Commodity report by ways2capital 23 sep 2014

Page 1

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

611

607

603

601

599

597

595

591

587

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3445

3345

3245

3180

3145

3080

3045

2945

2848

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3785

3738

3691

3663

3641

3616

3597

3550

3509

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

11143

10993 10843

10756

10693 10606 10543 10392 10243

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

12030

11890 11750

11660

11614 11530 11475 11336 11197

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

4513

4436

4359

4323

4282

4246

4205

4128

4051

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

675

649

623

611

596

585

571

545

519

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14

3858

3634

3410

3262

3186

3038

2962

2738

2514

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3947

3839

3731

3684

3623

3576

3515

3407

3299

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

11677

11367 11057

10863

10747 10553 10437 10127 9817

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

12833

12433 12033

11870

11633 11407 11233 10833 10433

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

5080

5790

4395

4211

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4501

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4105

3921

3631

3342

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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

28-AUG-14 121.80

120.90

120.05

119.45

119.15

118.60

118.25

117.35

116.45

COPPER

29-AUG-14 435

430

425

423

420

418

415

410

405

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 5876

5791

5706

5658

5621

5573

5536

5451

5366

GOLD

03-OCT-14 27155

26950

26475

26620

26540

26415

26335

26140

25925

LEAD 28-AUG-14 132 . NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 248

130

128

127

126

125

124

122

120

244

240

237

235

233

231

227

222

NICKEL

1106

1094

1087

1082

1075

1070

1058

1046

28-AUG-14 1118

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14 131

127

124

121

120

117

116

112

108

COPPER

29-AUG-14 475

458

441

430

424

413

407

390

373

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6380

6140

5900

5775

5600

5515

5420

5180

4940

GOLD

03-OCT-14 28665

28000

27345

26920

26690

26265

26035

25380 24725

LEAD

28-AUG-14 143

138

133

130

128

125

123

118

113

NATURAL GAS

26-AUG-14 277

264

251

243

238

230

225

212

199

NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1238

1190

1142

1111

1090

1063

1046

998

950

SILVER

5-SEPT-14

44806

42557

41991

40308

38842

38059

35810 33561

ZINC

28-AUG-14 150

146

142

140

138

136

134

130

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47005

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126

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MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Initial claims for Unemployment benefits decreased 36,000 to a seasonally modified 280,000 for the week finished September. 13, the minimum level since July. ✍ The Federal Source on Wed restored its commitment to keep interest levels near zero for a "considerable time," but also indicated it could raise credit costs quicker than predicted when it starts moving. Many economic experts and investors had predicted the U.S. central bank to improve the rate assistance it has provided since Goal, given generally enhancing information on the economy's performance. ✍ Gold price are likely to bottom out between $1,170 and $1,200 in 2015 as the U.S. economic system gradually profits to normal and investors remain aren't bothered about inflationary demands, the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters said on Friday. ✍ Average new house values in China's 70 major places decreased 1.1 % in Aug from This summer, a 4th successive monthly drop, according to Reuters computations from formal information released on Friday. Compared with the year before, house values were up 0.5 % in Aug, reducing from the 2.5 % yearly rise seen in July.

Precious Metals ✍ Gold rebounded on Friday, as traders purchased back their bearish wagers after rumours over an earlier-than-expected U.S. attention rate increase by the Government Source sent gold bullion costs to a 8-1/2-month low. Bullion price were forced previously in the day after data revealed U.S. unemployed statements dropped more than predicted, indicating a tightening work industry, a pattern seen as helpful of economic growth. Follow-through selling also considered on gold a day after the U.S. central bank restored its commitment to keep attention levels near zero for a "considerable time," but indicated it may increase credit costs quicker than predicted once it begins moving. We expect gold price to trade on the negative note as the plans to increase U.S. attention levels prior to predicted and objectives for a more powerful U.S. forex in the longer run likely to keep Bullion industry under pressure.

✍ Silver followed gold price as the money increased to its maximum since This july 2010 against a gift container of foreign exchange after the Fed brought up its forecasts for prices over the next two years and declared a further $10 billion dollars decrease in its monthly connection

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buys, making the program on course to end next month. We expect Silver price to trade on the negative note as the plans to increase U.S. interest levels prior to predicted and objectives for a more powerful U.S. forex in the longer run likely to keep Silver bullion market under stress.

Energy � Crude oil dropped on Friday, forced by adequate supply, concerns about demand growth and a more powerful U.S. Money. Traders pinned much of the drop on the U.S. dollar's move to its highest in more than four years against a gift container of foreign exchange. The doller attracted support from a drop in U.S. unemployed statements and Federal Source interest rate predictions that were greater than those expected in July. We expect oil price to trade on back and forth as enough provides could keep costs under pressure and more powerful US economic system could force price greater.

� Natural gas futures trading clicked four directly times of benefits to close nearly 3 percent lower on Friday after another significant develop in every week stockpiles and predictions for light climate. The U.S. Energy Information Management said resources put 90 billion dollars cubic legs of gas into storage a couple weeks ago. While that develop was exactly what experts asked by Reuters had approximated for the A week, it was more than the 48 bcf hypodermic injection of the year before and the common 71 bcf develop over five years. MDA Weather Services prediction summer in U.S. Western and Main declares over the next 10 times. We expect Gas prices to business on adverse note on the back of greater than predicted accumulation in stocks.

Base metal � All Base Metal fallen on Friday, forced by restored weak point in China's residence industry and by a sharp development of the money after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled attention levels could increase quicker than predicted. The U.S. central bank on Wed restored its commitment to keep attention levels near zero for a "considerable time", but also indicated it could raise borrowing costs quicker than predicted when it starts moving. The perspective for future attention levels raised the money to a more-than a six-year high against the yen. A rising money makes products priced in the U.S. unit more expensive for Web: www.ways2capital.com

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holders of other foreign exchange. Also putting stress on Copper price was a decrease in China's new house values in Aug for a fourth straight month, underlining a deepening downtrend in the residence industry that is progressively with a weight of on the wider economic system. After a powerful performance in 2013, China's housing industry has melted as sales have bogged down and banks have become progressively cautious about lending to designers and property buyers. We expect platform metal price to trade mostly on the negative note as higher supplies, weak Chinese economic system and powerful money are likely to keep costs under stress.

� LME Inventory LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminium

Nickel

Current Stock

154775

225475

753650

4683450

339288

Change

-625

-175

-400

-9500

1296

% Change

-0.40%

-0.08%

-0.05%

-0.20%

0.38%

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS � CHANA Chana Oct futures trading exchanged on a combined observe on Friday. price obtained on joyful purchasing. However, reviews of imports and relaxed provides kept prices under pressure. Prices have dropped over the last few several weeks on gradual requirement in the actual marketplaces along with history chana outcome in 2013-14. According to the Secretary of state for Farming, planting of kharif impulses as on Eleventh Sept appears 6.6% reduced at 9.92 mn ha as against 10.62 mn ha last year. CCEA improved the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was improved by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. The 4th Enhance Reports placed complete impulses outcome for 2013-14 at 19.27 mn tn, up from 18.34 mn tn previously. There was a wait in the growing of the chana plants along with some plants harm in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

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As per the Secretary of state for Farming, area under Rabi Pulses 2013-14 was standing at 161.9 lakh ha as against 152.65 lakh ha last year. Chana planting was standing at 10.21 mn ha in comparison to 9.51 mn ha during the same period last year. Supplies of Chana since past one year has been adequate as the nation gained fender Chana outcome in 2012-13 year. For 2013-14 too, the govt in their 4th advance estimates has estimated history outcome of at 9.88 mn loads in the Rabi year. According to Native indian Pulses and Grain Organization, Apr-Dec’13 was standing at transfer 2.4 mn tn vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value conditions, Native indian brought in $2.3 billion dollars of impulses in 2012-13, almost 28% greater over $1.85 billion dollars in the previous year. However, imports in 2013-14 year may decrease 11% to 3.2 mn tn on objectives of greater outcome.

✍ SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Soy bean futures trading on a negative note on better than predicted growing, excellent down pours in the soybean straps, inadequate soy food exports and weak point in the worldwide marketplaces .price had obtained over the last few classes on short covers and limited provides of the old plants. According to Secretary of state for Farming soybean growing as on Eleventh Sept is revealed at 11.01 mn ha in comparison to 12.22 mn HA last season. There have been issues over below normal monsoon this season, appearance of El-Nino and lack of plant seeds for kharif 2014 growing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean the same at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. The Secretary of state for Farming in its 4th Advance Reports, estimated 2013-14 soybean outcome at 11.99 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13. Soy food exports in Aug ’14 have dropped 98.49% to 2,778 tn from 183,555 tn in Aug ’13 on inadequate requirement and reduced accessibility for smashing due to greater Native Indian quotations for international customers. CBOT Soy bean Nov futures trading exchanged on a negative note on Friday on a pick-up in the smashing actions and resolved 1.12% reduced. Costs have dropped over the last few weeks on excellent plants circumstances, objectives of greater results in and a fender outcome. USDA prediction greater than predicted outcome. Planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn miles. Best to excellent condition was standing at 72% against 72% last week. According to NOPA, soybean smashing in This summer was revealed at 119.620 mn bsh, against 118.718 mn bsh in July.

✍ JEERA Jeera Oct futures trading on a bearish note and made a new low of Rs. 10730. price have Web: www.ways2capital.com

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dropped on gradual requirement and huge carryover inventory . Area under Jeera in Gujarat was revealed at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last season while about 390,000 ha were planted in Rajasthan. Geo-political stress in Syria and Poultry have led to a provide crisis in the international marketplaces increasing provide issues from the two significant dispatching nations. Business purchases are redirected to Indian. Manufacturing is also predicted to drop in Syria and Poultry due to plants failing. Arrivals in Unjha were revealed at 6,000 purses on Wed. (Source: Agriwatch). Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 was standing at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between AprDec 2012. (Source: Spices or herbs Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have surpassed 1,00,000 loads until Feb’14. Manufacturing of Jeera in 2013-14 is predicted around 45-50 lakh purses (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh purses last season.

✍ RM SEED Mustard seeds Oct futures trading on a bullish note on Friday. Food business requirement and decreasing appearance stress reinforced price while poor soy beans assigned the benefit to push upper side price of RM Seed. Mustard meal business improved 16.13% to 105,375 tn in Aug ’14 in comparison to 90,735 tn in Aug’13. Planting of mustard seeds in 2013-14 was standing at 7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Farming ministry in its 4th advance reports has placed 2013-14 mustard outcome at 7.96 mn tn, down 0.85% in comparison to 8.03 mn tn in 2012-13. Mustard seeds futures trading may trade with positive note in next week. Food business requirement and lower routes may support price. However, greater mustard oil imports may cap upper side movement.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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