Commodity report by ways2capital 02 sep 2014

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-SEPT-14 640

633

626

623

619

616

612

605

598

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

3533

3470

3407

3385

3344

3320

3280

3220

3155

RMSEED

19-SEPT-14 3790

3708

3625

3595

3542

3510

3460

3375

3293

JEERAUNJHA

19-SEPT-14 11505

11395 11285

11240

11175 11130 11065 10955 10845

DHANIYA

19-SEPT-14 12296

12156 12016

11948

11876 11808 11736 11596 11456

CASTORSEED

19-SEPT-14 4423

4345

4265

4225

4185

4145

4105

4023

3943

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

19-SEPT-14 680

659

638

629

617

608

596

575

554

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

3620

3530

3440

3401

3353

3312

3264

3175

3086

RMSEED

19-SEPT-14 3867

3659

3650

3610

3540

3500

3435

3327

3210

JEERAUNJHA

19-SEPT-14 11858

11618 11378

11286

11138 11046 10898 10658 10418

DHANIYA

19-SEPT-14 12918

12568 12218

12049

11868 11699 11518 11168

10818

CASTORSEED

19-SEPT-14 4495

4398

4235

4175

3853

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4281

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4128

4067

3960

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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

30-SEPT-14 132.65

130.75

128.85

128.15

126.95

126.30

125.05

123.20

121.25

COPPER

28-NOV-14 442

434

426

421

419

414

411

403

395

CRUDE OIL

19-SEPT-14 6003

5914

5825

5795

5736

5706

5647

5558

5469

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29085

28732

28375

28225

28025

27870

27670

27316

26962

LEAD 30-SEPT-14 139.75 .

NATURAL GAS 25-SEPT-14 264

138.60

137.50

136.90

136.30

135.70

135.10

133.95

132.90

258

251

248

245

241

238

232

225

NICKEL

1152

1141

1135

1130

1124

1119

1108

1091

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

30-SEPT-14 1165

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

30-SEPT-14 137.35

133.65

130.05

128.75

126.40 125.10

122.75

119.10 115.50

COPPER

28-NOV-14 467

452

436

426

421

411

406

390

374

CRUDE OIL

19-SEPT-14 6035

5934

5833

5799

5732

5697

5631

5530

5429

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29375

28915

28450

28260

27985

27795

27525

27060 26595

LEAD

30-SEPT-14 143

140

138

137

136

135

133

131

129

NATURAL GAS

25-SEPT-14 291

274

258

251

241

234

225

208

192

NICKEL

30-SEPT-14 1192

1172

1154

1141

1132

1121

1112

1092

1072

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

44636

43507

42956

42378

41827

41249

40120 38991

ZINC

30-SEPT-14 148

146

144

143

142

141

140

138

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MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS LME Copper stocks jumped by 0.8 percent on Tuesday.

Total inflow in Indian equities and debt markets $29.79 bn till date.

U.S. crude stocks declined by 2.1 million barrels last week.

German Import Prices dropped by 0.4 percent in the last month.

Economic data - Germany Unemployment rate, CPI; Euro-zone- Confidence Numbers (Economic, Industrial, Consumer and Service), US - Jobless claims, Q2 revised GDP, Personal Consumption and Pending Home Sales.

SOURCES : Reuters Indian Currency - The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of upbeat market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.

Further, estimates of marginal plunge in economic growth in US exerted downside pressure on the currency.

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally in yesterday’s trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets. The total inflow in the both the markets accounted to around $29.79 billion till date in the current year. Upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a positive factor.

✍ PRECIOUS METALS In the month of August, gold prices have already declined by more than 2% and looks like the trend may remain bearish. Gold holdings at the SPDR gold trust, the world’s largest ETF stay near the 800 MT, almost flat for past many weeks. In the meanwhile, global equities trade higher with gains of more than 1% in a single week is further pulling gold prices lower and likely that the same trend may continue in the next week. Another major factor that is pulling gold lower is the anticipated cues from Jackson Hole economic symposium which is expected to focus on an important economic issue that faces the US and world economies. We believe looking at the recent economic development, especially the economic data coming in better than expected from the US, it might have incessant negative pressure on gold prices. Besides, the euro and gold which generally shaped by the USD performance are likely to move along and any further decline in the euro currency or strong appreciation in the USD would weaken gold prices. Looking at the above scenario, the commodity may remain depressed in the near term wherein we suggest selling from higher levels.

Gold once again had a very shallow day of trade with the commodity trading in a small range for most part of the day before closing 0.15% lower to $1283 per ounce mark for active December expiry at Comex.

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In India, moderate disconnect continued as local MCX gold prices for October expiry closed lower by 0.4% to Rs 27780 per 10 /Gms. It is likely that Bullion may open marginally positive today, as they regain some of the additional lost ground yesterday meanwhile Gold Comex too trades marginally higher in early Asian trade.

� BASE METALS LME Copper prices slipped by 0.5 percent on 27 Aug Trading session, after a report showed profit growth at industrial companies in China slowed to 13.5 percent in July from 17.9 percent in June, the fastest rate in seven months. Also, weak German Consumer Climate data coupled with 0.8 percent gain in inventories exerted downside pressure on prices.

However, expectations of prompt supportive action from Beijing, with officials stepping in to ensure the economy achieved its 7.5% annual growth target restricted sharp fall. The red metal touched an intra day low of $6994/tonne on Wednesday.

On the MCX, red metal prices plunged by 0.7 percent and touched an intra day low of Rs.421.75/kg before closing at Rs.422.9/kg on Wednesday.

� ENERGY Natural gas prices on the NYMEX gained by around 1 percent on bargain buying at lower levels while MCX futures gained by around 1.09 percent and closed at Rs.241.40/Mmbtu. EIA Natural gas inventories due tonight is expected to show a surplus of 78Bcf of gas.

Oil prices declined on both sides of the Atlantic as expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, cooling prices. Oil futures on both sides of the Atlantic Basin are on track to post a second monthly decline.

Hopes that the presidents of Russia and Ukraine could reach a ceasefire deal dimmed after Ukraine accused Russia of launching a new military incursion across its eastern border on Wednesday. U.S. crude stocks fell 2.1 million barrels last week, more than expected, but Cushing inventories rose 508,000 barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. On the MCX, crude prices declined by around 0.4 percent in line with weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.5675/bbl.

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NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ CHANA Chana continued to trade weak due to lack of demand .The domestic demand has risen in the mandis but that got adversely affected at the higher levels as traders waited for some dips before initiating fresh demand in the mandis. amid rains in Central and North-West India supporting the Kharif Pulses crop prospects kept overall trend weak.

The sowing for Kharif Pulses has picked up over last few weeks and that had been preventing strong uptrend for Chana rates despite improved demand in mandis. Repeated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for essential Food items are also keeping the uptrend limited.

As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops as on 22nd August, kharif sowing area stood at 935.06 lakh hectare. It is reported that pulses has been sown in 92.62 lakh ha vs 99.39 lakh ha same time last year.

Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013-14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in Tur(3.38 MT), Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments. ✍ RM SEED RM seed mandis could not sustain the highs as buyers were at bay coupled with bearish spillover effect. However, the supplies are limited and slight demand for meal from exporters will pull up the markets in the coming weeks. The arrivals remained in the range of 55,000 – 65,000 bags of 85Kg each.

As per Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, the imports of Rape oil are steadily on the rise and have significantly increased by more than 11 times from 7,943 MT to 103,003 MT. Though oil meal exports dipped for the third consecutive month due to rise in soybean prices, but the rapeseed meal has increased 53 per cent to 408,410 tonnes from 267,461 tonnes in last four months.

Global production of rapeseed and canola will decline to 68.7 million tons from 69.7 million tons as. The harvest in Canada, the top export-er, is expected to decrease 20 percent from the prior year to 14.4 million tons. EU output will reach a record 23.54 million tons from 21.25 million tons a year earlier amid increasing harvests in Germany, France, Poland and the U.K. Rapeseed prices in EU dropped due to spillover weakness from soybeans.

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✍ SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Soy oil prices on Wednesday remained weak on poor buying sentiments in local mandis which picked up enough downward sup-port from the bearish international market.

Soybean exports from the U.S. are set to accelerate in the next few months as farmers harvest the biggest crop. U.S. soybean exports will climb to a record 46.3 million metric tons in the 2014-15 marketing season that starts Sept. 1 from 44.65 million tons a year earlier. Global soybean output will total 306.7 million tons. US soybean crop is likely to be disposed of quickly in the first four to six months of the new season as Brazil’s stocks are low. Soybean prices have dropped 21 percent this year as beneficial U.S. growing weather boosted oilseed and grain development. Oil World estimates U.S. soybean production at 103.85 million tons in 2014-15, in line with USDA forecast and 13 percent bigger than a year earlier.

Soybean mandis did open on a steady note with some buying interest shown by crushers.

However, the prices will remain under pressure as there has been some good sowing progress coupled with bearish US markets which has hit a four years levels due to record crop outlook on good weather forecasts.

As per IMD the deficiency rainfall deficiency remained at 18% as on 27th Aug, from south west monsoon. However, increase in rainfall activity can be seen in during the later part of the week.

As per Solvent Extractors Association of India the total export of oil meals during April-July 2014 is at 721,577 tons compared to 1,038,819 tons i.e. down by 31%. In July 2014 export of oil meals stood at 115,094 tons com-pared to 182,133 tons in July 2013 i.e. down by 37%.

Export of soybean meal greatly reduced in last 3 months due to high cost of soybean in local market lead to total disparity for soybean meal in international market.

Global production of oil seeds including soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower will reach a record 507.2 million metric tons, 18.1 million tons more than the previous all-time high last year as per Oil world. The stockpiles are likely to remain around 99.6 million tons at the end of 201415, 18 percent more than a year earlier. The most outstanding increase in oil seed production is set to occur in the U.S.A., where excellent weather conditions are seen resulting in record yields per hectare not only in soybeans but also corn. A record oil seed crop has also been grown in the European Union this year.

Soybean production globally may rise to 306.7 million tons, up from 284.6 million tons in the prior season, with the U.S. crop, the world’s biggest, accounting for 103.85 million tons.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.

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