Commodity report by ways2capital 18 aug 2014

Page 1

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-14 682.10

671.50 660.10 653.20

649.80 644.50 638.30 627.90 616.50

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

3972

3834

3695

3604

3558

3469

3420

3282

3144

RMSEED

20-AUG-14 3755

3662

3569

3509

3476

3416

3382

3290

3197

JEERAUNJHA

20-AUG-14 11650

11515 11380

11308

11245 11170 11110 10978 10845

DHANIYA

20-AUG-14 12475

12200 11934

11762

11660 11495 11394 11120 10850

CASTORSEED

20-AUG-14 4501

4436

4371

4338

4306

4275

4245

4178

4110

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-14 708

689

670

658

651

639

532

613

595

SYBEANIDR

20-OCT-14

4072

3904

3736

3626

3568

3458

3400

3232

3064

RMSEED

20-AUG-14 3864

3739

3614

3533

3489

3408

3364

3239

3114

JEERAUNJHA

20-AUG-14 11940

11720 11500

11375

11280 11155 11060 10840 10260

DHANIYA

20-AUG-14 14040

13305 12561

12088

11820 11348 11080 10340 9601

CASTORSEED

20-AUG-14 4661

4543

4365

4301

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4425

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4247

|

4189

4071

3953

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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14

6258

6128

5998

5912

5868

5782

5738

5608

GOLD

03-OCT-14

26456

29181

28906

28763

28631

28488

28356

28081 27806

LEAD . NATURALGAS

28-AUG-14

139.60

137.80

135.95

134.80

134.20 133.10 132.40 130.60 128.80

26-AUG-14

260.60

252.90

245.20

242.30

237.50 234.60 229.80 222.10 214.40

NICKEL

28-AUG-14

1179

1163

1147

1138

1131

1122

1115

1099

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

44576

44146

43716

43503

43286

43073

42856

42426 41996

ZINC

28-AUG-14

143.80

142.10

140.30

139.25

138.60 137.50 136.80 135.10 133.30

5478

1083

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14 136

131

127

123

122

119

117

113

108

COPPER

29-AUG-14 473

455

438

427

421

409

404

386

369

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6525

6315

6105

5966

5895

5756

5685

5475

5265

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29840

29450

29060

28840

28670

28450

28280

27890 27500

LEAD

28-AUG-14 152

146

141

137

135

131

129

124

118

NATURAL GAS

26-AUG-14 281

267

253

246

239

232

225

211

197

NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1259

1219

1179

1154

1139

1114

1099

1059

1019

SILVER

5-SEPT-14 46410

45430

44450

43870

43470

42890

42490

41510 40530

ZINC

28-AUG-14 155

150

144

141

139

136

134

129

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123


MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS International News 1. European markets were trading on a positive note yesterday on better than forecast profit reports from utility major EON SE and Swiss Life Holding AG. Asian markets ended higher and the US stock futures are trading in the green. 2. China’s Industrial Production fell to 9 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June. UK’s Claimant Count Change fell by 33.6K in July as against a decline of 39.5K in June. Unemployment Rate fell to 6.4 percent in June from 6.5 percent in May. Euro Zone’s Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in June as against a plunge of 1.1 percent in May. 3. Talks to end a month­long war between Israel and Gaza militants are "difficult", Palestinian delegates said, while Israeli officials said no progress had been made so far and fighting could soon resume. 4. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that while the situation in several producer countries was "more at risk than ever," supplies were ample and the Atlantic Basin was facing a glut. OPEC output hit a five­month high of 30.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in July with a 300,000­bpd rise led by Saudi Arabia and Libya, the IEA said. 5. Production in Iraqi Kurdistan remains largely unaffected 6. U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine have not yet disrupted supply, but the IEA cautioned that the sanctions are expected to trim Russian demand. (SOURCES : Reuters) Precious Metals Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on signs that the stand­off between Russia and Ukraine was hurting economic confidence in the euro zone economy. Analyst and investor morale in Germany, Europe's largest economy, plunged in August to its lowest level in more than a year and a half as the crisis in Ukraine took its toll, the ZEW monthly survey showed.

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While geopolitical tension has inspired some sporadic investment buying, gold has not enjoyed much physical demand. In top consuming region Asia, demand has been sluggish after a record year in 2013. Also, investors have been cutting positions in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold­backed exchange­traded fund. In the Indian Markets, gold prices rose by 0.34 percent on Friday. Gold prices touched an intraday High of 28891/10gms and closed at 28730/10gms. Silver prices eased further on Tuesday in Asia following the U.S. lead as support from tensions in the Middle East and Russia­Ukraine eased on prospects for negotiations in both regions. In the Indian Markets, silver prices fell by 0.61 percent taking cues from International Silver prices. Further, Stronger Indian Rupee also added pressure to the prices. Silver Prices touched intraday low of 43555/Kg and closed at 43712/Kg We expect gold prices to trade on the mixed note as weaker Indian Rupee on the back of Inflation data coupled with Rise in Geopolitical tensions in Iraq and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine may upsurge the demand for safe haven. However, upcoming economic data from the US will be watched for the further improvement in the economy. Additionally, Physical demand has not been strong enough to support prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices. Base Metals London copper fell on Tuesday to near six­week lows as improving supply and renewed tension between Ukraine and Russia combined with a summer lull to curb investors' appetite for risky assets. Industrial production data from China due today could give a clearer view about the health of the world's second­largest economy and the biggest consumer of copper. Among other metals, nickel has scope for further gains as third­quarter industrial activity ramps up and China's stocks have diminished since Indonesia banned exports of nickel ore in January.In the Indian Markets copper prices fell by 0.43 percent taking clues from LME prices. MCX Copper touched an intraday low of 427.4/kg and closed at 427.9/kg We expect base metal prices to trade on the mixed note ahead of industrial production data from China and major economic data from the United States, which should paint a

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clearer picture of the prospect for metals as the end of the year rolls around. Further, weaker economic data from Europe and China may continue to keep prices under pressure for lesser industrial demand. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices. Energy Crude prices fell on Tuesday in wake of a bearish report from the International Energy Agency as well as perceptions that Iraqi oil exports will flow as normal despite an insurgency taking place in the country. The International Energy Agency earlier cut its 2014 global oil demand growth forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to 1.0 million due to lower‐than‐expected deliveries in the second quarter and the International Monetary Fund's weaker outlook for economic growth. In the Indian Markets, crude oil price fell by 0.5 percent taking cues from NYMEX Crude oil prices. Further, appreciation in the Indian Rupee also added pressure to the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intraday low of 5945/bbl. and closed at 5981/bbl. Natural gas futures rose on Tuesday as investors bet a heat wave making its way across the eastern U.S. will prompt households to ramp up their air conditioning. While showers and thunderstorms may cool off parts of the U.S. this week, a heat wave will hold its ground through the third week in August. Higher temperatures often fuel demand for more natural gas as households and business ramp up their air conditioners. In the Indian Markets, Natural gas prices rose by 1.19 percent. Natural Gas prices touched an intraday high of 246.8/mmbtu and closed at 245.8/mmbtu. We expect crude oil prices to trade on the mixed note as couple of bearish reports from IMF and EIA as well as worries over oil disruption from Iraq eased due to ample supplies from other part of the country. Further, Stronger US Dollar may add pressure to the international prices. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp fall in the prices. We expect Natural gas prices to trade on the mixed note. Forecast for showers and thunderstorms may lower the demand for air conditioning. Further, continuous rise in Natural Gas inventory and forecast of rise in supply/record production may also add pressure to the prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may add support to the prices. Web: www.ways2capital.com§

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LME Inventory LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Current Stock

140675

215900

715650

4912400

319590

Change

700

0

9475

500

840

% Change

0.50%

0.00%

1.31%

0.01%

0.26%

NCDEX – Weekly News Letters 1.

CHANA

Chana Sept futures traded on a negative note on Thursday due to arrival pressure, Prices have declined over the last few days on good rains which has improved prospects for the rabi crop coupled with increasing sowing of kharif pulses. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 7th August stands at 7.61 mn ha as against 8.9 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong stands at 2.78 mn ha, 1.83 mn ha and 1.71 mn ha respectively. CCEA increased the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was increased by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. The 3rd Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013­14 at 19.6 mn tn, marginally lower from 19.8 mn tn earlier. There was a delay in the harvesting of the chana crop along with some crop damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. According to India Pulses and Grains Association, Apr­Dec’13 stood at import 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012­13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the preceding year. However, imports in 2013­ 14 season may decline 11% to 3.2 mn tn on expectations of higher output. According to APEDA, Pulses exports (kabuli chana) between Apr­Feb ’14 rose 228% to 517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between Apr­Feb ’13. Web: www.ways2capital.com§

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2.

SOYABEAN

Soybean futures recovered from lower levels on Wednesday on short coverings and traded in negative note on Thursday. Prices have declined sharply over the last few days on good monsoon and weak meal export demand. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 7th August is reported at 10.31 mn ha compared to 11.88 mn ha last year. There have been concerns over below normal monsoon this season, emergence of El­Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500­2560/qtl. The Ministry of Agriculture in its 3nd Advance Estimates, projected 2013­14 soybean output at 11.9 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012­13. Soy meal exports in July ’14 have declined 93.8% to 6,635 tn from 107,038 tn in July’13 on poor demand and lower availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for foreign buyers. CBOT Soybean Nov futures traded on a negative note on Wednesday as USDA report forecast higher soybean output. Rains in the Midwest coupled with favorable weather and record high sowing also pressurized prices and settled 1.2% lower. Planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn acres, higher than the planting intention forecast record high 81.493 mn acres. Good to excellent condition stood at 70% against 71% last week. According to NOPA, soybean crushing in June was reported at 118.718 mn bsh, against 128.824 mn bsh in May. 3.

JEERA (CUMIN SEED)

Jeera Sept futures recovered from lower levels on short coverings and settled 0.22% higher. Prices have declined over the last few weeks on weak demand. Buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks have also pressurized prices. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Web: www.ways2capital.com§

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Geo­political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Wednesday. (Source: Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between Apr­Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between Apr­Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013­14 is expected around 45­50 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40­45 lakh bags last year.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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