Will 2022 Be Another Turbulent Year in Already Troubled North Africa?—Mustafa Fetouri

Special Report Will 2022 Be Another Turbulent Year in Already Troubled North Africa? By Mustafa Fetouri

PHOTO BY PRESIDENCY OF ALGERIA /HANDOUT/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune casts his ballot at a polling station in Algiers, Algeria on June 12, 2021. Algeria held its first parliamentary elections since the departure of long‐serving President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in 2019 amid tight safety measures due to COVID‐19.

THE YEAR 2022 is not expected to be less troubling than the previous year for the North African countries, particularly Libya, Tunisia and, less so, Algeria. The common denominator between the three is the public discontent and stalled political processes in each. Morocco managed to avoid the public eruptions seen in the other three countries. On the other hand, Algeria had its own share of problems with street protests, known as Hirak also called “Revolution of Smiles,” starting in February 2019, and continuing through April 2021. The removal of the former president, organizing of elections, the election of a new president as well as a new parliament appear to have eased the social tensions for now. Most of the old elite were either jailed or are being prosecuted for corruption charges, which was a top demand of the protesters.

President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, elected in December 2019, came in with a reform agenda enjoying broad public approval. It is not everything the Hirak leaders wanted but it does include most demands for reform and fighting corruption. This helped the country avoid much of the chaotic and violent scenes witnessed during the “Arab Spring” in neighbors Tunisia to the north and Libya to the east.

The current challenges facing all three countries, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, are very similar, centering on democratic transition, unemployment, and security threats from different extremist groups— particularly in Libya. Yet each of the countries has its own internal problems, with the COVID-19 pandemic at the top across the region. Despite that, the three countries failed to develop a common strategy in dealing with the pandemic’s shared health threat although Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia have been members of the Arab Maghreb Union since the 1980s. Unfortunately, that organization has been moribund thanks to endless quarrels between Algeria and Morocco.

Mustafa Fetouri is a Libyan academic and freelance journalist. He is a recipient of the EU’s Freedom of the Press prize. He has written ex‐tensively for various media outlets on Libyan and MENA issues. He has published three books in Arabic. His email is mustafa fetouri@hotmail.com and Twitter: @MFetouri. INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES FACE ALGERIA

Algeria entered 2022 on a positive soul-lifting note thanks to its national football team, which won the Arab World Cup in Doha, Qatar, last December. Such events are always welcomed by the authorities as they provide a distracter from everyday pressing issues like unemployment, which in Algeria has been hovering around 13 percent. The country’s 2022 economic growth is expected to be around 6.5 percent, depending on world energy prices, since oil and gas are the largest GDP drivers. Economic growth, though, is useless if it is not reflected in more job creation and an increase in per capita income. Corruption remains the main hurdle facing Algeria, despite the recent measures that saw dozens of former officials jailed for corruption and squandering public funds.

This year Algeria faces at least two new troubling diplomatic agenda items, both of which have the potential to hamper its diplomatic return after years of absence from the regional and international stage. First, the country was to host the summit of the League of Arab States (LAS) in March, which brings together heads of states and governments into what has been, increasingly, merely a LAS debating club, with little substance. That summit was delayed due to COVID-19.

President Tebboune, participating for the first time since his election, has already vowed to host what he calls an “inclusive” successful summit. When they meet, there are already a few contentious issues on the agenda, such as Syria’s return to the League; a cause Algeria has been championing since Damascus was expelled from the League a decade ago. But some LAS members feel it is wrong to welcome Damascus back into the Arab fold after all that has happened in Syria since 2011. They believe such a move would amount to rewarding Bashar al-Assad, even though some LAS key members like Saudi Arabia and Egypt have already taken steps to normalize ties with Syria.

In the same context, last August Algeria severed its ties with neighboring Morocco, another LAS member. The surprising Algerian decision came as a result of Morocco’s normalization of ties with Israel, among other things. Former U.S. President Donald Trump urged Morocco to normalize with Israel in return for the U.S. recognition of Rabat’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, which is at the heart of decades-long tense relations between Rabat and Algiers. Algeria was further angered when it learned that Morocco had already bought Israeli drones and counter drones systems. It will be interesting to see if the kingdom is invited to the summit at all.

POWER STRUGGLES IN TUNISIA

For next-door Tunisia, 2022 is likely to be a decisive year for the country’s democratic process, interrupted last July when President Kais Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the government, and took over a wide range of powers without any checks from any elected authority. He promised to return to the democratic process only after a new amended constitution has been voted on, in a referendum planned for July. The next legislative elections, according to President Saied’s confused roadmap, will take place on Dec. 17, 2022—the anniversary of the Tunisian “Arab Spring” in 2010, which ended the rule of former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

Starting in January, President Saied launched what he termed a “public consultation,” mainly through the Internet, to collect citizens’ feedback on a range of issues including a new constitution, new electoral laws and other reforms. President Saied aims to bring back the presidential system but with more powers for the president instead of the hybrid presidential-parliamentary system, which many Tunisians believe has failed the country.

Tunisia was once considered the jewel of the messy “Arab Spring,” but a decade later all the enthusiasm has given way to despair, economic hardship and political turmoil due to an endless power struggle between the president and the parliament. Differences inside the parliament itself intensified even further last year, effectively paralyzing the country, and prompting President Saied to take over. Riding on huge public support, he decided to take state matters into his own hands, promising reform and the eradication of corruption, but he has been very slow and unclear about what remedies—if any—he will offer Tunisians yearning for jobs and stability.

In the meantime, different political factions, mainly members of the suspended parliament, dominated by Islamist Ennahda Party, have opposed the president’s plans from the start. Notably, late last year, they managed to rally support from a large section of Tunisians who think Saied has no real plan to salvage the country. Many think Saied cannot solve Tunisia’s economic stagnation—at the heart of all difficulties facing Tunisians—and charge that he is on the road to becoming a dictator. The eruption of violence is not far away, as a number of high-profile arrests have taken place, including among them top political leaders and former officials.

PHOTO BY CHEDLY BEN IBRAHIM/NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES

A Tunisian protester faces riot police during a demonstration held on the 11th anniversary of the fall of late Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, under a heavy security forces deployment, on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, Tunisia, on Jan. 14, 2022. Protesters oppose President Kais Saied’s suspension of parliament and Tunisia’s economic woes.

LIBYA’S ELECTIONS POSTPONED

Tunisia’s eastern neighbor, Libya, remains in turmoil as it has been for over a decade. The Dec. 24 elections were quietly forgotten, as the fighting political elite failed to agree on the road ahead and even reversed what they had already signed up to do. The presidential elections became even more complicated when some controversial figures registered to run, including Saif alIslam Qaddafi, U.S.-Libyan dual citizen General Khalifa Haftar and the current corruption-implicated Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Furthermore, every major opinion poll predicts Qaddafi junior as the likely winner of presidential elections. The

PHOTO BY ABDULLAH DOMA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Libyans demonstrate against the postponement of the elections in the city of Benghazi on Dec. 24, 2021. Libyans have voiced a mix of frustration and anxiety after elections, part of a U.N.‐led peace process, were postponed. Some had hoped elections would help turn the page on a decade of violence.

Saif al‐Islam Qaddafi, the second son of late Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and his second wife Safia Farkash, at his former home in Vienna, Austria.

late Muammar Qaddafi’s son has spent the last decade either in jail or out of the public eye until he emerged in Sebha to register as a candidate for president.

The elections commission, under enormous pressure to disqualify Qaddafi, went to court to have the former leader’s son kicked out of the race. After the court’s decision, forces loyal to Haftar, stationed in Sebha, closed the courthouse to prevent Qaddafi’s lawyer from appealing his disqualification. Qaddafi’s appeal went ahead and he was reinstated. In the end it became so embarrassing and distracting that both the elections commission and his political foes had to face up to the fact that Qaddafi’s son is a very serious contender and could well win the country’s first ever presidential elections.

This was too much to bear for certain countries and their local proxies. If elections had taken place and Qaddafi won, as expected, it would have been a slap in the faces of countries like the U.S., UK and France, among others, who supported the toppling of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

Worried about such a scenario, the UK Ambassador to Libya, Caroline Hurndall, took to Facebook, on Dec. 5, to remind Libyans that Saif al-Islam Qaddafi still faces extradition by the International Criminal Court to face charges related to suppressing the revolt against his father’s government in 2011. While that’s a fact, from a legal angle, Libya is not party to the court and is not legally obliged to meet its demands. Instead, the ambassador was condemned by Libyans, who called for her removal from the country, forcing the parliament to declare her persona non grata.

With the Dec. 24 elections suspended, Libyans took to social media to also vent their anger and frustration over the delay and demand the immediate announcement of a new election date.

The issue went back to the divided parliament while U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres reappointed his former envoy to Libya, Stephanie Williams, as his top adviser to the country. Faced with the resignation of his envoy for Libya, Slovak diplomat Ján Kubiš, and a U.N. Security Council divided on selecting a new envoy, Guterres had no alternative but to bring back American diplomat Williams, but under a different title that does not need U.N. approval. Williams is credited with bringing Libya its first unity government—the current Government of National Unity headed by Dbeibah. Since her appointment on Dec. 6,

Williams has been actively seeking consensus among Libyan factions on a new election date, different rules governing eligibility of candidates, and revamping laws governing the vote whenever it takes place. To a degree she appears to have revived the political process announcing, on Dec. 11, that elections are likely by June. It has

PHOTO BY JASON FLORIO/CORBIS VIA GETTY IMAGES yet to be seen how far she will be able to go but it is unlikely she’ll give up before reaching some kind of goal. However, Williams has always believed that Libyans, themselves, should step up to the responsibility of rebuilding their country. One thing is clear, however uncertain the political process will be, another civil war in Libya, ending the 2020 ceasefire, is very unlikely. Experts agree that 2022 will be another unsettled year in this unsettled region. ■