Commodity report by ways2capital 05 aug 2014

Page 1

COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-14 690.30

686.30 682.40 680.10

678.90 676.20 674.50 670.30 666.10

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

3882

3810

3738

3704

3666

3632

3594

3522

3450

RMSEED

20-AUG-14 3710

3670

3630

3610

3590

3570

3550

3510

3470

JEERAUNJHA

20-AUG-14 11668

11528 11388

11316

11248 11176 11108 10967 10828

DHANIYA

20-AUG-14 12453

12256 12057

11976

11851 11718 11659 11457 11253

CASTORSEED

20-AUG-14 4436

4381

4392

4271

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-14 690.30

686.30 682.40 680.10

678.90 676.20 674.50 670.30 666.10

R3

PP

4326

PP

S1

4237

S2

4216

S3

4162

S4

4106

NEDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R2

R1

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-14 712.10

701.50 690.20 684.60

679.50 672.15 668.90 657.40 646.80

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

4063

3928

3794

3701

3658

3566

3523

3388

3253

RMSEED

20-AUG-14 3752

3700

3648

3623

3596

3571

3540

3492

3440

JEERAUNJHA

20-AUG-14 12615

12170 11725

11485

11280 11040 10835 10390 9945

DHANIYA

20-AUG-14 12456

12256 12054

11983

11854 11784 11659 11457 11250

CASTORSEED

20-AUG-14 4805

4611

4338

4223

4417

S1

4144

S2

4029

S3

S4

3835

3642

MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

CRUDE OIL

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

19-AUG-14 6170

6140

6038

6006

5972

5940

5906

5840

5774

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29266

28886

28506

28353

28126

27973

27446

27366

26986

LEAD

28-AUG-14 141.75

139.725 137.75

137.20

135.75

135

133.75

131.75 129.75

246.20

237.60

234.10

231.90

228.50

222.20 226.40

NATURALGAS 26-AUG-14 252.30

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NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1182

1164

1146

1136

1128

1118

1110

1092

1074

SILVER

05-SEP-14 45815

45375

44935

44681

44495

44241

44055

43615

43175

ZINC

28-AUG-14 149.45

147.45

145.45

144.35

143.45

142.35

141.4

139.45 137.45

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

S3

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14

132.55

128.50 124.50

122.90

120.50

118.90

116.60 112.60 108.50

COPPER

29-AUG-14

470

458

446

440

434

428

422

410

398

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14

6653

6442

6231

6102

6020

5891

5809

5598

5387

GOLD

03-OCT-14

29426

28986

28546

28373

28106

27935

27666

27226 26786

LEAD

28-AUG-14

150

145

140

138

135

133

130

124

119

NATURALGAS 26-AUG-14

273

260

245

239

231

225

217

203

189

NICKEL

28-AUG-14

1256

1214

1172

1149

1130

1107

1088

1046

1004

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

46635

45900

45165

44796

44430

44061

43695

42960 42225

ZINC

28-AUG-14

158

153

148

145

143

140

138

133

MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Important News •

Euro Zone Unemployment Rate slipped to 11.5 percent in June.

Utilities added 88 BCF of Natural gas in storage last week.

US Unemployment Claims rose to 302,000 for the w/e on 25th Jul’14.

German Retail Sales grew by 1.3 percent in the month of June.

LME Copper inventories consistently declines for 7 days.

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 points to 51.7-mark in July.

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S4

128


US Data US Economy Grows 4% In Second Quarter : Real gross domestic product of United States increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis* In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised)*The second estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment,state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment* Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP increased. SOURCES : Commodity Insights

Indian Currency The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note and depreciated to three month low around 0.8 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of huge dollar demand from state run banks for corporate and defense related payments. Further, weak domestic market sentiments and strength in the DX after the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday continued with downside movement in the currency. Strong inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt markets failed to provide respite to fall in the currency. Also, investors remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting on 5th Aug’14 which limited gains in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra day low of 60.56 and closed at 60.55 on Thursday.

Precious Metals  Comex Gold prices ended modestly lower on Wednesday, pressured by a much strongerthan expected U.S. gross domestic product report and by a rising U.S. dollar index.  December silver futures prices ended marginally higher Wednesday. The Dollar Index surged higher on Wednesday after data showed that second-quarter U.S. Gross domestic product report was released Wednesday morning and came in at up 4.0%.  FOMC minutes showed that the Committee will continue to taper its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by slicing another $10 billion per month from the program, now totaling $25 billion a month.  Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, showed net longs in gold futures totaled 136,120 contracts, up 3.1% from net longs of 131,971 in the preceding week. Net silver longs totaled 46,221 contracts as of last week, down slightly from net longs of 46,795 contracts in the preceding week.  Indian Gold and Silver prices moved higher on Wednesday.  Exchange deliverable stock position for Gold and Silver as on 30th July 2014 on MCX: -

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45.572 Kg and 7388.0553 Kg respectively.

Base Metals  Base metals complex ended mixed on Wednesday, with Copper, Lead and Zinc ended lower, while Aluminum and Nickel ended higher.  Copper prices were influenced after China’s refined copper output increased 8,121 MT on the month in June to 623,000 MT.  Participants will look ahead to key data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two largest economies.  Japanese output and shipments of rolled copper and brass shot up in the first six months of this year on higher domestic demand.  Total production in the first half came to 409,894 MT, an 8.8% rise on the 376,789 MT produced in the corresponding period a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Economy.  According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 44,107 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 48,994 contracts in the preceding week.  Indian Base metal complex moved higher on Wednesday But moving in volatile note on Friday.

Energy WTI crude oil declined by around 1.5 percent on Thursday hitting the lowest level since March on news of a potentially lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery, while Brent also slipped amid signs of robust OPEC oil production. On the MCX crude prices declined by 1.1 percent taking weak cues from international markets and closed at Rs.6006/bbl.

Outlook Oil prices had been hitting multi-month highs in June on world political tensions. However, ample supplies of crude by the OPEC, rising supplies in the US, build up of gasoline inventories in the US and lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery are all indications that crude prices will correct further trading session.. Meanwhile, In Europe, traders are watching how sanctions will affect oil exports from Russia. On the MCX, crude oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note taking cues from weak international markets

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After falling last week for the sixth consecutive week, in the longest stretch of weekly declines in more than four years, natural gas prices on the NYMEX gained by more than 2.5 percent yesterday. Utilities added 88 BCF of gas in storage versus an expectation of 93 BCF which acted as a boost for prices. On the MCX, gas prices gained by around 3.8 percent taking strong cues from international markets and closed at Rs.237.60/MMBtu.

NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CHANA Chana rates fell yet again as overall market sentiments remained weak for Pulses. With Monsoon revival expected to continue this week, any uptrend got limited for the commodity. However a rise in Festive season demand could support the prices . Traders however anticipate prices to be at low levels and expect demand to start rising over the next few weeks. An already weak Monsoon seen so far has been supporting the overall market sentiment for the commodity. As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 345.60 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 18.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 127.36 lakh ha, pulses in 21.58 lakh ha, coarse cereals in 48.43 lakh ha, and oilseeds in 38.07 lakh ha. The planting of sugarcane and cotton is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 46.09 lakh ha and cotton in 56.00 lakh ha as on today. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments In the first nine months of fiscal 2013-14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 mt; for the whole year, imports are projected at 2.6 mt, sharply down from 3.8 mt last year, according to Commerce Ministry data.

SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Refined soy oil did open on a weak note on poor buying support amid steady supplies but prices pulled up on strong dollar and technical short covering. The soy oil remained under pressure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov - Oct).

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Soybean prices across mandis opened weak on poor offtake from crushers. The sowing progress in western parts of India is likely to restrict the upward movement. The international markets firmed up as demand for the limited crop is on the rise. As per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseed plant-ing have improved from previous week's 38.1 lakh hectare to 107.8, compared but lower from last year’s figure of 153.1 lakh hectares. Soy-bean, which is one of the key oilseed crops has been planted over 77 lakh hectares till last week compared with 110 lakh hectares in the previous year. As per IMD, the South-West Monsoon continue to rain actively in Soybean growing areas. The Monsoon deficit too has reduced significantly from to 24% as on 29th July and the worst effected Central India figures have come down to around 20 %. The U.S. soybean crop is in the best shape for this time of year since 1994 as mild Midwest temperatures helped boost the outlook for yields. U.S. soybean production will surge to an all-time high in the year that starts Sept. 1, and corn output will be the second-largest on recordas per USDA. Soybean yields on the first day of the tour averaged 52.5 bushels per acre, 25 percent higher than last year. While mild tempera-tures will aid crops, some of the Midwest may be drier than normal, though “perhaps not dry enough for a substantial yield threat.

JEERA (CUMIN SEED) Jeera futures declined for the third straight session on Thursday on weak demand as buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks also added to the downside pressure and settled 0.84% lower. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Arrivals, production and Exports Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 3,000 bags on Thursday. (Source: Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013­14 is expected around 45­50 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40­45 lakh bags last year.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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