COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
Web: www.ways2capital.com
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com
|
Call: 0731-6554125
NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
SYOREFIDR
20AUG14
702.10
SYBEANIDR
20OCT14
RMSEED
R1
PP
693.50 684.60
681.20
675.50 672.30 666.80 657.10 648.90
3939
3867
3803
3773
3739
3709
3675
3611
3547
20AUG14
3699
3672
3645
3634
3618
3607
3591
3564
3537
JEERAUNJHA
20AUG14
12071
11951 11831
11758
11711 11638 11591
11470
11351
DHANIYA
20AUG14
12486
12301 12116
12048
11931 11863 11746
11561
11376
CASTORSEED
20AUG14
4412
4328
4244
4199
4160
4115
4076
3992
3908
WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20AUG14
732.50
712.60 692.60
685.10
672.90 665.90 652.40 632.70 612.50
SYBEANIDR
20OCT14
4054
3944
3834
3789
3724
3679
3614
3504
3394
RMSEED
20AUG14
3820
3750
3681
3652
3611
3582
3541
3471
3401
JEERAUNJHA
20AUG14
12668
12353 12038
11861
11723 11546 11408
11093
10778
DHANIYA
20AUG14
13110
12725 13340
12160
11955 11775 11570
11185
10800
CASTORSEED
20AUG14
4998
4735
4313
4209
3683
3420
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
R2
4472
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
S1
4050
|
S2
3964
S3
S4
Call: 0731-6554125
MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY
EXPIRY R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
CRUDE OIL
21JULY
6357
6290
6249
6223
6182
6156
6089
6022
GOLD
5 AUG14 28815 28553
28291
28142
28029
27880
27767
27505
27243
LEAD
31JULY
135.50 134.05
132.50
131.80
131.05
130.30
129.50
128.05
126.85
NATURAL
28JULY
250
246
242
240
238
236
234
230
226
NICKEL
31JULY
1263
1219
1176
1149
1132
1105
1088
1045
1001
SILVER
5SEPT14 47517 46707
45897
45414
45087
44604
44277
43467
42657
ZINC
31JULY
139.50
138.85
138.15
137.50
136.80
135.45
134.10
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
6424
142.20 140.85
WEEKLY
EXPIRY R4
R3
ALUMINIUM
31JULY
130.90
126.55 112.20
120.45
117.85
116.10
113.50
109.15
104.80
COPPER
29AUG
466
453
441
434
429
421
417
404
392
CRUDE OIL
21JULY
7035
6739
6443
6326
6147
6030
5851
5555
5259
GOLD
5 AUG14 30409
29604
28799
28396
27994
27591
27189
26384
25579
LEAD
31JULY
139
137
134
132
131
129
128
125
122
NATURAL
28JULY
287
272
257
247
242
232
226
211
196
NICKEL
31JULY
1304
1248
1192
1157
1136
1101
1080
1024
968
SILVER
5SEPT14 49491
48011
46531
45731
45051
44251
43571
42091
40611
ZINC
31JULY
141.55 139.90
139.05
138.25
137.40
136.60
134.95
133.30
143.20
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
MCX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Important News
US Building Permits was at 0.96 million in the last month.
Sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil company boosted crude oil prices.
Euro Zone CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June.
Renewed Ukraine concerns spurred safe haven status of gold.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index gained to 23.9mark in July.
Indian Currency The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated for fourth consecutive days and fell around 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further, rise in oil prices after new sanctions imposed by the US on Russia exerted downside pressure on the currency. Unfavorable trade balance data in prior trading session lead to concerns over the financial stability of the country and acted as a negative factor. Precious Metals Spot gold prices gained by around 1.4 percent on Thursday as investors sought shelter in the precious metal on fears of further turmoil after news that a Malaysian passenger jetliner had been downed in Ukraine. Earlier, safehaven bids had already boosted bullion prices on new U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia, fresh on the heels of news that a Ukrainian fighter plane had been shot down over eastern Ukraine. Gold rallied $20 per ounce in about 40 minutes and the S&P 500 equities index tumbled after the Malaysian airliner was brought down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 295 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and proMoscow rebels in which Russia and the West back opposing sides. Before the Malaysian jetliner news, precious metal prices were higher on U.S. President Barack Obama's move to impose sanctions on some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time over Moscow's failure to curb violence in Ukraine. On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 1.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and closed at Rs.28199/10gms. On an next trading session basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
escalation of tensions in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh round of sanctions imposed by US on Russia. Housing data released last night did not come as per expectations appealing bullions safe haven appeal in turn acting as a positive factor for prices. On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets. Base Metals Base metals on the LME largely gained on Thursday as the manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down. Aluminum prices rose to a 16month high yesterday as LME inventories slump to the lowest in 22 months. However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable housing data from the US. Also, concerns regarding the health of construction sector in China after Huntington Road & Bridge Group warned that it might not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week exerted downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded on a positive note taking cues from international markets. Energy Oil prices gained on Thursday, extending their rebound from a weekslong decline as new U.S. sanctions announced on Wednesday took aim at some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time, including Rosneft, the largest oil producer. Gains accelerated over the afternoon as news spread of a Malaysian airliner crash in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting proMoscow rebels. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said the jet was "blown out of the sky" and Ukraine accused "terrorists" of shooting it down. On the MCX, crude oil prices rose by around 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.6221/bbl. Natural gas prices on the NYMEX declined by more than 3 percent on moderating climate in the US and inventory additions in storage more than the market expectations. Utilities have added 107Bcf of gas in the previous week as against previous addition of 93Bcf acting as a negative factor for prices. On the MCX, NG prices declined by more than 4 percent on weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.238.60/Mmbtu. On next trading session basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions in Ukraine coupled with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher. Besides, incremental demand for crude in the US is visible in draw down in inventories for continuous two weeks in a row is acting as a positive factor. On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets. NCDEX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MANSOON WATCH •
Monsoon covers entire India—IMD
•
The Rainfall deficiency falls to 36% from 42% Agri counters trade with high volatile as moderate corrections seen over revival of Monsoon.
SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M.
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
CHANA After the recent fall in rates for Chana, prices bounced back as demand rose in the mandis. Some more recovery is likely for the counter even as improved Monsoon reports could also keep the uptrend limited. The demand that had picked up over last few days slowed down at these higher levels as traders wait for dips before initiating fresh demand in the mandis. An already weak Monsoon seen so far has been supporting the overall market sentiment for the commodity. Repeated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for essential Food items are however keeping the uptrend limited also. Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 42% below normal till date As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 182.40 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 4.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 45.12 lakh ha, pulses in 7.50 lakh On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments. SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Refined soy oil continued the bullish tone on steady demand from traders and stockiests amid low supplies. US markets firmed up on some support from Chinese demand at these low levels coupled with geo political tension in Ukraine borders. The soy oil remained under pressure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov Oct Global production of 10 major oilseeds is forecast to climb 3 percent in 201415 on a bigger soybean harvest, lifting stocks to a record by the end of the next season. Soybean markets remained firm on demand from crushers and meal exporters picking up in mandis across MP & Mahrashtra. The supplies are slow as suppliers are expecting a rally in prices in the coming season. As per per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the oilseed sowing is around 14.49 lakh hectares down from a bumper sowing of 110.27 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Soybean production may jump to 301.9 million tons from 284.11 million tons. Brazil’s harvest Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
may climb to 90 million tons from 86.5 million and Argentina may gather 56 million tons from 55 million a year earlier. The inventories will be at a record 85.31 million tons.
CUMIN SEED (JEERA) Jeera trades with extreme high volatility as the initial upside movement is followed by profit booking by day end. Good Export demand however keeps sentiments firm for the commodity. Arrival remained moderate. But an expected pick up in exports in coming weeks, supported by a firmness in Dollar vs Re could support the prices. Downtrend from these levels seem limited. Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary exporter for this commodity as of now. Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.57 million bags of 55 kg each in the year 2014, from 4.55 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favourable weather conditions.
Rape/mustard Seed Rmseed picked up after a days weakness due to firm demand from meal exporters and crushers in northern belts. The arrivals are in the range of 60,000—80,000 bags of 85 Kg each. Rajasthan government has lowered the VAT on rapeseed from 5 to 3 %. As per SEA of India, the sowing area is estimated to be around 71.38 lakh ha higher by 3.89 lakh ha compared to last year and production around 72.25 lakh MT.
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.
Web: www.ways2capital.com§
|
Mail: info@ways2capital.com§
|
Call: 0731-6554125