Commodity report ways2capital 16 may 2016

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31MAY 2016

106.50

105.30

104.10

103.55

102.90

102.35

101.70

100.50

99.30

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

319.80

316.45

313.10

311.50

309.75

308.10

306.40

303.

299.70

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3276

3235

3194

3176

3153

3135

3112

3071

3030

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

30904

30586

30268

30151

29950

29833

29632

29314

28996

LEAD

31MAY 2016

119.05

117.70

116.35

115.65

115

114.30

113.65

112.30

110.95

NATURAL GAS

25 MAY 2016

160.50

154.30

148.10

144.80

141.90

138.60

135.70

129.50

123.30

NICKEL

31MAY 2016

606.80

597.90

589

584.90

580.10

576

571.20

562.30

553.40

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

43043

42278

41513

41243

40748

40478

39983

39218

38453

ZINC

31MAY 2016

131.95

129.90

127.95

127.20

125.95

125.20

123.95

121.95

119.95

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31MAY 2016

113.50

110.20

106.90

104.95

103.60

101.65

100.30

97

93.70

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

349.35

336.95

324.55

317.20

312.15

304.80

299.75

287.35

274.95

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3842

3595

3348

3253

3101

3006

2854

2607

2360

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

31776

31168

30560

30297

29952

29689

29344

28736

28128

LEAD

31MAY 2016

130.70

125.85

121

118

116.15

113.10

111.3

106.45

101.60

NATURAL GAS

25 MAY 2016

164.20

156.90

149.60

145.50

142.30

138.20

135

127.70

120.40

NICKEL

31MAY 2016

670.10 642.20

614.30

597.60

586.40

569.70

558.50

530.60

502.70

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

45816

44219

42622

41798

41025

40201

39428

37831

36234

ZINC

31MAY 2016

145

138.55

132..10

129.30

125.60

122.85

119.20

112.70

106.30

WEEKLY MCX CALL BUY GOLD JUN ABOVE 30200 TGT 30500 SL 29900 BUY CRUDEOIL JUN ABOVE 3200 TGT 3300 SL 3094 Previous WEEKLY CALL BUY GOLD JUN ABOVE 30000 TGT 30300 SL 29700 - CLOSED AT 30034 SELL ZINC MAY BELOW 124.50 TGT 122.50 SL 126.50 - TGT ACHEIVED. ✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 MAY 2016 67.35

67.20

67.05

67

66.95

66.85

66.80

66.65

66.55

EURINR

27 MAY 2016 76.95

76.65

76.35

76.20

76.05

75.90

75.75

75.40

75.10

GBPINR

27 MAY 2016

97.20

96.85

96.70

96.50

96.35

96.15

95.80

95.45

JPYINR

27 MAY 2016 62.20

62

61.75

61.60

61.55

61.40

61.30

61.05

60.85

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

97 .60

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

USDINR

27 MAY 2016 68.20

67.75

67.30

67.10

66.85

66.70

66.40

66

65.55

EURINR

27 MAY 2016 77.50

77

76.55

76.30

76.10

75.85

75.60

75.20

74.70

GBPINR

27 MAY 2016 99.50

98.50

97.50

97

96.50

96.05

95.50

94.50

93.50

JPYINR

27 MAY 2016 65.20

64

62.80

62.15

61.65

60.95

60.45

59.25

58.10

WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY JPYINR MAY ABOVE 61.70 TGT 62.10 SL 61.40 BUY EURINR MAY ABOVE 76 TGT 76.40 SL 75.60

Previous WEEKLY CALL SELL GBPINR MAY BELOW 96.40 TGT 95.70 SL 97.10 - MADE LOW OF 95.9525 SELL USDINR MAY BELOW 66.80 TGT 66.40 SL 67.20 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUN 2016

679

670

661

658

652

649

643

634

625

SYBEANIDR

20 JUN 2016

4123

4078

4033

4010

3988

3965

3943

3898

3853

RMSEED

20 JUN 2016

4633

4557

4481

4453

4405

4377

4329

4253

4177

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUN 2016

17290

17110

16930

16840

16750

16660

16570

16390

16210

CHANA

20 JUN 2016

6198

6052

5906

5849

5760

5703

5614

5468

5322

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUN 2016

733

708

683

669

658

644

633

608

583

SYBEANIDR

20 JUN 2016

4489

4334

4179

4083

4024

3928

3869

3714

3559

RMSEED

20 JUN 2016

5023

4830

4637

4531

4444

4338

4251

4058

3865

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUN 2016

18810

18145

17480

17115

16815

16450

16150

15485

14820

CHANA

20 JUN 2016

6329

6134

5939

5865

5670

5549

5354

5159

5744

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL CHANA JUN BELOW 5800 TGT 5700 SL 5902 BUY JEERA JUN ABOVE 17000 TGT 17300 SL 16698

Previous WEEKLY CALL SELL CHANA JUN BELOW 5659 TGT 5578 SL 5733 - SL BUY DHANIYA JUN ABOVE 7240 TGT 7350 SL 7124 - TGT ACHIVED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Bullion Precious metals prices rose on Friday, buoyed by weak U.S. equity markets and chart-based strength, as it shrugged off a higher dollar and strong U.S. economic data suggesting a brightening outlook for the economy Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings stood at 851.13 up 5.94 tonnes, from previous business day.

Holdings of the largest silver backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's i shares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10421.95 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.44% at 30034 buoyed by weak equity markets and chart-based strength, as it shrugged off a higher dollar and strong U.S. economic data suggesting a brightening outlook for the economy. Bullion has rallied 20 percent this year as concerns about the strength of the global economy prompted traders to pare expectations for U.S. rate increases by the Federal Reserve this year. Global demand for gold soared markedly during the first three months of the year, the World Gold Council said, saying that it was the strongest first quarter on record. Gold demand rallied a whopping 21% year-on-year to 1,289 tonnes in the first quarter, the industry-linked organization said, adding that the boom came on the back of especially strong investment demand – particularly for gold-backed ETFs, which saw inflows at 363.7 tonnes, rocketing over 300% and booking the highest point since the start of 2009. India's gold demand in the first quarter slumped 39 percent from a year ago due to a rally in gold prices, jewellers' strike and as consumers had delayed purchases hoping a cut in India's 10 percent import duty on gold in the national budget, the World Gold Council said. Dealers were offering discounts of up to $15 an ounce to the global spot benchmark this week, up from a discount of up to $12 in the previous week.

Silver on MCX settled up 0.42% at 40974 as prices recovered tracking firmness in gold and base metals prices after prices seen pressure after strong U.S. economic data suggested a brightening outlook for the economy. U.S. retail sales jumped 1.3 percent last month, the largest gain since March 2015 and a bigger rise than the 0.8 percent expected. The overall reading received a lift from auto sales, which surged 3.2% on the month. Still, core retail sales, which discounted the effects of auto purchases, increased by 0.8% above forecasts for gains of 0.5% ✍ Energy WTI oil prices rose by 6.3 percent last week to close at $46.2 per barrel U.S. crude hitting six-month highs as investors weighed a forecast for tighter global supplies against signs of another storage build at the hub for U.S. crude futures.

Worries of a major outage in Nigerian crude also boosted the market. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and (Qua Ibo) the largest crude grade, set to account for 317,000 bpd of exports in June. It was not immediately clear by how much of the output was reduced by the pipeline problem. The U.S. government unexpectedly said crude inventories fell the first time since March, adding to concerns over supply outages in Canada and Nigeria.Crude oil settled flat as a slight uptick in OPEC production in April reinforced long-term concerns related to the excessive supply glut on global energy markets. OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188,000 barrels per day to average 32.44 million bpd, according to secondary sources. It came amid considerable increases in Iran, Iraq and Angola, partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the 13-member cartel, saw its production fall slightly by 8,000 bpd to 10.125 million bpd. Output in the Saudi kingdom still remains near all-time record high. ✍ Base Metal Copper on MCX settled up 0.45% at 309.85 after a string of declines as some investors closed out positions that had been betting on lower prices though others remained cautious ahead Chinese economic data .LME Copper prices plunged 3.8 percent to close at $4627.5 per tonne as dollar gained momentum after Taro A so, Japan’s finance minister, said it would be “natural” for the government to intervene in the markets if the yen keeps logging “one-sided” gains. However, sharp losses were cushioned as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the Bank of Japan is likely to expand monetary stimulus either in June or July. Also, producers from Codelco to Glencore Plc gave optimistic longer term outlooks at an industry conference in Miami as three years of declining prices deters production

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.32% at 126.5 as support seen after data showed inventories in warehouses registered with the LME continued to erode, falling to 390,375 tonnes. The figure is the lowest since July 2009, about two thirds below the record peak in 2013, although some stock is thought to have been shifted to cheaper storage outside LME warehouses. Zinc production will trail consumption by 352,000 metric tons this year, the ILZSG said in April, widening its deficit forecast from 152,000 tons in October. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong fell 10,600 to 350,700 tonnes past week. Some goods were shipped from Shanghai to Tianjin as the price spread between Shanghai and Tianjin was bigger than freight charges. Zinc smelters preferred to deliver goods to Tianjin, reducing arriving shipments in Shanghai. But arriving shipments in Tianjin were also limited, with inventories down. Outward shipments in Guangdong increased due to bargain hunters, so local inventories also slid. Zinc stocks and cancelled warrants both down 1,125 tonnes at 390,375 tonnes and 25,375 tonnes respectively. Lead at $1,713 was up $2 after a marginal stock increase of 25 tonnes to 176,075 tonnes. TCs of domestic zinc concentrate (50%) held stable at 5,100-5,300 yuan per tonne (zinc content) this past week, and those for imported zinc concentrate (50%) were $110-130 per dry metric tonne. Supply tightness in North China is expected to ease, though, as an increasing number of mines restart due to warmer weather.

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.52% at 580.9 as prices bounced back as optimism over a rebound in U.S. economic growth overshadowed a stronger dollar, but high inventories are keeping market participants cautious about the future direction of prices. April retail sales recorded their biggest increase in a year, suggesting the economy is regaining momentum, and U.S. consumer sentiment rose to the highest levels since June last year. Nickel stocks fell 1,674 tonnes to 412,344 tonnes. In a move centred on Vlissingen, cancelled warrants dropped 4,116 tonnes to 120,720 tonnes. The cash/May date is looking tight at a small contango of just $1. Investors have been worried about reports that many Chinese smelters were reversing production cutbacks after prices rebounded, which would add to a global surplus. U.S. retail sales jumped 1.3 percent last month, the largest gain since March 2015 and a bigger rise than the 0.8 percent expected. The U.S. Census Bureau said retail sales last month jumped by 1.3%, above consensus expectations of 0.9%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in March. The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center said its Consumer Sentiment Index soared nearly seven points in its midMay flash reading to 95.8, significantly above consensus expectations of 89.7. It came weeks after consumer sentiment slumped to 89.0 in the final April reading, dropping to its lowest level since last September. In the May reading, though, the expectations component surged nearly 10 points to 87.5, pulling up the general index

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MAJOR NEWS The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that the onset of southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast this year could be delayed by six days and that the rains would arrive around June 7. The forecast is with a model error of plusminus four days. The normal onset date of the south-west monsoon is June 1, which marks the start of its four-month journey over the Indian sub-continent. Although the onset of monsoon is forecast to be delayed, its overall impact on the progress and performance is difficult to predict as of now. IMD is sticking to its forecast of “above normal” rains in 2016. IMD’s forecast of monsoon onset issued from 2005 to 2015 has proved to be correct in all years (with the error margin of plus or minus four days), except in 2015. Delay in monsoon onset is not an unusual phenomenon, said IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore. He, however, added there would be some relief to south Indian states from the intense heat as there could be some rainfall in the coming days USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.70 million tons, up 58 percent from last year. The increase is based on the assumption of normal yields. Yield is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, up nearly 50 percent from last year and up 5.0 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 12.0 million hectares, up 5.3 percent from last year. Poor growing conditions in 2015/16 resulted in historic low yields in the soybean producing areas. The summer monsoon ended a month earlier than normal for the majority of the soybean area and rainfall throughout the growing season was characterized as uneven and sporadic. Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, experienced excessive rainfall and pest issues throughout the growing season which resulted in significant crop losses. However, dry weather in Maharashtra and Rajasthan caused crop losses in these districts.

Chinese soybean imports surged 33 percent higher in April from a year ago, setting a monthly record, amid strong demand for soymeal and soyoil. Iron ore imports also climbed last month on a recovery in steel production in the second quarter.

China imported 7.07 million tonnes of soybeans in April, up 15.9 percent compared to the previous month, preliminary figures issued by the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday. This is a record for April imports. March imports

were also a monthly record and soybean imports have surged in 2016 on rising demand for soy-meal for hog farms in China.

For the first four months of the year, imports have climbed 11.4 percent from a year ago to 23.33 million tonnes.

✍ Chana Chana futures gain in Friday due to expectation of tight supplies in coming months. The trend is still positive on anticipation of limited supplies amid lower production and expensive imports. Chana futures for Jun delivery closed 1.49% down to settle at Rs 5,792 per quintal. In the third advance estimates (May 2016), chana production is revised downwards to 7.5 mt from 8 mt forecasted in 2nd estimate (Feb 2016). Country imported over 79,000 lt of chana in Feb 2016 higher than 38,000 tones imports last year in Feb. India has imported 9.93 lt of Chana until February in the current financial year (Apr 2015-Feb 2016).

To control the prices, centre has asked states to impose stock holding limits for traders on all varieties of pulses in order to curb hoarding. To control speculation in pulses futures, agri-commodity bourse NCDEX hiked the cash margin to 45% on chana (gram) buyers and 10% on sellers.

The pulses issue was raised by Maharashtra's Food and Civil Supplies Minister Girish Bapat in a meeting with Union Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan. Import of pulses rose 26 per cent to 5.79 million tonnes (mt) last financial year to meet rising domestic demand, Parliament was informed. India had imported 4.58 mt during 2014-15. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.29%

✍ TURMERIC Turmeric on NCDEX settled down -1% at 8120 due to fall in demand at the spot market. Though, some losses were capped on poor arrivals of turmeric from the producing regions. At Sangli market sources reported arrivals at 9500 quintals, higher by 4500 quintals as against previous day. At Warangal market total arrivals are at 1500 bags, lower by 2000 bags as compared to previous day. New season crop has hit the markets and continue to peak in current month but majority of arrivals are of medium quality. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports for the period April 2015- Feb 2016 is pegged at 77,081 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 was 83,713 tonnes for the same period. Due to poor demand for turmeric, prices were down Rs. 9,000 a quintal. Turmeric growers are bringing very limited stock for sale due to poor upcountry demand. Farmers brought only 4,400 bags on Monday and 70 per cent of the stock was sold. Buyers also quoted decreased price. Further, due to the Tamil Nadu Assembly Election and implementation of model code of Conduct Rules by the Election authorities, buyers were reluctant to take huge money for buying the commodity. Of the total arrival of 902 bags, 544 were sold. At the Regulated Market Committee finger turmeric sold at Rs. 7,899 to Rs. 9,029 a quintal, root variety at Rs. 7,769 to Rs. 8,695 a quintal. Sangli market witnessed arrivals of 908 tonnes and prices traded at Rs.10500/quintal for Rajapuri variety. Nizamabad market remained closed for fourth day due to conflict between government and traders. NCDEX accredited warehouses have 4261 MT of valid stock and 259 MT of stock in process as on 11th May 2016. ✍ SOYABEAN CBOT soybean futures fell on Friday on profit-taking following this week's surge in the most-active contract to a 21-month high. Moreover, slow export demand too weighs on price. The soybean sales were down considerably from the previous week with old-crop business off 74% and new-crop sales of 253,506 bushels down sharply from last week’s 15.8 million. According to the WASDE report, U.S soybean production for 2016/17 is projected at 103.4 mt, down 0.35 mt from the previous year on lower harvested area and yields. US Soybean exports are forecast at 51.3 mt, up 3.95 mt from the revised 2015/16 projection.

However, global soybean production in 2016/17 is forecast to rise to a record 324 mt Soybean Jun’16 contract closed 1.24% down to settle at Rs. 4,987 per quintal. USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.70 mt, up 58% from last year. The increase is based on the assumption of normal yields. In 2015-16, SOPA forecast production at 69.29 lt but government in third estimate forecasts 89.2 lt.

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