinian piece of land, it can. If it chooses to impose a curfew in If the Israelis refused, the world, including quite possibly the any area, it can. If it chooses to cut off one area in the West Bank United States, would point the finger at them for their intransifrom another, it can. What can the Palestinian Authority do in gence. And the United States will be put in a position not to supresponse? Nothing. It is powerless. port Israel’s annexation of any settlements, let alone the Jordan If the Palestinians do not present a counteroffer, it will be Valley. WD construed as “the thousand no’s” that characterized Abbas’s initial response to Trump’s peace plan. That is all the pretext Is- Bishara A. Bahbah was editor-in-chief of Al-Fajr, a Jerusalemrael needs to annex whatever settlements they want in the West based Palestinian newspaper, and served as a member of the Bank. They can proceed with their plan to annex the Jordan Val- Palestinian delegation to multilateral peace talks. In addition, ley as well. he was a professor at Bethlehem and Al-Quds Universities, and Israel already annexed East Jerusalem. What were the Pales- he taught at Harvard University, where he was the associate director of its Middle East Initiative. tinians able to do to stop them? Nothing. MARCH 2020 | THE WASHINGTON DIPLOMAT | 39
