Commodity report by ways2capital 01 dec 2014

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-2014

581

579

577

575

573

571

569

567

565

SYBEANIDR

19-12-2014

3340

3320

3300

3280

3260

3240

3220

3200

3180

RMSEED

19-12-2014

3990

3970

3950

3930

3910

3890

3870

3850

3830

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-2014

12650

12500 12400

12300

12200 12100 12000 11900 11800

DHANIYA

19-12-2014

13700

13600 13500

13400

13200 13000 12900 12800 12700

CASTORSEED

19-12-2014

4500

4480

4460

4440

4420

4000

3980

3960

3940

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-12-2014

592

588

584

579

575

571

568

564

560

SYBEANIDR

19-12-2014

3390

3350

3310

3280

3240

3200

3160

3120

3080

RMSEED

19-12-2014

4060

4030

4000

3980

3940

3900

3870

3840

3810

JEERAUNJHA

19-12-2014

13000

12800 12700

12500

12300 12100 11900 11700 11500

DHANIYA

19-12-2014

14300

14100 13900

13700

13500 13200 13000 12800 12600

CASTORSEED

19-12-2014

5050

5020

4960

4930

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4990

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4900

4870

4840

4810

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-11-2014 128

127

126

125

124

123

122

121

120

COPPER

28-11-2014 408

406

404

402

400

398

396

394

392

CRUDE OIL

19-11-2014 4170

4150

4130

4110

4090

4070

4050

4030

4020

GOLD

05-12-2014 26000

25900

25800

25700

25600

25500

25400

25300

25100

LEAD

28-11-2014 130

129

128

127

126

125

124

123

122

NATURAL GAS 24-11-2014 260

258

256

254

252

250

248

246

244

NICKEL

1030

1010

990

970

950

930

910

890

28-11-2014 1050

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-11-2014 134

132

130

128

126

124

122

120

118

COPPER

28-11-2014 416

413

410

407

404

400

397

394

391

CRUDE OIL

19-11-2014 4260

4220

4180

4140

4100

4060

4020

3980

3940

GOLD

05-12-2014 26500

26200

25900

25700

25500

25200

25000

24800 24600

LEAD

28-11-2014 133

131

129

127

125

123

121

119

117

NATURAL GAS

24-11-2014 265

262

258

255

251

248

244

240

236

NICKEL

28-11-2014 1110

1080

1040

1010

970

940

900

860

820

SILVER

05-12-2014 33600

33300

33000

32700

32300

32000

31700

31400 31100

ZINC

28-11-2014 145

142

139

136

133

130

127

123

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120

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� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Thursday that OPEC will not cut its oil output. "That is right," Naimi told reporters in response to a question on whether OPEC had decided not to cut oil supplies. He was speaking after a five hour meeting of the producer group broke up.

Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonious to compare with other European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October.

(Source: Reuters)

PRECIOUS METALS Gold eased on Thursday, hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, strength in the dollar and fresh outflows from bullion-backed funds, with traders cautious ahead of this weekend's Swiss referendum on central bank bullion assets.

News that oil cartel OPEC had opted not to cut output in the face of falling prices knocked benchmark Brent crude oil futures more than 4 percent to their lowest in four years.

Swiss voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide a motion that would oblige the Swiss National Bank to hold 20 percent of its reserves in bullion, repatriate gold from overseas, and undertake to make no gold sales.

If a 'yes' vote is passed, the Swiss central bank would have to buy about 1,500 tonnes of gold over the next few years, analysts say.

Investment interest in gold has suffered this year from expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy before other central banks.

Higher U.S. interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and would also benefit the dollar, in which the metal is priced Silver was down 1 percent at $16.30 an ounce.

Annual inflation in Europe's largest economy fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in November, suggesting the risk of deflation in the wider euro zone has not yet abated.

Preliminary figures from Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonized to compare with other European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October,

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undershooting a consensus forecast of 0.6 percent. On the month, the cost of living was unchanged using this measure.

BASE METAL Copper prices slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a strong dollar, although further falls were capped by support from monetary easing in top consumer China and an upturn in economic sentiment in Europe while a strong dollar capped gains.

Putting pressure on prices, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, making commodities priced in the U.S. unit more expensive for holders of other currencies.

China's central bank refrained from draining funds from the money market on Thursday, the first time it had held off from open market operations in four months.

Also supporting the market was data showing morale in the euro zone rose for the second straight month in November and Germany's jobless rate hit a record low, offering tentative signs the bloc is avoiding outright stagnation.

ENERGY Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output despite a huge oversupply in world markets.

Asked whether the oil producer group had decided not to reduce production, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters: "That is right."

Oil prices have fallen by more than a third since June as increasing production in North America from shale oil has overwhelmed demand at a time of sluggish global economic growth.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had been discussing at their meeting in Vienna whether to agree a production cut in an attempt to re balance the global oil market.

Crude prices have been falling all week as traders and analysts scaled back expectations of an OPEC production cut, but the sharp dive after Thursday's meeting showed the decision was not fully priced in.

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U.S. natural gas prices plunged sharply in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, as updated weather forecasting models for the first week of December pointed to a return to mild weather, prompting investors to bet that utilities and homes will burn less natural gas as demand for heating falls.

Forecasts for milder temperatures to settle in across much of the U.S. in early December after a blast of cold air exits weighed heavily on prices.

Bearish speculators are betting on the mild weather to dampen demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption

LME INVENTORIES LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminium

Nickel

Current Stock

161950

217900

669075

4332400

401850

Change

-175

-25

2725

-10025

1854

% Change

-0.11%

-0.01%

0.41%

-0.23%

0.46%

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS JEERA Jeera found some moderate sup-port at near the 12000 levels for Dec contract even as lack of strong trading activities kept short term market sentiments slight weak. Some more dips in the short term not ruled out. Falling stocks and higher temperatures in growing areas and improved Web: www.ways2capital.com

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Export demand (aided by a firm Dollar vs Re) supported prices. A cool temperature would be need-ed for next few weeks for the crop to grow satisfactorily. The tempera-tures are a bit on the higher side as of now in Gujarat — as per market sources. This is creating apprehen-sions of likelihood fall in productivity The sowing progress in coming weeks would be important and determine the near term trend for the commodity. An expected pick up in sowing area could prevent too strong recovery for the commodity.

Rains earlier this year in Gujarat and Rajasthan have improved moisture content of the soil and this can have a beneficial impact on the sowing of new crop that has started. However a cool climate would be needed for better crop productivity. Effect of Dollar vs Re would be important in medium term when exports pick up. But till that hap-pens some more dips not ruled out .Good quality produce have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t.

International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary export-er for this commodity as of now. Jeera production in India is ex-pected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each in 2014, from 4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favourable weather conditions.

CHANA Chana traded with very high volatili-ty as the initial fall in rates was followed by short covering by end of the day. With prices having fallen a lot over last 2-3 days, demand picked up in the mandis. However weakness in the International markets kept pressure in the Indian market sentiments also—preventing any strong recovery. Bearish news in International mar-kets affected the market sentiments adversely. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. On the other hand, reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15 —down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield.

In Indian markets, reports of lower sowing due to prevailing low rates, good demand from millers and Govt agencies and a rise in MSP from Rs 3100/Q to Rs 3175/Q had supported prices. Pulses sowing falls 5.5% in Raja-sthan. As per Govt figures, Chana was sown in 11.23 ha till 17 Nov in the state, while last year’s figure till 13 Nov was 11.93 lakh ha. Though total Web: www.ways2capital.com

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pulses farming till 17 Novem-ber has covered near 65% of its acreage, but it is around 5.5% less than previous year’s data As per Ministry of Agriculture, rabi pulses 2014-15 coverage till Nov 21 is down by 11% to 80.74 lakh Ha as compared with last year’s area coverage of 91.19 lakh hectare during the corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down to 54.61 Lakh Ha. against 64.76 lakh ha. in same correspond-ing week during last year. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14. Decline in area under Tur and Moong has also affected production of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes as against their production of 6.02 million tonnes during Kharif 2013-14. Tur production estimated at 2.74 million tonnes and Urad at 1.15 million tonnes.

SOYABEAN Higher production reports in the International markets kept trend slight weak for Soybean even as good demand in the Indian market limited the fall.

Improved International production forecasts had been keeping senti-ments weak there. Traders expect downtrend to be limited however as domestic demand is expected to improve in coming weeks for the good quality produce. Soybeans rebounded from the lowest price in more than a week after a government report showed increasing demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s top grower.

Soybeans inspected for export jumped 25% to a record 3.113 million metric tons for week ended Nov 13, with more than 78% headed to China, the biggest consumer, as per USDA. Demand from domestic processors in October topped analyst estimates. U.S. farmers are finalizing a record soybean harvest, with production seen rising to 107.7 million tons from 91.4 million tons, as per USDA. Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1 percent above the October forecast. U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20 million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October.

Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean meal exports.

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REFI. SOYA Ref Soy Oil traded with high volatili-ty as overall market sentiments remained slight positive but prices continued to find strong psychologi-cal Resistance at the 600 level. India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68 million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors' Association (SEA).

India’s 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in 2012/14 season. Palm oil purchases were slightly lower at 7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last season. Sunflower oil imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13.

Reports on apprehensions of India considering raising import taxes on crude and refined vegetable oils to protect local farmers and the refin-ing industry kept trend firm in Indian markets In order to improve realizations for farmers and to bring in transparency in soybean selling, the MP govern-ment has introduced sample-based auction for the commodity. The pilot project will be implemented at Ujjain, one of the biggest mandis (wholesale agricultural markets) in Madhya Pradesh, and once the new system is found to be successful, it will be extended to 10 other mandis. The sample-based auction will not only save post-harvest losses, but also encourage farmers to produce fair average quality commodities that ensure better return on their yield. Madhya Pradesh has been the biggest producer of soybean. World production of eight vegetable oils is expected to climb to 168.4 million tons from 165.1 million tons, Oil World said. Ending stocks are forecast to drop to 22 million tons at the end of September 2015 from 22.6 million tons a year earlier. Output of eight oilseed meals may jump to 294 million tons from 283.8 million tons, with ending stocks seen rising to 9.6 million tons from 9 million tons.

RM SEED A fall in other Oil complex kept trend weak for RMSeed as more corrections were noted after the recent strong recovery in rates. Traders however anticipate further fall may be limited in the coming weeks as demand expected to rise.

European Union rapeseed output rose to 22.5 million tons this year from 20.9 million tons,data from the 28-nation bloc show. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Kazakhstan As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 17th Nov Web: www.ways2capital.com

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was 24.24 lakh ha vs 25.16 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temper-ature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature.

Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 30thOct was reportedly nil while it was 2 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during Oct. MP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 30th Oct. was 3.80 lakh ha while it was nil in 2013-14. Due to good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 30th Oct was 4.91 lakh ha while it was nil in 2013-14 during this period. As fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had sown Mustard early in UP.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.

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