✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29- SEP-2017
138
138
137
136
135
134
133
132
131
COPPER
30- NOV-2017
454
452
450
448
446
444
442
440
438
19-SEP-17
3128
3108
3088
3068
3031
3020
2991
2971
2945
GOLD
05-OCT--2017
30850
30652
30500
30350
30128
30050
29900
29700
29555
LEAD
29- SEP-2017
155.10
154.50
153.90
153.10
152.70
152
151.2
150.50
149.80
NATURAL GAS
26-SEP-2017
202
200
198
196
194
192.10
190.10
188.20
186
NICKEL
29- SEP-2017
850
825
800
795
782
770
751
742
735
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
41800
41400
41200
40999
40600
40400
40150
39901
39700
ZINC
29- DEC-2017
208
207.10
206.50
205.90
205
203
201
199
197
CRUDE OIL
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
29- SEP-2017
143
141
139
137
135
133
131
129
127
COPPER
30- JUN-2017
462
458
454
450
446
442
438
434
430
CRUDE OIL
19-SEP-17
3200
3150
3128
3088
3031
2991
2945
2900
2850
GOLD
05-OCT--2017
31251
31000
30850
30500
30128
29900
29555
29200
29000
LEAD
29- SEP-2017
157.30
156.20
155.10
153.90
152.70
151.2
149.80
149.00
148.30
NATURAL GAS
26-SEP-2017
210
206
202
198
194
190.10
186
182
180
NICKEL
29- SEP-2017
920
898.90
850
800
782
751
735
720
700.10
SILVER
05-JUL-2017
39980
39500
41800
41200
40600
40150
39700
37500
37110
ZINC
29- DEC-2017
171.50
168.50
208
206.50
205
201
197
154.90
152.10
Tuesday 05 September 2017
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
USDINR
27-SEP-17
64.60
64.50
64.40
64.30
64.20
64.10
64.00
63.90
63.80
EURINR
27-SEP-17
77.10
76.90
76.70
76.55
76.33
76.10
75.95
75.80
75.64
GBPINR
27-SEP-17
83.77
83.55
83.33
83.21
82.99
82.80
82.60
82.40
82.20
JPYINR
27-SEP-17
60.20
59.50
59.30
58.90
58.67
58.58
58.49
58.40
58.30
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
USDINR
27-SEP-17
65.00
64.80
64.60
64.40
64.20
64.00
63.80
63.60
63.40
EURINR
27-SEP-17
77.90
77.50
77.10
76.70
76.33
75.95
75.64
75.40
75.01
GBPINR
27-SEP-17
84.33
83.99
83.77
83.33
82.99
82.60
82.20
81.80
81.40
JPYINR
27-SEP-17
61.00
60.60
60.20
59.30
58.67
58.49
58.30
58.10
57.90
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY ) ✍ GOLD Gold prices started the week with a huge leap forward on the back of host of supportive factors for gold at the moment. Spot gold edged higher towards $1336/ounce, highest in 42 weeks on Monday in Asia after the North Korean nuclear test over the weekend. Earlier the weaker than expected nonfarm report on Friday also lifted the gold prices. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 156 thousand in August of 2017, below a downwardly revised 189 thousand in July and lower than market expectations of 180 thousand. US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4 percent in August 2017 from 4.3 percent in the previous month and above market consensus of 4.3 percent. North Korea on Sunday conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test, which it said was of an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile, prompting the threat of a “massive” military response from the United States if it or its allies were threatened. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States stood at 96.8 in August of 2017, below the preliminary estimate of 97.6 and compared with July's final reading of 93.4.Separtaely, The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 58.8 in August of 2017 from 56.3 in July, beating market expectations of 56.5. It is the highest reading since April of 2011 Construction spending in the US unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent month-on-month to USD 1.21 trillion in July 2017, the lowest level since October 2016, following an upwardly revised 1.4 percent drop in June and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 231,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 29th. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 208,438 net contracts. The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 53,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 29th. This was a weekly gain of 9,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,546 net contracts. ✍ BASE METAL Base metals complex remained in the green zone by the time of closing of previous session; Nickel was the top gainer on Friday at LME as well as on MCX futures market. LME Copper hit its highest in three years in early Asian trading on Monday as investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust global factory growth. Factories across Asia and Europe cranked up production last month as global demand remained strong, confounding expectations growth may have peaked. LME Nickel strike highest since June 2015, up 2.5 percent as steel and its inputs stretched a rally fuelled by expectations that China
will close capacity over winter to clear its smog-choked skies. Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on Friday. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in August after two straight months of hefty increases, but the pace of gains should be more than enough for the Federal Reserve to announce a plan to start trimming a massive bond portfolio accumulated as it sought to bolster the economy. Copper prices on Friday showed upward trajectory and went higher at MCX Future markets by 1.71% whereas at LME prices went up by 0.7%. Stocks at LME decreased by 2.17% and cancelled warrants increased massively by 3.55%.Copper hit its highest in three years in early Asian trading on Monday as investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust global factory growth.Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on Friday Nickel prices on Thursday remained the top performer on LMe as the prices gained around 1.9% at LME and moved higher by 0.7% in MCX futures market. At LME, Stocks increased by 0.67% on Thursday and cancelled warrants increased by 0.81%. Chinese rebar steel and iron ore futures gained after the manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc. South Korea's SK Innovation said on Thursday it has started commercial production of lithium-ion batteries with an increased portion of nickel. Aluminum prices on Friday posted gains as the prices went higher by 0.9% in LME & went up by 0.63% at MCX futures market. Stocks increased by 0.03% and cancelled warrants decreased by 0.56%. Aluminum prices have rallied this year amid burgeoning optimism about consumption in China, as well as the impact of supply-side reforms. According to the most recent data, China’s July aluminum production was at the lowest since February 2017. If we exclude February, when production was lower due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, July’s aluminum production is actually at a one-year low.China accounts for more than half of the glob Lead prices on Friday drifted higher by the closing higher at 0.04% in LME trading session and at MCX prices went up by 0.8%. As per LME data, stocks at LME declined by 0.17% on Friday & cancelled warrants also decreased by 0.2%. The supply side fundamentals are supporting the prices as Chinese primary lead production in the first seven months of 2017 has decreased by 6.64% y-o-y due to concentrate supply tightness. Whereas the rise in cancelled warrants last week at LME tracked warehouse shows the robust demand for the metal. Zinc prices on Friday uprehended as prices went up at MCX future market by 2.32% whereas went same in LME by 1.24%. As per LME data, stocks at LME decreased by 0.06% on Friday whereas cancelled warrants decreased by 0.11%. Chinese rebar steel gaining currently after the manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc. Zinc’s monthly gain was the biggest in more than two years pushed by bets on tighter supplies and Chinese demand ✍ ENERGY
Choppiness in likely to continue for short term supported by shutdowns of U.S. production following Hurricane Harvey, but pressured by expected downturn in crude demand as storm knocked out refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Department of Energy reported eight U.S. oil refineries with total of 2.1 million bpd, or 11.4% of total U.S. refining capacity, were still shut down. Iran’s oil minister announcement of OPEC members' compliance with agreement to reduce output to have improved in recent months too supported prices on lower levels. Markets were nervously eyeing developments in North Korea, where military conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test over weekend, prompting threat of "massive" military response from US if it or its allies were threatened. Market participants will now shift their focus to crude oil inventories data that will be released on Thursday. U.S. crude oil prices edged higher on Monday while gasoline prices slumped to pre-Hurricane Harvey levels, as oil refineries and pipelines in the U.S. Gulf Coast slowly resumed activity, easing supply concerns. Damage by Harvey to the oil infrastructure in the Gulf Coast appeared less extensive than some had feared. A number of major refineries, which convert crude oil to refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel, were gradually resuming operations on Monday. Colonial Pipeline, the largest American fuel system, was restarting the distillates segment of its pipeline from Texas to New Jersey. Its gasoline pipeline was due to resume operations on Tuesday, the company said. At the same time, about 5.5 percent of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico's oil production, or 96,000 barrels of daily output, remained shut on Sunday, down from a peak of more than 400,000 bpd last week. European gasoline refining margins dropped by nearly a fifth on Monday. And while the U.S. government tapped its strategic oil reserves for the first time in five years last week, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global energy watchdog saw no need for a coordinated international release of oil stocks after Harvey.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW GOLD :On the daily chart, MCX Gold prices have given a breakout above the falling channel on the daily chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold prices have been in a higher top higher bottom formation. Furthermore, prices have been sustaining above its 25 SMA on the daily chart. In addition, RSI is in positive crossover and upward trending suggesting the continuation of the current trend for next few days. Therefore, we keep our bullish view on Gold with an expectation of 30500 levels.
CRUDEOIL MCX Crude Oil price have found resistance around the reflection point twice. In addition, price slipped below its range-bound pattern on the daily chart which adds to the bearishness. Moreover, NYMEX crude is struggling to sustain above $50 mark suggests a capping of upside around $50. Further more price slipped below 25 SMA on a daily chart. Therefore, we keep our view bearish on MCX Crude and expect a correction towards 2850 levels in the few trading session.
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-OCT-2017
669
667
665
663
661
659.50
658.00
657.00
656.50
SYBEANIDR
20-SEP-2017
3250
3220
3180
3150
3122
3100
3080
3060
3040
RMSEED
20-SEP-2017
3925
3900
3875
3850
3825
3800
3775
3750
3700
JEERAUNJHA
20-SEP-2017
20750
20500
20250
20000
19725
19500
19250
19000
18750
GUARSEED10
20-SEP-2017
3900
3870
3850
3830
3807
3770
3740
3700
3670
TMC
19-SEP-2017
7890
7826
7776
7700
7678
7550
7402
7350
7300
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY
EXPIRY DATE
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
18-OCT-2017
677
673
669
665
661
658.00
656.50
654
650.10
SYBEANIDR
20-SEP-2017
3350
3300
3250
3180
3122
3080
3040
3000
2960
RMSEED
20-SEP-2017
4025
3975
3925
3875
3825
3775
3700
3625
3550
JEERAUNJHA
20-SEP-2017
21750
21250
20750
20250
19725
19250
18750
18250
17750
GUARSEED10
20-SEP-2017
4000
3950
3900
3850
3807
3740
3670
3630
3590
TMC
19-SEP-2017
8150
8000
7890
7776
7678
7402
7300
7210
7122
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW � FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET Indian government has banned import of wheat from Bangladesh and Latin American countries that have reported deadly wheat blast disease to prevent spread of the disease in Indian crops. The Latin American fungal wheat disease had made its way across the border from Bangladesh into India in the rabi season, and led to 90% decline in the output in the affected fields. Data released from agriculture ministry showed acreage of soybean across the country was at 10.5 mln ha, down 7.2% from a year ago, according to latest data released by the agriculture ministry. The total area under soybean has declined this year due to a fall in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, because of poor rains in the state so far. In Madhya Pradesh, acreage of the crop was at 5.01 mln ha, lower than 5.36 mln ha in the previous year. In Maharashtra, farmers have planted nearly soybean across 3.8 mln ha, down 3.1% on year, while in Rajasthan, acreage was at 924,500 ha, down from 1.02 mln ha the previous year. Brazilian soy exports in month of August hit all-time high of 5.7 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes above August 2015. In this year, total exports of soy have reached 57.6 million tonnes. Mentha oil prices drifted lower as speculators trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from industries. As per report Essential Oil- Global Industry Perspective Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast 2014-2020, global demand of essential oil will increase in coming years. Global essential oil market is mainly driven by increasing demand from natural and organic care products. This will boost mentha oil demand mainly from medicines health products cosmetics as well as food and beverages. From export front demand for mentha will emerge from EU, UK, Japan and Singapore cotton futures are expected to witness range bound move in absence of fresh cues to the market. Prices are likely to track short term interim fundamentals which may support upward move in cotton. Prices are closely monitoring arrival progress in northern region which has delayed due to unfavorable weather condition. Forecast of heavy rainfall in Punjab for next two days may lead to delay in arrivals and may cause prices to move up further at futures platform. Beside, mounting concerns over crop damage in US caused by hurricane Harvey could be the major factor to lead prices higher in near term. Crop damage in US may turn beneficial for India exporters as India is the second largest exporter of cotton after US. However, comfortable supply outlook supported by good crop condition across India could restrict the major gains. Moreover, prices may follow cues from better monsoon progress in key cotton growing region as IMD forecasted above normal rainfall for Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana for next three days starting from Friday. Overall cotton acreages have been higher by 16.71 % y/y till end of August as about 119.67 lakh hac was sown under cotton till 25th Aug Aug compare to 102.54 lakh hac planted last year till date. Total cotton acreages in Gujarat and Maharashtra has increased by 12% y/y and 7% y/y respectively whereas it has been reported to be increased by 47% y/y and 41% y/y in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh respectively. Crop condition is likely to be good in upcoming days owing to above
normal monsoon rainfall forecast as IMD projected above normal monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Maharashtra for next three days Castor seed futures traded in range bound levels during the last trade on profit booking at exiting levels Hence, most active Sept futures closed at Rs.4598/quintal, down by 0.39% while next month Oct futures closed with loss of 0.38% from its last close As on 31st August 2017, total 40,384 tons castor seeds are available at NCDEX approved warehouses, which is up by 819 tons compared to prior day whereas 3274 tons was in process As per IMD latest data, Gujarat has received 758.80 mm rainfall during the period of 1st June to 3rd Sept 2017, which is up by 32% compared to normal distribution of 576.90 mm while Rajasthan has received 429.80 mm, higher by 18% against normal distribution of 365.50 mm; for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season has so far upto September 3rd is 4% below Long Period Average (LPA)
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW SOYABEAN NCDEX Soybean reversed sharply from Rs.3280 and is now trading closer to Rs.3065 mark. Rising trend line support and horizontal support near Rs.3050 suggests possibility of a pullback rally. Key resistances are placed at Rs.3160 / 3280 whereas Rs.3050 / 2980 may act as strong supports. Sideways to positive consolidation is likely for the week as long as Rs.2980 is held.
RM SEED NCDEX RMSeed continues to form higher highs and higher lows on the short-term time frame. Strong supports are now placed at Rs.3760 / 3610 whereas Rs.3910 / 4130 are expected to act as stiff resistances. Rising 14-period RSI supports the bullish view. Thus, dip buying is advised as long as Rs.3610 is held.
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