Commodity report 01 june 2015 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 JUN 2015

661

643

625

619

607

601

589

571

553

SYBEANIDR

19 JUN 2015

4023

4125

4047

4013

3969

3935

3891

3813

3735

RMSEED

19 JUN 2015

4429

4366

4303

4276

4240

4213

4177

4114

4051

JEERAUNJHA

19 JUN 2015

18341 18071

17801

17663

17531 17393 17261 16991

16721

CHANA

19 JUN 2015

5056

4956

4856

4822

4756

4722

4656

4556

4456

CASTORSEED

19 JUN 2015

4152

4100

4048

4017

3996

3965

3944

3892

3840

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19 JUN 2015

677

653

629

621

605

597

581

557

533

SYBEANIDR

19 JUN 2015

4398

4261

4124

4052

3987

3915

3850

3713

3576

RMSEED

19 JUN 2015

4623

4495

4367

4308

4239

4180

4111

3983

3855

JEERAUNJHA

19 JUN 2015

22228 20763

19298

18411

17833 16946 16368 14903

13438

CHANA

19 JUN 2015

5349

4139

4929

4859

4719

4649

4509

4299

4089

CASTORSEED

19 JUN 2015

4323

4217

4111

4049

4005

3943

3899

3793

3687


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

29 MAY 2015 118

115

113

111

110

108

106

104

101

30 JUN 2015

402

395

390

388

381

374

370

362

19 JUN 2015 4325 4117

3977

3893

3665

3493

3480

3470

3458

27000

26930

26855

26785

26710

26565

26420

405

GOLD

05 JUN 2015

2729 27145 0

LEAD

29 MAY 2015 134

133

130

128

125

123

121

120

118

NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 186

180

175

172

169

166

162

158

151

834

822

814

807

799

789

779

764

38705

38527

38372

38194

38039

37706

37373

NICKEL

29 MAY 2015 849

SILVER

03 JUL 2015 3937 39038 1

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 MAY 2015

120

118

115

113

110

108

105

103

99

COPPER

30 JUN 2015

425

411

400

393

386

379

369

355

341

19 JUN 2015 4423

4170

4000

3873

3747

3620

3411

3400

3386

GOLD

05 JUN 2015 28371 27888

27405

27132

26922

26649

26439

25956

25473

LEAD

29 MAY 2015

137

132

128

126

123

121

117

112

108

NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015

222

203

188

178

169

159

146

136

124

888

859

836

821

792

772

743

722

711

39699

39024

38525

37850

37351

36177

35003

CRUDE OIL

NICKEL

29 MAY 2015

SILVER

05 JUL 2015 42047 40873


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Draghi: Growth is 'too low everywhere' in Europe : European Central Bank head Mario Draghi said that "growth is too low everywhere" in the 19-country eurozone despite a modest recovery. Draghi made the blunt remark as he opened a conference on the unemployment problem plaguing several of the European Union member countries that share the euro currency. "Recently, economic conditions have improved somewhat in Europe," he said at the ECB's conference on inflation and unemployment in Sintra, Portugal. "But growth is too low everywhere." He said that inflation was too low — a sign of economic weakness — and that "people in Europe are frustrated by the lack of growth they have witnessed in recent years." US officials have pressed Europe to tackle its growth problem. The eurozone remains a key market for many US firms and its health is an important factor for the global economy. Greek crisis talks as Tsipras, Merkel meet The eurozone has struggled with a crisis over too much government and bank debt since Greece reported its deficit was out of control in 2009. Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Cyprus have been bailed out by other members, and Spain got a bailout for its banks. European governments are facing lower than desired growth and high unemployment as they restrain spending to try to reduce debt.

✍ China invites investors to build $318 bn worth of projects: China's state planning agency on Monday released a list of more than 1,000 proposed projects totalling 1.97 trillion yuan (USD 317.75 billion) that it is inviting private investors to help fund, build and operate. The National Development and Reform Commission said the 1,043 projects, in sectors such as transport, water conservancy and public services, will be done as public-private partnerships (PPP). Beijing is striving to rein in local government debt, estimated at around USD 3 trillion, but there are signs that the clampdown is having an adverse impact on existing projects. Chinese policymakers on May 15 ordered banks to keep lending and not reduce the size of their loans to local government projects under construction, especially urban subways and affordable housing.

BULLION ✍ Gold Gold prices inched up in Asia Friday on sentiment of continued easy monetary policy globally. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery rose 0.13% to $1,205.70 a troy ounce. Silver for July delivery rose 0.01% to $17.133 a troy ounce. Copper for July delivery fell 0.09% to $2.848 a pound. The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy after its two-day


board meeting around 1230 Tokyo time (0330 GMT) with expectations of standing pat. Later in the day, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda holds a news conference at 1530 (0630 GMT) to explain the board's decision. Overnight, gold futures fell mildly on Thursday amid downbeat economic data in the U.S. , Europe and China, as metal traders digested Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve's April meeting, which provided further indications of a delayed interest rate hike. The Fed reiterated that it will take a "data-driven" approach to its when it is reasonably confident it has seen significant improvements in the economy. The Fed blamed weak first quarter GDP growth on "largely transitory factors" such as severe winter weather and a West Coast port slowdown that dented exports. In April, the FOMC said consumer price inflation continued to fall below its long-term targeted goal of 2%. Medium-term forecasts for inflation, which the Fed generally defines as the next two years, projected to "move closer but remained" below the FOMC's 2% goal. Economists expect the CPI to increase modestly for April on a monthly basis by 0.1%.

ENERGY � Crude oil Crude oil futures rise as concerns that U.S. shale production could rebound in the months ahead and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed. Activity was likely to remain thin on Monday, as markets in the U.K., U.S. and Germany are all shut for public holidays. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for July delivery shed 47 cents, or 0.8%, to trade at $59.25 a barrel during European morning hours. Prices held in a range between $59.11 and $60.01. On Friday, Nymex oil lost $1.00, or 1.65%, to end at $59.72 after data showed that the decline in U.S. drilling slowed down last week. According to industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by only one last week to 659, marking the 24th straight week of declines. Oil traders have been paying close attention to the shrinking rig count in recent months for signs it will eventually reduce the glut of crude flowing into the market. However, the rate of decline has slowed in recent weeks, fuelling concerns that some shale oil companies will dial up their output in the months ahead if prices stabilize near current levels.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.25% at 96.50 early Monday, the strongest level since April 28. The greenback strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that interest rates will be raised later in the year. The dollar had also been boosted on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data supported the case for a rate hike later this year. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery dipped 23 cents, or 0.35%, to trade at $65.14 a barrel. Brent prices declined $1.17, or 1.76%, on Friday to close at $65.37.


✍ Natural gas Natural gas prices rebounded from a more than two-week low struck in the previous session on Wednesday, as market participants looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Natural gas for delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 1.21%, to trade at $2.884 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours.Weather forecasting models called for slightly warmer than average temperatures across the U.S. over the next ten days, although not yet enough to significantly boost cooling demand. Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.989 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 59.0% above year-ago levels and 1.7% below the five-year average for this time of year. Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have made up for most of last winter’s unusually strong demand.Elsewhere on the Nymex, Crude oil for delivery in July lost 9 cents, or 0.15%, to trade at $57.94 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery slumped 0.68% to trade at $1.891 per gallon. BASE METAL ✍ Copper Copper prices held near a four-week low on Friday, as investors looked ahead to the release of key data later in the session for further indications over the timing of a U.S. rate increase and the strength of the economy. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Copper for July delivery inched up 0.5 cents, or 0.18%, to trade at $2.774 a pound during European morning hours. Futures were likely to find support at $2.753, the low from April 28, and resistance at $2.834, the high from May 26.A day earlier, copper prices slumped to $2.758, the weakest level since April 28, before settling at $2.768, down 0.9 cents, or 0.34%, as the U.S. dollar rallied amid speculation the Federal Reserve was on track to raise interest rates in September. Economic data released in the past week, including reports on inflation, new home sales, business investment and consumer confidence all indicated that the economy is gaining momentum after a slowdown in the first quarter, supporting the case for higher interest rates later this year.Later in the day, the U.S. was to release the weekly report on unemployment claims, as well as data on pending home sales, as investors look for fresh indications on how the economy is performing.The U.S dollar, which measures the greenback’s strength against a


trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.25% to 97.10 from Wednesday’s five week peaks of 97.88.

✍ Zinc Taking weak cues from Asian trade and sluggish demand at domestic market, zinc prices fell by 0.91 per cent to 141.25 per kg in futures trade today as the participants reduced their exposure. Zinc futures for May 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 141.25 per kg, down by 0.91 per cent after opening at Rs. 142.65 against the previous closing price of Rs. 142.55. However, losses were curbed due to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 1075 metric tonnes to 719600 metric tonnes as on May 29, 2015. Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany.

✍ Lead Lead futures fell by 0.53 per cent on Wednesday at the domestic markets taking weak cues from global markets in the midst of low demand at domestic spot market. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the May 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 123 per kg, down by 0.53 per cent, after opening at Rs 124.35, against a previous close of Rs 123.65. However, losses were curbed due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME lead stocks fell by 25 metric tonnes to 161475 metric tonnes as on May 26, 2015.

✍ Nickel Nickel futures were trading on a flat note in the domestic market on Monday as investors and speculators refrained from booking fresh positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand for nickel in the domestic spot market. However, a pickup in Japanese exports last month signaled a recovery in the world’s third biggest economy, lifting the demand outlook for the base metal. Japan’s overseas shipments climbed 8 per cent, year on year in April 2015, topping the 6 per cent analysts’ estimate. At the MCX, Nickel futures for May 2015 contract is trading at Rs 809.90 per 1 kg, down by 0.07 per cent after opening at Rs 811, against the previous closing price of Rs 810.50


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Chana Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,693 per quintal, up by 2.87 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,632 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,562. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,712. Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices. India is the largest producer of chickpea followed by Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. India produces around 6 to 8 million tonnes and contributes around 70 per cent of the total world production. Befor closing this week Chana prices closed lower by 1.15 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,635 per quintal, down by 1.15 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,681 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,689. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,625.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 4 per cent on Monday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs. 17,950 per quintal, up by 4 per cent, after opening at Rs. 17,400 against the previous closing price of Rs. 17,260. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 17,950. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries. Global output of Jeera is around 2.2 lakh MT per year, of which India produces about 1.5 lakh MT per year.

✍ Castorseed Castorseed rose by 0.41 per cent in futures trade as speculators enlarged position triggered by a firming trend in the physical markets. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for May 2015 contract were trading at Rs. 3,930 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.41 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,958 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,946. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,925 till the trading. (At 12.20 PM today). Traders attributed rise in castorseed prices to strong demand from consuming industries in physical markets but higher output estimates limited the gains. Besides, rising export demand also influenced castorseed prices. Meanwhile, production in 2014-15 estimated higher at over 15 lakh tonne as compared to 11.30 lakh tonne in previous


year. Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46 per cent oil recovery. On Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the rise in demand from consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015 contract were trading at Rs. 3,942 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.36 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,918 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,928. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 3,945 till the trading.

� Mustard seed Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 1.23 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for May 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,015 per quintal, down by 1.23 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,035 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,065. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,010 Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.


LEGAL DISCLAIMER This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.