Wow report 2012 final by Wavehill

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research evaluation surveys

Improving and Adding Value in the Welsh A report by Wavehill for Food Centre Wales

Wow Analysis Report 2011 wow

Final Evaluation of the Walk Once a Week (WoW) Scheme

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Acknowledgements We would like to thank all the schools that took part in the surveys upon which this report is based. The report would not have been possible without each of those contributions. Thanks also for the staff at Living Streets for their support.

Report prepared by:

Richard Brooks (MSc), Director

Data analysis by:

Charlotte Ellis (MA), Data Analyst

Statistical modelling by:

Dr Sarah Bulloch

Quality assurance:

Simon Hartwell, Consultant

Client contact:

Jennifer Wiles Jennifer.wiles@livingstreets.org.uk

Version:

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FINAL

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 4 1.

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 6 1.1. 1.2. 1.3.

Overview of findings from the 2012 report ................................................................. 10 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4.

Walking and transport mode ...........................................................................................................22

Regression analysis...................................................................................................... 25 5.1. 5.2. 5.3.

Other modes of transport to school compared..............................................................................17 Transport preferences amongst primary aged children ................................................................18 Distance and barriers........................................................................................................................20

Reference group .......................................................................................................... 21 4.1.

Who took part in the 2012 survey? .................................................................................................10 Does weather affect walking to school rates?................................................................................10 Travel mode to school ......................................................................................................................12 Free school meals as a proxy for deprivation or social status .......................................................14

Comparing travel modes from 2010 to 2012 ............................................................... 16 3.1. 3.2. 3.3.

Method of research ............................................................................................................................ 6 Limitations to the design method...................................................................................................... 7 Discussion around mode of travel options and response rates ...................................................... 8

Method ..............................................................................................................................................25 Analysis ..............................................................................................................................................25 Tables ................................................................................................................................................. 26

Summary of findings ................................................................................................... 27

Appendix i .......................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix ii ......................................................................................................................... 30 Appendix iii......................................................................................................................... 31 Appendix iv......................................................................................................................... 32

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

Executive Summary Living Streets is the national charity working to create safe, attractive and enjoyable streets around the UK, and has been running the Walk to School campaign since 1995. The Walk to School campaign’s aim is simple: to encourage all parents, children and young people to make walking to school part of their daily routine. In 2005, they launched the Walk Once a Week (WoW) scheme in primary schools, which incentives children to walk by rewarding them with collectable pin badges. The WoW project started in London and has since grown to include around 1800 schools across England. The project received approximately £800,000 in funding from the Department of Health (DH) to expand WoW and introduce it to approximately 750 new schools across England. An evaluation of the project was commissioned to run parallel to the two year funding programme 2010-2012. Wavehill is a social research and evaluation specialist which has a ten year history of undertaking community health research, especially that with a focus on promoting physical activity. Wavehill was commissioned to undertake the evaluation of the WoW programme 2010-2012. The key component of this was a pupil survey that took place between June and July and (in some schools) in September after the summer holidays in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Key findings from the 2010 – 2012 evaluation surveys •

Before WoW, schools in our survey had a 43% walking proportion, and after WoW had started schools reached a peak of 59% walking in 2011, falling back to 54% in 2012.

•

Before WoW, schools in our survey had a 43% car use proportion, and in 2012, schools participating in WoW had a 28% car use proportion.

•

In total 61,567 pupil responses were collected across the three years and 6,515 responses from parents and carers.

The method of the survey uses a ‘hands-up’ or ‘stand-up’ survey response in classroom groups. The benefit of this method is that large numbers of surveys can be rapidly undertaken; the weakness is that the data is not associated to each individual. The survey is self-selecting and so schools elect to undertake the survey or not. The survey was undertaken in 239 schools, covering 4,609 classes of children. In total 61,567 children’s views were included in the survey, ranging from school reception year to year 6. The baseline survey in 2010 measured the proportion of children walking to school before their participation in the WoW programme, the 2011 and 2012 surveys measured walking during, or after participation.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

The most important finding is that before WoW in 2010 around 43% of children walked to school, and in 2012 after WoW 54% walked to school. This shows that WoW has increased walking significantly and is having a large and measurable effect within participating schools. It should also be noted that not all children can walk to school due to distance, or parental arrangements, so the effect on those children who have an option or choice of transport mode is also significant. It is also important to note that only 7% of parents of the children living less than one mile from school feel it is too far too walk to school. Consequently, these parents may not require so much persuasion to participate in walking. Especially as only 12% of parents said their children chose their transport method. Therefore, interventions that involve both parents and children within a one mile radius should have strong outcomes because it is not too far and parents donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t need to be persuaded of that fact. Using a combination of WoW themed education and awareness to pupils and parents may increase walking outcomes, however, it would require a pilot project and evaluation research to understand this more deeply. Other findings show that travelling in a car or taxi has fallen from 43% to 28% across the same period. If given a choice, more children would choose to walk in 2012 than 2010 (41% compared to 32%), and fewer would choose a lift (28% compared to 18%). In both 2011 and 2012 teachers were generally supportive of the programme with 90% finding it easy to run, and only 10% finding WoW rather fussy to administrate. The feedback from teachers also showed that there is an opportunity to involve parents/carers more in the scheme and also to provide more social marketing regarding the positive aspects of walking to school which reiterates the point above. Weather had little effect on walking in the 2010 and 2011 surveys, however we suspect the wettest summer in 100 years in 2012 reduced walking to school rates. Social class as measured by Free School Meal (FSM) proportions in participating schools shows that children from schools with a low proportion of FSM are more likely to travel by car, whilst children from schools with a high proportion of FSM are more likely to walk; although this trend has weakened from 2010 to 2012. In summary, the WoW project has been a success and the number of pupils walking to school has increased. The impact is highest in year one, suggesting that the reward and novelty of the badges peaks within 12 months; however, continued use of WoW beyond this initial first year still leads to a sustained increase in walking far above the baseline. Where the numbers of pupils walking to school has increased, then the data shows the use of motorised transport has also fallen. Perhaps the most powerful results are within this category, as active travel has been replacing motorised travel (car and bus), with the latter decreasing from 46% in 2010 to 29% in 2012.

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

1. Introduction The aim of the Walk Once a Week (WoW) project is to encourage more children of primary school age to walk to school rather than using automotive transport options, such as the car. Living Streets provides information to teachers and schools to help promote walking, wall charts to log walking frequency and badges to reward regular walkers. The WoW project is managed by Living Streets, the national charity that stands up for pedestrians. During 2008/09 Living Streets was already running WoW successfully, principally within the Greater London Boroughs, as a result of funding from Transport for London, but also in a few non-London areas as well. The projectâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success was confirmed in an independent evaluation of the scheme by Wavehill published in November 2009. This evaluation is termed WoW1 and is available from Living Streets. Additional funding facilitated the expansion of WoW into more areas outside London between 2010 and 2012. A second evaluation - termed WoW Expansion - was designed to complement this. This is the third report of the WoW evaluation. The first two, covering the 2010 and 2011 survey findings respectively, are available from Living Streets.

1.1.

Method of research

The evaluation of WoW Expansion is based on a survey of participation rates of walking in primary schools. The aim of the evaluation is to measure the impact of the WoW Expansion intervention by surveying walking and travel to school behaviour before the WoW Expansion project, and then after one year of the intervention in 2011 and after two years of the intervention in 2012. A baseline survey was undertaken in 2010, and the surveys in 2011 and 2012 used to determine the change from the baseline survey. The survey is completed in the classroom or assembly setting by all pupils at the same time, using a hands-up response. The teacher or classroom assistant asks each survey question to the whole group as one and then the collective hands-up responses are counted and these aggregated counts reported in the survey response form. The aggregated counts are divided by sex (boys and girls) so that analysis of differences between sexes can be undertaken. The subsequent survey waves have been undertaken at the same time of the school year (mainly June and July) to reduce the effect of daylight hours and weather on walking to school participation. It is also common for some schools to undertake the survey at the return to school in September. It is also worth mentioning that undertaking the survey at the same time of the year to hold stable daylight hours and weather may have been affected by the wettest June / July period in 100 years of weather records during 2012.

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

This report includes an analysis of schools that took part in all three surveys from 2010 through to 2012. This is in order to compare like for like as much as possible. We have called this the reference group and the report annexes compare the distribution of walking across the whole survey to the reference group.

1.2.

Limitations to the design method

Firstly, it is worth noting that the survey design is not a probability sample using randomised selection methods. The participant schools and participant classrooms are self-selecting, in that they are free to opt in, or opt out of this research. This means that there could be some bias within the self-selecting schools and classes. Those classes participating most actively may complete the survey, and those teachers and classroom assistants most engaged by active travel to school may complete the survey more readily. Secondly, weighting of responses is an issue. The distribution of participating schools is not even, as Table 1.11 shows. There are 193 Local Government Districts in England, and our survey only represents ~17% (33/193) of them and the large Metropolitan Borough of Birmingham contains 20% of the schools in the survey. In a larger survey that used a probability sampling method it is common to use a weighting method to re-proportion the survey respondents alongside demographic characteristics in the main population. In this survey we have not used a weighting method as it would not improve the analysis at this stage as the survey is not a randomised method and so should not be inferred that it represents population distributions. Thirdly, the hands-up method can be inaccurate. Children often follow their friends and peers in responding to questions, and often respond to more than one category. They, therefore, get counted in to aggregated scores more than once. This is particularly true in the 2011 survey. Fourthly, by aggregating the scores, individual survey responses are lost. This means that very detailed inferences cannot be made on the population. However schools and classrooms tend to cluster children into age, geographic locality, and social class and so analysis along these social categories is still possible. Finally, the strength to the hands up survey is that it can collect a large data set rapidly and at relatively low cost. The coverage of the survey is high and this gives the analysis a good level of accuracy although it limits the methods of modelling the data.

See appendix i

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

1.3.

Discussion around mode of travel options and response rates

The pivotal question in this evaluation is the one looking at the mode of travel pupils used to get to school; a question intended to show the changes that had taken place over the lifetime of the project. Table 1.1 shows the results of this question for each of the three years. Table 1.1: Mode of travel to school 2010-12

Walked Walked all the way ‘Park and Stride’ Lift by car Bus Bike or scooter Total

2010 43% n/a* 9% 42% 3% 3% 100%

2011 59% 46% 14% 36% 2% 5% 116%**

2012 54% 43% 18% 28% 1% 5% 106%**

Base: 2010 - 25,903 respondents, 2011 18, 952 respondents, 2012 16,798 respondents

* This option was not used in 2010 ** These totals ignore ‘Walked all the way’ so as to compare each year on a like-for-like basis. Readers will note that the Total response rates across the three years vary considerably, so below we identify some of the possible reasons for this (over and above the relative strengths and weaknesses of hands-up surveys noted in section 1.2). 1. Options not mutually exclusive. Across all three years of the survey there was potential for doublecounting (pupils answering more than one option) across ‘Walked’, ‘Park and Stride’ and ‘Lift by car’. This is because pupils may not have seen these options as mutually exclusive (as indeed they were not). The introduction of ‘Walked all the way’ in 2011 was an attempt to remedy this. 2. Introducing ‘Walked all the way’. This option was used in 2011 and 2012, to help differentiate those who walked all the way from those who only walked some (i.e. ‘Park and Stride’). Having first been asked to put their hands up if they ‘Walked’ to school, pupils were then asked to keep their hands up if they ‘Walked all the way’. One would assume that those putting their hands down would match those who later put their hands up to ‘Park and Stride’. But as table 1.2 shows this was not the case, particularly in 2012. It is possible that introducing this option alongside the existing options actually caused some confusion. 3. Order of options. In 2010 and 2011 ‘Park and Stride’ was the last option given, but in 2012 was given third (the same order as in table 1.2). This change to what is arguably a more logical order (and therefore easier for pupils to process mentally) may have affected response rates.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

4. Changing perceptions. As pupils became familiar with the aims of WoW, and with the concept of ‘Park and Stride’, their perception of what is meant by each of the travel mode options may have changed. For example, perhaps pupils did not view ‘Park and Stride’ as a form of walking in 2010, but by 2011 they did; hence pupils using this mode would have put their hand up only to ‘Park and Stride’ in 2010, but to both ‘Walking’ and ‘Park and Stride’ in 2011, which would go some way to explaining the total response rate that year of 116%. 5. Cognition of ‘Park and Stride’. ‘Park and Stride’ is a term used to reflect the concept of a pupil being driven part way to school before being dropped off and walking the rest of the way. However, the concept itself has not been explicitly defined. For example, when does being dropped off near to the school become a ’Park and Stride’ activity, and when does it remain a lift in a car; and how is such a threshold measured? Options such as “keep your hand up if you walk further than 1km / 10 minutes” were discussed but rejected on the basis that pupils’ cognition regarding time and distance can be highly variable. Again, this lack of a precise definition may have affected response rates somewhat. The above considerations notwithstanding, the ‘Walking’ option was asked consistently as the first travel mode option across all three years of the survey, and as a simple gauge of numbers walking it is hard to dispute that there has indeed been an increase. As table 1.2 shows ‘Walking’ increased from 42% in 2010 to a peak of 59% in 2011, before falling back to 54% in 2012.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

2. Overview of findings from the 2012 report 2.1.

Who took part in the 2012 survey?

Surveys were posted to schools on the 3rd July 2012 and the last survey was returned to Wavehill on the 14th September. A total of 638 surveys were received from 106 schools. Schools were interviewed across 26 areas, with the most frequent from Birmingham (20%; 127/638) and Lancashire (17%; 108/638). A total of 16,798 pupils were surveyed; of which 50% (8,462/16,798) were boys, and 50% (8,336/16,798) were girls. Figure 2.1: Shows the proportion of surveys by year group

14%

Year 1

Year 2

17%

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

14%

Reception

Year 6

N = 580

2.2.

Does weather affect walking to school rates?

In the 2010 and 2011 surveys we found that weather had no statistical impact on walking or car use. In 2012, 41% of surveys were undertaken on days that were rainy or showery, 29% were undertaken on a dull day and 29% were undertaken on a day that was fair or sunny. Table 2.1 illustrates that there were the highest percentage of surveys completed on rainy days in the 2012 survey.

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

Table 2.1: Weather by year of survey

Sunny Fair Dull Showery Rainy

2010 12% 13% 48% 17% 9%

2011 30% 25% 26% 12% 7%

2012 14% 15% 29% 22% 19%

Base: 2010 - 25,903 respondents, 2011 18, 952 respondents, 2012 16,798 respondents

It is particularly pertinent to consider weather in the 2012 survey because of the high number of rainy days which could have an impact on the level of children walking to school. The Met Office confirmed June was the wettest month for over a century in the UK2 and in July, some areas saw over 250% of their average July rainfall3. Overall, the summer of 2012 was the wettest in 100 years4. Figure 2.2 is reproduced from Met Office data and shows the level of rainfall in England across 2012 compared to the 20 year average. This shows that in July, England received 182% of its average rainfall. Figure 2.2: Reproduction of rainfall chart from Met Office UK 2012 – Rainfall (1981 – 2010) anomalies for 2012

Percent of 1981 - 2010 average [%]

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Series1

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

232

182

126

118

137

239

173

Source: See footnote #2

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/wettest-June http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/some-areas-already-received-over-250-of-average-july-rainfall/ 4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19427139 3

WoW Analysis Report 2012

More frequent rain may have affected walking to school rates. By means of validation we can look at studies into the effects of weather on physical activity. In a study undertaken in 2006 by Chan et al. each of the 202 participants were given a pedometer and findings showed that the number of steps decreased rapidly for small amounts of rain. This suggests, regardless of rain patterns, if it is raining, then the majority of people reduce the amount of walking they undertake. [1] A subsequent study into weather effects on children’s physical activity and participation in play, sports and active travel interviewed 365 children and this study showed that higher rainfall was associated with lower physical activity in the morning.[2] Conversely, data from Sport England’s Active People Survey on the number of people walking at least 30 minutes at least 4 times in the last four weeks, (equivalent to once a week) shows that although the weather may have had a negative impact on recreational walking, it had no negative impact on walking overall. Therefore, perhaps it is fair to conclude that walking rates are subject to a range of external factors and although weather is a contributing factor its impact on walking is varied.

2.3.

Travel mode to school

As table 2.2 below shows, a total of 54% (9,144/16,798) of pupils interviewed walked to school on the day the survey was undertaken; 54% (4,494/8,336) of girls and 55% (4,650/8,462) of boys walked to school. Table 2.2: Walking to school proportions by gender

Girls Boys Total

Pupils 8336 8462 16798

Walked to school 4494 4650 9144

% walked to school 53.9 55.0 54.4

Of the children who walked to school 79% (3,551/4,494) of girls and 80% (3,718/4,650) of boys walked the whole way to school. There is no statistical difference between the walking proportions of boys or girls.

[1]

Chan et al. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity 2006 3:21 A Goodman J Paskins, R Macket Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; 2Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, London, UK

[2]

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Table 2.3 below illustrates 28% (4,642/16,798) of all the respondents interviewed got a lift to school on the day the survey was undertaken; 29% (2,422/8,336) of girls and 26% (2,220/8,462) of boys. Comparing by gender, girls are more likely to get a lift to school than boys and the difference is statistically significant; (G 3.8; B 3.48; p < .01). It is possible that social attitudes to the safety of girls travelling compared to boys may help account for the differences in rates. Table 2.3: Car / taxi / lift to school by gender

Girls Boys Total

Pupils 8336 8462 16798

Got a lift to school 2422 2223 4645

% got a lift to school 29.1 26.3 27.7

Sixty-two per cent (10,481/16,798) of pupils said they walked once a week in order to get a WoW badge and of the children who walked to school on the day of the survey 62% (10,448/16,798) said they would walk to school anyway regardless of whether they would get a badge. A total of 84% (14,135/16,798) of pupils surveyed had heard of WoW. In the 2012 survey, 74% (11,392/16,798) of children said they live close enough to school to walk compared to 26% of children who said they live too far from school to walk (4,103/16,798). Although this is a subjective assessment of the ease and difficulty of walking to school, it does also show that if 72% of children feel that they live close enough to school to walk and 62% are already walking, then only around 10% (72%-62%) are not walking even though they do not perceive distance as a barrier. The table below shows the mean values for the perception of pupils as to whether school was near enough or too far. There is no statistical difference between the two groups. Table 2.4: Change in perception as to the distance of school being walkable 2011 Mean Too far 0.25 Close enough 0.63 N = 2012 - 4379, 2011 - 3339

SD 0.14 0.22

2012 Mean 0.23 0.64

SD 0.11 0.18

Finally, 22% (3,415/15,335) of pupils agreed with the statement that the ‘roads are too dangerous to walk’ this is compared to 78% of pupils who agreed with the statement that the ‘roads were safe enough to walk’.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

2.4.

Free school meals as a proxy for deprivation or social status

Free school meals are provided for the children of families who are either receiving benefits, or whose family income is below a poverty threshold. The details are given in the box below. Box 2: Free school meals entitlement If you live in England or Wales you can get free school meals for your child if you or your partner gets one of the following: • • • • • • •

Income Support Income-based Jobseeker's Allowance Income related Employment and Support Allowance Support under Part VI of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999 The Guarantee element of State Pension Credit Child Tax Credit, provided they are not entitled to Working Tax Credit and have an annual income (as assessed by HM Revenue & Customs) that does not exceed £16,190 Working Tax Credit 'run-on' - the payment someone may receive for a further four weeks after they stop qualifying for Working Tax Credit

Source; UK government web site www.direct.gov.uk

The number of free school meals is recorded and reported on a school by school basis annually in the schools census. This is then converted into a proportion (percent), by dividing the number of free school meal eligible children by the total pupil population of the school. A school with a high proportion of free school meals is considered to have more deprivation, and lower socio-economic class status, than one with a lower proportion of free school meals. To make the analysis simpler the FSM percent was subclassified into 4 equal quartile groups, Category 1 being the schools in the least income deprived communities (richer) and Category 4 in the most income deprived (poorer). Table 2.4: Table explaining quartiles and category numbering Quartile Group 0% to 25% 25% to 50% 50% to 75% 75% to 100%

Quartile Cut Point % 5.7 11.9 21.2

Category 1 2 3 4

The 2011 data showed a statistically significant negative relationship between the proportions of children receiving free school meals and the number of children walking to school; i.e. the number of children in the classes with the highest proportion of children receiving free school meals are significantly more likely to walk to school than those children in a class with a lower proportion of children receiving free school meals.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

However, the 2012 data shows a weaker negative relationship between these variables, although still statistically significant (i.e. probably not down to chance.) The correlation relationship between free school meals and walking to school only accounts for 5% of the relationship. However, other factors that could be used to explain the model better, are missing. In summary, the 2011 relationship between free school meals and walking has reduced in importance.

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WoW Analysis Report 2012

3. Comparing travel modes from 2010 to 2012 The clearest indication that the WoW Expansion project is having an impact on walking to school would be, simply, that more children walked to school during the WoW Expansion intervention (2011, 2012) than before (2010). The graph below shows that in 2010 the baseline survey measured ~43% of children walking to school, 2011 ~59% of children walked to school and in 2012 ~54% of children walked to school. Figure 3.1: Pupils who walked into school today split by year

59%

54%

43%

2010

2011

2012

Base: 2010 – 25,895 respondents, 2011 – 18,952 respondents, 2012 16,798 respondents

This significant increase in walking of ~16 percentage points (pp) (or 17 pp depending on gender) is likely to be largely attributable to the WoW Expansion project. This is because other key variables - weather, schools, ages of children walking, genders and social class, have all held relatively stable across the 2010 to 2011 period, as have fuel prices, transport taxes and costs and other factors that may have changed the number of children walking. Earlier it was suggested that weather may have affected walking rates somewhat. In 2010 and 2011 there was little relationship between weather and walking, as tested by a regression of walking and weather variables. However, the extent of the fall in walking proportions between 2011 and 12 suggests there was some influence from the ‘wettest summer on record’. It is also important to consider the ‘plateau effect’, whereby the impact of the WoW intervention peaks and then falls back to a lower level. The reward for walking is a badge, but the badges may have a diminishing impact as the pupils gain more and more (similar) rewards. Both weather and ‘plateau effects’ may have reduced the proportion of school children walking by between 4% and 5% (i.e. to 2012 rates).

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Interestingly, splitting the number of children who said they walked to school on the day the survey was undertaken by gender shows that for both boys and girls, the per cent of children walking to school was the same across the three years. Figure 3.2: Pupils who walked into school today split by gender and year Boys

59% 43%

Girls

59%

55%

54%

42%

2010

2011

2012

Base: 2010 – 25,895 respondents – 13,056 Boys, 12,839 Girls; 2011 – 18,952 respondents – 9,605 Boys, 9347 Girls; 2012 16798 respondents – 8462 Boys, 8336 Girls.

3.1.

Other modes of transport to school compared

The survey also considers other modes of travelling to school than walking. The most notable change in transport mode is the reduction in the ‘lift by car’ variable. This has fallen from 42% before the WoW project to 28% and there is no ‘plateau effect’ or levelling out of the rate of change. The increase observed in children walking is clearly reducing the number of children who get a lift into school within WoW schools. Figure 3.3: Per cent of children getting a lift into school split by gender and year 2010 43%

2011

2012 42%

41%

38%

36%

34% 29%

Girls

28%

26%

Boys

Overall

Base: 2010 - 25,903 respondents, 2011 18, 952 respondents, 2012 16,798 respondents

WoW Analysis Report 2012

The other modes of bus and bike / scooter remain around 6% of the survey and it appears that bike and scooter are increasing in use compared to bus which is declining although their importance in this survey and report is small. Table 3.1: Other modes of travelling to school

Walked Walked all the way ‘Park and Stride’ Lift by car Bus Bike or scooter

2010

2011

2012

42% * 9% 42% 3% 3%

59% 46% 14% 36% 2% 5%

54% 43% 18% 28% 1% 5%

2010 > 2012 12% * 9% -14% -2% 2%

Base: 2010 - 25,903 respondents, 2011 18, 952 respondents, 2012 16,798 respondents * Question was not asked in 2010

3.2.

(Note: Total may not equal 100% due to rounding)

Transport preferences amongst primary aged children

When children are offered a choice of which transport mode they would like to take the results are interesting. There has been a steady increase in the number of children saying that their favourite way to travel to school would be by walking (from 32% in 2010 to 41% in 2012). Conversely there has been a fall in the number of children stating their favourite way to travel would be by bike or scooter (36% in 2012, down from 40% in 2010.) If given a choice active travel would account for around 77% of travel compared to the actual (survey) rate of 59% (walked + bike/scooter). It should be noted that actual active travel by bike or scooter is around 14% (5%/36%) of the potential choice, demonstrating very high latent demand for this option. Preferring to travel to school by car has declined significantly from 28% (2010) to 18% (2012). This is important because it helps to validate the actual fall in travel by car from 42% to 28%, and suggests that walking preference is replacing car preference. However, it should be noted here that the WoW intervention teaches that walking is a positive behaviour, and gets rewarded with badges, and so some responses may be due to ‘social desirability bias’5. This is where respondents give answers they feel are wanted by the survey rather than the true response, in this case walking over car use.

Crowne, D. P., & Marlowe, D. (1960). A new scale of social desirability independent of psychopathology. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 24, 349-354.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

It is hard to totally attribute the fall in the car as a preference to the WoW scheme as it (WoW) does not directly educate against car use. This suggests that other school based travel information and education, and possibly even the costs of running a car, maybe having an effect, as the decline is most significant in the poorer groups when viewed across the four free school meal quartiles, with the mean proportion of children stating car use falling by 29% for the schools in the most income deprived communities, by 17% in the least income deprived communities. Table 3.2: Preferred method of getting to school

Walk Bike or scooter Train or tram Car or bus

2010 32% 40% * 28%

2011 40% 39% 1% 20%

2012 41% 36% 1% 18%

2010 > 2012 9% -4% * -10%

Base: 2010: 25674 respondents, 2011: 18263 respondents, 2012; 16798 respondents

Looking at the data by gender in table 3.3, for boys there has been an 8pp increase in the number stating their preference was to travel by walking and a 9pp fall in the number saying their preference was by car or bus between 2010 and 2012. For girls, walking preferences increased by 11pp and car or bus decreased by 11pp. Discounting social desirability bias shows that attitudes to school travel are changing away from motorised forms towards walking, with active travel on bikes and scooters remaining relatively stable. Table 3.3: Preferred method of getting to school by gender

Walk Car or bus Bike or scooter

2010 Boys Girls 30% 34% 28% 28% 42% 38%

2011 Boys Girls 36% 44% 21% 18% 42% 37%

Base: 2010: 25,674 respondents â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12,989 Boys; 12,685 Girls; Base: 2012: 16798 respondents, 8462 Boys, 8462 Girls.

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2012 Boys Girls 38% 45% 19% 17% 38% 34%

2010 > 2012 Girls change Boys change 11% 8% -11% -9% -4% -4%

Base: 2011: 18263 respondents, 9188 Boys, 9075 Girls.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

3.3.

Distance and barriers

Pupils were asked whether they thought they lived too far from school to walk. Sixty-eight per cent (5708/8336) of girls stated they lived close enough to school to walk and 67% (5684/8336) of boys. Twenty per cent (1657/8336) of girls stated that they thought the roads and pavements were too dangerous to walk to school, compared to 21% (1758/8462) of boys. There is no statistical difference between boys and girls perception of walking distances or danger. The responses given when children were asked to explain the barriers to walking to school are as follows: Table 3.4: Barriers to walking to school

Parents work Live too far away Weather Not enough time / too much of a rush Running late in the morning Dangerous roads / crossings Siblings get dropped off Parents/grandparents can't walk that far I get too tired / legs ache Difficult for parents to take baby / young siblings as well I go to Breakfast Club Can't if my mum has to go somewhere (appointment / gym / shopping)

N 368 354 302 144 180 76 75 59 44 43 33 31

% 63.3 60.9 52.0 24.8 31.0 13.1 12.9 10.2 7.6 7.4 5.7 5.3

N = 581. Responses >5%

‘Parents working’, ‘not enough time’, ‘running late in the mornings’ and so on are all proxies for being driven and dropped near to the school, although the weather was the third most frequent response and already noted as a more prominent factor in the 2012 data.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

4. Reference group One of the issues with the WoW survey method is that schools join and leave the WoW project, and participation is voluntary which adds to variation. Time series surveys such as WoW are most accurate when the study group is held constant. To control for this the following section only includes schools which replied to all three surveys: the 2010 baseline survey and the 2011 and 2012 waves too. This enables us to track the impact of WoW on these schools more accurately than is possible when comparing non-matching groups of schools (as described in the previous chapter report). This cohort is called the reference group. The annexes also contain a table of the main travel variables by overall survey and by reference group; there is little difference between the two sets. In total 24 schools undertook the survey in each of the three years, a total of 499 classes and 13,151 pupils. There were 6,594 boys who undertook the survey, and 6,569 girls, a ratio of 50:50. The mean number of boys for each class was 14, and the mean number of girls was 13. The area profile of these schools can be seen in table 4.1 below; Table 4.1: Area breakdown of classes from the reference group N Birmingham 272 Lancashire 101 Bury 56 Halton 21 Bolton 19 Dudley 16 Walsall 14 Total 499

% 55 20 11 4 4 3 3 100

The most frequent (modal) year group interviewed was year 3, but the year groups ranged from reception to year 7. Schools also undertook a schools travel census in 2010 and so we have compared the proportions that schools reported in the schools census to the proportions in the reference group at baseline (2010). It should be noted that the school census asks the question: ‘How do you usually travel to school’, so is not directly comparable to this survey.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Analysis show the mean value of walkers in the schools census group was 44% (SD 0.11) and the WoW baseline group 47% (SD 0.10), and there was not a significant difference between the two groups of less than p<0.08 t= -1.83. However the schools census did report some outliers, which may suggest some reporting inaccuracies and this is shown in the box plot chart below with outliers indicated with a red + sign. This suggests that the school survey may be less accurate than the WoW survey. Figure 4.1: Box plot chart showing distribution of the schools census reference group and outliers Outlier Boxplot Median (0.422) Outliers > 1.5 and < 3 IQR

0.1

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Proportion of children walking

0.9

N = 24

4.1.

Walking and transport mode

Looking at the mode of transport into school on the day of the survey walking has increased from 44% before WoW to 51% after WoW, but with a peak in 2011 of 59%. Table 4.2: Transport mode split by per cent change from 2010 to 2012 2010 Walk Walked all the way Lift ‘Park & Stride’ Bike/scooter Bus Total

2011

44% (2114) * 44% (2097) 8% (365) 4% (191) 3% (125) 103% (4815)

59% (2338) 46% (1811) 36% (1440) 13% (514) 6% (242) 2% (86) 116% (3969)

2012 51% (2249) 43% (1902) 29% (1289) 15% (652) 5% (211) 1% (50) 101% (4379)

Reference % All data % change change 7% 11% * * -15% -15% 7% 9% 1% 2% -2% -2%

* Question was not asked n = 2010 - 4815, 2011 – 3969 and 2012 – 4379.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

As already explored earlier in this report, there are several factors which need to be addressed when looking to explain the apparent drop in children walking to school, in the reference group between the years of 2010 to 2012. These factors include the weather, and a ‘plateau effect’. • • •

The weather. The summer of 2012, when the survey was undertaken was considered as the wettest summer for over 100 years.6 ‘Plateau effect’. The reward for participation has a diminishing return for participants. Social desirability responses. Children have had walking and ‘Park and Stride’ promoted to them as good behaviours and so they respond to these choices during the survey.

Looking at walking by gender it is clear that no definable gender differences exist, boys and girls walk to school in equal proportions. Table 4.3: Per cent of children walking to school split by gender and year

2010 2011 2012

Boys 44% 61% 51%

Girls 44% 57% 52%

Overall 44% 59% 51%

n = 2010 - 4815, 2011 – 3969 and 2012 – 4379.

In contrast to the increase in walking, table 4.4 below shows the number of children getting a lift to school decreased by roughly a third from 2010 to 2012 and the number of children getting a lift falls in two approximately equal steps of ~ 7%-8% from 2010 to 2012. Note that gender differences are not so pronounced within the reference group, and so lift by gender proportions are not the same as table 2.3. Table 4.4: Per cent of children getting a lift into school split by gender and year

2010 2011 2012

Boys 43% 38% 29%

Girls 44% 35% 30%

Overall 44% 36% 29%

n = 2010 - 4815, 2011 – 3969 and 2012 – 4379. Note: Per cent may not add to 100 due to reasons discussed in section 1.3

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19427139

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Figure 4.2: Per cent of children getting a lift into school split by gender and year 2010

43%

38%

2011

2012

44% 35%

29%

Boys

44% 30%

Girls

36%

29%

Overall

n = 2010 - 4815, 2011 – 3969 and 2012 – 4379.

The data was also grouped into active travel (walking, ‘Park and Stride’, bike and scooter) and motorised travel (car and bus). As table 4.5 shows, between 2010 and 2012 the number of pupils travelling to school by motorised travel fell and the number of pupils who travelled by active travel increased from 2010 to 2012. Table 4.5: Transport to school; active travel vs. motorised travel

2010 2011 2012

Active travel 56% 78% 71%

Motorised travel 46% 38% 31%

n = 2010 - 4815, 2011 – 3969 and 2012 – 4379. Note: Per cent may not add to 100 due to reasons discussed in section 1.3

WoW Analysis Report 2012

5. Regression analysis Regression analysis is a statistical method which measures the correlation and variance between two or more variables. Here, this method is used to look at walking to school proportions by classroom unit, and the number of free school meals that each school declares in the schools census by proportion.

5.1.

Method

The variable for both free school meals and walking proportions were converted into decimal coefficients, for example 22% = 0.22 and a regression (ANOVA) calculated between the two variables with walking as the outcome variable and free school meals as the predictor. The tables overleaf show the outputs for 2010, 2011 and 2012 using the reference case data, which is the most stable for comparison.

5.2.

Analysis

Where a relationship is shown to be highly significant (p<.001), we can state that there is a significant relationship between free school meals and walking. The correlation is described by the R value and the R˄2 values, marked in yellow. So in 2010 there is a correlation of 0.34 (which is a weak correlation) and an R˄2 of 0.11 which explains that 11% of the correlation can be explained by the relationship between the two variables. The effect is strongest in 2011 but is less in 2012. In fact an r=0.22 and R˄2=0.05 for 2012 show a very weak correlation between these variables although statistically still significant. The coefficients, marked in green, tell us the gradient of the effect of free school meals on walking. In 2010, for example a one unit (percent) increase in walking gives a 0.38% increase in the proportion of free school meals. To give this some context, the mean for free school meals proportions is ~0.22 or 22.4% and the lowest value in the 2010 data for free school meals is 2.1%. If a school that was the lowest in terms of free school meals then increased to the mean (a net increase of 20.3%), our regression model would expect walking to increase by 20.3% x 0.38 = 7.7% because each unit of walking is predicted by 0.38 units of free school meals. The tables, coloured for ease of interpretation, are reproduced in full on the opposite page.

WoW Analysis Report 2012

5.3.

Tables 2010

Table: Model Summary R

R Square 0.34

Table: Coefficients

0.11 B

Adjusted R Square 0.11

Std. Error of the Estimate

Std. Error

Beta

0.18 t

Significance

(Constant)

0.33

0.02

14.88

FSM/100

0.38

0.08

0.34

4.91

2011

Table: Model Summary R

R Square 0.39

Table: Coefficients

0.15 B

Adjusted R Square 0.15

Std. Error of the Estimate

Std. Error

Beta

0.17 t

Significance

(Constant)

0.35

0.02

15.19

FSM/100

0.43

0.08

0.39

5.06

2012

Table: Model Summary R

R Square 0.22

Table: Coefficients

0.05 B

Adjusted R Square 0.05

Std. Error of the Estimate

Std. Error

Beta

0.19 t

Significance

(Constant)

0.36

0.03

13.5

FSM/100

0.28

0.1

0.22

2.82

0.01

ÂŠ Copyright Wavehill 2012

WoW Analysis Report 2012

6. Summary of findings Walking to school is the most frequent (and popular) method of travelling to school. It is also successfully enhanced by the WoW scheme as the proportion of walking increases from 43% at baseline in 2010 to 54% in 2012. Walking to school promotes several benefits. It provides exercise; it reduces traffic congestion and has associated environmental benefits of replacing a motorised journey. There is also the benefit of establishing the behaviour of active travel over motorised travel at a young age, which may extend into later life. Walking to school can also engage children with their environment, community and allow time with friends, family members and enhance social networks. Walking has both real and perceived risks and barriers; busy unsafe roads, being late, the weather and daylight hours during the winter. Also parents have busy routines, and distance can also make walking all the way to school too difficult or long an endeavour. These factors can be helpfully addressed in the WoW promotional materials. If the numbers of pupils walking to school has increased for schools participating in this project, then the selection of motorised transport has also fallen. Perhaps the most powerful results are within this category, as active travel has been replacing motorised travel, which fell from 46% in 2010 to 29% in 2012. Although this cannot all be attributable to the WoW project, the reduction in motorised travel must have been affected by it. In summary, the WoW project is very effective due to its incentives, education and awareness raising. The peak effect of the WoW scheme can be seen in the first year of intervention, maybe due to the rewards given in the form of badges, but continued use of WoW beyond this initial first year still leads to a sustained increase in walking far above the baseline.

ÂŠ Copyright Wavehill 2012

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Appendices:

ÂŠ Copyright Wavehill 2012

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Appendix i Responses by classroom unit across evaluation survey timeline

Area

2010

2011

2012

Barnsley Birmingham Bolton Brighton Bury Coventry Dudley Halton Hampshire Hartlepool Hull Knowsley Lancashire Manchester Newcastle North Tyneside Oldham Rochdale Salford Sandwell Southampton Staffordshire Stockport Stockton Stockton-on-Tees Stoke-on-Trent Torbay Trafford Walsall Warrington West Lancs. Wigan Total

0 263 35 0 87 0 35 60 0 0 0 0 8 0 85 0 32 0 46 0 0 0 27 0 94 26 0 0 120 0 84 0 1002

11 166 29 0 63 3 56 48 0 6 5 0 5 0 36 29 17 0 12 7 0 0 15 0 57 23 0 0 51 0 83 0 722

3 127 14 11 41 0 27 30 49 12 0 14 102 11 9 0 7 13 11 0 12 17 39 34 0 4 6 9 10 8 6 12 638

ÂŠ Copyright Wavehill 2012

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Appendix ii Contingency table of key variables from ALL survey data

Number Present

Walked

Walked all way

‘Park & Stride’

Bike / scooter

Bus

Lift car / taxi

Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total Girl Boy Total

2010 12751 13066 25817 5361 5646 11007 NA NA NA 1120 1223 2343 278 579 857 473 398 871 5472 5517 10989

Mean 2011 9347 9605 18952 5501 5657 11158 4225 4483 8708 1445 1347 2792 395 709 1104 244 232 476 3532 3254 6786

2012 8336 8462 16798 4494 4650 9144 3551 3718 7269 1579 1517 3096 339 575 914 108 125 233 2422 2220 4642

Standard Deviation

Proportion by Gender

2010 13.17 13.54

2011 13.08 13.47

2012 13.36 13.6

2010 4.28 4.22

2011 3.79 3.93

2012 3.26 3.46

2010 49% 51%

2011 49% 51%

2012 50% 50%

6.36 6.64

6.73 7.03

6.57 6.72

3.46 3.52

3.55 3.64

3.51 3.47

49% 51%

5.64 6.05

5.87 6.13

5.69 5.92

3.35 3.32

3.21 3.31

3.37 3.45

NA NA

49% 51%

Proportion by Total Present 2010

2011

2012

100%

43%

59%

54%

46%

43%

15%

18%

43%

36%

28%

49% 51% NA

1.7 1.72

1.84 1.83

1.78 1.67

2.24 2.21

2.41 2.41

2.45 2.21

48% 52%

52% 48%

51% 49%

0.41 0.81

0.45 0.71

0.43 0.84

0.94 1.34

1.03 1.19

0.89 1.39

32% 68%

56% 64%

59% 63%

0.35 0.33 4.99 4.83

0.31 0.29 4.76 4.64

0.4 0.34 4.77 4.46

0.93 0.82 3.29 3.37

0.81 0.65 3.51 3.42

1.07 0.86 3.48 3.24

54% 46% 50% 50%

51% 49% 52% 48%

46% 54% 52% 48%

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Appendix iii Table showing mean and standard deviation of the REFERENCE group and ALL data Reference Group

All Data

Variable

Mean Std Dev N

Mean Std Dev

Girls present Boys present Walked girls Walked boys Walked all way girls Walked all way boys Bike or scooter girls Bike or scooter boys Bus girls Bus boys Lift girls Lift boys ‘Park and Stride’ girls ‘Park and Stride’ boys

490 489 497 496 309 309 499 499 499 499 498 498 498 498

13.14 13.75 6.64 6.82 5.88 6.07 0.46 0.82 0.36 0.48 4.8 4.86 1.5 1.6

13.19 13.52 6.53 6.78 5.73 6.04 0.43 0.79 0.41 0.52 4.86 4.67 1.76 1.74

3.32 3.66 3.45 3.82 3.4 3.35 0.94 1.29 0.78 0.98 3.33 3.42 2.05 2.04

2307 2302 2352 2356 1358 1358 2353 2358 2354 2358 2350 2355 2349 2349

3.86 3.9 3.51 3.66 3.32 3.35 0.96 1.31 1.04 1.05 3.41 3.35 2.35 2.27

WoW Analysis Report 2012

Appendix iv Table showing distribution, range and variance for ALL data

n Mean

Walked Girls

Walked boys

Walked all way girls

Walked all way boys

Bike or scooter girls

Bus boys

Lift girls

Lift boys

‘Park and Stride’ girls

‘Park and Stride’ boys

2297

2296

1333

1332

1330

1326

1323

6.5

6.8

5.7

6.0

0.5

1.0

4.4 4.3 to 4.6

4.1 3.9 to 4.2

2.2

2.1

2.1 to 2.3

2.0 to 2.2

6.4 to 6.7

6.6 to 6.9

5.5 to 5.9

5.9 to 6.2

0.5 to 0.6

0.9 to 1.0

0.6 0.6 to 0.7

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.03

0.04

0.03

0.09

0.08

0.07

0.06

Variance

12.1

13.3

10.8

11.1

1.2

2.0

1.3

10.4

9.3

6.0

5.3

3.5

3.7

3.3

1.1

1.4

2.3

3.5 to 3.8

3.2 to 3.4

3.2 to 3.5

1.0 to 1.1

1.4 to 1.5

3.0 2.9 to 3.2

2.5

3.4 to 3.6

3.2 3.1 to 3.4

2.4 to 2.6

2.2 to 2.4

95% CI

53.2%

53.8%

57.4%

55.2%

203.0%

147.5%

1.1 1.1 to 1.2 184.8 %

73.0%

75.0%

110.9%

109.0%

Skewness

0.62

0.72

0.54

0.56

3.07

2.06

2.53

0.68

0.73

1.30

1.37

Kurtosis

0.75

1.82

0.57

1.01

12.90

5.56

8.39

0.21

0.74

1.76

2.18

ShapiroWilk W

0.97

0.56

0.71

<0.0001

0.94 <0.00 01

0.84

<0.0001

0.95 <0.00 01

0.84

<0.0001

0.61 <0.000 1

<0.0001

6.0

0.0

4.0 4.0 to 4.0

2.0

95% CI CV

p Median

6.0 to 6.0

6.0 to 7.0

5.0 to 6.0

6.0 to 6.0

0.0 to 0.0

0.0 0.0 to 0.0

1.0 to 2.0

Range

IQR

5.0

4.0

1.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

0th

0.0

25th

4.0

3.0

4.0

0.0

2.0

0.0

50th

6.0

0.0

4.0

2.0

75th

9.0

8.0

1.0

7.0

6.0

4.0

3.0

100th

24.0

31.0

20.0

24.0

10.0

17.0

19.0

15.0

14.0

95.0% CI

Percentile