Commodity report ways2capital 23 may 2016

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31MAY 2016

111.05

108.95

106.85

105.50

104.75

103.40

102.65

100.55

98.45

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

326.60

321.05

315.55

312

310.10

306.50

304.55

299.10

293.60

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3537

3454

3371

3326

3288

3243

3205

3122

3039

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

30389

30172

29955

29823

29738

29606

29521

29304

29087

LEAD

31MAY 2016

120.80

118.30

115.80

114.25

113.30

111.75

110.80

108.30

105.80

NATURAL GAS

27 JUN 2016

161.50

157.50

153.50

151.40

149.50

147.40

145.50

141.50

137.50

NICKEL

31MAY 2016

611.80

599.70

587.60

579.90

575.50

567.80

563.40

551.30

539.20

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

41287

40821

40355

40094

39889

39628

39423

38957

38491

ZINC

31MAY 2016

131.50

129.65

127.80

126.65

125.95

124.80

124.10

122.25

120.40

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31MAY 2016

114.90

111.35

107.80

105.95

104.25

102.40

100.70

97.15

93.60

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

333.35

325.40

317.45

312.90

309.50

305

301.55

293.60

285.65

CRUDE OIL

20 JUN 2016

3713

3564

3415

3348

3266

3199

3117

2968

2819

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

31799

31153

30507

30099

29861

29453

29215

28569

27923

LEAD

31MAY 2016

128.50

123.70

118.90

115.75

114.10

111

109.30

104.50

99.70

NATURAL GAS

27 JUN 2016

174

165.30

156.60

153

147.90

144.30

139.20

130.50

121.80

NICKEL

31MAY 2016

632.50

614.20

595.90

584

577.60

565.70

559.30

541

522.70

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

45938

44064

42190

41012

40316

39138

38442

36568

34694

ZINC

31MAY 2016

134

131.25

128.45

127

125.65

124.15

122.85

120.05

117.25

Monday, 23 May 2016


WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL ZINC MAY BELOW 123.95 TGT 120.90 SL 126.15 BUY GOLD AUG ABOVE 30130 TGT 30430 SL 29897

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY GOLD JUN ABOVE 30200 TGT 30500 SL 29900 - SL BUY CRUDEOIL JUN ABOVE 3200 TGT 3300 SL 3094 - TGT

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 MAY 2016

68.15

67.95

67.75

67.65

67.50

67.45

67.30

67.10

66.90

EURINR

27 MAY 2016

76.90

76.55

76.15

76

75.75

75.60

75.40

75

74.65

GBPINR

27 MAY 2016

99.55

99.15

98.80

98.65

98.40

98.25

98.05

97.70

97.30

JPYINR

27 MAY 2016

62

61.80

61.55

61.40

61.30

61.15

61.05

60.85

60.60

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 MAY 2016

69.7 0

68.90

68.10

67.85

67.30

67.05

66.55

65.75

64.95

EURINR

27 MAY 2016

77.2 5

76.75

76.25

76.05

75.75

75.55

75.30

74.80

74.30

GBPINR

27 MAY 2016

106. 15

103.35

100.55

99.50

97.70

96.70

94.90

92.10

89.30

JPYINR

27 MAY 2016

63.3 5

62.65

62

61.60

61.30

60.95

60.65

59.95

59.25

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR MAY ABOVE 98.30 TGT 99.30 SL 97.30 SELL JPYINR MAY BELOW 61.16 TGT 60.70 SL 61.70 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL BUY JPYINR MAY ABOVE 61.70 TGT 62.10 SL 61.40 - NOT EXECUTED. BUY EURINR MAY ABOVE 76 TGT 76.40 SL 75.60 - NOT EXECUTED.


✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUN 2016

650

646

642

640

638

636

634

630

626

SYBEANIDR

20 JUN 2016

4161

4095

4029

4002

3963

3936

2897

3831

3765

RMSEED

20 JUN 2016

4526

4486

4446

4428

4406

4388

4366

4326

4286

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUN 2016

17155

16980

16805

16705

16630

16530

16455

16280

16105

CHANA

20 JUN 2016

6078

6018

5958

5926

5898

5866

5838

5778

5718

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUN 2016

708

686

664

651

642

629

620

598

576

SYBEANIDR

20 JUN 2016

4496

4323

4150

4063

3977

3890

3804

3631

3458

RMSEED

20 JUN 2016

4703

4609

4515

4463

4421

4369

4327

4233

4139

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUN 2016

18170

17635

17100

16850

16565

16310

16030

15495

14965

CHANA

20 JUN 2016

6630

6392

6154

6024

5916

5786

5678

5440

5202

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL JEERA JUN BELOW 16200 TGT 15800 SL 16600 SELL GUARSEED JUN BELOW 3070 TGT 3000 SL 3151 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL CHANA JUN BELOW 5800 TGT 5700 SL 5902 - NOT EXECUTED. BUY JEERA JUN ABOVE 17000 TGT 17300 SL 16698 - NOT EXECUTED.


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ Bullion Gold prices fell by 0.19 per cent on Friday as market players continued to price in the improved chances of multiple rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year following hawkish comments from the US central bank on the likelihood of a June rate hike. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in the minutes from its April meeting that it will likely raise short-term rates at its next meeting in June if the economy continues to improve as expected. Gold futures for June 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs. 29,740 per 10 grams, down by 0.19 per cent after opening at Rs. 29,718 against the previous closing price of Rs. 29,797. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 29,698 till the trading. (At 12.40 PM today). However, a weaker dollar raised the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. Weaker greenback makes the bullion cheaper for those holding other currencies, thus increasing demand.Downward pressure briefly increased after U.S. data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment aid fell last week, the latest sign that the economy was regaining speed after stumbling in the first quarter. The U.S. central bank will likely raise interest rates next month if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as firming inflation and employment, according to minutes from the U.S. central bank's April policy meeting. The indications followed a Fed policymaker's comment on Tuesday he would push for an interest rate hike in June or July, and two other Fed officials, who predicted up to three rate increases this year Last week spot silver prices declined by 3.4 percent to close at $16.5 per barrel. The fall in silver prices is in line with declined in gold prices and fall in the base metals complex.Silver futures were trading higher during noon trade in the domestic market on Friday tracking a bullish trend in the global market as the sharp losses in the previous session amid bets of a Fed rate hike in June, offered a good bargain buying opportunity, to traders, in the precious metal, at existing levels. New York Fed President William Dudley stressed that the world’s top central bank is moving closer to tightening interest rates at one of its two upcoming meetings while Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker also called for higher interest rates. Silver, a non-interest bearing asset, loses sheen during a rising interest rate scenario. At the MCX, Silver futures for July 2016 contract is trading at Rs. 39,910 per Kg, up by 0.22 per cent, after opening at Rs. 39,773, against a previous close of Rs 39,824. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 39,945

✍Energy Crude oil prices rose by 1.16 per cent on Friday on a rebound from overnight losses with US rig count data later in the day expected to set the tone. At the MCX, crude oil futures for May 2016 contract were trading at Rs. 3,317 per barrel, up by 1.16 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,291 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,279. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 3,326 till the trading. (At 12.15 PM today). Prices rose as turmoil in Nigeria, shale bankruptcies in the United States and crisis in Venezuela all contributed to tightening supplies. Despite this, brimming inventories across the world were preventing supply shortfalls and sharper price spikes, traders said. ANZ bank said that unexpected supply disruptions across the world, excluding output falls in the United States, amounted to around 2.5 million barrels of daily production, virtually erasing a production overhang that had pulled down prices by over 70 percent between 2014 and early 2016.The prospect of a U.S. rate increase in June prompted investors earlier on Thursday to cash out of long positions in Brent and U.S. crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. Suncor extended a force majeure that will prevent any more shipping of oil this


month from its Syncrude facility. The decision came amid a raging wildfire in Canada's oil sands region that has shut output capacity by more than 1 million barrels per day. In Nigeria, ExxonMobil said operations at its Qua Iboe crude oil terminal were disrupted by "criminal" activity, although the plant was still producing. Natural Gas futures fell in the domestic market during noon trade on Friday as investors and speculators exited positions in the energy commodity as rising US supplies signaled weak demand for the power plant fuel in the world’s biggest gas consuming nation. The EIA on Thursday said that US gas stockpiles climbed by 73 billion cubic feet to 2.754 trillion cubic feet in the week ended May 13, 2016. Total gas storage in the US is 28.8 per cent higher than the levels a year ago and 28.9 per cent above the five-year average. At the MCX, Natural gas futures for June 2016 contract were trading at Rs.138 per mmBtu, down by 0.22 per cent, after opening at Rs. 136.8, against the previous closing price of Rs. 138.3. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 136.10 till the trading.

�Base Metal Copper prices declined by 0.5 percent last week to close at $4578 per tonne as latest FOMC minutes showed the central bank was likely to raise rates in June if economic data pointed to stronger secondquarter growth and firmer inflation and employment. Further, Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to -1.8 in May, weighed on the recovery in the manufacturing sector.Copper prices rose by 0.64 per cent on Friday after the number of residential building permits granted in Germany jumped by nearly a third to over 84,000 in the first three months of 2016, boosting expectations that construction will continue to support growth in Europe's largest economy which raised the demand outlook for the industrial metal. The Federal Statistics Office said authorities issued permits for 72,335 new residential buildings and approved construction work at 12,454 existing buildings. At the MCX, copper futures for June 2016 contract were trading at Rs.312.70 per 1 kg, up by 0.64 per cent, after opening at Rs. 310.95 against the previous closing price of Rs. 310.70. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 313.65 till the trading. (At 4.45 PM today). Prices also rose due to the decline in the copper stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME copper stocks fell by 2875 metric tonnes to 155725 metric tonnes as on May 20, 2016. Nickel futures surged in the domestic market during evening trade on Friday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel from alloy-makers in the domestic spot market. Upbeat US economic data also signaled improved demand prospects for the industrial metal in the world’s biggest economy. US jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 278,000 last week, a sign that the US labour market recovery remains intact while a leading index climbed 0.6 per cent in April from the previous month, data showed on Thursday. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2016 contract were trading at Rs.580.50 per 1 kg, up by 0.29 per cent, after opening at Rs. 579.20, against the previous closing price of Rs. 578.80. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 583.30 till the trading Zinc futures rose by 1.12 per cent to Rs 126.75 per kg today due to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 600 metric tonnes to 386750 metric tonnes as on May 20, 2016. Zinc futures for May 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 126.75 per kg, up by 1.12 per cent after opening at Rs. 125.35 against the previous closing price of Rs. 125.35. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 127 till the trading. (At 4.10 PM today). Prices also rose as speculators raised positions in the midst of a strong trend globally. Besides, strong demand in domestic spot markets fueled the uptrend. Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS  India Meteorological Department said on Monday the late arrival of the monsoon will not delay crop sowing and that rains are expected to make rapid progress after their arrival around June 7. Monsoon rains, the lifeblood for agriculture-dependent India, typically arrive on the southern tip of Kerala state by around June 1 and cover the entire country by mid-July. On Sunday the IMD said the monsoon would arrive by June 7. Pre-monsoon showers will set the stage for sowing and rains are expected to gather momentum once monsoon arrives by June 7. Millions of farmers plant rice, cane, corn, cotton and soybean crops in the rainy months of June and July. Harvesting starts from October. The monsoon season delivers about 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall. It is critical for the country's 263 million farmers because nearly half of their farmland lacks irrigation. Bountiful rains could keep a lid on inflation and also encourage the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates after the central bank in April eased its repo rate by 25 basis points to its lowest in more than five years.  United Nation's International Fund for Agricultural Development ( IFAD ) will provide grants worth $150 million (about Rs 1,001 crore) to India in the next three years to aid the farm sector, a top official said. The Rome-based agency has been working in India since 1978. It has provided $17.7 billion in grants and low-interest loans to projects reaching about 45.9 crore people in rural areas to reduce poverty. We see that the projects take longer time to run, around 16 months on an average. That affects the performance of the overall project. We understand the reasons why this happens, because we are working in remote areas where sometimes the state capacity is not that strong. The agency has shared the concern with the government, and both of them are working collectively on the issue. Garcia said IFAD wants to make sure that benefits of its interventions in the rural areas remain once the projects are over to ensure sustainability of the work. The Lead Evaluation Officer, IOE, IFAD Fabrizio Felloni said there is a need for better linkages of farm produces with markets that will improve the efficiency and make households self sufficient. The agency is also introducing technological solutions so that farmers can fetch better prices of their produces, he said. On the recurring drought conditions in India, there is a need for more sustainable use of water resources in rural areas as well as more conscious approach towards natural resources management.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 0.36 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for June 2016 contract closed at Rs. 16,630 per quintal, up by 0.36 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,570 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,570. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 16,730.Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries. As per third advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.13 lt higher by about 7% forecasted in revised fourth advance estimate of 1.97 lt. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt. According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 11 month of 2015-16 (Apr-Feb) is 78,965 tonnes compared to 1.46 lt exported last year same period. The exports for 2015-16 shows a declining trend compared to last year. Devaluation of currencies in the buying countries and appreciation of Indian currency combined with high prices have led to a steep decline in jeera exports in 2015-16.

✍ Chana Chana prices closed lower by 0.64 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited


(NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for June 2016 contract closed at Rs. 5,890 per quintal, down by 0.64 per cent, after opening at Rs. 5,920 against the previous closing price of Rs. 5,928. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 5,871. India has imported 9.93 lt of Chana until February in the current financial year (Apr 2015-Feb 2016). In Feb 2016, country imported over 79,000 lt of chana higher than 38,000 tones imports last year in Feb. To boost supply and bring down rates Centre asked state governments not to levy local taxes like VAT and mandi fees on dals, besides taking stern action against hoarders. Earlier, agri-commodity bourse NCDEX hiked the cash margin to 45% on chana (gram) buyers and 10% on sellers to curb speculation ✍ Soyabean Soybean futures jumped on Friday on reports that government is considering narrowing import duty of crude and refine oil. However, lower crushing demand by oil mills may weigh on prices if monsoon arrives as predicted. Soybean Jun’16 contract closed 1.27% higher to settle at Rs. 3,976 per quintal. USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.70 mt, up 58% from last year. The increase is based on the assumption of normal yields. In 2015-16, SOPA forecast production at 69.29 lt but government in third estimate forecasts 89.2 lt. Global update CBOT soybean futures closed mixed on Friday, driven by a surge in July soymeal. Soymeal futures rose on concerns about the size and quality of the soybean crop in Argentina, the world's biggest soymeal exporter, following excessive rains last month. According to the WASDE report, U.S soybean production for 2016/17 is projected at 103.4 mt, down 0.35 mt from the previous year on lower harvested area and yields. US Soybean exports are forecast at 51.3 mt, up 3.95 mt from the revised 2015/16 projection. However, global soybean production in 2016/17 forecast to rise to a record 324 mt. Refined soy oil futures recover of Friday on reports of import duty rise for refine oil. However, overall downtrend is intact on anticipating supply glut in physical market on report of higher imports on vegetable oil. Ref Soy oil Jun’16 expiry closed 0.59 % higher to settle at Rs. 638.6/ 10 kg. There is a steady physical demand from stockists amid increase retail demand ahead of festival season. As per SEA data, lower landed cost of refined oils against crude veg oils pushed up refined oil imports by 168 % to 13.23 lt during Nov 2015 to Apr2016 period as against 4.92 lt in the same period previous year. Moreover, Import of soyoil during Apr increased by over 86 % to 3.5 lt in April from 1.87 lt in the yearago period.

✍ RM Seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.36 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for June 409 contract closed at Rs. 4,410 per quintal, up by 0.36 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,455 against the previous closing price of, Market participants’ are active at lower prices due to steady demand from stockists as arrivals may dwindle in coming weeks. Forecast of good monsoon may pressurize oilseeds on expectations that there will be bumper crop in next season. Global updates In Canada, farmers were expected to cut sowings of the rapeseed variant by 4% this year to a five-year low of 7.8m hectares due to attack of disease and pests. The EU’s rapeseed harvest will fall this summer after frost hit crops in Poland while insect damage is causing concern in France and Britain. According to latest Apr’16 USDA report, global rapeseed production is forecast to decline in 2016/17 to 66.15 mt. In 2015-16, the production is pegged at 68.23 mt.


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