✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
19 JUN 2015
3848
3788
3728
3706
3668
3646
3608
3548
3488
SYBEANIDR
19 JUN 2015
3848
3788
3728
3706
3668
3646
3608
3548
3488
RMSEED
20 MAY 2015
3909
3836
3763
3737
3690
3664
3617
3544
3471
JEERAUNJHA
20 MAY 2015
19943
19323
18703
18496
18083 17876 17463 16843
16223
CHANA
20 MAY 2015
4142
4082
4022
3991
3962
3931
3902
3842
3782
CASTORSEED
20 MAY 2015
4002
3890
3778
3717
3666
3605
3554
3442
3330
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
19 JUN 2015
4213
4030
3847
3766
3664
3583
3481
3298
3115
SYBEANIDR
19 JUN 2015
4212
4029
3846
3765
3663
3582
3480
3297
3114
RMSEED
20 MAY 2015
4128
3977
3826
3769
3675
3618
3524
3373
3222
JEERAUNJHA
20 MAY 2015
21863
20523
19183
18736
17843 17396 16503 15163
13826
CHANA
20 MAY 2015
4545
4348
4151
4055
3954
3858
3757
3560
3363
CASTORSEED
20 MAY 2015
4254
4067
3880
3768
3693
3581
3506
3319
3132
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
EXPIRY DATE 30 APR
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
COPPER
30 APR
399
394
389
386
384
381
378
379
368
CRUDE OIL
20 APR
3724
3650
3580
3534
3508
3462
3436
3364
3292
GOLD
05 JUN
27183
26960
26737
26412
26514
26189
26291
26068
25845
LEAD
30 APR
132
130
129
128
127
126
125
123
121
NATURAL GAS
27 APR
176
173
169
167
165
163
161
159
157
NICKEL
30 APR
839
823
807
796
791
780
775
759
743
SILVER
05 MAY
38134
37613
37092
36773
36571
36252
36050
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
355
35008
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30 APR
130
124
118
116
113
110
107
104
101
COPPER
30 APR
433
415
397
390
379
372
361
343
325
CRUDE OIL
20 APR
4477
4127
3777
3633
3427
3283
3077
2727
2377
GOLD
05 JUN
28053
27595
27137
26972
26679
26514
26221
25763
25305
LEAD
30 APR
143
137
131
129
125
123
120
114
108
NATURAL GAS
27 APR
200
188
175
170
162
157
150
137
125
NICKEL
30 APR
903
864
825
805
786
766
747
708
669
SILVER
05 MAY
39385
38395
37405
36930
36415
35940
35425
34435
33445
ZINC
30 APR
149
145
142
140
138
136
134
132
130
ALUMINIUM
30 APR
130
124
118
116
113
110
107
104
101
✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2015: Moody's Analytics: Indian economy is expected to grow marginally higher at 7.3 percent during the year compared with 7.2 percent in 2014 and interest rate cuts will buttress private sector spending, said a group company of global rating agency Moody's. "Our tracking model suggests that first quarter GDP growth is tracking around 7.3 percent , a slowdown from prior quarters. But we expect this softness will prove temporary with improving domestic demand to help India's GDP grow 7.3 percent for all of 2015," International Monetary Fund projected that India will overtake China as the fastest growing emerging economy in 2015-16 by clocking a growth rate of 7.5 percent , helped by its recent policy initiatives, pick-up in investments and lower oil prices.
World Bank too has similar GDP growth forecast for India for the current fiscal year. India's economy is on a cyclical upswing and forward-looking indicators suggest domestic demand is gathering momentum. China's economic growth slows to 7% in Q1, six-year low: China's economy grew 7.0 percent in the first quarter, as expected but still its slowest rate in six years, reinforcing bets that policymakers will take more steps to bolster growth. Economists polled by Agency had expected China's gross domestic product (GDP)to rise 7.0 percent in January-March compared with a year ago. In the last quarter of 2014, China's economy grew 7.3 percent on an annual basis. On a quarterly basis, economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent between January and March after seasonal adjustments, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, compared with growth of 1.5 percent in the previous three months. Factory output climbed 5.6 percent in March from a year ago, below forecasts for a 6.9 percent gain. Fixed-asset investment, a vital driver of the economy, rose 13.5 percent compared with the same month last year. Analysts had expected a rise of 13.8 percent. Retail sales expanded 10.2 percent compared with expectations for a 10.9 percent gain. The disappointing data supports analysts' predictions for China's economic growth to slide to 7 percent this year, the lowest in a quarter of a century.
Two big risks for emerging world: World Bank president: The impact of lower commodity prices on big emerging market exporters and the prospects of higher interest rates in the United States present major risks to the developing world, Dr Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank Group. "What we're saying to the developing markets is you've really got to now get serious about structural reforms," he said in an interview on "Squawk on the Street." Prospects are low for Latin America this year, and Russia, Brazil and Nigeria are creating drag on the global economy in the face of lower oil prices and a broader decline in commodities, he said. A rate hike by the Federal Reserve expected to come later this year could also create headwinds, Kim said. In the past, tighter monetary policy in the United States has negatively impacted emerging markets because investors rein in money as capital becomes more expensive.
� BULLION Gold firms near $1,200 but poised for second weekly dip: Gold firmed around USD 1,200 an ounce on Friday but the metal was headed for its second straight weekly drop, weighed down by speculation over the timing of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.
� FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to USD 1,200.10 an ounce by 0040 GMT, after dropping 0.3 percent on Thursday. The metal is down 0.6 percent for the week. * Investors are closely watching US economic data to gauge when the Fed will begin to raise interest rates. Strong data could prompt the US central bank to soon hike rates, a move that could dent demand for bullion. * However, despite sluggish data and a softer dollar on Thursday, bullion logged in losses on mixed signals regarding the rate hike. * Data on Thursday showed US housing starts rose far less than expected in March and factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region grew modestly this month, suggesting the economy could struggle to rebound from a soft patch hit in the first quarter. * There are expectations growth will rebound in the second quarter, but the lukewarm data suggest the momentum will probably not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates before September.
* Fed officials on Thursday were at public odds over when the US central bank should start raising rates. * Physical demand for gold has also been subdued with prices holding near the key USD 1,200 mark. * Investors will be watching more US data due later in the day and the dollar for trading cues.
� MARKET NEWS * The dollar wallowed at its lowest in over a week against a basket of major currencies early on Friday, having suffered yet another setback overnight in the hands of more underwhelming US economic data. Silver prices likely to trade negative: Silver rose 1.5 percent at $16.35 an ounce. Manufacturing activity growth in New York State unexpectedly contracted in April, weakening for a third straight month as the pace of new orders fell to a multi-year low, a New York Federal Reserve survey showed on Wednesday. The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index fell to -1.19 in April from March's 6.90. This was the first negative read for the index since December. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise to 7.0 this month. A reading above zero indicates expansion.
� BASE METAL Copper hits near 4-week low ahead of China growth data: * Some Chile copper output still down after floods -CESCO * LME tin breaks below $16,000 T for first time since June 2010 (Updates with closing prices) LONDON, April 14 - Copper hit a near four-week low on Tuesday as concern grew over demand in top consumer China a day before the country gives an update on its economic growth. China, which consumes some 45 percent of the world's copper, will report gross domestic product for the first quarter on Wednesday and traders say there are risks the figure may come in weaker than expected after poor trade news this week. The Asian giant's export sales shrank 15 percent in March, deepening concern about sputtering growth.
"This gradual managed slowdown (in China) will continue and that's not good for copper," "Second-quarter demand is expected to improve, but that will just stop (copper) prices weakening significantly. We still expect a surplus of about 300,000 tonnes (this year)." Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped to a low of $5,900 a tonne, its weakest since March 20, before paring losses to close at $5,950, down 0.7 percent. Copper has consolidated since hitting 5-1/2 year lows in January. Supply disruptions limited copper's losses, however. Copper output in the Atacama region of Chile that was hardest hit by floods last month is still almost completely at a standstill. In other metals, tin slid to $15,865 a tonne, its weakest since June 2010, but rebounded to be bid at $16,275, up 1.1 percent, after failing to trade in closing open outcry rings. Prices have struggled as slowing global growth has hurt electronics demand and supply from Myanmar has risen. LME nickel slid to a near six-year low of $12,205 a tonne before bouncing back to end at $12,550, up 1.2 percent. The metal has been under pressure from rising LME stocks, destocking by stainless steel mills and weak Chinese demand, though some analysts are starting to call the bottom. "You've got some signs that demand is starting to pick up, but there's a lot of nickel sloshing around," said analyst Leon Westgate at ICBC Standard Bank in London. "You're going to have to start eating into LME stocks to give a visual indicator to the market that things are tightening up before you start to see people piling in on a speculative basis." Benchmark zinc shed 0.6 percent to close at $2,194 a tonne and lead fell 0.6 percent to $1,979. The two metals have rallied in recent weeks but failed to break their 200-day moving averages, a technical indicator that sent a sell signal to chart-based traders.
� ENERGY NYMEX crude weaker in Asia as investors mull supply, production curbs: Crude oil prices dropped in early Asia on Friday with investors noting massive oversupply threats as well as efforts to curb production, making for a mixed outlook. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for May delivery fell 0.45% to $56.46 a barrel. Overnight, crude oil futures rose modestly on Thursday extending recent gains, following Opec forecasts
of a slowdown in U.S. production in the coming months. On the Intercontinental Exchange, Brent crude for June delivery edged up 0.54 or 0.85% to 63.86 a barrel on Thursday. Energy traders are intently focused on supply, as crude storage in the U.S. for the week ending April 10 reached 483.1 million barrels, the highest level in at least 80 years.
In its monthly market watch released on Thursday, Opec said U.S. oil supply would increase to 13.65 millions barrels per day through the second quarter before flattening for the remainder of the year. Separately, Opec said Saudi Arabia, its largest producer, increased output for March by 390,000 a day to 10.1 million bpd for the month.
The spike in output pushed crude production to a near record-high and the highest by the oil-rich area since September, 2013. The forecasts come on the heels of expectations for declining shale field production in the U.S. Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that shale production next month will drop from its current level of 5.02 million barrels in April to 4.98 million bpd in May. Reductions in output in the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in South Texas will spur the decline, according to the EIA. The U.S. is dangerously close to reaching full storage capacity for crude, a development which could force producers to slow output. In early-April, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi said his nation would only slash oil production if other producers followed.
Geopolitical issues continued to weigh on crude, as Al Qaeda operatives reportedly gained control of a major airport in Yemen. Shiite-led Houthi rebels have battled Sunni Muslims from Saudi Arabia in the area since late March when a Houthi advance forced Yemen president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to flee the country. Al Qaeda also reportedly captured a major seaport and oil terminal in Southern Yemen.
� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS NCDEX ties up with DD Kisan to provide agri-price information NCDEX has tied up with public broadcaster Prasar Bharati for providing spot and futures prices of farm items to the soon-to-be-launched DD Kisan' channel. Besides providing data for price tickers, NCDEX will also provide news stories, expert analysis
and feature stories to showcase the economic turnaround stories from hinterlands and rural India. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in this regard last week.The government and Prasar Bharati are preparing in full swing forlaunching the channel at the earliest. In his 2014-15 Budget speech, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had allocated Rs 100 crore for launch of Kisan channel to provide real-time information on various farming and agricultural matters.
� NCDEX to set up global exchange at GIFT City National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) is planning to establish an international commodity and derivatives exchange at the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in GIFT city in Gandhinagar. NCDEX intends to develop an international standard commodity and derivatives exchange providing electronic platform for facilitating trading,clearing and settlement of securities, commodities, interest rates, currencies, other classes of assets and derivatives by global investors in IFSC in GIFT City subject to necessary approvals and operating guidelines for the International Financial Services Centre. Investment and starting time is yet to be decided by the company as MoU has been just signed. GIFT SEZ has been notified as an International Financial Services Centre by Government of India as India’s first International Financial Services Centre. � Chana Chana continued to be rising last week as rising domestic demand supported the prices. Reports of lower production along with crop damage prospects supported the prices further. Profit booking at the higher levels was also noted by end of the week. Rates found some strong resistanceat near the psychological 4000 mark.
At NCDEX Chana May contract rose more than 2.86% touched high of 4050 level on thursday.Chana May contract is likely to trade bullish for both short term and intra day with short term support at 3900 and resistance at 4100. As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, production of pulses estimated at 18.43 million tonnes is lower by 1.35 million tonnes than the last year’s production. Chana production estimated at 8.28 million tons vs 9.53 million tons last year. In order to keep prices for Pulses under check, the Govt has decided to extent duty-free imports till Sept. Unseasonal rain in March brought a heavy loss to crops of pulses. As per USDA, expected pulses production in US is up by 8% to 2,232,630 MT during 2014 from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014- 15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield.
✍ Soyabean Soyabean futures exhibited mixed trend on NCDEX as April contract traded higher on account of dwindling supplies from the major producing belts. While June contract traded lower on limited buying support in the spot market. The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 3641.00/Quintal, up by 0.05% or Rs 2.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3639.00. The open interest of the contract were 4100 lots. The contract for June delivery was trading at Rs 3638.00/Quintal, down by 0.16% or Rs 6.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3644.00. The open interest of the contract were 80650 lots on NCDEX.
✍ Castor seed castor seed futures traded down on NCDEX as traders booked their profits at existing higher levels with low demand in the spot market. Further, higher arrivals of new crop from the major producing belts too supported prices’ downside.
The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 3619.00, down by 0.77% or Rs 28.00 from its
previous closing of Rs 3647.00. The open interest of the contract were 3030 lots.
The contract for May delivery was trading at Rs 3686.00, down by 0.51% or Rs 19.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3705.00. The open interest of the contract were 140580 lots on NCDEX.
� Jeera Jeera futures traded marginally higher on NCDEX as investors increased their holdings due to strong demand in the spot market. Further, expectation of lower production following adverse weather conditions in major producing belts with lower acreage, too supported Jeera prices' uptrend.
The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 17500.00, up by 0.03% or Rs 5.00 from its previous closing of Rs 17495.00. The open interestof the contract were 288.00 lots.
The contract for May delivery was trading at Rs 17805.00, up by 0.17% or Rs 30.00 from its previous closing of Rs 17775.00. The open interestof the contract 19923.00 lots on NCDEX.
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