Commodity report by ways2capital 30 sep 2014

Page 1

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

631

624

617

613

610

606

603

596

589

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14 3283

3223

3163

3126

3103

3066

3043

2983

2923

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3723

3693

3663

3646

3633

3615

3605

3574

3543

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

10865

10765 10665

10620

10565 10520 10465 10365 10260

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

12605

12355 12105

12013

11856 11763 11606 11356 11106

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

4985

4805

4625

4565

4445

4385

4265

4085

3905

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-OCT-14

695

665

635

620

605

590

575

545

515

SYBEANIDR

20-NOV-14 3493

3348

3223

3156

3088

3021

2955

2818

2683

RMSEED

20-OCT-14

3888

3805

3720

3676

3635

3592

3552

3468

3384

JEERAUNJHA

20-OCT-14

11423

11138 10853

10716

10568 10431 10283 9998

9713

DHANIYA

20-OCT-14

13166

12706 12245

12085

11785 11623 11325 10844 10405

CASTORSEED

20-OCT-14

5158

4913

4586

4423

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4668

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4321

4178

3993

3688

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MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

30-SEP-14 121.50

120.40

119.30

118.60

118.20

117.50

117.10

115.90

114.95

COPPER

29-AUG-14 432

427

422

419

417

414

412

407

402

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6080

5970

5855

5818

5745

5707

5634

5523

5412

GOLD

03-OCT-14 28041

27695

27277

27037

26895

26655

26513

26131

25740

LEAD 28-AUG-14 133 . NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 262

131

129

128

127

126

125

123

121

257

252

250

247

245

242

237

232

NICKEL

1109

1075

1054

1043

1022

1010

977

944

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

28-AUG-14 1142

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

ALUMINIUM

28-AUG-14 124.15

122.20

120.15

119

118.15 117.10

116.20

114.20 112.20

COPPER

29-AUG-14 440

432

424

420

416

412

408

400

392

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-14 6400

6165

5936

5858

5705

5627

5474

5243

5012

GOLD

03-OCT-14 29214

28392

27570

27184

26748

26362

25925

25105 24482

LEAD

28-AUG-14 138

135

130

128

126

124

122

118

114

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 296

278

260

254

242

236

224

206

188

NICKEL

28-AUG-14 1207

1154

1099

1066

1045

1012

991

937

883

SILVER

5-SEPT-14 42758

41590

40422

39786

39254

38615

38085

36915 35750

ZINC

28-AUG-14 153

148

142

140

137

135

132

127

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S4

122

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MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS Asian markets are trading on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the US in yesterday’s trade. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a positive note and gained around 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of weak market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable economic data from the country exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 85.62 and closed at 85.30 on Thursday. US Core Durable Goods Orders grew by 0.7 percent in August as against a decline of 0.7 percent in July. Durable Goods Orders plunged by 18.2 percent in last month from rise of 22.6 percent in July. Unemployment Claims increased by 12,000 to 293,000 for the week ending on 19th Aug’14 with respect to 281,000 in the previous week. US Core Durable Goods Orders grew by 0.7 percent in August. LME Copper stocks fell by 0.3 percent on Wednesday. Euro Zone Money Supply gained around 2 percent in the last month. UK’s CBI Realized Sales plunged by 6 points to 31-mark in September

Precious Metals Gold once again saw good fall wherein the metal slipped to its lowest levels since Dec during intraday however recorded good pullback with rising in volumes at Comex. Gold Dec Comex by end of day finished higher by 0.20% to $1222 per ounce while touched intraday low near $126 per ounce. MCX Gold October though closed 1.45% higher adjusting with Rupee and last two day’s performance in Comex to Rs 26935 per 10 Gms Gold extended its drop to multi-month lows wherein we have been maintaining bearish scenario for many weeks backed by reasons 1.) Weaker physical demand in particularly China and India the two major markets for Gold. Though monthly Gold imports in India increased sharply for August government data shows, overall they still continue to be lower than our long-term and last year’s average. On looking at ETF demand side, the SPDR Gold holdings maintain below the 800 MT mark; around the 2009 year low. 2.) Persistently rising equities across the major western economies have negative effect on gold. US equities continue to hover near record levels whereas locally too, we are seeing Indian Nifty and Sensex making fresh Web: www.ways2capital.com

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records which indirectly affects investment demand for gold. 3.) Subdued inflationary movement in mainly China and EU region where CPI and PPI numbers continue to disappoint. Adding to the above developments, previous week we had talked about the important FOMC meeting and its implications on the USD along with Bullion complex which usually have inverse relationship. One of the major reasons behind fall in gold this week could be taken as Fed updates and comments. Fed officials increased their median estimate for federal funds rate to 1.375% by 2015 end, versus June’s forecast for 1.125%. Rising interest rate scenario makes a highly bearish case for gold which has been a major beneficiary of the easy monetary policy of the US Fed in last couple of years. Overall we feel the aforementioned factors would continue to weigh the Bullion complex as a whole in next week as well.

Base Metal Base metals on the LME traded on a negative note in yesterday’s trade because of a strong dollar that climbed to fresh four-year peak and worries that weak global growth will curb demand. Further, weak durable goods orders data and unemployment claims data from the US acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, base metals traded lower but Rupee depreciation cushioned sharp downside. Copper, the leader of the base complex dropped to a 14-week low and fell by 0.6 percent after a report showed demand for durable goods in August tumbled by a record in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal. Further, strength in the DX which jumped to fresh 4year high acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in the prices was prevented due to fall in LME Copper inventories by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trade. In the Indian markets, copper prices rose around 0.4 percent owing to depreciation in the Rupee.

Energy Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of expectations that plentiful supplies will buffer the market and outweigh the concerns of supply after unrest in the Middle East. Further, unfavorable economic data from the US

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continued with downside movement in the prices. Additionally, restart of the oil production in Libya which climbed to 925,000 barrels a day acted as a negative factor. Also, weak market sentiments and strength in the DX exerted further downside pressure on the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $92.05/bbl and closed at $92.53/bbl in yesterday’s trade. In the Indian markets, oil prices gained around 1.5 percent due to sharp depreciation in the Rupee.

LME Inventory 26-09-2014 LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminium

Nickel

Current Stock

-1150

-50

-125

-3150

3174

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS CHANA Chana futures witnessed covering of shorts on Thursday. Total volumes and OI declined compared to previous trading day.Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 24 September 2014 was 71,996 MT. Decline in arrivals in the spot markets due to major mandis being closed supported the upside. However, mandis could re-open today and could prompt stockists and farmers to offload stocks. Chana delivered at NCDEX approved warehouses during September 2014 was 12,310 MT. NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 312.75/100Kg. As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13. Production of Urad is forecasted to be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 1.43 million MT in2012-13. According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Indianimports of Pulses were 756,321 MT during April-June 2014. This is slightly higher compared749,808 MT during April-June 2013. Imports were 286,780 MT in June 2014

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compared to 260,876 MT in June 2013. SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA Indian oilseed complex prices closed mixed yesterday with Soybean prices firming up yesterday. Rupee closed sharply weaker. • Monsoon rains in India were 11% below average levels since 1st June. • Latest Govt. data showed that total Indian Soybean sowing progressed to 11.04 million hectares vs. 12.22 million hectares in the corresponding period in previous year. • Traders estimate this year’s crop between 9 – 10 million MT. • According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at - 11.82 million MT. • Soy meal exports from India fell to 2,778 MT in August from 6,635 MT in July vs. 183,555 MT in August 2013. India's oil meal exports in August 2014 were 133K MT vs. 125K MT in previous month and 317K MT in August 2013. • According to SEA, India's vegetable oil imports in August hit a record at 1.3 million MT from 1.09 million MT in July. Soy oil imports rose to all time high at 350K MT from 306K MT in July. CBOT Soy complex prices closed lower yesterday with Soy oil moving higher. • Higher Dollar was a negative force. • USDA reported export sales of US Soybeans in the latest week at 2.565 million MT, at the high end of trade expectations. • USDA said private exporters reported sales of 115,000 MT of US Soybeans to China for delivery in 2014-15. USDA pegged weekly export sales of US Soymeal at 35,200 MT for 201314, above expectations, and 45,600 MT for 2014-15, well below trade expectations. • Brazil's 2014/15 Soybean crop now being planted has the potential to yield a record 90-96 million MT, Agriculture Minister Neri Geller said in Sao Paulo. • Brazil's next Soybean crop now being planted will likely yield 91 million MT of which 48 million MT could be exported, the country's vegetable oils association Abiove said. • As of 21 September, US Soybeans was rated 71% good to excellent vs. 72% a week ago and 50% a year ago. • As of 21 September, US Soybeans was 3% harvested vs. 3% a year ago. • According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 16 September, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. • ICE Canola prices closed lower yesterday.

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Soybean Arrivals for 25 September 2014 Location

MT

Dahod

6.50

Sankeshwar

72.00

Akodia

52.00

Badnagar

749.00

Badnawar

200.00

Betul

3.80

Chhindwara

0.90

Ganjbasoda

74.10

Haatpipliya

16.60

Harsood

2.70

Itarsi

3.00

Mandsaur

150.00

Pipariya

9.70

Rajgarh

11.50

Sailana

6.20

Ujjain

202.00

Amarawati

0.40

Chikali

7.30

Deoulgaon

0.10

Karanja

30.00

Nagpur

4.00

Nizamabad

0.80

Source - Dept. of Agriculture (GoI)

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Rape/mustard Seed Mustard seed futures traded on a mixed note on Thursday supported by mustard meal export demand and declining arrival pressure. However, prices corrected from higher levels on profit taking and settled unchanged. Mustard meal export increased 16.13% to 105,375 tn in Aug ’14 compared to 90,735 tn in Aug’13. Sowing of mustard seed in 2013-14 stood at 7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Agriculture ministry in its 4th advance estimates has pegged 201314 mustard output at 7.96 mn tn, down 0.85% compared to 8.03 mn tn in 2012-13.

Jeera Jeera Oct futures traded on a negative note on Thursday and made a new contract low of Rs. 10420 on sluggish demand and huge carryover stocks. However, prices recovered from lower levels on short coverings and settled marginally higher 0.14%. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944 tn between Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board) According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013-14 is expected around 45-50 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.

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This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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