Commodity research report 04 january 2016 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

99.25

98.15

97.05

29 FEB 2016 327. 323.30 319.60 317.90 315.80 314.20 312.10 308.30 10

304.60

DATE

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

29 JAN 2016 103. 102.55 101.45 100.90 100.35 99.80 65

19 JAN 2016 257 2544 6

2512

2496

2480

2464

2448

2416

2384

GOLD

05 FEB 2016 253 25223 25097 25029 24971 24903 24845 24719 49

24593

LEAD

29 JAN 2016 123. 121.50 119.95 119.25 118.40 117.70 116.85 115.30 05

113.75

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 164. 161.90 159.30 158.10 156.70 155.50 154.10 151.50 50

148.90

NICKEL

29 JAN 2016 606

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 338 33682 33504 33419 33326 33241 33148 32970 60

3279210

ZINC

29 JAN 2016 112. 110.50 108.50 107.50 106.50 105.50 104.50 102.50 50

100.50

599

592

588.80

585

581.80

578

571

564

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

ALUMINIUM COPPER CRUDE OIL

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

29 JAN 2016 108.7 106.05 103.40 101.90 100.75 99.20 0

S2

S3

S4

98.10 95.45

92.80

29 FEB 2016 348.3 336.90 325.60 320.90 314.20 309.60 302.90 291.50 0

280.20

2244

2130

GOLD

05 FEB 2016 26317 25888 25459 25210 25030 24781 24601 24172

23743

LEAD

29 JAN 2016 134.6 128.95 125.25 120.90 117.55 115.20 111.85 106.15 5

100.45

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 225.5 200.60 175.70 166.30 150.80 141.40 125.90 101 0 29 JAN 2016 666 636.50 607 596.30 577.50 566.80 548 518.50 NICKEL

76.10

SILVER ZINC

19 JAN 2016 2814

04 MAR 2016

2700

2586

2533

2471

2419

2358

36770 35707 34644 33989 33581 32926 32518 31455

26 JAN 2016 126.1 0

119

111.90 109.25 104.80 102.15 97.70 90.60

489 30392 83.50

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25000 TGT 24850 SL 25203

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY ZINC JAN ABOVE 103.40 TGT 105 SL 101.80 - TGT ACHEIVED

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

66.90

66.75

66.55

66.50

66.45

66.35

66.30

66.10

75.10

74.15

73.20

72.75

72.25

71.75

71.30

70.35

99.25

98.85

98.45

98.25

98.05

97.85

97.65

97.25

56.40

56.05

55.65

55.50

55.30

55.10

54.95

54.55

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

67.60

67.25

66.85

66.60

66.50

66.25

66.10

65.75

78.15

76.25

74.35

73.10

72.45

71.15

70.55

68.65

103.05 101.50 99.95

98.90

97.40

97.35

96.85

95.30

56.60

55.60

55.35

55.20

54.90

54.50

DATE

USDINR GBPINR EURINR JPYINR

27 JAN 2016 27 JA N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS 201 6 DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

DATE

USDINR GBPINR EURINR JPYINR

27 JAN 2016 27 JA N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N 27 JAN 2016 27 201 JA 6 N

56.20

55.75

WEEKLY FOREX CALL201

6 SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.20 TGT 71.40 SL 73.10

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

L

BUY JPYINR JAN ABOVE 55.15 TGT 55.65 SL 54.60 - TGT ACHEIVED BUY EURINR JAN ABOVE 73 TGT 73.70 SL 72.30 - CLOSED AT 55.34

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

627

623

619

617

615

613

611

607

603

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 4007

3957

3907

3882

3857

3832

3807

3757

3707

RMSEED

20 APR 2016 4382

4324

4266

4231

4208

4173

4150

4092

4034

18 MAR 2016 15215 14985 14765 14640 14535 14425 14310 14085

13860

CHANA

20 APR 2016 4655

4590

4525

4496

4460

4431

4395

4330

4265

CASTORSEED

19 FEB 2016 3929

3873

3817

3789

3761

3733

3705

3649

3593

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

JEERAUNJHA

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

19 FEB 2016

620

617

614

613

611

610

608

605

602

SYBEANIDR

19 FEB 2016 4241

4116

3991

3924

3866

3799

3741

3616

3491

RMSEED

20 APR 2016 4632

4492

4350

4274

4212

4134

4072

3932

3792

18 MAR 2016 16475 15785 15095 14815 14400 14125 13715 13020

12335

CHANA

20 APR 2016 4954

4782

4610

4538

4438

4366

4266

4094

3922

CASTORSEED

19 FEB 2016 4272

4113

3954

3857

3795

3698

3636

3477

3318

JEERAUNJHA

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13550 SL 14610 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14300 TGT 14000 SL 14760 - TGT ACHEIVED BUY CHANA JAN ABOVE 4970 TGT 5090 SL 4860 - NOT EXECUTED.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ PRECIOUS METAL 

China expects its energy consumption to grow in 2016, the official Xinhua news agency of the world's largest energy consumer said on Tuesday.



Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom, the world's top crude exporter, does not limit its output and has the capacity to meet additional demand, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.



U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week on a bigger-than-expected build in distillate and gasoline inventories and higher imports, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 2.5 million barrels.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 892,000 barrels to a record, EIA said. Gasoline stocks rose by 925,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 896,000-barrel gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.0 million-barrel increase, the EIA data showed.

✍ Gold Gold's image as a haven asset has taken a battering with the metal heading for its third-straight annual loss amid the sale of gold-backed funds by investors. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.2 per cent to $1,063.22 an ounce at 3:32 pm. in Singapore after declining 0.7 per cent on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.It's down 10 per cent this year following a 1.4 per cent drop in 2014 and a 28 per cent loss in 2013. Gold is in the longest slump since 2000 as the dollar surged on the back of monetary policy tightening in the US, joining a collapse in prices of commodities from iron ore to oil. Holdings in gold exchange-traded products have declined 10 times in the last 13 sessions to 1,466.45 metric tons, near the lowest in more than six years. "Gold is suffering from the general exodus out of commodity investments," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by e-mail. Being one of the most-traded commodities through ETF's, the selling pressure from paper investors has been felt particularly hard and gold's safe-haven status has suffered." Gold will face a tough challenge at the start of 2016 and prices may drop toward the $1,000 level before recovering toward $1,200 by the end of the year as the dollar and bond yields retreat, Hansen said. The first interest rate increase since 2006 took place this month and traders are now looking to the pace at which the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs in 2016. While HSBC Holdings Plc predicts just two rate increases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among banks that see four. Bullion will drop to $950 by the end of next year, according to Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., who's the top ranked precious metals

forecaster.Spot silver is also headed for a third year of declines after dropping 11 per cent in 2015. Palladium slumped 31 per cent, the most since 2008, while platinum lost 28 per cent. The two metals, used in catalytic converters that curb car and truck emissions, fell this year partly because of the Volkswagen AG emissions scandal, which hurt prospects for demand.

Gold fell on Wednesday, as the combination of a firm dollar and weak oil prices left the metal on track for its third consecutive annual loss. Bullion has lost 10 percent of its value this year, largely on concerns that higher U.S. interest rates would hurt demand for the non-yielding asset. With little market-moving data due this week, bullion traders will rely on cues from the currency and oil markets, analysts said. Following the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade this month and indications that the central bank would resort to gradual increases in 2016, the outlook for gold does not look bullish. Gold typically follows oil as the metal is often seen as a hedge against oilled inflation. Brent crude oil retreated towards 11-year lows on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's oil minister made it clear the kingdom had no plans to scale back its output. Investor interest in gold remained absent, with assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, still near a sevenyear low. Speculative short positions on COMEX gold contracts are close to an all-time high.

Gold prices fell over nine per cent in 2015, recording its third consecutive year of decline, after investors sought refuge in other asset classes, primarily equities and currencies, for higher returns. Starting the year at $1,184.86 an oz (ounce) gold remained highly volatile throughout 2015 before closing at $1,067 an oz in London. Over five per cent depreciation in the rupee against the dollar, however, cushioned domestic prices that fell 5.7 per cent to Rs 25,450 per 10 grams The pressure on gold was due to the intermittent recovery in the US economy led by a frequent drawdown in its unemployment. US Fed Chair Janet Yellen finally announced a 0.25 per cent hike in interest rate in December 2015 after deferring it for a few times during the year. But, a dovish outlook on US interest rate helped gold from falling sharply. "More than the 0.25 per cent of interest rate hike, Yellen's language on the US economy was important in terms of future rate hikes. Ideally, gold should have fallen after the interest rate hike, but, it moved in a close range which indicates that nothing can be said firmly on the US economic growth for future," said Jayant Manglik, president (retail distribution), Religare Equities. Silver followed suit due to lack of investment demand and global economic slowdown led by China. The white precious metal hit its five-year low in July 2015 following the rout in other industrial commodities. It fell 11.8 per cent to $13.86 an oz from $15.71 an oz on December 31, 2014. A strengthening US dollar added further pressure on precious metals. "Events that supported gold's fall in 2015 look to continue in 2016 with many developed economies (China, Japan and European countries) getting a booster of quantitative easing to protect them from falling," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research. Quantitative easing may further strengthen the US dollar. Since the dollar is inversely correlated with gold and silver may remain under pressure in 2016.

� Crude Oil Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Iranian diplomats had 48 hours to leave the kingdom and Iran's supreme leader said Saudi Arabia would face "quick consequences" for executing the cleric. Fearing further upheaval in the already volatile Middle East, the United States has urged regional leaders to take measures to soothe tensions. At around 0230 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in February was up 48 cents, or 1.30%, at $37.52 and Brent crude for February was trading 61 cents, or 1.64%, higher at $37.89. "Oil started the new year on the mend, as Asian markets reacted to fears that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may threaten the supply of oil," said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore. Despite the rise, Aw said however that the persistent global crude oversupply will continue to weigh down on prices over the longer term. "Unless we see a convincing drop in oil output from these two nations, and the broader oil producing community, the supply glut issue will persist, which means oil prices would remain under pressure for a longer period," he said. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last month decided against cutting output levels despite a plunge in oil prices. Iran is also a key OPEC member.

Crude prices fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday, with Brent sliding toward 11-year lows, after an unusual build in U.S. stockpiles and signs Saudi Arabia will keep adding to the global oil glut. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's largest petroleum producer, rose 2.6 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 2.5 million barrels. Stockpiles hit record highs at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for Crude prices, however, did not lose much after their initial decline on the EIA data. Some attributed that to thin, holiday-season volumes. WTI's front-month contract traded just over 240 million barrels on Wednesday, about half of levels seen two weeks ago, Reuters data showed. Crude prices began falling on Tuesday itself, retracing gains in postsettlement trade after preliminary inventory data from industry group American Petroleum Institute showed a build.

Natural gas futures fell 7 percent on Wednesday after forecasts shifted to warmer weather, cutting short a four-day rally that boosted the price of the heating fuel by more than 25 percent. Also weighing on the market were expectations that U.S. gas stockpiles remained above normal for this time of year and not far from record highs despite a strong draw forecast for last week. In the past four sessions, NYMEX's front-month contract had risen nearly 50 cents on colder weather across most of the United States after balmy conditions through much of autumn. Weather forecasts over the past week also indicated the possibility of colder temperatures in the near term that prompted speculators to bet the key winter months of January and February may have larger gas drawdowns too. Those expectation

✍ Copper Global apparent copper demand dropped 1.5%, or 250,000 tons, in the first nine months of 2015, as compared to the corresponding period last year, according to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Apparent demand fell 4% and 8% YoY in the European Union and Japan, respectively, in the first nine months of the year. Apparent demand in the Americas rose 1.5% over this period.

Copper held steady on Wednesday, but expectations of surplus metal and weak demand in top consumer China mean prices look likely to come under further pressure over coming sessions.

Copper hit a 6-1/2 year low below $4,450 last month. China accounts for nearly half of global copper consumption estimated at 23 million tonnes this year.The ICSG provides a consolidated estimate for the Americas. According to the ICSG, Chinese apparent copper demand rose 0.5% YoY in the first nine months of the year. With the exclusion of China, global apparent copper demand fell 3.5% over this period. The ICSG estimated that China’s apparent copper demand in fiscal 2015 would be similar to last year’s level.

✍ Lead Tracking a weak trend at domestic spot market on subdued demand, lead fell 0.38% to Rs 118.75 per kg in futures trade today as traders trimmed their holdings. In futures trading at Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month contracts shed 45 paise or 0.38% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a business turnover of 293 lots. Also, metal for delivery in January contracts fell 40 paise or 0.34% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a turnover of 103 lots .Analysts said that subdued demand from battery-makers and other consuming industries at the domestic spot market, mainly kept pressure on lead futures prices here but firmness in base metal pack at the London Metal Exchange capped the losses.

✍ Nickel Supported by a firming trend overseas, nickel prices jumped 0.50% to Rs 577.60 per kg in futures trading today as participants widened their positions. Besides, rising demand at domestic spot markets from alloy-makers also gave support. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month rose Rs 2.90, or 0.50%, to Rs 577.60 per kg in a business turnover of 1,169 lots. The metal for delivery in January also gained Rs 2.40, or 0.41%, to trade at Rs 583.50 per kg in 866 lots. Marketmen said a firming trend in the base metal pack at the London Metal Exchange (LME) amid speculation that demand conditions in China may stabilise into next year as some producers start to scale back output to stem losses and cut costs and pick up in domestic demand, mainly led to the rise in nickel futures here.

✍ Aluminium Aluminium prices fell by 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in futures trade today after traders reduced their exposure amid muted domestic demand even as the metal strengthened at the London Metal Exchange. At Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in current month eased 30 paise or 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in a business turnover of 99 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in January 2016 contracts traded lower by 30 paise or 0.29% to Rs 101.85 per kg in 53 lots. Marketmen said the weakness in aluminium in futures trade is mostly due to sluggish demand from consuming industries at the domestic market but metal's gain overseas limited the losses.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ New crop insurance Initiatives Crop insurance will be more attractive and farmer friendly after a new crop insurance scheme early next year. Apart from extending scope and coverage in terms of area, crops and risk, the aim is to ensure premium rates that states and farmers have to pay comes down.The minister said dependence on digital technology — drones and satellites— would increase to map farmland. The agriculture ministry has launched a pilot study for mapping farmland using space technology and geospatial technology that will help improve crop yield estimation and settle insurance claims faster. Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC) is undertaking the pilot of the initiative called KISAN+ in four districts in Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra during kharif 2015 season, and eight districts in the same states during rabi 2015-16 season. KISAN+ project plans to use multi-parameter modelling for block level yield estimation. At some sample locations, unmanned aerial vehicle and drones will collect images.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices rose 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal in futures trading on turesday as participants built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in domestic as well as export demand in the spot market.Besides, tight stocks on restricted supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend.

At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in January 2016 rose

by Rs 135, or 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal with an open interest of 8,613 lots.Similarly, the spice for delivery in March contracts gained Rs 110, or 0.78% to Rs 14,275 per quintal in 3,399 lots.Rise in jeera futures prices to fresh positions built up by traders amid pick up domestic as well as export demand in the spot market.

Jeera Jan futures opened lower continuing its previous fall on improved sowing activities in Gujarat. However, negative movement was limited on late covering of positions and closed the trade at Rs. 14095 per quintal, down by 0.2 % from its previous trade. Jeera Spot prices at bench mark market of Unjha traded in range of Rs.14700-15055/quintal. Pick up in sowing activities in Gujarat after weather conditions turning suitable for sowing also weighed on the market. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at 46700 tonnes lower by almost half of 89772 tonnes exported during same period in 2014. Stock position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on 28th December is 2628 MT.

✍ Turmeric Turmeric April futures lower, traded lower initially on weak supply demand factors in the market. However, negative movement was short lived, as short covering pulled the prices upward. Hence, turmeric April contract traded and ended the day down at Rs 9974 per quintal, higher by 0.73% from its previous trade. On spot market front at Erode market the prices were, for finger variety Rs.9500-9700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 200 and Bulb variety traded steady in range of Rs. 9400-9600 per quintal. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at 46500 tonnes higher by 2094 tonnes from 44406 tonnes exported during same period in 2014. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3629 tons as on 28th December 2015.

✍ Mustard seed Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.77 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,256 per quintal, down by 0.77 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,270 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,289. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 4,210. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.

✍ Coriander Coriander Jan futures reached yet another lower circuit during previous trade on hopes of rapid pick up in sowing activity in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jan futures traded at Rs. 7942 per quintal, 6% lower from its previous close. Spot market took negative cues from futures market and traded lower. At Kota spot, Eagle variety traded steady at Rs. 9300 per quintal and Badami variety traded at Rs. 8700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 300 on negative cues from the spot market.

According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at 22650 tonnes lower by 6% from volume during same period in 2014. As on 28th Dec 2015, 19881 MT of valid stock is available in the NCDEX approved warehouses.

� Chana Chana prices closed lower by 0.04 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,805 per quintal, down by 0.04 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,812 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,807. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,794.

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