Commodity research report 01 february 2016 ways2capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

ALUMINIUM

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

29 FEB 2016

107

105

104

COPPER

29 FEB 2016

321

317

314

313

311

310

309

306

303

CRUDE OIL

29 FEB 2016

2630

2516

2402

2345

2288

2231

2174

2060

1946

GOLD

05 APR 2016 27280 27089 26898 26823 26707 26632 26516 26325

26134

LEAD

29 FEB 2016 123.20 120.65 117.95 117.00 115.30 114.45 112.65 110.05

107.35

DATE

NATURAL GAS 24 FEB 2016

103.90 103.55 103.10 102.45 101.25

172

166

160

158

154

152

148

142

136

601

594

587

583

580

576

573

566

559

NICKEL

29 FEB 2016

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 35719 35380 35041 34888 34702 34549 34363 34024

ZINC

29 FEB 2016

100.15

116

33685

113

111

110

108

107

106

103

101

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

94.10

89.75

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

ALUMINIUM

EXPIRY

R4

30 SEP 2015 115.85 111.50 107.15 105.45 102.80 101.10 98.45

COPPER

29 FEB 2016

352

337

322

316

307

301

292

277

262

CRUDE OIL

29 FEB 2016

3067

2789

2511

2399

2233

2121

1955

1677

1399

GOLD

05 APR 2016 28733 28037 27341 27044 26645 26348 25949 25253

24557

LEAD

31 MAR 2016

133

126

120

118

114

112

107

101

95

NATURAL GAS

24 FEB 2016

198

182

166

161

150

145

134

118

102

NICKEL

29 FEB 2016

638

620

602

591

584

573

566

548

530

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 38233 37092 35951 35343 34810 34202 33669 32528

ZINC

29 FEB 2016

133

124

115

112

106

103

98

89

31387 80


WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL ZINC FEB BELOW 107.30 TGT 105 SL 109.40 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 26200 TGT 25900 SL 26511 - SL BUY ZINC JAN ABOVE 104 TGT 107 SL 101.90 - TGT ACHIEVED

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE

USDINR

25 FEB 2016 69.1 68.75 0

68.40

68.20

68.10

67.90

67.75

67.45

67.10

GBPINR

25 FEB 2016 75.3 74.80 0

74.30

73.95

73.80

73.45

73.30

72.80

72.30

EURINR

25 FEB 2016 99

98.30

97.65

97.35

97.05

96.70

96.40

95.75

95.10

JPYINR

25 FEB 2016 59.4 58.85 5

58.25

57.85

57.65

57.20

57

56.40

55.80

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

DATE

USDINR

25 FEB 2016 70.1 69.50 5

68.85

68.40

68.15

67.75

67.50

66.85

66.20

GBPINR

25 FEB 2016 78.7 77.20 0

75.65

74.60

74.10

73.10

72.60

71.05

69.50

EURINR

25 FEB 2016 99.9 5

99

98.05

97.55

97.10

96.60

96.10

95.15

94.20

JPYINR

25 FEB 2016 62.5 5

61

59.45

58.45

57.95

56.90

56.40

54.85

53.30

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR JAN AABOVE 97 TGT 97.50 SL 96.48 BUY EURINR JAN ABOVE 57 TGT 57.70 SL 56.30 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

L

BUY GBPINR JAN ABOVE 97.52 TGT 98.50 SL 96.89 - NOT EXECUETD.


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

633

627

621

618

615

612

609

603

597

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 3924

3860

3796

3753

3732

3689

3668

3604

3540

3998

3917

3871

3836

3790

3755

3674

3593

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 14225 13965 13705 13555 13445 13295 13185 12925

12665

RMSEED

CHANA

20 APR 20165

4079

20 APR 2016 4435

4357

4279

4230

4201

4152

4123

4045

3967

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

643

633

623

619

613

609

603

593

583

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 4117

3993

3869

3790

3745

3666

3621

3497

3373

RMSEED

20 APR 2016 4403

4226

4049

3937

3872

3760

3695

3518

3341

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 15300 14665 14025 13715 13385 13075 12745 12105

11466

CHANA

20 APR 2016 4730

4565

4400

4290

4235

4125

4070

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL BUY TMC APR ABOVE 8550 TGT 8850 SL 8240 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL REFSOYA FEB BELOW 610 TGT 600 SL 621.20 - CLOSED AT 611.95

3905

3740


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS � Bullion

Gold prices are trading on positive nota after the data released on Friday showed that U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the last quarter of 2015, expanding at an annual 0.7 percent rate, as tepid global demand weighed on exports. The data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of future U.S. rate increases, bolstering gold. Hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bet in COMEX gold to a 12-week high in the week to Jan. 26, as they also hiked a silver net long stance, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. The metal has risen more than 5 percent in January, underpinned by concerns over the world's growth outlook, especially China, which has raised questions about the pace of interest rate rises in the United States. Global equities jumped and the yen slumped after the Bank of Japan stunned markets by adopting negative interest rates, while hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of future rate hikes also underpinned stock gains and supported gold prices. The market largely shrugged off comment by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who said the Fed will be patient about policy decisions. The dollar's ascent accelerated after the release of the U.S. gross domestic product report, which was in line with economists' expectations, but showing a decline.

� Energy

US crude oil futures extended gains on Friday to take their weekly rise to more than 4% on hopes of a global deal between oil-producing countries to help tackle a growing supply glut. US crude climbed 32 cents at $33.54 a barrel as of 2338 GMT, after it settled up 92 cents, or 2.9 %, at $33.22 per barrel, down from a high of $34.82. Global benchmark Brent ended up 79 cents, or 2.4 %, at $33.89 a barrel, after trading as high as $35.84. "Despite the unlikely scenario of supply cutbacks in the oil market, prices have found some support above $30 a barrel. We believe this basis is fragile, with fundamentals expected to weaken in the coming weeks," ANZ said on Friday. "We think the likelihood of an agreement between producers is extremely low. In the absence of a supply cut, there is further downside risk to prices in the short term." Brent futures rallied as much as 8 % after Russia said on Thursday that OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia, had proposed oil production cuts of up to 5 % in what would be the first global deal in over a decade to help clear a glut of crude and prop up sinking prices "We remain highly sceptical that such a meeting will result in credible cuts in supply; thus, we see this as nothing more than an attempt to shift market sentiment, and we do not expect that it will change the physical market imbalance," Barclays said, referring to meetings between OPEC members and Russia."In our view, the price path implied by our forecasts, of Brent trading less than $40 a barrel for at least two quarters, is required for the balancing process to take place, paving the way for a more sustainable increase in prices." The rebound in the oil market lifted share prices on Wall Street and other stock markets in another rollercoaster session. European


stocks fell on disappointing earnings reports. The dollar slipped on bets that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve would be more gradual than it has suggested.

U.S. natural gas futures ended up more than 5 percent on Friday in a short covering rally on forecasts for colder weather through the middle of February that should boost heating demand. That put the front month up over 7 percent for the week for its second weekly gain in a row but down over 1 percent for the month. Both the U.S. and European weather models called for cooler weather over the next two weeks. The U.S. model called for colder than normal weather with the latest forecast at noon calling for even colder weather than earlier anticipated. Forecasts for the rest of the winter, however, look much less cold due to the warming effect of the El Nino weather pattern with February expected to be about 13 percent warmer than normal and March 17 percent warmer than normal, according to long range forecasts on Thomson Reuters Analytics.

� Base Metal

Copper rose on Friday as traders and funds expecting tighter supplies reversed their bets on lower prices, although uncertainty about Chinese demand is expected to cap gains ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China's week-long Lunar New Year holiday starts on Feb. 8. China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, estimated at around 22 million tonnes this year. The country's demand for copper is still growing but at a much slower pace than in previous years, leaving the market over supplied. But news that Freeport McMoRan has lost its right to export copper concentrate valued at more than $1 billion from one of the world's biggest mines in Indonesia has fuelled the idea of lower supplies. Freeport's six-month licence to export concentrate expired on Thursday and it was unclear how soon a new one would be issued, with the two sides yet to resolve a government demand that the U.S. company first pays a $530 million deposit. Broader markets remained firm on Friday after U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the fourth quarter as tepid global demand weighed on exports, on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not by in a hurry to raise the interest rates. Freeport Mc MoRan has lost its right to export copper concentrate valued at more than $1 billion from one of the world's biggest mines in Indonesia has fuelled the idea of lower supplies and has fuelled the upside rally in copper. Freeport's six-month licence to export concentrate expired on Thursday and it was unclear how soon a new one would be issued, with the two sides yet to resolve a government demand that the U.S. company first pays a $530 million deposit. Lead prices also surged on Friday on worries about supplies, after LME data showed one company holding between 30 percent and 40 percent of warrants and another holding between 40 percent and 50 percent.

� NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) for a full report explaining why it suspended futures in castor


seed, one of the agriculture-centric exchange’s most liquid contracts. Sebi has asked the exchange to explain what had happened in castor seed segment and what actions are being taken.Sebi is also investigating trading in other agricultural commodities including coriander.Castor seed volumes used to be around Rs 450-500 crore on most days, nearly 15 per cent of exchange’s total volume. NCDEX has said it was unable to pay mark-to-market margins when prices started falling from beginning of this month. In January, prices fell by 20 per cent. In the last one week, prices fell by some 12 per cent.The decision to suspend futures led to a controversy because last year 100 per cent margin was imposed on the castor seed futures. The margin has been increased frequently in the past few months even after regulations came under the Sebi.Brokers have protested the NCDEX decision saying those who wanted to give delivery should have been given time for that. According to sources, NCDEX decided to suspend the commodity as raising margin would not have helped if some players were not in a position to pay at current rate. The exchange is also investigating the reasons behind such high margins. The sebi, however, has taken the matter seriously. Issues like castor seed suspension and measures announced by the Sebi last week (reduction in position limits for near-month contracts and capping daily circuit limits) arising after market failed to judiciously utilize liberalisation of position limits implemented by the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) a year ago. Liberalisation in positions limits one-and-a-half year ago by the Forward Markets Commission was aimed at allowing big players like corporate/producers to hedge the requirement or output. The liberalisation was done after detailed consultation with stakeholders which followed recommendation by the risk management group headed by IIM-A professor Jayant Verma.Even netting of margin was allowed to traders having different side positions in two different maturity contracts of same commodity. Which a corporate house is understood to have used to hold highly leveraged position in castor. ✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed lower by 0.45 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for March 2016 contract closed at Rs. 13,400 per quintal, down by 0.45 per cent, after opening at Rs. 13,485 against the previous closing price of Rs. 13,460. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 13,340.

The NCDEX Jeera futures started the week on a positive note during the week that ended on 29 Jan 2016 recovering from their previous week’s fall. Short covering had resulted into recovery in the prices. However, market failed to extend its recovery, as the fundamental factors were bearish for the market. Hence, futures prices started their negative trend and witnessed volatility during the week. Futures market moved in sync with physical markets. Due to lack of buying interest from traders and exporters, spot prices remained under pressure during the week. Subdued demand from overseas buyers and limited stockiest buying at spot market also pressurized the prices. However, arrivals were declined at spot market of Unjha but overall bearish sentiments on sluggish demand pulled down the prices. Stock position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on 29 Jan 2016 is 272 MT.


✍ Mustard seed Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 1.54 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 3,825 per quintal, down by 1.54 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,868 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,885. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 3,802.

✍ Chana Chana prices fell by 0.61% to Rs 4,221 per quintal in futures trade today as participants cut down their holdings amids muted demand at domestic spot markets and persistent imports.Besides, expectations of good crop across the growing states, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh weighed on chana prices.At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for April month declined by Rs 26, or 0.61%, to Rs 4,221 per quintal with an open interest for 27,170 lots.Similarly, chana for May delivery fell by Rs 25, or 0.58% to Rs 4,280 per quintal with an open interest for 7,060 lots.Traders said besides profit-booking by speculators, subdued demand in the spot market at existing higher levels mainly led to the fall in chana prices at futures trade.During Friday’s trading session NCDEX Chana April opened negative, while traded southwards during most part of the session and ended the day on a negative note. According to data released on 28 th Jan 2016 by Agriculture Ministry, total area sown under Rabi crops as on stands to 591.51 lakh hectares against 609.31 lakh hectare in the previous year. Out of which pulses is sown under 139.08 lakh hectares against 143.01 lakh hectare in the previous year. During last 10 years average annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) of pulses is around 9.4 per cent, whic According to Madhya pradesh Agriculture Department, this year chana production will be increased to 30.54 lakh ton against 27.65 lakh ton in the previous year. Apart from Madhya pradesh it is expected t

✍ Castorseed Castorseed prices fell by 1.04 per cent on Monday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for April 2016 contract was trading at Rs. 3,345 per quintal tonnes, down by 1.04 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,391 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,380. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,340 till the trading.


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