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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-AUG-14 682.10
671.50 660.10 653.20
649.80 644.50 638.30 627.90 616.50
SYBEANIDR
20-OCT-14
3972
3834
3695
3604
3558
3469
3420
3282
3144
RMSEED
20-AUG-14 3755
3662
3569
3509
3476
3416
3382
3290
3197
JEERAUNJHA
20-AUG-14 11650
11515 11380
11308
11245 11170 11110 10978 10845
DHANIYA
20-AUG-14 12475
12200 11934
11762
11660 11495 11394 11120 10850
CASTORSEED
20-AUG-14 4501
4436
4371
4338
4306
4275
4245
4178
4110
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-AUG-14 708
689
670
658
651
639
532
613
595
SYBEANIDR
20-OCT-14
4072
3904
3736
3626
3568
3458
3400
3232
3064
RMSEED
20-AUG-14 3864
3739
3614
3533
3489
3408
3364
3239
3114
JEERAUNJHA
20-AUG-14 11940
11720 11500
11375
11280 11155 11060 10840 10260
DHANIYA
20-AUG-14 14040
13305 12561
12088
11820 11348 11080 10340 9601
CASTORSEED
20-AUG-14 4661
4543
4365
4301
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4425
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4247
|
4189
4071
3953
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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
CRUDE OIL
19-AUG-14
6258
6128
5998
5912
5868
5782
5738
5608
GOLD
03-OCT-14
26456
29181
28906
28763
28631
28488
28356
28081 27806
LEAD . NATURALGAS
28-AUG-14
139.60
137.80
135.95
134.80
134.20 133.10 132.40 130.60 128.80
26-AUG-14
260.60
252.90
245.20
242.30
237.50 234.60 229.80 222.10 214.40
NICKEL
28-AUG-14
1179
1163
1147
1138
1131
1122
1115
1099
SILVER
5-SEPT-14
44576
44146
43716
43503
43286
43073
42856
42426 41996
ZINC
28-AUG-14
143.80
142.10
140.30
139.25
138.60 137.50 136.80 135.10 133.30
5478
1083
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
28-AUG-14 136
131
127
123
122
119
117
113
108
COPPER
29-AUG-14 473
455
438
427
421
409
404
386
369
CRUDE OIL
19-AUG-14 6525
6315
6105
5966
5895
5756
5685
5475
5265
GOLD
03-OCT-14 29840
29450
29060
28840
28670
28450
28280
27890 27500
LEAD
28-AUG-14 152
146
141
137
135
131
129
124
118
NATURAL GAS
26-AUG-14 281
267
253
246
239
232
225
211
197
NICKEL
28-AUG-14 1259
1219
1179
1154
1139
1114
1099
1059
1019
SILVER
5-SEPT-14 46410
45430
44450
43870
43470
42890
42490
41510 40530
ZINC
28-AUG-14 155
150
144
141
139
136
134
129
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123
MCX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS International News 1. European markets were trading on a positive note yesterday on better than forecast profit reports from utility major EON SE and Swiss Life Holding AG. Asian markets ended higher and the US stock futures are trading in the green. 2. China’s Industrial Production fell to 9 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June. UK’s Claimant Count Change fell by 33.6K in July as against a decline of 39.5K in June. Unemployment Rate fell to 6.4 percent in June from 6.5 percent in May. Euro Zone’s Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in June as against a plunge of 1.1 percent in May. 3. Talks to end a monthlong war between Israel and Gaza militants are "difficult", Palestinian delegates said, while Israeli officials said no progress had been made so far and fighting could soon resume. 4. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that while the situation in several producer countries was "more at risk than ever," supplies were ample and the Atlantic Basin was facing a glut. OPEC output hit a fivemonth high of 30.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in July with a 300,000bpd rise led by Saudi Arabia and Libya, the IEA said. 5. Production in Iraqi Kurdistan remains largely unaffected 6. U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine have not yet disrupted supply, but the IEA cautioned that the sanctions are expected to trim Russian demand. (SOURCES : Reuters) Precious Metals Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on signs that the standoff between Russia and Ukraine was hurting economic confidence in the euro zone economy. Analyst and investor morale in Germany, Europe's largest economy, plunged in August to its lowest level in more than a year and a half as the crisis in Ukraine took its toll, the ZEW monthly survey showed.
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While geopolitical tension has inspired some sporadic investment buying, gold has not enjoyed much physical demand. In top consuming region Asia, demand has been sluggish after a record year in 2013. Also, investors have been cutting positions in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchangetraded fund. In the Indian Markets, gold prices rose by 0.34 percent on Friday. Gold prices touched an intraday High of 28891/10gms and closed at 28730/10gms. Silver prices eased further on Tuesday in Asia following the U.S. lead as support from tensions in the Middle East and RussiaUkraine eased on prospects for negotiations in both regions. In the Indian Markets, silver prices fell by 0.61 percent taking cues from International Silver prices. Further, Stronger Indian Rupee also added pressure to the prices. Silver Prices touched intraday low of 43555/Kg and closed at 43712/Kg We expect gold prices to trade on the mixed note as weaker Indian Rupee on the back of Inflation data coupled with Rise in Geopolitical tensions in Iraq and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine may upsurge the demand for safe haven. However, upcoming economic data from the US will be watched for the further improvement in the economy. Additionally, Physical demand has not been strong enough to support prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices. Base Metals London copper fell on Tuesday to near sixweek lows as improving supply and renewed tension between Ukraine and Russia combined with a summer lull to curb investors' appetite for risky assets. Industrial production data from China due today could give a clearer view about the health of the world's secondlargest economy and the biggest consumer of copper. Among other metals, nickel has scope for further gains as thirdquarter industrial activity ramps up and China's stocks have diminished since Indonesia banned exports of nickel ore in January.In the Indian Markets copper prices fell by 0.43 percent taking clues from LME prices. MCX Copper touched an intraday low of 427.4/kg and closed at 427.9/kg We expect base metal prices to trade on the mixed note ahead of industrial production data from China and major economic data from the United States, which should paint a
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clearer picture of the prospect for metals as the end of the year rolls around. Further, weaker economic data from Europe and China may continue to keep prices under pressure for lesser industrial demand. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices. Energy Crude prices fell on Tuesday in wake of a bearish report from the International Energy Agency as well as perceptions that Iraqi oil exports will flow as normal despite an insurgency taking place in the country. The International Energy Agency earlier cut its 2014 global oil demand growth forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to 1.0 million due to lower‐than‐expected deliveries in the second quarter and the International Monetary Fund's weaker outlook for economic growth. In the Indian Markets, crude oil price fell by 0.5 percent taking cues from NYMEX Crude oil prices. Further, appreciation in the Indian Rupee also added pressure to the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intraday low of 5945/bbl. and closed at 5981/bbl. Natural gas futures rose on Tuesday as investors bet a heat wave making its way across the eastern U.S. will prompt households to ramp up their air conditioning. While showers and thunderstorms may cool off parts of the U.S. this week, a heat wave will hold its ground through the third week in August. Higher temperatures often fuel demand for more natural gas as households and business ramp up their air conditioners. In the Indian Markets, Natural gas prices rose by 1.19 percent. Natural Gas prices touched an intraday high of 246.8/mmbtu and closed at 245.8/mmbtu. We expect crude oil prices to trade on the mixed note as couple of bearish reports from IMF and EIA as well as worries over oil disruption from Iraq eased due to ample supplies from other part of the country. Further, Stronger US Dollar may add pressure to the international prices. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp fall in the prices. We expect Natural gas prices to trade on the mixed note. Forecast for showers and thunderstorms may lower the demand for air conditioning. Further, continuous rise in Natural Gas inventory and forecast of rise in supply/record production may also add pressure to the prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may add support to the prices. Web: www.ways2capital.com§
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LME Inventory LME Inventories
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Nickel
Current Stock
140675
215900
715650
4912400
319590
Change
700
0
9475
500
840
% Change
0.50%
0.00%
1.31%
0.01%
0.26%
NCDEX – Weekly News Letters 1.
CHANA
Chana Sept futures traded on a negative note on Thursday due to arrival pressure, Prices have declined over the last few days on good rains which has improved prospects for the rabi crop coupled with increasing sowing of kharif pulses. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 7th August stands at 7.61 mn ha as against 8.9 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong stands at 2.78 mn ha, 1.83 mn ha and 1.71 mn ha respectively. CCEA increased the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was increased by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. The 3rd Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 201314 at 19.6 mn tn, marginally lower from 19.8 mn tn earlier. There was a delay in the harvesting of the chana crop along with some crop damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. According to India Pulses and Grains Association, AprDec’13 stood at import 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 201213, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the preceding year. However, imports in 2013 14 season may decline 11% to 3.2 mn tn on expectations of higher output. According to APEDA, Pulses exports (kabuli chana) between AprFeb ’14 rose 228% to 517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between AprFeb ’13. Web: www.ways2capital.com§
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2.
SOYABEAN
Soybean futures recovered from lower levels on Wednesday on short coverings and traded in negative note on Thursday. Prices have declined sharply over the last few days on good monsoon and weak meal export demand. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 7th August is reported at 10.31 mn ha compared to 11.88 mn ha last year. There have been concerns over below normal monsoon this season, emergence of ElNino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 25002560/qtl. The Ministry of Agriculture in its 3nd Advance Estimates, projected 201314 soybean output at 11.9 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 201213. Soy meal exports in July ’14 have declined 93.8% to 6,635 tn from 107,038 tn in July’13 on poor demand and lower availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for foreign buyers. CBOT Soybean Nov futures traded on a negative note on Wednesday as USDA report forecast higher soybean output. Rains in the Midwest coupled with favorable weather and record high sowing also pressurized prices and settled 1.2% lower. Planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn acres, higher than the planting intention forecast record high 81.493 mn acres. Good to excellent condition stood at 70% against 71% last week. According to NOPA, soybean crushing in June was reported at 118.718 mn bsh, against 128.824 mn bsh in May. 3.
JEERA (CUMIN SEED)
Jeera Sept futures recovered from lower levels on short coverings and settled 0.22% higher. Prices have declined over the last few weeks on weak demand. Buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks have also pressurized prices. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Web: www.ways2capital.com§
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Geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Wednesday. (Source: Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between AprDec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between AprDec 2012. (Source: Spices Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 201314 is expected around 4550 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 4045 lakh bags last year.
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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.
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