✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29 JUL 2016
114.80
113.80
112.70
112.25
111.65
111.20
110.60
109.60
108.50
COPPER
31 AUG 2016
359.40
350.10
340.80
337
331.50
327.70
322.20
312.90
303.60
CRUDE OIL
19 JUL 2016
3472
3404
3336
3303
3268
3235
3200
3132
3064
GOLD
05AUG 2016
32437
32102
31767
31615
31432
31280
31097
30762
30427
LEAD
29 JUL 2016
135.15
131.40
127.65
126.35
123.90
122.60
120.20
116.40
112.70
NATURALGAS
26 JUL 2016
215.80
210
204.20
201.70
198.40
195.90
192.60
186.80
181
NICKEL
29 JUL 2016
760.60
727.80
695
683.10
662.20
650.30
629.40
596.60
563.80
SILVER
05 JUL 2016
49637
47733
47068
45829
45164
43925
42021
40117
ZINC
29 JUL 2016
151.80
147.95
146.15
144.10
142.30
140.25
136.40
132.55
51541
155.65
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29 JUL 2016
121.20
117.75
114.30
113
110.90
109.60
107.40
104
100.50
COPPER
31 AUG 2016
371.80
357.90
343.90
338.50
330
324.60
316
302.10
288.10
CRUDE OIL
19 JUL 2016
3927
3702
3477
3374
3252
3149
3027
2802
2577
GOLD
05 AUG 2016
33271
32662
32053
31758
31444
31149
30835
30226
29617
LEAD
29 JUL 2016
150
140.70
131.40
128.20
122.10
118.90
112.80
103.50
94.20
NATURALGAS
26 JUL 2016
251.90
132.70
213.50
206.30
194.30
187.10
175.10
155.90
136.70
NICKEL
29 JUL 2016
838
776.20
714.40
692.70
652.60
630.90
590.80
529
497.20
SILVER
05 JUL 2016
56565
52777
48989
47696
45201
43908
41413
37625
33837
ZINC
29 JUL 2016
172.45
162.30
152.15
148.25
142
138.10
131.85
121.70
111.55
Monday, 04 July 2016
WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL NATURAL GAS J UL B ELOW 189 TGT 183 SL 195 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL B UY ZINC J UL AB OVE 137.50 TGT 140.50 SL 134.50 - TGT ACHEIVED.
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27 JUL 2016
68.20
68
67.85
67.70
67.65
67.55
67.45
67.30
67.10
EURINR
27 JUL 2016
76.20
75.85
75.50
75.35
75.15
75
74.80
74.50
74.10
GBPINR
27 JUL 2016
93
92.05
91.10
90.60
90.20
89.65
89.30
88.35
97.40
JPYINR
27 JUL 2016
66.75
66.50
66.20
66.05
65.90
65.80
65.65
65.35
65.10
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27 JUL 2016
70.4 0
69.55
68.70
68.15
67.85
67.30
67
66.20
65.35
EURINR
27 JUL 2016
77.7 5
76.95
76.15
75.70
75.30
74.85
74.50
73.70
72.85
GBPINR
27 JUL 2016
97.3 0
95.10
92.85
91.45
90.65
89.20
88.40
86.20
83.95
JPYINR
27 JUL 2016
72.4 0
70.45
68.45
67.20
66.50
65.20
64.50
62.50
60.55
WEEKLY FOREX CALL B UY JPYINR J UL ABOVE 66.32 TGT 67.12 SL 66.02 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL US DINR J UL B ELOW 67.88 TGT 67.30 SL 68.51 - MA DE LOW OF 67.5850
✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 OCT 2016
657
653
649
647
645
643
641
637
633
SYBEANIDR
20 OCT 2016
4123
4028
3933
3888
3838
3793
3743
3648
3553
RMSEED
19 AUG 2016
4970
4935
4900
4880
4865
4845
4830
4795
4760
JEERAUNJHA
19 AUG 2016
20025
19350
18685
18255
18015
17585
17345
16470
16000
TMC
20 JUL 2016
8500
8450
8400
8350
8300
8250
8200
8150
8100
GUARSEED
20 JUL 2016
3350
3320
3290
3260
3230
3200
3170
3140
3110
✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20 JUL 2016
679
668
657
651
646
640
635
624
613
SYBEANIDR
20 OCT 2016
4371
4183
3995
3919
3807
3731
3619
3431
3243
RMSEED
19 AUG 2016
5168
5059
4950
4905
4841
4796
4732
4623
4514
JEERAUNJHA
19 AUG 2016
21075
20095
19100
18465
18125
17485
17135
16155
15168
TMC
20 JUL 2016
8800
8650
8500
8400
8290
8180
8080
7970
7850
GUARSEED
20 JUL 2016
3450
3390
3340
3290
3240
3190
3140
3100
3050
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL RM S EED J UL B ELOW 4729 TGT 4648 SL 4811 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL GUARS EED J UL B ELOW 3050 TGT 2950 SL 3151 - NOT EXECUTE D.
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded- fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10374.41 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. Silver's price charts are signalling further gains after it rallied to near two- year highs on Friday on a combination of rebounding appetite for industrial assets, and rising demand for bullion after last week's shock Brexit vote. After the Philippines became the top supplier of nickel ore to China in the last two years, its struggling mining industry may have felt like it was turning a corner. But hope in the industry of getting an easier ride exploiting minerals in a country with a stro ng anti- mining lobby now looks misplaced with the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte sending tough messages on mining.
✍BULLION Gold prices continued to trade higher in Asian trading hours on Monday with spot COMEX prices trading at $1347/ounce after hitting an early morning high of $1357.5/ounce. Earlier prices ended higher by 1.45 % on Friday on expectations of accommodative monetary policies around the world. In US data released last Friday, the ISM manufacturing PMI for June came in at 53.2, above forecast of 51.3, while the final manufacturing PMI for June was at 51.3 , slightly lower than market consensus of 51.4 Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.41 percent to 953.91 tonnes on Friday, the highest since July 2013. Gold speculator and large futures traders continued to push their gold bullish positions higher last week for a fourth consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday . The noncommercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +301,920 contracts in the data reported through June 28th. This was a weekly change of +9,191 contracts from the previous week’s total of +292,729 net contracts that was registered on June 21st.Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer. The gold-silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to its lowest in 13 months at 70.4. Weakness in the dollar index and investor appetite for safe assets remained strong because of longerterm financial uncertainty after Britain's surprise vote to leave the European Union. On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.2 percent to close at Rs.31463 per 10 gms last week.
✍ENERGY Natural gas extended its rally during the week ended on 1st July 2016 on hot weather forecast across US supported by decline in inventories.NYMEX natural gas prices rose by 1.4 percent on Thursday to close at $2.89 per MMbtu while MCX gas prices rose by 2.02 percent to close at Rs.197.30 per MMbtu. The injection season continue to gather pace with addition of inventories, although incremental demand for gas remains a cause of concern. Crude oil futures traded on a positive note on last Friday recouping from earlier losses.
Tightening global crude oil market supported the crude oil futures to end the week on a positine note. Nymex WTI crude oil futures for Aug delivery closed the day at $49.28 per barrel while MCX crude oil futures for July expiry settled at Rs. 3271 per barrel.oil prices rose by 2.8 percent last week to close at $49 per barrel Fading concerns over the so-called Brexit, potential for an oil workers' strike in Norway and a crisis in Venezuela's energy sector were among factors supporting Wednesday's rally. Production in Nigeria has risen to about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.6 million, due to repairs and a lack of new major attacks on pipelines in the Delta region, the state oil company said on Monday. OPEC's oil output rose in June to its highest in recent history, a Reuters survey showed, as Nigeria's output partially recovers from militant attacks and Iran and Gulf members boost supplies.
✍BASE METAL Growth in China's manufacturing sector stalled in June, an official survey showed on Friday, adding to expectations that Beijing will have to roll out more stimulus soon to boost the sluggish economy Asian shares shrugged off early losses and edged higher on Monday, while the Australian dollar was under pressure after no clear winner emerged from a weekend election. The new Philippine mining ministe r, a committed environmentalist, announced plans on Friday to review all mines operating in the country, the biggest supplier of nickel ore to China. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Friday that, the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer after the shock of last week's decision by voters to leave the European Union. Copper prices gained by 1.13% and ended at $4,905.50/MT at LME and gained by 0.77% at MCX and ended its day at Rs.333.60/kg. Copper Stocks declined by 1.25% while cancelled warrants also declined by 5.20% which had a mixed impact on prices. Adani planning to establish a copper smelter with $1.5 billion in western state of Gujarat.China may add 4% refined copper production at a slower pace than in 2015 and also planning to increase the global supply by 2020 to 43.5%. Peru’s shipment in first 3 months of China’s copper surged 93% of total imports crossing Chile.Further, data from the London Metal Exchange showed mo ney managers had reduced their short position in copper to just over 86,600 lots on Friday, down from 107,600 lots a week before. Nickel prices gained by 5.47% and ended its trading at $9,935/MT at LME and at MCX it gained 5.04% and traded at Rs.671.10/kg. Nickel Stocks went up by 0.06% and cancelled warrants also went up by 4.18%, this had a mixed impact on prices. LME nickel prices touched 2 months high on Friday. Nickel ETF strengthened after Philippines ordered to review its existing mines and its effects . Aluminium prices yesterday gained by 0.67% on LME ending its day at $1,658/MT and gained by 0.40% at MCX it was flat; ending its day at Rs.111.75/kg. Aluminum, Stocks declined by 0.24% and cancelled warrants also declined by 0.61%, which has mixed impact on prices. For aluminium, there was support as industrial firms in China increased their purchases of the metal in liquid form, creating a shortage of ingots, the form of the metal which drives prices.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS Monsoon update - Monsoon has come down to 9 per cent after several parts of the country received a good amount of rainfall. From June 1 to July 2, the country has received 164.9 mm of rainfall against the normal limit of 180 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, adding that the situation is expected to improve as good rainfall is predicted in July, August and September. But the rainfall deficiency in east and northeast India has risen to 28 per cent as the region has received only
274 mm of rainfall as against the normal limit of 381 mm, the agency said. According to the IMD, monsoon deficiency in central India is around 12 per cent. Per the department’s predictions, other parts of the country are expected to receive good rainfall but the east and northeast and parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to get less precipitation.
The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is preparing to approach the capital markets regulator for permission to relaunch its castor seed contracts suspended five months ago. The agri-commodity- focused exchange is also planning to increase its share in metal commodities trading.In January, NCDEX suspended castor seed contracts expiring in February and beyond, suspecting manipulation and concentration of trades. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) demanded an explanation and in a 2 March interim order, barred 16 entities—including four trading members and their defaulting clients—from accessing markets for suspected fraudulent and unfair trade practices. It also ordered a forensic audit and an examination of NCDEX’s management role in the crisis.Mint reported on 23 May that NCDEX had hired chartered accountants Mukund M. Chitale and Co. to conduct the forensic audit. NCDEX is one of the two leading national commodity exchanges in India. However, it has just around 10.61% of average monthly turnover, dominated by larger rival Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd (MCX). Sebi’s April 2016 bulletin said that the total turnover in the commodities segment for MCX was Rs.5.09 trillion in March 2016; at NCDEX it was Rs.60,417 crore.Agricultural commodities fetch 98.6% of NCDEX turnover; bullion brings 1.4%. The exchange now wants more of the metals market.Following the merger of Forward Markets Commission (FMC) with Sebi in September last year, the commodity market is hopeful of seeing new products such as options and indices.“The market regulator is mulling to allow options in commodities such as gold, silver, guar gum, and RM seed,” said one of the two people cited earlier who is familiar with the regulator’s thinking.
✍TURMERIC There is good up country demand and weak supplies in the physical market.The prices are in uptrend on reports of forecast of tight supplies and good demand from the stockists. The arrivals in the main physical markets such as Nizamabad, Duggirala (AP), Salem, Erode and Sangli reported decreasing compared to last week. Good sowing progress in Karnataka and Tamilnadu ma y pressurize prices in coming weeks. However, in Telangana, sowing is completed in only in 5,088 hectares, down by 47.6 per cent compared to last year as on 22-Jun. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in 2015-16 are pegged at 85,426 tonnes while the export for the 201415 was 90,738 tonnes for the same period. Major export destinations in 2015-16 are Iran, Malaysia, UAE, USA and Sri lanka. Turmeric futures traded lower yesterday on extended profit booking due to heavy rainfall in turmeric growing regions. July futures closed the trade at Rs.8230/quintal, down by 0.75% similarly August futures closed down by 1.18%. However, expectations of pickup in domestic demand limited the fall for turmeric. Turmeric at Nizamabad market traded steady at Rs.8500/ql and Rs.8000/ql for finger and bulb respectively with arrivals at 1500 bags. At Erode market, finger traded lower at Rs.8500-8700/ql while bulb traded steady at Rs.8200-8400/ql and arrivals were at around 7500 bags. Sowing in Telangana for we ek ending on 29 June 2016 was at 17784 hectares, lower compared to previous year sowing of 19582 hectares.
✍SOYABEAN & REFSOYA OIL India’s soybean output is estimated to have declined to its lowest in 11 years in the crop year 2015-16 (July– June), following two consecutive years of drought that resulted in crop damage and a steep fall in yield.Data compiled by the apex industry body, the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA), showed India’s soybean output at 7.54 million tonnes in crop year 2015-16, compared with 10.37 million tonnes in 2014-15, a decline of nearly 27 per cent. Faced with a sharp decline in output last year, soybean farmers this year eagerly await the monsoon to advance evenly throughout the country to start sowing for timely harvesting of the oilseed.The monsoon rainfalls were delayed by two weeks in some parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, India’s three major soybean producing states that contribute to nearly 80 per cent of the country’s total output. Alarmingly, the rainfalls remained inadequate in some areas in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh to commence sowing. Farmers still await the intensity of rainfalls to increase to achieve at least normal output level this year.Soybean, a 100 per cent kharif produce, is a 90-day crop whose sowing begins with the onset of monsoon in June, for harvesting in the second half of September. But, soybean sowing has been delayed by two weeks which, traders believe, would impact yield.Data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture showed India’s soybean output at 8.7 million tonnes. The scenario looks grim for sowing and harvesting this year as well, due to delay in the monsoon rainfalls. Soybean output is imperative to edible oil import into due to India’s heavily dependence on imported oil. India meets around 55 per cent of 23.5 million tonnes of vegetable oil demand through imports largely from Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina.Traders, therefore, have urged the government to allow import of oilseeds duty free to make edible oilseed available for domestic crushers which they believe would benefit two ways : promote manufacturing locally and make oilmeal available for exports.India’s has lost heavily in terms of oilmeal exports due to non availability of the animal feed following lower crushing of seeds in India. Soybean futures closed lower on Friday and trade on negative note last week tracking international soybean prices. Moreover, lower demand from millers and stockists during the end of the season. Soybean Jul’16 contract closed 2.21% down last week to settle at Rs. 3,721 per quintal. There are reports of lesser sowing area but may not affect the yield in Madhya Pradesh. There has been a delay in sowing, as the monsoon was delayed in some parts of Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra. Because of scanty rainfall received in key oilseeds growing areas of Saurashtra, Kutch, and Gujarat regions and east Madhya Pradesh, ove rall oilseeds sowing is down 47% to only 28.71 lakh hectares. Refined soy oil futures traded on negative note last week due to profit booking by the market participants. Refine soyoil continue its range bound movement since last week due to steady demand in the physical market. Ref Soy oil Jul’16 expiry closed 0.65% down for the week to settle at Rs. 639.3/ 10 kg. Earlier, prices have been under pressure due to sufficient supplies in the physical market a nd weak physical demand, which is indicated by decline in edible oil imports last month. Moreover, sufficient stock in the physical market on report of higher imports may weigh on prices at higher levels. As per SEA data, Import of vegetable oils during May 2016 is reported at 10.25 lakh tons (lt) compared to 13.72 lt in May 2015, down by 25% due to highest stock at port and pipeline and reduced demand due to summer. Moreover, Import of soyoil during May fell to 178,064 tonnes from 289,266 tonnes compared to May 2015.
✍JEERA Good demand from China coupled with availability of quality produce has pushed jeera (cumin) exports by almost 181 per cent during the first quarter of this fiscal. Add to that, geo-political tension restricted jeera supply from Turkey and Syria, thereby making India the single most preferred source of jeera supply in the world
market.According to trade sources, India has exported about 45,000 tonnes jeera in first quarter of current financial year as against 16,000 tonnes in corresponding period of 2015.Overall exports of jeera during 2015-16 had declined to 95,000 tonnes as against 156,000 tonnes in 2014-15. This was because of lower demand and higher domestic prices of the commodity.However, traders and exporters are hopeful of better exports and expect that exports from India may cross 100,000 tonnes in 2016-17.Export demand in June gradually declined because of dull demand from Gulf countries due to Ramadan. Exporters believe that fresh jeera demand may come after end of Ramadan period.After prices of jeera had gone up to Rs 18,000 per quintal around mid-June, domestic as well as export demand has come down in June. Now prices are declining on weak demand. During last two weeks, jeera prices have reduced to Rs 16,500-17,000 per quintal. Arrival of jeera increased to 9,000 bags from 6,000 bags per day at Unjhamandi of Gujarat. Jeera futures shaded all its previous gains during Friday’s trading session. Rise in arrivals at spot market due to the current higher rate pulled the market down. Hence, jeera active July contract traded at Rs.17530 per quintal down by 2.8%. On spot market front, at Unjha market jeera prices remained unchanged at Rs.18500 per quintal. At Unjha market of Gujarat, about 7,000-8,000 bags of jeera arrived. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3104 tonnes and 378 MT are in process as on 30 June 2016
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