Commodity research report 05 september 2017 ways2capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29- SEP-2017

138

138

137

136

135

134

133

132

131

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

454

452

450

448

446

444

442

440

438

19-SEP-17

3128

3108

3088

3068

3031

3020

2991

2971

2945

GOLD

05-OCT--2017

30850

30652

30500

30350

30128

30050

29900

29700

29555

LEAD

29- SEP-2017

155.10

154.50

153.90

153.10

152.70

152

151.2

150.50

149.80

NATURAL GAS

26-SEP-2017

202

200

198

196

194

192.10

190.10

188.20

186

NICKEL

29- SEP-2017

850

825

800

795

782

770

751

742

735

SILVER

05-JUL-2017

41800

41400

41200

40999

40600

40400

40150

39901

39700

ZINC

29- DEC-2017

208

207.10

206.50

205.90

205

203

201

199

197

CRUDE OIL

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29- SEP-2017

143

141

139

137

135

133

131

129

127

COPPER

30- JUN-2017

462

458

454

450

446

442

438

434

430

CRUDE OIL

19-SEP-17

3200

3150

3128

3088

3031

2991

2945

2900

2850

GOLD

05-OCT--2017

31251

31000

30850

30500

30128

29900

29555

29200

29000

LEAD

29- SEP-2017

157.30

156.20

155.10

153.90

152.70

151.2

149.80

149.00

148.30

NATURAL GAS

26-SEP-2017

210

206

202

198

194

190.10

186

182

180

NICKEL

29- SEP-2017

920

898.90

850

800

782

751

735

720

700.10

SILVER

05-JUL-2017

39980

39500

41800

41200

40600

40150

39700

37500

37110

ZINC

29- DEC-2017

171.50

168.50

208

206.50

205

201

197

154.90

152.10

Tuesday 05 September 2017

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-SEP-17

64.60

64.50

64.40

64.30

64.20

64.10

64.00

63.90

63.80

EURINR

27-SEP-17

77.10

76.90

76.70

76.55

76.33

76.10

75.95

75.80

75.64

GBPINR

27-SEP-17

83.77

83.55

83.33

83.21

82.99

82.80

82.60

82.40

82.20

JPYINR

27-SEP-17

60.20

59.50

59.30

58.90

58.67

58.58

58.49

58.40

58.30

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

USDINR

27-SEP-17

65.00

64.80

64.60

64.40

64.20

64.00

63.80

63.60

63.40

EURINR

27-SEP-17

77.90

77.50

77.10

76.70

76.33

75.95

75.64

75.40

75.01

GBPINR

27-SEP-17

84.33

83.99

83.77

83.33

82.99

82.60

82.20

81.80

81.40

JPYINR

27-SEP-17

61.00

60.60

60.20

59.30

58.67

58.49

58.30

58.10

57.90

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) ✍ GOLD Gold prices started the week with a huge leap forward on the back of host of supportive factors for gold at the moment. Spot gold edged higher towards $1336/ounce, highest in 42 weeks on Monday in Asia after the North Korean nuclear test over the weekend. Earlier the weaker than expected nonfarm report on Friday also lifted the gold prices. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 156 thousand in August of 2017, below a downwardly revised 189 thousand in July and lower than market expectations of 180 thousand. US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4 percent in August 2017 from 4.3 percent in the previous month and above market consensus of 4.3 percent. North Korea on Sunday conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test, which it said was of an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile, prompting the threat of a “massive” military response from the United States if it or its allies were threatened. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States stood at 96.8 in August of 2017, below the preliminary estimate of 97.6 and compared with July's final reading of 93.4.Separtaely, The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 58.8 in August of 2017 from 56.3 in July, beating market expectations of 56.5. It is the highest reading since April of 2011 Construction spending in the US unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent month-on-month to USD 1.21 trillion in July 2017, the lowest level since October 2016, following an upwardly revised 1.4 percent drop in June and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 231,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 29th. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 208,438 net contracts. The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 53,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 29th. This was a weekly gain of 9,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,546 net contracts. ✍ BASE METAL Base metals complex remained in the green zone by the time of closing of previous session; Nickel was the top gainer on Friday at LME as well as on MCX futures market. LME Copper hit its highest in three years in early Asian trading on Monday as investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust global factory growth. Factories across Asia and Europe cranked up production last month as global demand remained strong, confounding expectations growth may have peaked.  LME Nickel strike highest since June 2015, up 2.5 percent as steel and its inputs stretched a rally fuelled by expectations that China

will close capacity over winter to clear its smog-choked skies.  Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on Friday.  U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in August after two straight months of hefty increases, but the pace of gains should be more than enough for the Federal Reserve to announce a plan to start trimming a massive bond portfolio accumulated as it sought to bolster the economy.

Copper prices on Friday showed upward trajectory and went higher at MCX Future markets by 1.71% whereas at LME prices went up by 0.7%. Stocks at LME decreased by 2.17% and cancelled warrants increased massively by 3.55%.Copper hit its highest in three years in early Asian trading on Monday as investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust global factory growth.Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on Friday Nickel prices on Thursday remained the top performer on LMe as the prices gained around 1.9% at LME and moved higher by 0.7% in MCX futures market. At LME, Stocks increased by 0.67% on Thursday and cancelled warrants increased by 0.81%. Chinese rebar steel and iron ore futures gained after the manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc.

South Korea's SK Innovation said on Thursday it has started commercial production of lithium-ion batteries with an increased portion of nickel.

Aluminum prices on Friday posted gains as the prices went higher by 0.9% in LME & went up by 0.63% at MCX futures market. Stocks increased by 0.03% and cancelled warrants decreased by 0.56%. Aluminum prices have rallied this year amid burgeoning optimism about consumption in China, as well as the impact of supply-side reforms. According to the most recent data, China’s July aluminum production was at the lowest since February 2017. If we exclude February, when production was lower due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, July’s aluminum production is actually at a one-year low.China accounts for more than half of the glob Lead prices on Friday drifted higher by the closing higher at 0.04% in LME trading session and at MCX prices went up by 0.8%.  As per LME data, stocks at LME declined by 0.17% on Friday & cancelled warrants also decreased by 0.2%.  The supply side fundamentals are supporting the prices as Chinese primary lead production in the first seven months of 2017 has decreased by 6.64% y-o-y due to concentrate supply tightness. Whereas the rise in cancelled warrants last week at LME tracked warehouse shows the robust demand for the metal. Zinc prices on Friday uprehended as prices went up at MCX future market by 2.32% whereas went same in LME by 1.24%. As per LME data, stocks at LME decreased by 0.06% on Friday whereas cancelled warrants decreased by 0.11%. Chinese rebar steel gaining currently after the manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc.

Zinc’s monthly gain was the biggest in more than two years pushed by bets on tighter supplies and Chinese demand ✍ ENERGY

Choppiness in likely to continue for short term supported by shutdowns of U.S. production following Hurricane Harvey, but pressured by expected downturn in crude demand as storm knocked out refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Department of Energy reported eight U.S. oil refineries with total of 2.1 million bpd, or 11.4% of total U.S. refining capacity, were still shut down. Iran’s oil minister announcement of OPEC members' compliance with agreement to reduce output to have improved in recent months too supported prices on lower levels. Markets were nervously eyeing developments in North Korea, where military conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test over weekend, prompting threat of "massive" military response from US if it or its allies were threatened. Market participants will now shift their focus to crude oil inventories data that will be released on Thursday.

U.S. crude oil prices edged higher on Monday while gasoline prices slumped to pre-Hurricane Harvey levels, as oil refineries and pipelines in the U.S. Gulf Coast slowly resumed activity, easing supply concerns. Damage by Harvey to the oil infrastructure in the Gulf Coast appeared less extensive than some had feared. A number of major refineries, which convert crude oil to refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel, were gradually resuming operations on Monday. Colonial Pipeline, the largest American fuel system, was restarting the distillates segment of its pipeline from Texas to New Jersey. Its gasoline pipeline was due to resume operations on Tuesday, the company said. At the same time, about 5.5 percent of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico's oil production, or 96,000 barrels of daily output, remained shut on Sunday, down from a peak of more than 400,000 bpd last week. European gasoline refining margins dropped by nearly a fifth on Monday. And while the U.S. government tapped its strategic oil reserves for the first time in five years last week, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global energy watchdog saw no need for a coordinated international release of oil stocks after Harvey.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW GOLD :On the daily chart, MCX Gold prices have given a breakout above the falling channel on the daily chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold prices have been in a higher top higher bottom formation. Furthermore, prices have been sustaining above its 25 SMA on the daily chart. In addition, RSI is in positive crossover and upward trending suggesting the continuation of the current trend for next few days. Therefore, we keep our bullish view on Gold with an expectation of 30500 levels.

CRUDEOIL MCX Crude Oil price have found resistance around the reflection point twice. In addition, price slipped below its range-bound pattern on the daily chart which adds to the bearishness. Moreover, NYMEX crude is struggling to sustain above $50 mark suggests a capping of upside around $50. Further more price slipped below 25 SMA on a daily chart. Therefore, we keep our view bearish on MCX Crude and expect a correction towards 2850 levels in the few trading session.

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-OCT-2017

669

667

665

663

661

659.50

658.00

657.00

656.50

SYBEANIDR

20-SEP-2017

3250

3220

3180

3150

3122

3100

3080

3060

3040

RMSEED

20-SEP-2017

3925

3900

3875

3850

3825

3800

3775

3750

3700

JEERAUNJHA

20-SEP-2017

20750

20500

20250

20000

19725

19500

19250

19000

18750

GUARSEED10

20-SEP-2017

3900

3870

3850

3830

3807

3770

3740

3700

3670

TMC

19-SEP-2017

7890

7826

7776

7700

7678

7550

7402

7350

7300

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-OCT-2017

677

673

669

665

661

658.00

656.50

654

650.10

SYBEANIDR

20-SEP-2017

3350

3300

3250

3180

3122

3080

3040

3000

2960

RMSEED

20-SEP-2017

4025

3975

3925

3875

3825

3775

3700

3625

3550

JEERAUNJHA

20-SEP-2017

21750

21250

20750

20250

19725

19250

18750

18250

17750

GUARSEED10

20-SEP-2017

4000

3950

3900

3850

3807

3740

3670

3630

3590

TMC

19-SEP-2017

8150

8000

7890

7776

7678

7402

7300

7210

7122

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET Indian government has banned import of wheat from Bangladesh and Latin American countries that have reported deadly wheat blast disease to prevent spread of the disease in Indian crops. The Latin American fungal wheat disease had made its way across the border from Bangladesh into India in the rabi season, and led to 90% decline in the output in the affected fields. Data released from agriculture ministry showed acreage of soybean across the country was at 10.5 mln ha, down 7.2% from a year ago, according to latest data released by the agriculture ministry. The total area under soybean has declined this year due to a fall in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, because of poor rains in the state so far. In Madhya Pradesh, acreage of the crop was at 5.01 mln ha, lower than 5.36 mln ha in the previous year. In Maharashtra, farmers have planted nearly soybean across 3.8 mln ha, down 3.1% on year, while in Rajasthan, acreage was at 924,500 ha, down from 1.02 mln ha the previous year. Brazilian soy exports in month of August hit all-time high of 5.7 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes above August 2015. In this year, total exports of soy have reached 57.6 million tonnes. Mentha oil prices drifted lower as speculators trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from industries. As per report Essential Oil- Global Industry Perspective Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast 2014-2020, global demand of essential oil will increase in coming years. Global essential oil market is mainly driven by increasing demand from natural and organic care products. This will boost mentha oil demand mainly from medicines health products cosmetics as well as food and beverages. From export front demand for mentha will emerge from EU, UK, Japan and Singapore cotton futures are expected to witness range bound move in absence of fresh cues to the market. Prices are likely to track short term interim fundamentals which may support upward move in cotton. Prices are closely monitoring arrival progress in northern region which has delayed due to unfavorable weather condition. Forecast of heavy rainfall in Punjab for next two days may lead to delay in arrivals and may cause prices to move up further at futures platform. Beside, mounting concerns over crop damage in US caused by hurricane Harvey could be the major factor to lead prices higher in near term. Crop damage in US may turn beneficial for India exporters as India is the second largest exporter of cotton after US. However, comfortable supply outlook supported by good crop condition across India could restrict the major gains. Moreover, prices may follow cues from better monsoon progress in key cotton growing region as IMD forecasted above normal rainfall for Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana for next three days starting from Friday. Overall cotton acreages have been higher by 16.71 % y/y till end of August as about 119.67 lakh hac was sown under cotton till 25th Aug Aug compare to 102.54 lakh hac planted last year till date. Total cotton acreages in Gujarat and Maharashtra has increased by 12% y/y and 7% y/y respectively whereas it has been reported to be increased by 47% y/y and 41% y/y in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh respectively. Crop condition is likely to be good in upcoming days owing to above

normal monsoon rainfall forecast as IMD projected above normal monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Maharashtra for next three days Castor seed futures traded in range bound levels during the last trade on profit booking at exiting levels Hence, most active Sept futures closed at Rs.4598/quintal, down by 0.39% while next month Oct futures closed with loss of 0.38% from its last close As on 31st August 2017, total 40,384 tons castor seeds are available at NCDEX approved warehouses, which is up by 819 tons compared to prior day whereas 3274 tons was in process As per IMD latest data, Gujarat has received 758.80 mm rainfall during the period of 1st June to 3rd Sept 2017, which is up by 32% compared to normal distribution of 576.90 mm while Rajasthan has received 429.80 mm, higher by 18% against normal distribution of 365.50 mm; for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season has so far upto September 3rd is 4% below Long Period Average (LPA)

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW SOYABEAN NCDEX Soybean reversed sharply from Rs.3280 and is now trading closer to Rs.3065 mark. Rising trend line support and horizontal support near Rs.3050 suggests possibility of a pullback rally. Key resistances are placed at Rs.3160 / 3280 whereas Rs.3050 / 2980 may act as strong supports. Sideways to positive consolidation is likely for the week as long as Rs.2980 is held.

RM SEED NCDEX RMSeed continues to form higher highs and higher lows on the short-term time frame. Strong supports are now placed at Rs.3760 / 3610 whereas Rs.3910 / 4130 are expected to act as stiff resistances.

Rising 14-period RSI supports the bullish view. Thus, dip buying is advised as long as Rs.3610 is held.

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