Commodity research report 04 july 2016 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 JUL 2016

114.80

113.80

112.70

112.25

111.65

111.20

110.60

109.60

108.50

COPPER

31 AUG 2016

359.40

350.10

340.80

337

331.50

327.70

322.20

312.90

303.60

CRUDE OIL

19 JUL 2016

3472

3404

3336

3303

3268

3235

3200

3132

3064

GOLD

05AUG 2016

32437

32102

31767

31615

31432

31280

31097

30762

30427

LEAD

29 JUL 2016

135.15

131.40

127.65

126.35

123.90

122.60

120.20

116.40

112.70

NATURALGAS

26 JUL 2016

215.80

210

204.20

201.70

198.40

195.90

192.60

186.80

181

NICKEL

29 JUL 2016

760.60

727.80

695

683.10

662.20

650.30

629.40

596.60

563.80

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

49637

47733

47068

45829

45164

43925

42021

40117

ZINC

29 JUL 2016

151.80

147.95

146.15

144.10

142.30

140.25

136.40

132.55

51541

155.65

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 JUL 2016

121.20

117.75

114.30

113

110.90

109.60

107.40

104

100.50

COPPER

31 AUG 2016

371.80

357.90

343.90

338.50

330

324.60

316

302.10

288.10

CRUDE OIL

19 JUL 2016

3927

3702

3477

3374

3252

3149

3027

2802

2577

GOLD

05 AUG 2016

33271

32662

32053

31758

31444

31149

30835

30226

29617

LEAD

29 JUL 2016

150

140.70

131.40

128.20

122.10

118.90

112.80

103.50

94.20

NATURALGAS

26 JUL 2016

251.90

132.70

213.50

206.30

194.30

187.10

175.10

155.90

136.70

NICKEL

29 JUL 2016

838

776.20

714.40

692.70

652.60

630.90

590.80

529

497.20

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

56565

52777

48989

47696

45201

43908

41413

37625

33837

ZINC

29 JUL 2016

172.45

162.30

152.15

148.25

142

138.10

131.85

121.70

111.55

Monday, 04 July 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL NATURAL GAS J UL B ELOW 189 TGT 183 SL 195 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL B UY ZINC J UL AB OVE 137.50 TGT 140.50 SL 134.50 - TGT ACHEIVED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 JUL 2016

68.20

68

67.85

67.70

67.65

67.55

67.45

67.30

67.10

EURINR

27 JUL 2016

76.20

75.85

75.50

75.35

75.15

75

74.80

74.50

74.10

GBPINR

27 JUL 2016

93

92.05

91.10

90.60

90.20

89.65

89.30

88.35

97.40

JPYINR

27 JUL 2016

66.75

66.50

66.20

66.05

65.90

65.80

65.65

65.35

65.10

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 JUL 2016

70.4 0

69.55

68.70

68.15

67.85

67.30

67

66.20

65.35

EURINR

27 JUL 2016

77.7 5

76.95

76.15

75.70

75.30

74.85

74.50

73.70

72.85

GBPINR

27 JUL 2016

97.3 0

95.10

92.85

91.45

90.65

89.20

88.40

86.20

83.95

JPYINR

27 JUL 2016

72.4 0

70.45

68.45

67.20

66.50

65.20

64.50

62.50

60.55

WEEKLY FOREX CALL B UY JPYINR J UL ABOVE 66.32 TGT 67.12 SL 66.02 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL US DINR J UL B ELOW 67.88 TGT 67.30 SL 68.51 - MA DE LOW OF 67.5850

✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2016

657

653

649

647

645

643

641

637

633

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2016

4123

4028

3933

3888

3838

3793

3743

3648

3553

RMSEED

19 AUG 2016

4970

4935

4900

4880

4865

4845

4830

4795

4760

JEERAUNJHA

19 AUG 2016

20025

19350

18685

18255

18015

17585

17345

16470

16000

TMC

20 JUL 2016

8500

8450

8400

8350

8300

8250

8200

8150

8100

GUARSEED

20 JUL 2016

3350

3320

3290

3260

3230

3200

3170

3140

3110

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

679

668

657

651

646

640

635

624

613

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2016

4371

4183

3995

3919

3807

3731

3619

3431

3243

RMSEED

19 AUG 2016

5168

5059

4950

4905

4841

4796

4732

4623

4514

JEERAUNJHA

19 AUG 2016

21075

20095

19100

18465

18125

17485

17135

16155

15168

TMC

20 JUL 2016

8800

8650

8500

8400

8290

8180

8080

7970

7850

GUARSEED

20 JUL 2016

3450

3390

3340

3290

3240

3190

3140

3100

3050

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL RM S EED J UL B ELOW 4729 TGT 4648 SL 4811 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL GUARS EED J UL B ELOW 3050 TGT 2950 SL 3151 - NOT EXECUTE D.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS  SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood  Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded- fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10374.41 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.  Silver's price charts are signalling further gains after it rallied to near two- year highs on Friday on a combination of rebounding appetite for industrial assets, and rising demand for bullion after last week's shock Brexit vote.  After the Philippines became the top supplier of nickel ore to China in the last two years, its struggling mining industry may have felt like it was turning a corner. But hope in the industry of getting an easier ride exploiting minerals in a country with a stro ng anti- mining lobby now looks misplaced with the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte sending tough messages on mining.

✍BULLION Gold prices continued to trade higher in Asian trading hours on Monday with spot COMEX prices trading at $1347/ounce after hitting an early morning high of $1357.5/ounce. Earlier prices ended higher by 1.45 % on Friday on expectations of accommodative monetary policies around the world. In US data released last Friday, the ISM manufacturing PMI for June came in at 53.2, above forecast of 51.3, while the final manufacturing PMI for June was at 51.3 , slightly lower than market consensus of 51.4 Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.41 percent to 953.91 tonnes on Friday, the highest since July 2013. Gold speculator and large futures traders continued to push their gold bullish positions higher last week for a fourth consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday . The noncommercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +301,920 contracts in the data reported through June 28th. This was a weekly change of +9,191 contracts from the previous week’s total of +292,729 net contracts that was registered on June 21st.Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer. The gold-silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to its lowest in 13 months at 70.4. Weakness in the dollar index and investor appetite for safe assets remained strong because of longerterm financial uncertainty after Britain's surprise vote to leave the European Union. On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.2 percent to close at Rs.31463 per 10 gms last week.

✍ENERGY Natural gas extended its rally during the week ended on 1st July 2016 on hot weather forecast across US supported by decline in inventories.NYMEX natural gas prices rose by 1.4 percent on Thursday to close at $2.89 per MMbtu while MCX gas prices rose by 2.02 percent to close at Rs.197.30 per MMbtu. The injection season continue to gather pace with addition of inventories, although incremental demand for gas remains a cause of concern.

Crude oil futures traded on a positive note on last Friday recouping from earlier losses.

Tightening global crude oil market supported the crude oil futures to end the week on a positine note. Nymex WTI crude oil futures for Aug delivery closed the day at $49.28 per barrel while MCX crude oil futures for July expiry settled at Rs. 3271 per barrel.oil prices rose by 2.8 percent last week to close at $49 per barrel Fading concerns over the so-called Brexit, potential for an oil workers' strike in Norway and a crisis in Venezuela's energy sector were among factors supporting Wednesday's rally. Production in Nigeria has risen to about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.6 million, due to repairs and a lack of new major attacks on pipelines in the Delta region, the state oil company said on Monday. OPEC's oil output rose in June to its highest in recent history, a Reuters survey showed, as Nigeria's output partially recovers from militant attacks and Iran and Gulf members boost supplies.

✍BASE METAL Growth in China's manufacturing sector stalled in June, an official survey showed on Friday, adding to expectations that Beijing will have to roll out more stimulus soon to boost the sluggish economy Asian shares shrugged off early losses and edged higher on Monday, while the Australian dollar was under pressure after no clear winner emerged from a weekend election. The new Philippine mining ministe r, a committed environmentalist, announced plans on Friday to review all mines operating in the country, the biggest supplier of nickel ore to China. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Friday that, the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer after the shock of last week's decision by voters to leave the European Union.

Copper prices gained by 1.13% and ended at $4,905.50/MT at LME and gained by 0.77% at MCX and ended its day at Rs.333.60/kg. Copper Stocks declined by 1.25% while cancelled warrants also declined by 5.20% which had a mixed impact on prices. Adani planning to establish a copper smelter with $1.5 billion in western state of Gujarat.China may add 4% refined copper production at a slower pace than in 2015 and also planning to increase the global supply by 2020 to 43.5%. Peru’s shipment in first 3 months of China’s copper surged 93% of total imports crossing Chile.Further, data from the London Metal Exchange showed mo ney managers had reduced their short position in copper to just over 86,600 lots on Friday, down from 107,600 lots a week before.

Nickel prices gained by 5.47% and ended its trading at $9,935/MT at LME and at MCX it gained 5.04% and traded at Rs.671.10/kg. Nickel Stocks went up by 0.06% and cancelled warrants also went up by 4.18%, this had a mixed impact on prices. LME nickel prices touched 2 months high on Friday. Nickel ETF strengthened after Philippines ordered to review its existing mines and its effects .

Aluminium prices yesterday gained by 0.67% on LME ending its day at $1,658/MT and gained by 0.40% at MCX it was flat; ending its day at Rs.111.75/kg. Aluminum, Stocks declined by 0.24% and cancelled warrants also declined by 0.61%, which has mixed impact on prices. For aluminium, there was support as industrial firms in China increased their purchases of the metal in liquid form, creating a shortage of ingots, the form of the metal which drives prices.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS  Monsoon update - Monsoon has come down to 9 per cent after several parts of the country received a good amount of rainfall. From June 1 to July 2, the country has received 164.9 mm of rainfall against the normal limit of 180 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, adding that the situation is expected to improve as good rainfall is predicted in July, August and September. But the rainfall deficiency in east and northeast India has risen to 28 per cent as the region has received only

274 mm of rainfall as against the normal limit of 381 mm, the agency said. According to the IMD, monsoon deficiency in central India is around 12 per cent. Per the department’s predictions, other parts of the country are expected to receive good rainfall but the east and northeast and parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to get less precipitation.

 The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is preparing to approach the capital markets regulator for permission to relaunch its castor seed contracts suspended five months ago. The agri-commodity- focused exchange is also planning to increase its share in metal commodities trading.In January, NCDEX suspended castor seed contracts expiring in February and beyond, suspecting manipulation and concentration of trades. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) demanded an explanation and in a 2 March interim order, barred 16 entities—including four trading members and their defaulting clients—from accessing markets for suspected fraudulent and unfair trade practices. It also ordered a forensic audit and an examination of NCDEX’s management role in the crisis.Mint reported on 23 May that NCDEX had hired chartered accountants Mukund M. Chitale and Co. to conduct the forensic audit. NCDEX is one of the two leading national commodity exchanges in India. However, it has just around 10.61% of average monthly turnover, dominated by larger rival Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd (MCX). Sebi’s April 2016 bulletin said that the total turnover in the commodities segment for MCX was Rs.5.09 trillion in March 2016; at NCDEX it was Rs.60,417 crore.Agricultural commodities fetch 98.6% of NCDEX turnover; bullion brings 1.4%. The exchange now wants more of the metals market.Following the merger of Forward Markets Commission (FMC) with Sebi in September last year, the commodity market is hopeful of seeing new products such as options and indices.“The market regulator is mulling to allow options in commodities such as gold, silver, guar gum, and RM seed,” said one of the two people cited earlier who is familiar with the regulator’s thinking.

✍TURMERIC There is good up country demand and weak supplies in the physical market.The prices are in uptrend on reports of forecast of tight supplies and good demand from the stockists. The arrivals in the main physical markets such as Nizamabad, Duggirala (AP), Salem, Erode and Sangli reported decreasing compared to last week. Good sowing progress in Karnataka and Tamilnadu ma y pressurize prices in coming weeks. However, in Telangana, sowing is completed in only in 5,088 hectares, down by 47.6 per cent compared to last year as on 22-Jun. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in 2015-16 are pegged at 85,426 tonnes while the export for the 201415 was 90,738 tonnes for the same period. Major export destinations in 2015-16 are Iran, Malaysia, UAE, USA and Sri lanka.

Turmeric futures traded lower yesterday on extended profit booking due to heavy rainfall in turmeric growing regions. July futures closed the trade at Rs.8230/quintal, down by 0.75% similarly August futures closed down by 1.18%. However, expectations of pickup in domestic demand limited the fall for turmeric.

Turmeric at Nizamabad market traded steady at Rs.8500/ql and Rs.8000/ql for finger and bulb respectively with arrivals at 1500 bags. At Erode market, finger traded lower at Rs.8500-8700/ql while bulb traded steady at Rs.8200-8400/ql and arrivals were at around 7500 bags. Sowing in Telangana for we ek ending on 29 June 2016 was at 17784 hectares, lower compared to previous year sowing of 19582 hectares.

✍SOYABEAN & REFSOYA OIL India’s soybean output is estimated to have declined to its lowest in 11 years in the crop year 2015-16 (July– June), following two consecutive years of drought that resulted in crop damage and a steep fall in yield.Data compiled by the apex industry body, the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA), showed India’s soybean output at 7.54 million tonnes in crop year 2015-16, compared with 10.37 million tonnes in 2014-15, a decline of nearly 27 per cent. Faced with a sharp decline in output last year, soybean farmers this year eagerly await the monsoon to advance evenly throughout the country to start sowing for timely harvesting of the oilseed.The monsoon rainfalls were delayed by two weeks in some parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, India’s three major soybean producing states that contribute to nearly 80 per cent of the country’s total output.

Alarmingly, the rainfalls remained inadequate in some areas in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh to commence sowing. Farmers still await the intensity of rainfalls to increase to achieve at least normal output level this year.Soybean, a 100 per cent kharif produce, is a 90-day crop whose sowing begins with the onset of monsoon in June, for harvesting in the second half of September. But, soybean sowing has been delayed by two weeks which, traders believe, would impact yield.Data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture showed India’s soybean output at 8.7 million tonnes. The scenario looks grim for sowing and harvesting this year as well, due to delay in the monsoon rainfalls.

Soybean output is imperative to edible oil import into due to India’s heavily dependence on imported oil.

India meets around 55 per cent of 23.5 million tonnes of vegetable oil demand through imports largely from Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina.Traders, therefore, have urged the government to allow import of oilseeds duty free to make edible oilseed available for domestic crushers which they believe would benefit two ways : promote manufacturing locally and make oilmeal available for exports.India’s has lost heavily in terms of oilmeal exports due to non availability of the animal feed following lower crushing of seeds in India.

Soybean futures closed lower on Friday and trade on negative note last week tracking international soybean prices. Moreover, lower demand from millers and stockists during the end of the season. Soybean Jul’16 contract closed 2.21% down last week to settle at Rs. 3,721 per quintal. There are reports of lesser sowing area but may not affect the yield in Madhya Pradesh. There has been a delay in sowing, as the monsoon was delayed in some parts of Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra. Because of scanty rainfall received in key oilseeds growing areas of Saurashtra, Kutch, and Gujarat regions and east Madhya Pradesh, ove rall oilseeds sowing is down 47% to only 28.71 lakh hectares.

Refined soy oil futures traded on negative note last week due to profit booking by the market participants. Refine soyoil continue its range bound movement since last week due to steady demand in the physical market. Ref Soy oil Jul’16 expiry closed 0.65% down for the week to settle at Rs. 639.3/ 10 kg. Earlier, prices have been under pressure due to sufficient supplies in the physical market a nd weak physical demand, which is indicated by decline in edible oil imports last month. Moreover, sufficient stock in the physical market on report of higher imports may weigh on prices at higher levels. As per SEA data, Import of vegetable oils during May 2016 is reported at 10.25 lakh tons (lt) compared to 13.72 lt in May 2015, down by 25% due to highest stock at port and pipeline and reduced demand due to summer. Moreover, Import of soyoil during May fell to 178,064 tonnes from 289,266 tonnes compared to May 2015.

✍JEERA Good demand from China coupled with availability of quality produce has pushed jeera (cumin) exports by almost 181 per cent during the first quarter of this fiscal. Add to that, geo-political tension restricted jeera supply from Turkey and Syria, thereby making India the single most preferred source of jeera supply in the world

market.According to trade sources, India has exported about 45,000 tonnes jeera in first quarter of current financial year as against 16,000 tonnes in corresponding period of 2015.Overall exports of jeera during 2015-16 had declined to 95,000 tonnes as against 156,000 tonnes in 2014-15. This was because of lower demand and higher domestic prices of the commodity.However, traders and exporters are hopeful of better exports and expect that exports from India may cross 100,000 tonnes in 2016-17.Export demand in June gradually declined because of dull demand from Gulf countries due to Ramadan. Exporters believe that fresh jeera demand may come after end of Ramadan period.After prices of jeera had gone up to Rs 18,000 per quintal around mid-June, domestic as well as export demand has come down in June. Now prices are declining on weak demand. During last two weeks, jeera prices have reduced to Rs 16,500-17,000 per quintal. Arrival of jeera increased to 9,000 bags from 6,000 bags per day at Unjhamandi of Gujarat.

Jeera futures shaded all its previous gains during Friday’s trading session. Rise in arrivals at spot market due to the current higher rate pulled the market down. Hence, jeera active July contract traded at Rs.17530 per quintal down by 2.8%. On spot market front, at Unjha market jeera prices remained unchanged at Rs.18500 per quintal. At Unjha market of Gujarat, about 7,000-8,000 bags of jeera arrived. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3104 tonnes and 378 MT are in process as on 30 June 2016

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