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Special Report
PHOTO BY PRESIDENCY OF ALGERIA /HANDOUT/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES
Will 2022 Be Another Turbulent Year in By Mustafa Fetouri Already Troubled North Africa?
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune casts his ballot at a polling station in Algiers, Algeria on June 12, 2021. Algeria held its first parliamentary elections since the departure of long‐serving President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in 2019 amid tight safety measures due to COVID‐19. THE YEAR 2022 is not expected to be less troubling than the previous year for the North African countries, particularly Libya, Tunisia and, less so, Algeria. The common denominator between the three is the public discontent and stalled political processes in each. Morocco managed to avoid the public eruptions seen in the other three countries. On the other hand, Algeria had its own share of problems with street protests, known as Hirak also called “Revolution of Smiles,” starting in February 2019, and continuing through April 2021. The removal of the former president, organizing of elections, the election of a new president as well as a new parliament appear to have eased the social tensions for now. Most of the old elite were either jailed or are being prosecuted for corruption charges, which was a top demand of the protesters. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, elected in December 2019, came in with a reform agenda enjoying broad public approval. It is not everything the Hirak leaders wanted but it does include most demands for reform and fighting corruption. This helped the country
Mustafa Fetouri is a Libyan academic and freelance journalist. He is a recipient of the EU’s Freedom of the Press prize. He has written ex‐ tensively for various media outlets on Libyan and MENA issues. He has published three books in Arabic. His email is mustafa fetouri@hotmail.com and Twitter: @MFetouri. 44
avoid much of the chaotic and violent scenes witnessed during the “Arab Spring” in neighbors Tunisia to the north and Libya to the east. The current challenges facing all three countries, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, are very similar, centering on democratic transition, unemployment, and security threats from different extremist groups— particularly in Libya. Yet each of the countries has its own internal problems, with the COVID-19 pandemic at the top across the region. Despite that, the three countries failed to develop a common strategy in dealing with the pandemic’s shared health threat although Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia have been members of the Arab Maghreb Union since the 1980s. Unfortunately, that organization has been moribund thanks to endless quarrels between Algeria and Morocco.
INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES FACE ALGERIA Algeria entered 2022 on a positive soul-lifting note thanks to its national football team, which won the Arab World Cup in Doha, Qatar, last December. Such events are always welcomed by the authorities as they provide a distracter from everyday pressing issues like unemployment, which in Algeria has been hovering around 13 percent. The country’s 2022 economic growth is expected to be around 6.5 percent, depending on world energy prices, since oil and gas are the largest GDP drivers. Economic growth, though, is useless if it is not reflected in more job creation and an increase in per capita income. Corruption remains the main hurdle facing Algeria, despite the recent measures that saw dozens of former officials jailed for corruption and squandering public funds. This year Algeria faces at least two new troubling diplomatic agenda items, both of which have the potential to hamper its diplomatic return after years of absence from the regional and international stage. First, the country was to host the summit of the League of Arab States (LAS) in March, which brings together heads of states and governments into what has been, increasingly, merely a LAS debating club, with little substance. That summit was delayed due to COVID-19.
WASHINGTON REPORT ON MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS
MARCH/APRIL 2022
