Commodity report by ways2capital 29 july 2014

Page 1

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NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

SYOREFIDR

20­AUG­14 697.10

692.30 687.50 684.50 682.10 679.80 677.80 672.10 667.90

SYBEANIDR

20­OCT­14 3834

3796

3758

3739

3720

3701

3682

3644

3606

RMSEED

20­AUG­14 3700

3672

3644

3626

3616

3598

3588

3560

3532

JEERAUNJHA

20­AUG­14 12168

11933 11698 11591

11463 11356 11228 10993 10758

DHANIYA

20­AUG­14 12766

12466 12166 12058

11866 11758 11565 11265 10945

CASTORSEED

20­AUG­14 4457

4352

4247

4212

4142

4107

4037

3932

3827

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20­AUG­14 711.20

701.40 691.50 686.50 681.50 676.90 671.40 661.80 651.20

SYBEANIDR

20­OCT­14 4316

4127

3938

3829

3749

3640

3560

3370

3182

RMSEED

20­AUG­14 3841

3768

3695

3652

3622

3571

3549

3476

3403

JEERAUNJHA

20­AUG­14 12668

12283 11898 11691

R4

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R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

11513 11306 11128 10743 10358

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DHANIYA

20­AUG­14 13055

12664 12273 12111

11882 11720 11491 11100 10709

CASTORSEED

20­AUG­14 4572

4424

4276

4226

4128

4078

3980

3832

3684

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

6226

6188

6137

6099 6048

5959

5870

MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

CRUDE OIL

21­JULY­14 6404

6315

GOLD

5­ AUG­14

28479 28165

28051 27851 27737 27537

27223 26909

LEAD

31­JULY­14 142

139

137

136

135

134

133

131

128

NATURAL GAS

28­JULY­14 247

240

234

230

228

224

222

216

209

NICKEL

31­JULY­14 1208

1189

1170

1159

1151

1140 1132

1113

1094

SILVER

5­SEPT­14

45088 44626

ZINC

31­JULY­14 149.20

28793

45550

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44453 44164 43991 43702

43240 42778

147.50 145.90 144.95 144.20 143.30 142.60 140.95 139.30

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WEEKLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

31­JULY­14 134

129

124

122

120

117

115

110

106

COPPER

29­AUG­14

455

443

437

431

425

419

407

395

CRUDE OIL

21­JULY­14 6667

6499

6331

6240

6163

6072

5995

5827

5659

GOLD

5­ AUG­14

29167 28544 28241 27921 27618 27298

26675 26052

LEAD

31­JULY­14 152

146

140

138

134

132

128

122

115

NATURAL GAS

28­JULY­14 265

253

241

234

229

222

218

206

194

NICKEL

31­JULY­14 1294

1242

1191

1170

1140

1118

1089

1037

986

SILVER

5­SEPT­14

47883 46223 45252 44563 43592 42903

41243 39583

ZINC

31­JULY­14 164

157

127

467

29790

49543

149

146

142

139

134

119

MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Important News •

IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.4 percent for the current year.

US Unemployment Claims declined to 284,000 for w/e 18th July 2014.

Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI grew to 51.9­mark in July.

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UK’s Retail Sales grew by 0.1 percent in the previous month.

US Weekly Data •

US Unemployment Claims declined by 19,000 to 284,000 for the week ending on 18th July 2014 as against a rise of 303,000 in prior week.

Flash •

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1 points to 56.3 .mark in July from 57.3­ level in June.

New Home Sales declined to 406,000 in June with respect to 442,000 in May.

Indian Currency •

The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note on Thursday trading session and retreated from week high and depreciated around 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further, estimates of Reserve Bank of India buying dollars continued with downside movement in the currency.

Precious Metals Gold Comex witnessed good slide with the commodity losing over a percent to $1290 per ounce wherein fall was coincided with very sharp increase in volumes. in India MCX gold losing near 0.9% to Rs 27625 per 10 Gms while other key contracts like the ACE and NCDEX Gold too closed lower b y around a same rate. Comex Gold August slipped last week as Goldman Sachs came out with fresh negative note on the gold. . Later, the Fed Chairman during her testimony stated that the growth of US economy is continuing which added positivity in Dollar index. Though geopolitical issue in Ukraine and Gaza Strip tried to support the metal in latter half, overall it finished lower. This clearly gives bears an upper hand over the commodity. The coming week is going to be highly tricky as on one hand we have to watch at the fresh developments over conflict between Russia­ Ukraine while on the other side, movement in equities, currencies and on actual physical demand side would be watched. When we look at the economy related cues, overall bias towards the US economy continues to be positive wherein in the coming week, we have the critical CPI number along with some housing data and the Durable Goods Orders. The key for Bullion would be the CPI gauge which as per initial estimates is seen maintaining a moderate increase on a MoM basis. Overall looking at the broader aspects, we looks a negative view in the commodity.

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View ­ Bearish ( Sell on high) 1. Base Metals •

Base metals complex ended higher on Thursday lifted by better PMI data out in China and Europe.

Indian Base metal complex moved higher on Thursday, tracking gains in the overseas markets. Rupee depreciated against the Dollar on Thursday and also influenced prices

Dollar index remained firm on Thursday after data from Labour Department that weekly jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000.

Copper prices continued its upward momentum on Friday as investors cheered better than expected manufacturing data out of China.

In other news, China’s scrap copper imports plunged by 13.1% on the month to merely 263,000 MT in June, below the average monthly volume through the first six months, Customs data indicate.

View ­ Bullish ( Buy on dip) •

Energy

Crude oil prices closed on a weaker note as markets once again started talking about weaker demand over gasoline commodity whereas late afternoon global GDP update by the IMF too dented market sentiment. WTI at NYMEX platform lost 1% yesterday to shut near the 102 per barrel level. commodity may trade in positive note that better Chinese, EU and US manufacturing numbers would continue to support prices which were already getting from the huge fall in Crude and Cushing inventories as per latest DOE report.

View ­ Bearish (Sell on high) Natural gas recorded a good rally yesterday backed by betterinventory numbers from the US EIA. NYMEX NG August jumped 2.25% to $3.84 per MMBTU. NG active July expiry at MCX too managed a near similar performance gaining by 2% to Rs 231.50 per barrel. NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS MANSOON WATCH •

Monsoon deficit reduces further to 24% as on 24th July from 25%

Moderate recovery seen for Oil complex, Guar and Spices on short covering after the recent significant fall in rates. Some pickup in demand seen at these lower levels

Firmness in International markets keep trend firm in oil complex

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SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M. CHANA Chana got some support at the lower levels after the recent massive corrections in prices. There was some pick up in demand at these low rates in the mandis. However rains in Central and North­west India kept market sentiments weak for the commodity. Traders anticipate prices to be at low levels and expect downtrend to be limited from these levels. Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 25% below normal till date.

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As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 345.60 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 18.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 127.36 lakh ha, pulses in 21.58 lakh ha, coarse cereals in 48.43 lakh ha, and oilseeds in 38.07 lakh ha. The planting of sugarcane and cotton is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 46.09 lakh ha and cotton in 56.00 lakh ha as on today. Higher Pulses production for 2013­14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013­14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in Tur(3.38 MT), Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments. In the first nine months of fiscal 2013­14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 mt; for the whole year, imports are projected at 2.6 mt, sharply down from 3.8 mt last year, according to Commerce Ministry data. SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA Indian oil seed complex prices moved lower on weak overseas prices amid ideas of better domestic crop growth conditions due to beneficial rains in key central India Soy growing areas. • Monsoon rains in India were 25% below average levels since 1st June. • According to 3rd Advance estimates released by GoI, India’s output for the following crops in 2013­14 year are:­ Soybean­ 11.95 million MT, RM Seed – 7.83 million MT. • Soy meal exports from India, fell sharply to 2,637 MT in June from 8.226 MT in May vs. 213,564 MT in June 2013. India's oil meal exports in June 2014 were 193K MT vs. 161K MT in previous month and 360K MT in June 2013. • India imported 860K MT of veg oils in June vs. 1022K MT in May and 911K MT in June 2013. India imported 598K MT of Palm oil, 99K MT of Soy oil and 155K MT of Sun oil in June 2014. India Physical Market Rates 23­Jul­14 Soybean ­ Indore – NCDEX 4216.00 Rs. / 100 Kg 23­Jul­14 Soybean ­ Kota ­ NCDEX 4350.35 Rs. / 100 Kg 23­Jul­14 Soybean ­Nagpur ­ NCDEX 4280.25 Rs. / 100 Kg 23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Indore ­ NCDEX 686.90 Rs. / 10 Kg 23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Mumbai ­ NCDEX 674.10 Rs. / 10 Kg

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23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Nagpur ­ NCDEX 701.50 Rs. / 10 Kg 23­Jul­14 Soybean meal Export ­ Kandla – NCDEX 39750.00 Rs. / MT 23­Jul­14 Soybean meal ­ Indore ­ NCDEX 38600.00 Rs. / MT 23­Jul­14 Soy meal Export Kandla FAS ­ SEA 650.00 USD / MT 23­Jul­14 Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS ­ SEA 240.00 USD / MT 23­Jul­14 Mustard oil ­ Sri Ganganagar ­ NCDEX 685.50 Rs. / 10 Kg NCDEX Warehouse Inventory Particular

21­Jul­14

22­Jul­14

Soybean ­ Akola

27007

22628

Soybean ­ Nagpur

544

332

Soybean ­ Sagar

151

151

TOTAL SOYBEAN

27702

23111

CBOT Soya complex Prices moved higher yesterday after days of lower price movement. Soybean prices rose from near 4 year low yesterday on reports of lower rains in some US Soy areas. • As of 20 July, US Soybeans was rated 73% good to excellent vs.72% a week ago and 64% a year ago. • According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 15 July, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. • ICE Canola prices closed higher yesterday.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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