✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
652
650
648
646
643
640
638
636
634
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3440
3420
3400
3380
3360
3340
3320
3300
3280
RMSEED
20-02-2014
4320
4300
4280
4260
4240
4210
4190
4170
4150
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
15990
15890 15790
15690
15590 15490 15390 15290 15190
CHANA
20-02-2014
3560
3540
3520
3500
3480
3450
3430
3410
3390
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
5100
5080
5060
5040
5000
4970
4950
4930
4910
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
660
656
652
648
644
640
636
632
628
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3520
3480
3440
3400
3360
3320
3180
3140
3100
RMSEED
20-02-2014
4370
4330
4300
4280
4240
4200
4160
4120
4080
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
16300
16100 15900
15700
15500 15300 15100 14900 14700
CHANA
20-02-2014
3620
3580
3540
3500
3460
3420
3380
3340
3300
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
5150
5100
5050
5000
4950
4900
4850
4800
4750
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015 119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
COPPER
27-02-2015 404
402
400
398
396
394
392
390
388
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3450
3430
3410
3390
3370
3350
3330
3310
3290
GOLD
05-02-2015 27400
27300
27200
27100
27000
26800
26700
26600
26500
LEAD
30-01-2015 121
120
119
118
117
115
114
113
112
NATURAL GAS 27-01-2015 204
203
202
201
200
199
198
197
196
NICKEL
30-01-2015 975
950
930
910
880
860
840
820
800
SILVER
05-03-2015 37400
37200
37000
36800
36600
36400
36200
36000
35800
ZINC
30-01-2015 143
142
141
140
139
138
137
136
135
S2
S3
S4
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015
123
121
COPPER
27-02-2015
410
406
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015
3520
GOLD
05-02-2015 27900
LEAD
30-01-2015
124
122
NATURAL GAS
27-01-2015
208
206
NICKEL
30-01-2015
1050
SILVER
05-03-2015
ZINC
30-01-2015
R2 119
R1
PP
S1
117
115
113
111
109
107
402
399
396
393
390
387
384
3490
3460
3430
3400
3270
3240
3210
3180
27700
27500
27300
27100
26800
26600
26400
26200
118
116
114
112
110
108
204
202
200
198
196
194
192
1010
980
940
900
860
840
800
760
38100
37700
37300
37000
36600
36300
36000
35700
35400
147
145
143
141
139
137
135
133
131
120
� MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS US Unemployment Claims rose to 298,000 in the last week. Chicago PMI fell to 58.3-mark in December from 60.8 levels in November. Pending Home Sales gained 0.8 percent in November as compared to a decline of 1.2 percent in October. Activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, a private survey showed on Wednesday, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise easing moves by Beijing in the past two months. Crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 67,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.0 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a gain of 2.1 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.9 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.5 million barrel increase, the EIA data showed. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.
1. 1. 2. 3.
Major global markets remain closed yesterday on New Year’s Eve. LME Copper stocks jumped by a whopping 2.8 percent on Tuesday. US Unemployment Claims rose to 298,000 in the last week. Selling of the greenback by exporters supports Indian Rupee
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.4 percent on Wednesday owing to rise in risk aversion in the market sentiments that led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, mixed economic data restricted sharp upside. The currency touched an intra day high of 90.67 and closed at 90.65 on Wednesday. PRECIOUS METALS Spot silver prices declined by 3.7 percent and closed at $15.7/oz. The fall was in tandem with falling gold prices. Strength in the dollar index coupled with weakness in the base metals pack exerted downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, silver prices gained by 3.65 percent on Thursday and closed at Rs.36210/10 gms. Gold fell 1.5 percent on pressure from weak oil prices and gains in the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, and was poised to end 2014 down a slight 2 percent after falling below $1,200 an ounce.
The impact of a stronger dollar was partially offset by demand from investors worried about tensions in Russia and political uncertainty in Greece. Bullion was on track for a small fall this year after a turbulent 2013, when prices fell by a third following 12 years of gains. Gold's main driver in 2014 has been a buoyant dollar, which was poised to post its biggest yearly gain since 2005, and anticipated U.S. interest rate hikes may strengthen the greenback's appeal in the coming year. Higher rates weigh on non-interest-bearing bullion.
BASE METAL Copper was set to end 2014 with a loss of nearly 15 percent, its worst annual decline in three years, on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market next year just as Chinese economic growth shifts down another gear. Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were set to be exceeded only by lead - a market that was in surplus in the year to September - while nickel was poised to be the best performing metal with gains of 8 percent for the year thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban. Copper prices ended 2014 with a loss of 14 percent, their biggest annual decline in three years, on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market next year just as Chinese economic growth shifts down another gear. Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were matched by tin and exceeded only by lead - a market that was in surplus in the year to September - while nickel was the best-performing metal thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban. Year end adjustments to market positions helped copper bounce off 4-1/2-year lows of $6,230 a tonne earlier this week, but it resumed its decline on Wednesday, ending down 0.41 percent on the day at $6,299 a tonne. Weighing on the metal this year, the global copper market is expected to record a surplus of about 390,000 tonnes in 2015, according to an industry group. That would follow five straight years of deficit. Data on Wednesday showed activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.
ENERGY Oil prices fell on Wednesday to a 5-1/2-year low and ended with their second-biggest annual decline ever, down by half since June under pressure from a global glut of crude. Just before the close, Brent and U.S. oil futures bounced off session lows. But prices still settled at their lowest since May 2009. Weekly U.S. data showed crude oil stockpiles fell more than expected, but inventories at the oil hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, grew, keeping prices depressed.
Oil prices have collapsed this year as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries opted to maintain the same level of output despite a global glut caused by expanding U.S. shale output and diminished demand growth from China. U.S. crude closed with its second-largest annual decline on record. The biggest came in 2008, when prices collapsed in the wake of the financial crisis. The last round of OPEC output cuts eventually brought them off lows near $30 a barrel. In contrast, OPEC at a Nov. 27 meeting this year decided against cutting output. Despite its own forecasts of a growing surplus, the group opted to defend its market share against shale oil and other rival supply sources. Turmoil in Libya dented OPEC supply in December to a six-month low, a Reuters survey showed, although forecasts still point to a glut. U.S. natural gas prices ended the year down more than 30 percent for their worst performance since 2011 after unseasonably warm weather raised questions on whether gas in storage was excessive for the heating required in coming months. While weather forecasts from this week onward have turned cold, price rebounds have been restrained by worries about whether gas in storage was possibly higher than needed when cold weather peaks in January and February. Latest weekly consumption numbers for gas from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the Christmas week ended Dec. 26. A Reuters poll of analysts had predicted a 38-bcf draw.
LME INVENTORIES LME Inventories
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminium
Nickel
Current Stock
177025
221975
691600
4210275
413148
Change
4775
-25
-3300
-6575
444
% Change
2.77%
-0.01%
-0.47%
-0.16%
0.11%
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS JEERA Jeera traded with high volatility as the initial uptrend was followed by massive profit booking by end of the day. Rains in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat are creating a selling pressure as rains at this stage are good for the sown crop. Closure on many International markets too has adversely affected the export demand for the time being. Short term trend likely to show some more dips but as skies clear and exports rise next week, sentiments likely to firm up again as a fall in production this year keeps long term sentiments Bullish. As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area for Jeera crop is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till 17.11.2014, 60,900 ha have sown as compared to 74100 ha last year. The sowing area during the According to Gujarat government data releases on 29th Dec 14, Jeera recorded 42% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.4 lakh hac. Sowing of the spice has almost over both in Gujarat and Rajasthan reported lower acreage. The tight supply and good demand in spot market coupled with the slight expected delay of new crop due to late sowing support the prices during the period. Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey. .Jeera (cumin) exports have been 87,500 tonnes in the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of 25% from the corresponding period of the previous (Source: Spices Board) Current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan growing regions due to lower price as compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Total Jeera area is likely to go down by 25 -30% during the current period as per trader estimates. The latest report from Spice Board of India indicates a pickup in ex-ports during April-Sept 2014 period at 87500 tonnes (up from 70243 in April-Sept 2013) – a rise of 25% in Quantity and 2% in value (due to fall in rates during that time). The targeted Export for 2014-15 period is 1,00,000 tonnes. With Indian produce being of superior quality, they fetch a premium w.r.t. International market producing countries. Adverse reports from International producers would be beneficial for the Indian markets in the long term. The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too – which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amid adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term.
CHANA Rains in many parts of North-West and Central India keeps market sentiments weak on anticipations of that being good for the standing crop. Extending Duty-free import for Pulses till March 31 created a further selling pressure for Pulses complex. Profit booking at the higher levels amidst reports that Government may not be willing to impose 10% import duty on Pulses also kept trend weak. Domestic demand however likely to pick up again at the lower levels as overall market sentiments remain firm. Fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and lower International production prospects could support prices in medium to long term however. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield. Reports from Australia indicate a 22.5% fall in Pulses production and more than 30% fall in Chick Peas production in 2014-15 vs that in 2013-14. Latest report from AP Agri Dept indicate Rabi Pulses sowing down 6% from 6.43 lakh ha as on 24.12.2013 to 6.02 lakh ha as on 24.12.2014. Rajasthan Agri Dept for Rabi Pulses indicates sowing indicates area at 15.36 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014, vs 15.28 lakh ha as on 19.12.2013. MP Agri Dept indicates Rabi Pulses sowing at 35.81 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014 vs 42.44 lakh ha previous year—down by 15.6%. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Food grains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14.
SOYABEAN Rains in MP and Rajasthan keep sentiments down for the counter even as International markets remained closed. Overall weakness in International markets due to increased global production are likely to keep further pressure on the market sentiments. USDA raised its forecast for global production, and expects inventories to reach an all-time high. Bigger global grain and oilseed supplies have pushed world food costs to a 4-year low. Soybean futures are heading for second straight annual losses, the longest slides since 1999. The market analysts are of the opinion that even with record demand, the leftover supply of soybeans before next year’s harvest will be record large. Brazil’s government forecast agency Conab raised its outlook for the domestic crop to a record 9.58 crore tons. That’s bigger than
the USDA estimate for 9.4 crore tons. Expectation of fall in soymeal export from April 14 to March 15. Soymeal export likely to fall by 29 % to 20 lakh ton. Last year export 28 lakh ton Low export may pressurize the sentiments. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is project-ed at a record 312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels. Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the United States.
REFI. SOYA Moderate weakness was noted for Soy Oil as the higher levels recently touched from hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil were not sustainable. Profit booking was noted at the higher levels. Some more short term dips may be likely as International markets cool down. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%. Fall in International markets had so far kept pressure on the market sentiments while domestic markets traded firm. Rates however continue to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600 level. Recently, the customs duty on crude oil has been increased to 7.5 per cent from 2.5 per cent earlier, while the duty on refined edible oil has been raised to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, as per the notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs. In month of Nov 14, there is an increase of 700% import of Crude soybean oil to 121,097 tonnes as compared to last year. It is mainly due to high prices of soybean and lesser realization for oil and soybean meal in export market, resulted in lower crushing and availability of
domestic oil coupled with anticipated increase in import duty by the GOI. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest.With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since 2006/07. India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68 million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors' Association (SEA). India’s 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in 2012/13 season. Palm oil purchases were slightly lower at 7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last season. Sunflower oil imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13
RM SEED Rains in growing states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and UP kept trend weak for RMSeed as that is reportedly good for the sown crop. Short term some more dips may be there but overall sentiments likely to remain firm however as good demand for Mustard Oil continued. Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments. As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24 December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature. Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was reportedly 5.25 lakh ha while it was 5.47 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during Oct. MP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 6.46 lakh ha while it was 7.87 in 2013-14. Due to good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 11.42 lakh ha while it was 10.37 lakh ha
in 2013-14 during this period. As fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had sown Mustard early in UP. European Union rapeseed output rose to 22.5 million tons this year from 20.9 million tons,data from the 28-nation bloc show. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower fore-casts for Russia and Kazakhstan.
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