Commodity research report 14 november 2017 ways2capital

` ✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30- NOV-2017

141.50

140.00

139.00

138.50

136.50

135.10

134.10

132.50

131.40

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

458.70

454.20

449.50

446.90

445.00

442.40

440.40

435.70

431.10

CRUDE OIL

17-NOV-2017

3900.0

3841

3782

3747

3723

3688

3664

3605

3546

0 GOLD

05-DEC--2017

30111

29999

29881

29700

29551

29430

29320

29210

29100

LEAD

30- NOV-2017

171.00

169.90

168.70

167.10

165.40

164.30

163.10

162.00

160.50

NATURAL GAS

27-NOV-2017

217.50

214.70

211.90

210.60

209.10

207.80

206.30

203.50

200.70

NICKEL

30- NOV-2017

845.90

835.60

825.30

815.30

805.30

795.10

785.10

775

765.00

SILVER

05-DEC-17

40700

40400

40100

39900

39577

39177

38700

38400

38100

ZINC

30- NOV-2017

218.50

216.10

214.00

212.00

210.90

208.00

206.00

204.00

202.00

Tuesday 14 November2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

DATE 30- NOV-2017

142.70

140.60

138.60

138.00

136.50

135.90

134.50

132.50

130.50

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

463.20

459.50

454.90

449.50

445.00

441.00

437.00

431.50

425.50

CRUDE OIL

17-NOV-2017

3920

3880

3820

3785

3723

3670

3610

3550

3490

GOLD

05-DEC--2017

30241

30011

29781

29636

29551

29406

29321

29091

28861

LEAD

30- NOV-2017

174.40

171.40

168.40

166.45

165.40

163.45

162.40

159.40

156.40

NATURAL GAS

27-NOV-2017

220.00

216.00

214.10

211.00

209.10

207.70

205.50

203.10

198.50

NICKEL

30- NOV-2017

956.00

905.70

855.50

822.50

805.30

772.30

755.10

705

654.60

SILVER

05-DEC-17

42505

41529

40553

40030

39577

39054

38601

37625

36649

ZINC

30- NOV-2017

232.60

225.0

218.10

215.30

210.90

208.00

203.70

196.40

189.10

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-NOV-17

65.65

65.55

65.45

65.35

65.25

65.14

65.03

64.90

64.85

EURINR

28-NOV-17

76.99

76.83

76.69

76.55

76.40

76.25

76.10

75.97

75.80

GBPINR

28-NOV-17

86.55

86.37

86.19

86.00

85.85

85.69

85.50

85.31

85.15

JPYINR

28-NOV-17

58.00

57.90

57.80

57.69

57.60

57.50

57.40

57.29

57.18

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-NOV-17

66.30

66.00

65.79

65.51

65.20

65.00

64.77

64.50

64.20

EURINR

28-NOV-17

77.51

77.21

76.91

76.61

76.31

76.00

75.69

75.38

75.08

GBPINR

28-NOV-17

86.90

86.60

86.30

86.00

85.77

85.50

85.20

84.90

84.50

JPYINR

28-NOV-17

59.28

58.90

58.35

58.00

57.51

57.11

56.80

56.50

56.20

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � BULLION Last week, spot gold prices traded 1.2 percent higher while MCX gold prices surged by 2 percent.

Weakness in the dollar index on account of the possible delays in the long awaited US Tax reforms, fall in global equities were factors responsible for the rise in the yellow metal.

Gold prices were stuck in a small range last week with some gains coming in as uncertainty over US tax reforms kept the dollar subdued. The US Senate and House version of the tax bill is different and discussions will pan out over the next few weeks. The Senate bill proposes a delay in the implementation of a corporate-tax cut until 2019. If tax reforms fail to move forward convincingly, precious metals could find a solid floor around current levels. Gold prices however fell on Friday as the US bond yield curve steepened slightly after touching its flattest level in a decade earlier. A December rate hike by the Fed is largely factored in and appointment of Powell as the new Fed Chair is unlikely to change the path of US monetary policy going ahead. The November Fed meeting was a non-event and the Fed continued to emphasise the message from its last meeting while maintaining that growth remains solid. A December rate hike is a done deal and therefore only the outlook for rates in 2018 will provide triggers to the market.

As per the last forecast by the Fed, most members expect 3 rate hikes next year. The new dot plot is slightly more dovish in the long term with members expecting rates to settle around 2.75%, down from 3% in the previous forecasts. This suggests that rate hikes will be very gradual and may help gold prices find support. Economic data in recent weeks has also showed strong growth momentum in the US economy. The Q3 GDP data showed that the economy expanded by 3.0% and consumer spending jumped by 2.4%. The ISM manufacturing index hit 60.1 in October, a 13 year high while the nonmanufacturing PMI hit 58.7, slightly lower than the 13-year peak hit in September. The payrolls data showed that hiring bounced back in October after falling in September due to the twin Hurricanes. The US economy added 261k jobs in October and previous readings were revised higher by a combined 90k. Wage growth was disappointing at 2.4% y/y but the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%. Lack of Inflation however remains a challenge for the Fed as the latest inflation reading missed expectations once again.

The core CPI grew just 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y in September. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased by 1.3% in Q3 after 0.9% increase in Q2. The core PCE has been stuck around 1.3% for most part of this year and suggests that inflationary pressures still remain low.

In this context, the October inflation data due this week will be very important as it is the only reading left before the December Fed meeting. Disappointing data could lower possibilities of more rate hikes in 2018 and thereby end up providing support to precious metals. A better reading on the other hand could lead to further correction in prices.

Gold prices fell sharply on Friday as a large sell order with an unclear catalyst jolted the market ahead of the weekend.Gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.96% at $1,274.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since November 7.Prices of the precious metal rose to a three-week high on Thursday amid increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.The selloff in gold coincided with a move lower in the dollar, which was hit by growing doubts over whether Republicans will be able to push through their tax overhaul this year.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.13% to 94.30 in late trade. For the week, the index was down 0.61%, snapping three straight weeks of gains.A stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes less affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar appreciates.Senate Republicans unveiled a tax plan on Thursday that differed from the one crafted by House Republicans, highlighting the challenges to reconciling the differences between the two plans with just a short time before the year-end deadline they have set to pass it.Hopes of tax reform have helped boost the dollar since mid-September. Some traders believe tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was down 0.57% at $16.87 a troy ounce late Friday, while platinum settled at $913.15, down 1.0% for the day.Among base metals, copper was down 0.39% at $3.074 in late trade as lackluster Chinese demand data and increasing copper stockpiles stored in metal warehouses weighed.

In the week ahead, inflation readings will matter most for global financial markets, with the U.S., UK, euro zone and Canada all set to release CPI data.Investors will also be focusing on the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the ECB, with a panel discussion including the heads of the European, U.S., British and Japanese central banks in the spotlight.

� BASE METAL Base metals traded mixed last week as electric car boom fizzled out earlier than expected since the rally was deemed as unreasonable given demand from the sector is only going to be supportive in the long term, thereby leading to a correction across the complex.Copper prices have been trading range bound with much of the action in minor metals and nickel. There are no real fundamental triggers for copper at the moment and dollar index movement and funds flow is what is driving the market at the moment.The Indonesian unit of Freeport-McMoRan Inc has temporarily shut the main supply route to its Papua mine after a shooting incident, amid escalating tensions between security forces and an armed rebel group in the area. China’s producer prices were surprisingly strong in October, while consumer inflation picked up pace, suggesting the economy remains robust despite expected curbs on factory output as the government pursues a war on smog. Chinese data this month is expected to show the economy cooled further in October as policy makers harden efforts to reduce financial risks and foster long term sustainable growth.Lead was the only metal on track for a weekly gain, of near 3%, as prices hit their highest since October. LME stocks have fallen to their lowest in almost two years at less than 150,000 tons. Global demand for refined lead will exceed supply by 125,000 tons this year, while a deficit of 45,000 tons is expected in 2018, as per the latest ILZSG. China will raise foreign ownership limits in financial firms in a step granting access to a tantalizing multitrillion dollar financial services market, as the country seeks to position itself as a major global finance hub. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long position in COMEX copper contracts in the week to Oct. 31, U.S. CFTC data showed. Noncommercial net longs turned lower from what had been the strongest since February. Nickel prices corrected last week, slipping further from the more than two-year high it hit last week on speculation that an expected electric vehicle boom would drive up demand. Nickel prices surged almost 10% during the annual LME Week industry gathering on expectations that nickel demand for use in lithium ion batteries would increase as electric car buying ramped up. Fundamentals for nickel are sound, though stocks are relatively high. The market expects annual nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector to grow to 200,000 tons by 2020, but had been ignoring downside risks from policy developments in Indonesia, which recently lifted curbs on ore exports, and the Philippines,

where the end of a ban on open-pit mining has been mooted. Aluminum was under pressure adding some gains before the end of the week, but was still on track for its worst week since May 2016 as speculative investment flows receded on caution over the scale of expected Chinese capacity cuts. The world’s biggest producer of aluminium is expected to cut millions of tonnes of aluminium capacity during the winter to combat air pollution, helping to push prices to five-year highs last month. Stocks in LMEapproved warehouses fell to their lowest since September 2008, down to 1.2 million tonnes, but stocks in Shanghai inched higher this week to a record 666,581 tonnes.

The Indonesian unit of Freeport-McMoRan Inc has reopened the main supply route to its huge copper mine in Papua, the company said on Monday, after the road was closed on Sunday following a shooting incident in the area. No one was reported injured when shots were fired at an escort vehicle traveling from the lowlands, but Freeport canceled all convoys along the road on Sunday afternoon while the security situation was assessed.

✍ ENERGY WTI and MCX oil prices traded higher by 2.7 and 4.4 percent last week on account of commitment by the OPEC nations to cut oil output. Brent crude hit $64.65, its highest since mid-2015, as political tensions in the Middle East escalated after a sweeping anti-corruption purge in top crude exporter Saudi Arabia, which in turn has confronted Iran over the conflict in Yemen Oil prices have jumped almost 23% from their lows in June with both WTI and Brent trading near twoyear highs as fundamentals continue to improve. The global oil market has seen a small deficit over the last three months as the growth in global supply has slowed and as OPEC compliance to cuts has improved. OPEC oil output fell by 80,000 bpd to 32.78 mbpd in October and overall compliance touched 92%. Saudi continues to be the biggest contributor to the supply cuts but the drop in Iraq’s output by 120,000 bpd helped improve the overall compliance. Nigerian output slipped by 70,000 bpd as some of its exports were under force majeure while Libya pumped an extra 70,000 bpd due to more stable output from the Sharara oilfield. Russia has also reduced its oil output by around 317,000 bpd from 11.24 million bpd in Oct 2016. On the whole, we believe overall OPEC’s compliance would remain high going forward and help continue the rebalancing process. Importantly, both Libya and Nigeria have reached the upper end of their production range and hence incremental supply growth from these two will be limited. The upcoming OPEC meeting on Nov. 30 will now be closely watched for further developments on supply.

There are likely to be preliminary discussions about extending the output cuts after they expire in March 2018. Another ninemonth extension could set the stage for another leg-up in oil prices. US output on the other hand touched a record 9.62 mbpd last week and remains elevated in y/y comparisons. US oil rig count fell for a third month in a row in October with rig count down by 13, the biggest decline since May 2016. Drillers however added nine oil rigs last week, the most since June, bringing the total count up to 738. This indicated that higher prices could incentivize drilling further and US shale will continue to cap upside in oil prices. On the inventory side, US oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels last month and are now 6.2% lower compared to the same period last year. US oil stocks have declined by 80 million barrels since March this year. Estimates from the IEA suggest that global oil stocks likely decreased in Q3 for only the second time since oil prices crashed in the middle of 2014. Crude inventory drawdown totalled 53 million barrels in Q3 but OECD stocks are still ~150 million barrels above the five-year average.

Gasoline and Distillate stocks in the US were also at a two-year low in October while product stocks at the ARA hub in Europe were down 8.3% compared to September. From the demand perspective, Crude oil demand has outstripped supply since the start of 2016 and this year has continued to show robust demand. While supply grew 1.47% y/y on average in the first nine months, demand has grown by 2.75%.

Asia, Europe and the US have been the biggest contributors to demand this year as global economic recovery has taken a strong foothold. Considering that inventories are edging lower, demand remains strong and supply flat, we expect the medium term outlook for oil to remain positive. The oil forward curve now is reflecting a tightening market as WTI has started moving into backwardation while Brent is already in small backwardation. For natural gas, inventories ended the injection/refill season at 3784 Bcf, which is 2% lower compared to five year average and 5% lower compared to last year. Expected growth in natural gas exports and domestic natural gas consumption during winter will keep the bias positive for gas in the coming weeks.

Crude prices were a bit lower to start the week on Monday, slipping from their strongest level in more than two years amid indications that U.S. producers will ramp up output to take advantage of the recent rally.

Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by nine to 738 last week. It was the biggest jump since June, sparking concern that U.S. shale producers will ramp up output with prices holding near 28-month highs.

The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for domestic oil production.Losses were limited amid optimism that oil producing countries will agree to extend an output cut at their meeting at the end of this month.Under the original terms of the deal, OPEC and 10 other non-OPEC countries led by Russia agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels a day (bpd) for six months.

The agreement was extended in May of this year for a period of nine more months until March 2018 in a bid to reduce global oil inventories and support oil prices.Discussions are continuing in the run-up to the Nov. 30 meeting, which oil ministers from OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries will attend.

The cartel will release its monthly market report at approximately 6:00AM ET (1100GMT). The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.

Meanwhile, market players kept a watchful eye on developments in the Middle East as well as escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.Saudi Arabia is among the world’s top producers of oil and OPEC’s most influential member.Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., dipped 13 cents, or around 0.2%, to trade at $63.39 a barrel by 3:25AM ET (0825GMT). It rallied to $64.65 last Wednesday, a level not seen since June 2015.The global benchmark ended last week with an increase of approximately 2.4%, the fifth weekly gain in a row.Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures shed 4 cents, or about 0.1%, to $56.69 a barrel. It reached its best level since July 2015 at $57.92 on Wednesday of last week.WTI prices rose a fifth-straight week last week, gaining around 2%.

Oil's rally, which began in early October, has been largely driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance. Brent is over 40% above June's 2017 lows, while WTI is onethird higher than its 2017 lows.Natural gas futures lost 4.6 cents, or almost 1.5%, to $3.165 per million British thermal units.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW �

GOLD

Last week, Gold prices opened higher with gap and prices rose strongly for most of the week till high of 29696.

Prices corrected slightly in the last session and closed around 29491.Prices have bounced after taking strong support at 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 27603 till high of 30474, which is placed around 29771 level.Previously prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line and rallied strongly.

Prices have corrected sharply in the previous month and resumed its bullish trend in the last week. Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards next resistances placed around 29981 and 30163 levels.

BUY GOLD DEC ABOVE 29703 TGT 29941 SL 29548

� CRUDE OIL Last week, Crude Oil prices opened higher and prices rose strongly for first half of the week till high of 3765.

Later prices consolidated in a range of 3667-3755 levels for the remaining week. Prices have been rallying strongly since last three months after taking strong support around 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 1805 till high of 3780, which is placed around 2785 level. Prices have made an inverse head and shoulder chart pattern and broken out from its neckline of the pattern placed around 3682 level in the last week.

Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards immediate resistance placed around 3811 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 3570.

BUY NATURAL GAS ABOVE 204 TGT 212 SL 199.90

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

731.9

727.90

723.90

720.50

717.00

714.00

711.00

708.30

704.00

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

2760

2790

2828

2852

2890

2860

2820

2775

2740

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4122

4088

4063

4022

4000

3956

3931

3890

3859

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

19320

19200

19090

18985

18875

18770

18660

18555

18435

GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

3830

3786

3747

3683

3644

3581

3542

3478

3440

TMC

20-DEC-2017

7502

7442

7306

7184

7050

6926

6790

6668

6600

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

745.0

735.00

729.00

721.00

716.50

711.00

705.00

695.00

689.00

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

0 SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

3090

3025

2980

2925

2875

2825

2775

2725

2675

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4220

4170

4120

4070

4020

3980

3930

3870

3820

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

2015

19800

19500

19200

18900

18500

18100

17660

17320

0 GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

3850

3800

3750

3700

3660

3610

3560

3510

3460

TMC

20-DEC-2017

7552

7456

7354

7252

7150

7050

6900

6786

6666

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � SPICE COMPLEX NCDEX Jeera traded lower last weekon weak physical demand and good supplies. The arrivals have been higher during October this year at 3,760 tonnes compared to 2,130 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data. However, in the second half of Oct the arrivals have been reduced significantly to 963 tons Vs 2,795 tons in the first half. As per government data, Jeera exports during first five month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 63,085 tonnes, down 2.6% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Aug increase 46% on year to 13,879 tn. On the import front, country imported about 1,044 tonnes of jeera during the month of August about 209 percent higher than last year imports. Turmeric Dec futures closed lower last week on profit booking due to weak physical demand.

The prices have been pressurized on reports good supplies from the government auctions. The export of turmeric is down by 17.4% to 49,186 tonnes for the first 5 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been lower during October at 7,222 tonnes compared to 10,037 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data.

Turmeric futures traded down on lack of buying support while Dhaniya and Jeera futures extended downside due to profit booking. Strong support for Turmeric NCDEX (Dec) seen at Rs.6900/qtl level.

Prices of Jeera are likely to resume its upswing tracking low availability of stock in physical market.

Higher prices and strong export demand may cause Jeera acreage to increase by about 8-10% in Gujarat and the bordering districts of Rajasthan in 2017-18. Gujarat 2017-18 cumin sowing till Nov 6 seen at 23,300 hec vs 3,400 hec a year ago. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish due to higher carryover stocks. Trading range for Dhaniya NCDEX (Dec) seen between Rs.4800-5400/qtl levels. Improved export demand and short covering at lower levels likely to support reversal in Cardamom prices at lower levels. International Pepper Community (IPC) estimates that India would import 18,000 tonnes of Pepper in 2018 as against 16,000 tonnes in 2017.Sharp selling was seen in jeera due to possibility of bumper sowing in the current year. The sources stated that favourable sowing conditions in Rajasthan and Gujarat will witness strong jeera production in the current year.

The daily arrivals have been reported at 3000 bags against total demand of 1000 bags. The prices have been trading in the range of Rs 18000-18500 per quintal. The sources added that total carryover stocks are reported in the range of 7-8 lakh bags against 18-19 lakh bags of the last year in the same period.

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower last week as soybean arrivals have peaked, which put pressure on physical as well as futures prices. As per Agmarknet data, the arrivals in 1-10 Nov increased to 5.34 lt compared to 4.6 lt last year for same time. Arrivals since October in 2017 is about 17 lt as compared to 15 lt last year same period. Good demand for soy meal exports kept the prices supported prices last week.

Total exports of soy oilmeal in the first seven months of the fiscal started April is almost 5 times higher to 5.37 lakh tons compared to 1.07 lakh tons last year. U.S. soybean turned modestly higher on technical buying but rallies capped by fundamental pressure as USDA left its estimate of the U.S. 2017 soybean yield unchanged at 49.5 bushels per acre. Production for 2017 came in 6 mbu lower at 4.425 bbu caused the 17/18 US ending stocks to be reduced 5 mbu to 425 mbu. However, world ending stocks for 17/18 were raised 1.85 mt to 97.9 mt, as Brazil’s expected production was upped 1 mt to 108 mt. China has agreed to purchase another 12 MMT of 17/18 US soybeans during President Trump’s visit this week.

Mustard Dec futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking after it hit highest price since March 2017.

However, due to winter demand the prices closed little higher for the week. As per rabi sowing report from the government, the area under mustard as on10 Nov 2017 is little lower than last year’s acreage at 37 lakh ha. The area planted in Madhya Pradesh crossed 5 lakh ha compared to 60,000 ha last year while in Rajasthan the acreage reached only 10 lakh ha compared to 16.3 lakh ha last year. Support price for mustard in 2017-18 rose by 8.1% on year to 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. According to data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, country is still holding about 20 lakh tonnes of mustard from the last year as it is estimated that millers have crushed about 48 lt last year against the marketable surplus of 67.8 lt.Some recovery was seen in mustard seed market on the account of slow sowing progress of fresh sowing along with limited supplies in local mandies. The market sources stated that most of the parts of Rajasthan have witnessed less sowing of mustard seed crop so far in the current year as most of them are showing their interest towards chana crop.

The latest data of the state government pointed that mustard seed sowing has been declined by 50 percent from the last year in same period. Moreover, daily arrivals have been reported around 0.60-0.70 lakh bags, down 25 percent from average arrivals of last week. The NCDEX December futures swelled by Rs 36 per quintal to close at Rs 3996 per quintal today.

Refined Soy Oil Dec future surged higher last week on anticipation of import duty hike however, the prices have stabilize in last two trading sessions as import duty was not hiked. The current prices are trading at 9 months high due to good intake by the bulk traders on hope that the import hike may happen near future. Recently, Government hike the tariff value for soy oil by $15 per ton to $839 for the first half of Nov also support prices. Moreover, firm international prices, higher import duty and good demand from the stockists is supporting edible oil prices in India despite higher stocks and good oilseed production.

MCX CPO closed higher last week as the prices were supported by expectation of hike in import duty for edible oil. But, the government did not take any decision on increasing import duty on edible oil for now which slow down the price surge. For the second first half of Nov, the base import price for crude palm oil and refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil were raised by $2 and $3 per tn, respectively. According to SEA release, during Nov-Sep period, crude palm oil import is 57.34 lakh tonnes, up 9.5% from 52.34 lt during the same period of the previous oil year.

As per the latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture , the total sowing acreage of rabi oilseeds plunged by 2.83 % so far in the current year to reach 40.93 lakh hectares as on 10th November 2017 against 42.13 lakh hectares of the last year. The decline was reported in mustard seed as total acreage slumped by 3.50 percent to reach 37.04 lakh hectares against 38.14 lakh hectares of the last year. While other oilseeds such as Saflower oil seed reported at 0.33 lakh hectares against 0.25 lakh hectares of the last year.

� OTHER COMPLEX Chana Dec futures fall about 5% last week pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country. However, support in chana prices is seen due to hike in 50 percent import tax on all pea by the government. As per government sowing data chana is planted in 47.2 lakh ha as on 10 Nov, up by 43% compared to 33 lakh ha last year. Gram (chana) exceeds normal seasonal acreage in Madhya Pradesh as on 10th Nov 2017.

Madhya Pradesh is leading the gram acreage while country has reached more than 50% of average seasonal area. Moreover to encourage farmers to plant more chana, Government increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt MCX Cotton Nov futures closed lower last week prices as arrivals have increase in the country. Cotton exports from country are expected to affect due to hike in procurement prices in largest producing state of Gujarat. In November, cotton traded sideways in a range on higher than expected cotton production in the country. CCI has stared its procurement from Telangana and some parts of Gujarat and estimated to have procured about 62,000 bales at MSP this season. The arrivals in the current season during Oct are about 20.27 lakh bales compared to 18.72 lakh bales last year as per ICC. ICE cotton futures rose on Friday with the biggest one-day percentage gain in a week, supported by buying amid December options expiry and mill fixations. The USDA reduced the 17/18 world ending stocks number for cotton by 1.5 million bales to 90.88 million bales. All upland cotton 17/18 export sales for the week of November 2 came in at 205,297 RB, which was slightly lower than last week but 21.61% larger than a year ago.

Brazil again lowered its forecast for its wheat harvest, citing damage from weather setbacks ranging from drought to heavy rains - but failed to increase its import forecast, citing strong mill inventories.

Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau, reduced by further 313,000 tonnes, to a five-year low of 4.57m tonnes, its forecast for its ongoing 2017-18 wheat harvest.

The downgrade took to 32% the drop expected in production from last year's record high, and indeed left the crop less than 200,000 tonnes from setting a decade low.And it reflected growing pessimism over yields, now seen averaging 2.49 tonnes per hectare, particularly in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the top two growing states.As per the latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture. the total area sown during the current rabi season has been increased to 163.25 lakh hectares (ha), up 19 per cent from the previous year of 137.72 lakh ha. This was mainly due to rise in pulses and coarse cereals acreage.

Strong recovery was seen in wheat market in today's trading as government has doubled the import duty on wheat and peas. On Wednesday, the government has increased the import duty on wheat to 20 per cent from 10 percent to restrict cheap shipments and give positive price signal to farmers in the ongoing Rabi season. The government has taken this decision to encourage rabi sowing for the current year. However, this news has ignited smart rally in futures market as prices have witnessed short covering today. The NCDEX December Wheat futures increased by 1.37 percent to close at Rs 1772 per quintal.

The area under pulses stood at 63.79 lakh ha, up 40 per cent from the previous rabi season's 45.48 lakh ha.

Among pulses, chana acreage , went up to 47.2 lakh ha from 32.93 lakh ha last year. The area under wheat was reported at 27.39 lakh ha compared to 25.72 lakh ha last year. Coarse cereals witnessed a whopping 22 per cent increase in area under cultivation with the total area covered so far going up to 23.41 lakh ha against 19.17 lakh ha during the previous rabi season.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW � GUARSEED Guar seed prices have been correcting sharply since last two months after making a high of 4344 in the August month. Previously prices have rallied strongly for multiple times after taking strong support at its medium term rising trend line. Currently prices have taken strong support around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 3235 till high of 4344, which is placed around 3743 level. Prices have made multiple trend reversal candlestick patterns in which one is hammer and a long legged doji signifying a potential reversal from these levels.Prices are expected to recover towards immediate resistance placed around 3887 level.

BUY GUARSEED DEC ABOVE 3812 TGT 3933 SL 3709

� JEERA Jeera prices opened week in the last week and prices lower in the first session of the week till low of 19000.

Prices weaker further till low of 18765. and consolidated for the remaining week in the range of 19300-18750 levels. Prices have also retested its previous short term declining trend line breakout level19300 and are expected to rise further from these levels towards next strong resistances placed around 19800-20400 levels.

On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 18700 decline below this level may test the level of 18300-18000.

BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 19600 TGT 20040 SL 19270

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