BRIEF REFLECTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2019 - Dr. J. Venkateswarlu
1.
SW MONSOON (2019)
Of the total monsoon rains, SW monsoon contributes upto 80%, the remaining 20% from
-
Coastal Karnataka
-
Saurashtra and Kutch
In all, 27 of the 36 meteorological subdivision
NE monsoon, India received SW monsoon
received higher rainfall than in 2018. For the
rainfall of 9683 mm, a departure of +10% from
second consecutive year, the NE region saw
Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall. Till October
lower rainfall with 1114.8 mm. The NMMT
2019 the rainfall was 84% of the normal SW
(Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura)
monsoon.
divisions experienced it, fourth lowest rainfall since 1901.
Thirty main reservoirs in south India (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Kerala, saw 10% average full and the rest 66%
The 2019 season saw relatively lower rainfall in
fill of total live capacity by October.
four other subdivisions being (11th lowest)
Konkan and Goa (4385.8 mm) and west Madhya Pradesh (1384 mm) received their highest rainfall in SW monsoon since 1901 to 2019, five other meteorological subdivisions saw relatively
-
Haryana
-
Delhi
-
Chandigarh
Others include,
high rainfall order being, -
Madhya Maharashtra
-
Jharkhand (13th lowest)
-
East Rajasthan
-
West Uttar Pradesh (17th lowest)
-
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
-
Gangetic West Bengal (20th lowest)
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After drought of 2018, floods occurred in 10 states, worst being Kerala and Bihar. The SW monsoon subdivisional rainfall map of 2019 and that of NE monsoon are placed below.
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2.
CLIMATE CRISIS
With climate change its effect on selected crops is indicated below (Liza Blossom 2019).
Crop
Climate variables
Effect on crop
Rice
-
Rising temperature Fluctuating rainfall
•
Worldwide reduction (upto 10% in rice production and yield
Wheat
-
Increase in temperature
•
Overall Worldwide yield decrease by 6% particularly in north and coastal America and Europe. May increase by 4 to 5 % in East and Central Asia
Oats
-
Rise temperature
•
Crops can be damaged
Barley
-
Warming
•
Yields reduce by 3% - 17% notably in Europe
Corn
-
Increase in temperature
•
Yield reduce upto 10% in USA, Brazil, Ukraine
Sorghum
-
Rising temperature
•
Yield may be reduced upto 10%
Sugarcane
-
Variable
•
Positive effect in Europe
•
Negative effect in Africa and Asia
Chickpea
-
Drought
•
Need to evolve strains to the threats of climate crisis in India
Soybean
-
Variable
•
Positive effect in USA
•
Negative effect in Europe
Rapeseed
-
High temperature Reduced rainfall
•
Yields suffer in most parts of the World
Oil palm
-
High temperature Reduced rainfall
•
Profoundly reduced yields, particularly Indonesia, Brazil, Peru and Columbia
Cotton
-
Rise in temperature Reduced rainfall
•
Rise in temperature benefit in India, China and Turkey
•
Reduced rainfall may affect yields in Pakistan, China, Australia and West USA
Cassava
-
Any change
•
Tolerant
Coffee
-
Temperature rise
•
May suffer in yield particularly in Brazil, Vietnam
Bananas
-
Warming
•
Yield decline over years in India, Brazil, Philippines
Oranges
-
Reduced rainfall
•
Decline in yields in Mediterranean region, Florida in USA
Wine grapes
-
Variable
•
Survives because of great diversity
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in
Malaysia,
3.
COMBATING CIMATE
(c) Global Climate Emergency
CRISIS
In a study by 11,258 scientists from 153 countries (Ripple et al 2019) identified increase
(a) Global Carbon Atlas (NASA) Country
in surface temperature of global surface and
Emission percolation (2017) – Tonnes of CO2
ocean heat and continuing. They indicated a rise in meat consumption and increased Air traffic and reduced global tree cover.
Qatar
49.18
Kuwait
25.24
UAE
24.66
USA
16.24
of Andhra Pradesh. He said from a threshold
Russia
11.76
level of 20 gms / kg soil, presently only 5 g / kg
Japan
9.48
China
6.98
desertification and bring a climate resilence.
India
1.64
Slogan, then is “Save Forest Save Nature”
On another occasion, Ravi Prabhu (2019) talked of biomass carbon energy in Ananthapur district
soil is available. One option is to move to agroforestry. Thus, it is possible to reverse
Forests / Trees provide Food, Oxygen, Rain and Ecological (b) Global shift from Fossil Fuels to Clean Energy • Renewables
are
growing
and
balance
Soil
conservation
and
Timber.
getting
Cheaper (e.g. Solar Energy)
(d) World Food Day
• Cost of rooftop solar is competitive (solar
-
grid parity)
Meenakshi Sushma, 2019
On 16th October 1945, FAO was founded and
• Remarkable progress in energy storage
16.10.2019 is World Food Day. Unfortunately,
(USA, Japan, Germany)
14.8% of world population (195.9 million) are
• The electric grid market is booming
undernourished. India is no better. Of the 119
(waiving/cutting sales tax in China)
countries studied for hunger index, India stands
• Transportation is more efficient and public
at 102 below, Pakistan (94), Nepal (73),
transit is growing (huge investments in
Bangladesh (86) and Sri Lanka (46) during 2019.
public transportation) • Energy efficiency is improving and saving
India, on its own, developed some programmes
money (saving upto 50%)
aiming at nutritional security besides food security. It started with a focus on pearlmillet
“All these lead to a safe and sustainable
and early part of this country and now “Poshan
future – Varun and Krishnan (2019)”
Abhiyaan” – Flagship” programme as a partner in FAO’s Zero Hunger with healthy diets for nutrition and the sustainable development goals 4
with key nutritive interventions and strategies.
generated with the use of fertiliser nitrogen.
With 3 years, a mere 30% of the project funds
Also there
were used.
eutrophication of water bodies with inflow of
was a
growing concern in
phosphorus through sewage and even soil erosion.
I am to bring your notice the much earlier
Phosphate
inducted
nutrients
disorders (e.g. Zinc deficiency) were noted in
efforts of PV Satheesh on rainfed millets for
some areas.
food and nutritional security in Zaheerabad (Medak district), Telangana. Very proud the team won the Equator Prize for 2019 by UNDP
Soil is a living system and healthy soil can be
for their rainfed millet innovative programme.
achieved with adequate soil organic matter (SOM) which is needed for survival and normal activities of soil biota that are mostly
(e) Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF)
heterotrophic and useful in nutrient and water management.
TOP FARM SCIENTISTS ON ZERO BUDGET NATURAL FARMING (ZBNF)
Extensive use of chemicals deplete SOM and
AND POILCY PAPER OF NAAS (2019)
lead to sterile soils losing these synergistic. In other words without adequate SOM would lead to
A few years ago when an attempt was made to
JS
Kanwar
to
systems.
So
dependence on fertilizers to alternatives.
association of India (FAI) called Drs. M.S. and
production
business as usual has to change from sole
launch non-chemical farming, the fertilizer Swaminathan
unsustainable
Palekar’s ZBNF is one approach; which is in
the
practice by some farmers in the productive
headquarters to address the media on the
medium to high rainfall soils of Vidarbha. At this
indispensability of fertilizers in sustainable crop
stage, we like to reiterate that research is not a
production. At that point in time GOI was
proprietary product of Government funded
ready to invest in non-chemical/organic farming
agencies. It could be well within the realm of
on a Pilot scale and that was thwarted.
Civil societies as well as individuals. Even the results of Government funded research are not
Globally there is a growing concern on
adequately/universally adopted even by the
excessive use of fertilizers, nitrogen and
Government agencies. Most of the results of
phosphorus (urea and DAP). The increasing
research are site specific. If ZBNF (a labour
pollution of soil with nitrogen was a serious
intensive, but less costly approach) is not
concern in Europe and in Germany for instance
ideal/adequate,
Government started funding to de-toxicate
alternative
non-chemical
approach could be considered.
nitrogen in farming soils so as to retrieve the soil health and make it live with vibrant and
For instance, in Midwest, north America with
useful soil biota. Added to this is the problem of
the chemical agriculture lead to dust bowl. The
nitrous oxide, a persistent greenhouse gas, 5
no-till agriculture was found to be the answer
So we like to state that research is not, repeat
with more and more stubbles left over and with
not, a proprietary product of Government
much reduced use of fertilizers. In our country,
funded agencies. The research results are site
the rainfed rice production with bueshening
specific and not universal. But the principles are
during early growth phase and leaving residues
widely acceptable. ZNB farming aims at non-
of rice stalks at harvest is an excellent example
chemical agriculture. At best, we accept the
of non-chemical farming. Growing a legume in
principle and adapt alternative forms. If such an
the crop production/rotation and taking deep
approach is not agreeable, we may adopt a mix
rooted crops (castor in Telangana and Niger in
wherein we largely depend on inputs that are
Eastern Ghats) in rotation allowing the roots to
locally available and use little of the external
slough off other examples. Use of blue green
inputs during the first few years of the change.
algae for paddies, green manure or green leaf manure of tree loppings (e.g. Gliricidia, Pongamia)
So, aim at moving from dependence to
are other useful examples.
independence in our production systems.
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