Commodity report by ways2capital 21 july 2014

Page 1

COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT

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NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

SYOREFIDR

20­AUG­14

702.10

SYBEANIDR

20­OCT­14

RMSEED

R1

PP

693.50 684.60

681.20

675.50 672.30 666.80 657.10 648.90

3939

3867

3803

3773

3739

3709

3675

3611

3547

20­AUG­14

3699

3672

3645

3634

3618

3607

3591

3564

3537

JEERAUNJHA

20­AUG­14

12071

11951 11831

11758

11711 11638 11591

11470

11351

DHANIYA

20­AUG­14

12486

12301 12116

12048

11931 11863 11746

11561

11376

CASTORSEED

20­AUG­14

4412

4328

4244

4199

4160

4115

4076

3992

3908

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20­AUG­14

732.50

712.60 692.60

685.10

672.90 665.90 652.40 632.70 612.50

SYBEANIDR

20­OCT­14

4054

3944

3834

3789

3724

3679

3614

3504

3394

RMSEED

20­AUG­14

3820

3750

3681

3652

3611

3582

3541

3471

3401

JEERAUNJHA

20­AUG­14

12668

12353 12038

11861

11723 11546 11408

11093

10778

DHANIYA

20­AUG­14

13110

12725 13340

12160

11955 11775 11570

11185

10800

CASTORSEED

20­AUG­14

4998

4735

4313

4209

3683

3420

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R2

4472

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S1

4050

|

S2

3964

S3

S4

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MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

CRUDE OIL

21­JULY­

6357

6290

6249

6223

6182

6156

6089

6022

GOLD

5­ AUG­14 28815 28553

28291

28142

28029

27880

27767

27505

27243

LEAD

31­JULY­

135.50 134.05

132.50

131.80

131.05

130.30

129.50

128.05

126.85

NATURAL

28­JULY­

250

246

242

240

238

236

234

230

226

NICKEL

31­JULY­

1263

1219

1176

1149

1132

1105

1088

1045

1001

SILVER

5­SEPT­14 47517 46707

45897

45414

45087

44604

44277

43467

42657

ZINC

31­JULY­

139.50

138.85

138.15

137.50

136.80

135.45

134.10

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

6424

142.20 140.85

WEEKLY

EXPIRY R4

R3

ALUMINIUM

31­JULY­

130.90

126.55 112.20

120.45

117.85

116.10

113.50

109.15

104.80

COPPER

29­AUG­

466

453

441

434

429

421

417

404

392

CRUDE OIL

21­JULY­

7035

6739

6443

6326

6147

6030

5851

5555

5259

GOLD

5­ AUG­14 30409

29604

28799

28396

27994

27591

27189

26384

25579

LEAD

31­JULY­

139

137

134

132

131

129

128

125

122

NATURAL

28­JULY­

287

272

257

247

242

232

226

211

196

NICKEL

31­JULY­

1304

1248

1192

1157

1136

1101

1080

1024

968

SILVER

5­SEPT­14 49491

48011

46531

45731

45051

44251

43571

42091

40611

ZINC

31­JULY­

141.55 139.90

139.05

138.25

137.40

136.60

134.95

133.30

143.20

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MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Important News 

US Building Permits was at 0.96 million in the last month.

Sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil company boosted crude oil prices.

Euro Zone CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June.

Renewed Ukraine concerns spurred safe haven status of gold.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index gained to 23.9­mark in July.

Indian Currency The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated for fourth consecutive days and fell around 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further, rise in oil prices after new sanctions imposed by the US on Russia exerted downside pressure on the currency. Unfavorable trade balance data in prior trading session lead to concerns over the financial stability of the country and acted as a negative factor. Precious Metals Spot gold prices gained by around 1.4 percent on Thursday as investors sought shelter in the precious metal on fears of further turmoil after news that a Malaysian passenger jetliner had been downed in Ukraine. Earlier, safe­haven bids had already boosted bullion prices on new U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia, fresh on the heels of news that a Ukrainian fighter plane had been shot down over eastern Ukraine. Gold rallied $20 per ounce in about 40 minutes and the S&P 500 equities index tumbled after the Malaysian airliner was brought down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 295 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and pro­Moscow rebels in which Russia and the West back opposing sides. Before the Malaysian jetliner news, precious metal prices were higher on U.S. President Barack Obama's move to impose sanctions on some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time over Moscow's failure to curb violence in Ukraine. On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 1.8 percent taking cues from strong international markets and closed at Rs.28199/10gms. On an next trading session basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on

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escalation of tensions in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh round of sanctions imposed by US on Russia. Housing data released last night did not come as per expectations appealing bullions safe haven appeal in turn acting as a positive factor for prices. On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets. Base Metals Base metals on the LME largely gained on Thursday as the manufacturing data from the US turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down. Aluminum prices rose to a 16­month high yesterday as LME inventories slump to the lowest in 22 months. However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable housing data from the US. Also, concerns regarding the health of construction sector in China after Huntington Road & Bridge Group warned that it might not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week exerted downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded on a positive note taking cues from international markets. Energy Oil prices gained on Thursday, extending their rebound from a weeks­long decline as new U.S. sanctions announced on Wednesday took aim at some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time, including Rosneft, the largest oil producer. Gains accelerated over the afternoon as news spread of a Malaysian airliner crash in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting pro­Moscow rebels. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said the jet was "blown out of the sky" and Ukraine accused "terrorists" of shooting it down. On the MCX, crude oil prices rose by around 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.6221/bbl. Natural gas prices on the NYMEX declined by more than 3 percent on moderating climate in the US and inventory additions in storage more than the market expectations. Utilities have added 107Bcf of gas in the previous week as against previous addition of 93Bcf acting as a negative factor for prices. On the MCX, NG prices declined by more than 4 percent on weakness in international markets and closed at Rs.238.60/Mmbtu. On next trading session basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing

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its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions in Ukraine coupled with additional sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher. Besides, incremental demand for crude in the US is visible in draw down in inventories for continuous two weeks in a row is acting as a positive factor. On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets. NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MANSOON WATCH •

Monsoon covers entire India—IMD

The Rainfall deficiency falls to 36% from 42% Agri counters trade with high volatile as moderate corrections seen over revival of Monsoon.

SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M.

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CHANA After the recent fall in rates for Chana, prices bounced back as demand rose in the mandis. Some more recovery is likely for the counter even as improved Monsoon reports could also keep the uptrend limited. The demand that had picked up over last few days slowed down at these higher levels as traders wait for dips before initiating fresh demand in the mandis. An already weak Monsoon seen so far has been supporting the overall market sentiment for the commodity. Re­peated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for essen­tial Food items are however keeping the uptrend limited also. Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 42% below normal till date As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 182.40 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 4.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 45.12 lakh ha, pulses in 7.50 lakh On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Cana­da low resulting in further weaken­ing of market sentiments. SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Refined soy oil continued the bullish tone on steady demand from traders and stockiests amid low supplies. US markets firmed up on some support from Chinese de­mand at these low levels coupled with geo political tension in Ukraine borders. The soy oil remained under pres­sure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov ­ Oct Global production of 10 major oilseeds is forecast to climb 3 percent in 2014­15 on a bigger soybean harvest, lifting stocks to a record by the end of the next sea­son. Soybean markets remained firm on demand from crushers and meal exporters picking up in mandis across MP & Mahrashtra. The supplies are slow as suppliers are expecting a rally in prices in the coming season. As per per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the oilseed sowing is around 14.49 lakh hectares down from a bumper sowing of 110.27 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Soybean production may jump to 301.9 million tons from 284.11 million tons. Brazil’s harvest Web: www.ways2capital.com§

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may climb to 90 million tons from 86.5 million and Argentina may gather 56 million tons from 55 million a year earlier. The inventories will be at a record 85.31 million tons.

CUMIN SEED (JEERA) Jeera trades with extreme high volatility as the initial upside move­ment is followed by profit booking by day end. Good Export demand however keeps sentiments firm for the commodity. Arrival remained moderate. But an expected pick up in exports in coming weeks, supported by a firmness in Dollar vs Re could support the prices. Downtrend from these levels seem limited. Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary export­er for this commodity as of now. Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.5­7 million bags of 55 kg each in the year 2014, from 4.5­5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favoura­ble weather conditions.

Rape/mustard Seed Rmseed picked up after a days weakness due to firm demand from meal exporters and crushers in northern belts. The arrivals are in the range of 60,000—80,000 bags of 85 Kg each. Rajasthan government has lowered the VAT on rapeseed from 5 to 3 %. As per SEA of India, the sowing area is estimated to be around 71.38 lakh ha higher by 3.89 lakh ha compared to last year and production around 72.25 lakh MT.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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