Commodity Research Report 21 November 2017 Ways2Capital

` ✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-11-17

136.20

140.90

139.25

137.60

136.90

135.95

135.25

134.30

132.65

COPPER

30-11-17

452.70

448.00

443.30

441.65

438.60

436.95

433.90

429.20

424.50

CRUDE OIL

17-11-17

3934

3843

3752

3718

3661

3627

3570

3479

3388

GOLD

05-12-17

30711

30337

29963

29826

29589

29452

29215

28841

28467

LEAD

30-11-17

166.05

163.35

160.65

159.70

157.95

157.00

155.25

152.55

149.85

NATURAL GAS

27-11-17

215.55

210.95

206.35

204.70

201.75

200.10

197.15

192.55

187.95

NICKEL

30-11-17

788.45

775.25

762.05

756.60

748.85

743.40

735.65

722.45

709.25

SILVER

05-12-17

41978

41290

40602

40307

39914

39619

39226

38538

37850

ZINC

30-11-17

216.50

213.65

210.80

209.75

207.95

206.90

205.10

202.25

199.40

Friday 17 November 2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

DATE 30-11-17

148.55

144.55

140.55

138.40

136.55

134.40

132.55

128.55

124.55

COPPER

30-11-17

496.55

478.70

460.85

450.45

443.00

432.60

425.15

407.30

389.45

CRUDE OIL

17-11-17

4150

3990

3830

3757

3670

3597

3510

3350

3190

GOLD

05-12-17

30777

30383

29989

29840

29595

29446

29201

28807

28413

LEAD

30-11-17

189.2

179.55

169.90

164.30

160.25

154.65

150.60

140.95

131.30

NATURAL GAS

27-11-17

244.2

231.00

217.80

210.40

204.60

197.20

191.40

178.20

165.00

NICKEL

30-11-17

1018.05

935.25

852.45

801.80

769.65

719.00

686.85

604.05

521.25

SILVER

05-12-17

42178

41415

40652

40332

39889

39569

39126

38363

37600

ZINC

30-11-17

238.75

228.90

219.05

213.90

209.20

204.05

199.35

189.50

179.65

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-11-17

66.24

65.83

65.41

65.26

64.99

64.84

64.57

64.16

63.75

EURINR

28-11-17

78.57

77.96

77.36

77.11

76.75

76.50

76.14

75.53

75.93

GBPINR

28-11-17

87.66

87.10

86.55

86.26

85.99

85.70

85.43

84.87

84.32

JPYINR

28-11-17

58.95

58.55

58.14

57.99

57.73

57.58

57.31

56.90

56.49

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-11-17

68

67.06

66.11

65.65

65.17

64.67

64.22

63.28

62.33

EURINR

28-11-17

80.55

79.32

78.09

77.48

76.86

76.24

75.62

74.39

73.16

GBPINR

28-11-17

87.96

87.30

86.65

86.31

85.99

85.65

85.34

84.68

84.03

JPYINR

28-11-17

59.44

58.88

58.33

58.09

57.77

57.53

57.22

56.66

56.11

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Last week, MCX gold prices traded sideways for the entire week but found enough support of 200 days moving average at level of Rs. 29500 and close the price near 4 week high. Gold prices moved higher on Friday, surging above resistance which is now support at the 50-day moving average level at Rs. 29500.

Resistance is seen near important psychological level at Rs. 30000. Stronger than expected housing numbers in the U.S. failed to lift the dollar and allowed gold prices to move higher. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating above the 50 level on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.

MCX Silver also moved higher taking cue from the Gold and closed above the level of Rs.40000 with the gain of 1.30 per cent on weekly basis, in what would be its best week in five. Silver important support level at Rs. 39600 supported by 50 days moving average. Technically Bullion market is looking positive in upcoming sessions and in last week market has appreciated and now psychologically investors are looking interested to investment and it is termed as a very good hedge also. Ahead of the coming week, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Claims & FOMC Meeting Minutes will further provide direction to the bullion.

✍ BASE METAL November Copper futures are trading with negative sentiment after hitting its lowest level since October 9 on Friday. Prices continued to slide yesterday as data from China stoked fears of a slowdown in the world’s top commodities consumer Data released on Tuesday showed China’s economy cooled further last month, with industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales missing expectations as the government extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution. Prices could fall further if investors continue to move money out of riskier assets which typically has a negative impact on commodities. However, if investors are dumping copper because they believe the economy in China is slowing then the current short-term retracement could evolve into a longer-term setback.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on a trade through Rs.450 on Tuesday. A trade below Rs. 335 will reaffirm the downtrend. If the selling pressure increases, we could see an eventual break into the cluster of bottoms at Rs. 335 to Rs. 324 supported by 50 days moving average. The short-term range is Rs. 446 to Rs. 435 supported by 15 days and 50 days moving average.

✍ ENERGY Crude oil prices jumped on Friday, but failed to offset their first weekly loss in six weeks as fears over rising U.S. output persisted, while falling expectations for an extension of OPEC-led output curbs weighed on sentiment. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.36, or around 2.5%, to end at $56.71 a barrel by close of trade, snapping a five-session losing streak.

The Crude Oil market fell during most of the week, but turned around at the Rs. 3600 level, showing signs of support and end up forming a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, and we recognize that the market breaking out above the Rs. 3700 level previously was a very bullish sign. I believe that the market should continue to go higher in the short term, as the Rs. 3800 level will almost certainly be targeted now. There will be a lot of volatile action, as Ahead of the coming week, market has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, November 21 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, November 22 The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Natural gas futures climbed 4.4 cents, or almost 1.5%, to settle at $3.097 per million British thermal units, but still lost about 3.6% for the week. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration reported the first weekly decline of the winter heating-fuel season for U.S. natural-gas supplies.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW �

SILVER

Last week, MCX Silver prices traded sideways for the entire week but found enough support of 100 days moving average at level of Rs. 39500 on its 4 hourly chart. Silver prices moved higher on Friday, surging above resistance which is now support at the 50-day moving average level at Rs. 39700. Resistance is seen near important psychological level at Rs. 40000. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating above the 50 level on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.

� LEAD The primary trend is bullish on daily basis as displayed. As we can see the previous chart market price on its important support level and we are expecting market can move up from lower level supported by 100 days moving average. It can be facing near resistance level at Rs. 160.40 and support level at Rs. 156. Above the resistance level we can see the next target near of Rs. 163. Investors can follow the buy on dips strategy for intra day to mid term basis. Apart from this below the support level could see a test of level 153.

BUY LEAD NOV ABOVE 160.40 TGT 163.60 SL 158.50

� NICKEL Last week, MCX Nickel traded with slightly negative trend we seen profit booking from higher level till we believe that investors are looking interested in metals we can see bounce back from lower level as displayed on charts. Resistance is seen near the level at Rs. 760. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal on its 4 hourly chart. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the metal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating above the 50 level on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.

BUY NICKEL NOV ABOVE 760 TGT 788 SL 743

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-11-17

683

682

681

680

679

679

678

677

676

SYBEANIDR

20-11-17

2940

2912

2884

2869

2856

2841

2828

2800

2772

RMSEED

20-11-17

4046

3997

3948

3917

3899

3868

3850

3801

3752

JEERAUNJHA

20-11-17

20835

20495

20155

20010

19815

19670

19475

19135

18795

GUARSEED10

20-11-17

3790

3744

3698

3673

3652

3627

3606

3560

3514

TMC

20-11-17

7337

7227

7117

7075

7007

6965

6897

6787

6677

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-11-17

744

724

705

692

685

673

666

647

627

SYBEANIDR

20-11-17

3016

2962

2908

2882

2854

2828

2800

2746

2692

RMSEED

20-11-17

4216

4116

4016

3951

3916

3851

3816

3716

3616

JEERAUNJHA

20-11-17

23142

21937

20732

20298

19527

19093

18322

17117

15912

GUARSEED10

20-11-17

4113

3970

3827

3738

3684

3595

3541

3398

3255

TMC

20-11-17

8168

7776

7384

7208

6992

6816

6600

6208

5816

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SPICE COMPLEX Technically NCDEX Turmeric is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.34% to settled at 6940. Now Turmeric is getting support at 6965 and below same could see a test of 6897 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7075, a move above could see prices testing 7117.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up 0.72% at 7032 amid strong demand in the spot market. Besides, limited arrivals from major growing regions also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend.

Jeera Dec Futures recently broken its major psychological resistance level of Rs.20000. Fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter the market. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that four months of time span left before new crop hits the market. Important resistance level at Rs. 21000, while Rs. 19500 can act as a support level.

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX Soybean NCDEX Dec futures gained by 80 points and settled above 2900/quintal. Price gained with rising volume. Last week, Soybean futures traded lower on NCDEX as speculators trimmed their positions amid higher arrivals from new season crops. Besides, demand for new season crop is steady as import duty is not raised by the government. Soybean prices weakened further on widespread rains in northern Brazil, which are expected to boost crop prospects in the world's top soybean exporting country. However, dry conditions will delay soy planting in neighboring Argentina.

Last week, Refined soy oil Dec futures prices traded with negative bias but found enough support at the level of Rs. 690. It traded near to nine month high and is in uptrend since past four weeks, buoyed by higher quoting soy oil price on CBOT. However, the upside may get limited from here on as the retail demand of soy oil is very limited so most of the wholesale traders are procuring soy oil as per requirement. Spot soybean seed and mustard seed prices are likely to boost today.

As of now, Soy oil and Canola oil prices has increased by 7.30/kg. This is primarily due to Indian government’s decision to hike import duty on soy oil and canola oil to 30% and 25% from previous 17.5% and 12.5% respectively.

NCDEX Mustard seed Dec futures traded in a narrow range of 3956-3980 and settled at 3969. Price closed higher by 5 points with lower OI and volume. Price traded dull with narrow movement in veg oils. Lower acreage number with recovery in soybean supported the Mustard fuutures counter. As of 10 Nov 2017 the all Indian area under Mustard was at 37.05 lakh hec vs. 38.41 in last year, the normal area is 39.15 lakh hec as per the govt data, the area is down by 3.54%

✍ OTHER COMPLEX Chana Dec futures fall about 1.4% on Thursday despite government removed export curbs on all varieties of pulses to ensure farmers get remunerative prices as domestic rates have crashed below MSP in view of record production. Chana is pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country.

Moreover, government which is sitting on a buffer stock of 18 lakh tonnes is set to dispose of 5 lt pulses

by March next year will put pressure on prices. As per government sowing data chana is planted in 47.2 lakh ha as on 10 Nov, up by 43% compared to 33 lakh ha last year. Moreover to encourage farmers to plant more chana, Government increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW � GUARSEED Guar seed moved higher last Friday after a modest pull back earlier in the week. Price has surged significantly higher in recent weeks, breaking above key long-term resistance levels easily. Traders should watch support between 3640 and 3620 and look to buy near that area this week should price weaken and form a 1 hour, 4 hour or daily chart price action buy signal within or near that support zone as you can see in the displayed chart. Technically for the next week, we can expect positive movement in it and if it breaks the resistance level of Rs.3720 then it can test the level of Rs.3880 - 3830 in short term basis.

� GUARSEED 10 From last couple of months market was traded in down trend channel and recently market broken its channel indicating the positive movement in Guarseed. It is having important resistance level of 3705 above this level we can see the short term positive movement to the level of 3800 - 3830. On the other side 3570 level should be enough for support level.

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