Commodity research report 07 november 2017 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-NOV-2017

145.3

143.70

142.10

141.50

140.50

139.90

138.90

137.30

135.70

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

467.15

461.05

454.95

450.35

448.85

444.25

442.75

436.65

430.55

CRUDE OIL

17-NOV-2017

3943

3838

3733

3656

3628

3551

3523

3418

3313

GOLD

05-DEC-2017

29978

29715

29452

29270

29189

29007

28926

28663

28400

LEAD

30-NOV-2017

167.9

165.55

163.20

161.55

160.85

159.20

158.50

156.15

153.80

NATURAL GAS

27-NOV-2017

219.10

211.90

204.70

199.40

197.50

192.20

190.20

183.00

175.80

NICKEL

30-NOV-2017

862.50

851.20

839.90

830.00

828.50

818.70

817.30

805.90

794.60

SILVER

05-DEC-2017

41835

41014

40193

39620

39372

38799

38551

37730

36909

ZINC

30-NOV-2017

217.15

214.90

212.65

210.80

210.40

208.55

208.15

205.90

203.65

Tuesday 07 November2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-NOV-2017

155.85

150.70

145.55

143.25

140.40

138.10

135.25

130.10

124.95

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

482.45

470.85

459.25

452.50

447.65

440.90

436.05

424.45

412.85

CRUDE OIL

17-NOV-2017

3871

3764

3657

3618

3550

3511

3443

3336

3229

GOLD

05-DEC-2017

30212

29871

29530

29309

29189

28968

2884

28507

28166

LEAD

30-NOV-2017

168.9

165.90

162.90

161.40

159.90

158.40

156.90

153.90

150.90

NATURAL

27-NOV-2017

225

213.90

202.80

198.50

191.70

187.40

180.60

169.50

158.40

NICKEL

30-NOV-2017

1101.90

1001.70

901.50

860.80

801.30

760.60

701.00

600.80

500.60

SILVER

05-DEC-2017

42848

41636

40424

39736

39212

38524

38000

36788

35576

ZINC

30-NOV-2017

235.45

227.40

219.35

214.10

211.30

206.05

203.25

195.20

187.15

GAS

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-NOV-17

65.21

65.10

64.95

64.90

64.85

64.80

64.75

64.60

64.49

EURINR

28-NOV-17

76.16

75.90

75.60

75.50

75.35

75.20

75.10

74.80

74.54

GBPINR

28-NOV-17

86.42

86.05

85.65

85.70

85.25

85.30

84.85

84.45

84.08

JPYINR

28-NOV-17

57.62

57.40

57.15

57.05

56.90

56.80

56.65

56.40

56.18

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-NOV-17

66.14

65.65

65.20

64.90

64.70

64.45

64.20

63.75

63.26

EURINR

28-NOV-17

77.37

76.65

75.90

75.40

75.15

74.65

74.40

73.65

72.93

GBPINR

28-NOV-17

90.48

88.60

86.75

85.55

84.90

83.70

83.05

81.20

79.32

JPYINR

28-NOV-17

59.60

58.75

57.90

57.35

57.05

56.50

56.20

55.35

54.50

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ BULLION Last week, MCX gold prices traded sideways for the entire week and sustained above the major psychological support level of Rs.29000. In the later part of the week, we observed some negative movement in it due to weaker than expected employment report for October. As per the data from U.S. Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 261000 jobs whereas the forecast was for 315,000 new jobs.

The fall in the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, its lowest level since December 2000.

The U.S. Dollor Index, which measures the green back strength against a trade weight basket of six major currency rose by 0.04% and closed at the level of 94.86 on weekly basis. Gold’s gains were held in check as the U.S. dollar continued to trade near three month highs against a currency basket. Bullion is often used as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, while riskier assets such as equities are generally sold off.

MCX Silver also traded sideways taking cue from the Gold and closed at Rs.39048 with the marginal loss of 0.26 per cent on weekly basis. The recent U.S. economic data may delay the decision of interest rate hike by U.S. Federal Reserve as Unemployment rate use to serve as the important factor for interest rate hike decision. Ahead of the coming week, Unemployment Claims, Consumer Sentiment & Trade Balance will further provide direction to the bullion.

✍ BASE METAL Last week, MCX Copper witnessed choppy movement for the entire week and managed to closed at Rs. 445.80, similar to its last week closing. As per the ECB comments in its last meeting, it was deemed to be more dovish about the economy. The central bank said that it is reducing its monthly bond-buying program amount by half, but is extending the time-frame of the bond buying. This led to sharp upside movement in the Dollar Index towards three month high and also supported base metals to sustain on higher levels.

Expectation of high demand coupled the tight supply further providing the strength the the Copper.

Supply tightness was confirmed by latest figures from International Copper Study Group (ICSG) which said copper market should see a deficit of 151,000 tonnes this year and a deficit of 104,000 tonnes in 2018.

Last week, we saw sharp upside movement in the prices of Nickel and it made a high of Rs.841.90 during the week and closed at Rs.820.10 with the overall gain of 9.35 per cent on weekly basis due to strong demand. The expectation of boost in demand due to rise in electric car buying, acting as the catalyst for the bullish movement in it as manufacturers are trying to boost usage of nickel in electric vehicle batteries in as a substitute of expensive cobalt.Lead, Zinc & Aluminium traded sideways to positive for the most part of the week.

� ENERGY Last week, NYMEX Crude Oil traded near to its more than 2 year high on the expectation of further extension in deal to curb production by major global producers beyond its current expiry date next March.

It made a high of $55.76 and closed at $55.64 with the overall gain of 3.22 per cent on the weekly basis.

Its the fourth straight week gain for the crude oil and almost 10 per cent increase in the prices in last 1 month.

MCX Crude Oil also witnessed positive movement taking cue from the NYMEX crude oil and closed at Rs.3579 with the weekly gain of 2.22 per cent on weekly basis. As per the data from Baker Hughes, the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by eight to 729 last week. That was the fourth weekly decline in last five and further providing support to positive movement in Crude oil. Last week U.S. Crude Oil inventory came lower than the expected, forecast was for -1.5M where as the actual level came at -2.4M. Last week Natural Gas MCX Nov futures traded sideways for the most part of the week and sustaining near to major resistance level of Rs.204. Prices are still unable to get any cue due to maintained inventory level from last 2-3 weeks but technically in short term, we can expect good upside movement in it.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW � SILVER Last week, Silver witnessed choppy movement for the most part of the week and closed at Rs. 39048 with the marginal loss of 0.26 per cent on weekly basis. In the initial part of the upcoming week, we can expect short covering in it from the lower levels & it can test the levels of Rs.39800-40000 on the upside. But in the later part, it may continue the down trend again and may test the psychological support level of 3900038500.

SELL SILVER DEC BELOW 39600 TGT 38850 SL 39851

� NATURAL GAS Last week, Natural Gas MCX futures started the week on negative note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were recovered and it closed at 194.20 with no change on weekly basis. Natural Gas is still sustaining near to 5 months high with good consolidation and in the upcoming week, if it breaks the high of Rs.204 then we can expect sharp bullish movement in it till the levels of Rs.212-214.

BUY NATURAL GAS ABOVE 204 TGT 212 SL 199.90

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

721.05

715.25

709.45

705.80

703.65

700.00

697.85

692.05

686.25

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

3041

2976

2911

2872

2846

2807

2781

2716

2651

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4109

4065

4021

3993

3977

3949

3933

3889

3845

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

20015

19715

19415

19225

19110

18920

18810

18510

18210

GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

3963

3873

3783

3726

3693

3636

3603

3513

3423

TMC

20-DEC-2017

7566

7454

7342

7280

7228

7168

7116

7004

6892

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

790.3

760.35

730.40

717.85

700.45

687.90

670.50

640.55

610.60

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

3287

3151

3015

2954

2879

2818

2743

2607

2471

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4366

4230

4094

4038

3958

3902

3822

3686

3550

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

20780

20210

19640

19430

19070

18860

18500

17930

17360

GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

4132

3973.00

3814

3752

3655

3593

3496

3337

3178

TMC

20-DEC-2017

8160

7810

7460

7319

7110

6969

6760

6410

6060

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SPICE COMPLEX Turmeric Dec Futures may continue sideways to negative movement and may trade in the range of 70007300 due to lack of demand & availability of stock. The traders are quoting decreased price, after verifying the sample as only medium and poor quality turmeric is arriving for sale in major mandis.

Turmeric prices at present is ruling around similar to last year’s level, but still not able find good demand mainly due to ample stocks in the country. Further, buyers are not in mood to make any bulk purchases as new crop is said to be in satisfactory conditions with production expected slightly higher than last year.

Jeera Dec Futures is likely to sustain above the major psychological support level of Rs.19000.

Fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter the market. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that four months of time span left before new crop hits the market.

Coriander Dec Futures is likely to trade negative & below the support level of Rs.5000 we can expect good downside movement in it. Coriander sowing in the producing belts of Rajasthan started from first week of November and sowing progress report will decide future trend for the commodity.

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX Soybean Dec Futures is likely to witness sell on rise & test 2800-2750 levels as the demand for the commodity in the spot market is very poor mainly from crushers due to poor domestic and export demand for soy meal. The Soybean prices are likely to remain under pressure till 15th December due peak supply period along with huge carry-over stocks of about 1.5-2 million tons.

Last week, Refined soy oil Dec futures prices witnessed sharp upside movement & broke the major resistance level of Rs.700. It traded near to nine month high and is in uptrend since past four weeks, buoyed by higher quoting soy oil price on CBOT. However, the upside may get limited from here on as the retail demand of soy oil is very limited so most of the wholesale traders are procuring soy oil as per requirement. RM Seed Dec Futures is expected to trade positive

and if it sustains above the resistance level of Rs.4000 then it can test the level of Rs. 4100 during the week. Mustard oil crushers are also active in buying mustard seed with anticipation that demand for its oil will improve ahead amid winter season.

Secondly, the initial data of sowing highlights that only 25% of the 2017/18 mustard crop has been planted in Rajasthan as compared to 70% that was planted last year at this time. The ideal planting window for mustard is up to November 20th & any more delay in mustard seed will hurt yield leading to lower production next season.

� OTHER COMPLEX Kapas Futures (April 18) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 888-860 levels. At present, there is not much clarity in the price direction & in days to come the new crop supply will be a trend setter and needs to be keenly observed. The other factor which needs to be look out is the procurement procedure. Around 40 centers of CCI in Gujarat begin the procurement procedure while the remaining 16 centers will catch up eventually.

Guar seed Dec Futures sustaining near to support level of Rs.3600 but we can expect further downfall in it. The market participants are keeping a close watch on the crude oil prices, shale gas production and U.S rigs count. The current pace of arrivals are also likely to decline gradually ahead as current rates may prompt farmers to hold their produce in the anticipation of better return this season due to prospects of lower crop estimates.

Chana Dec Futures witnessed short covering from the lower levels but we further expect negative movement in it till the level of Rs.4500 in the short term. According to the market participants, chana sowing acreage in the coming rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW � GUARSEED Last week Guarseed Dec Futures witnessed sideways movement for the most part of the week and sustained below the resistance level of Rs.3800. Technically for the next week, we can expect downside movement in it and if it breaks the support level of Rs.3630 then it can test the level of Rs.3550-3510 till the end of the week.

SELL GUARSEED10 DEC BELOW 3630 TGT 3530 SL 3681

� COTTON SEED OIL CAKE Last week, we saw sideways movement in Cotton Seed Oil Cake dec futures and its consolidating on lower level. Technically for the next week, we can expect downside movement in it and if it breaks the level of Rs.1494 the it can test the level of Rs. 1450-1410 on the downside by the end of the week.

SELL COTTON SEED OIL CAKE DEC BELOW 1494 TGT 1420 SL 1535

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