Commodity Research Report 10 Aug 2015 Ways2Capital

Page 1


✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 AUG 2015 103

101

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

COPPER

31 AUG 2015 344

339

334

331

329

326

324

319

314

CRUDE OIL

19 AUG 2015 3058 2986

2914

2869

2842

2797

2770

2698

2626

GOLD

05OCT 2015 2568 25412 7

25137

25015

24862 24740

24587

24312

24037

LEAD

31 AUG 2015 117

114

112

110

109

108

106

103

101

NATURAL GAS 26 AUG 2015 190

186

182

180

178

176

174

170

166

722

708

700

694

686

680

666

652

34765

34412

33991

33638

33217

32443

31669

120

119

118

117

116

115

114

NICKEL

31 AUG 2015 736

SILVER

04 SEP 2015 3631 35539 3

ZINC

31 AUG 2015

122 124

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-2015

31 AUG

112

108

104

102

100

98

96

92

COPPER

31-AUG-2015

31 AUG

357

348

339

334

330

325

321

312

CRUDE OIL

19-AUG-2015

19 AUG

3551

3331

3111

2967

2891

2747

2671

2451

GOLD

05-OCT-2015

05 OCT

26247

25762

25277

25085

24792

24600

24307

23822

LEAD

31-AUG-2015

31 AUG

121

117

113

111

109

107

105

101

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015

26 AUG

205

196

187

183

178

174

169

160

NICKEL

31-AUG-2015

31 AUG

761

739

717

704

695

682

673

651

SILVER

04-SEP-2015

04 SEP

36961

35944

34927

34493

33910

33476

32893

31876

ZINC

31-AUG-2015

31 AUG

137

131

125

121

119

115

113

107


✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 OCT 2015

583

574

565

562

556

553

547

538

529

SYBEANIDR

20 OCT 2015

3245

3185

3125

3097

3065

3037

3005

2945

2885

RMSEED

18 SEP 2015

4290

4228

4166

4127

4104

4065

4042

3980

3918

JEERAUNJHA

18 SEP 2015

15746 15456

15166

15043

14876 14753 14586 14296

14006

CHANA

18 SEP 2015

4748

4620

4492

4444

4364

4316

4236

4108

3980

CASTORSEED

18 SEP 2015

4178

4135

4092

4066

4049

4023

4006

3963

3920

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

SYOREFIDR

20-AUG-2015 20 OCT 2015

588

577

566

562

555

551

544

533

SYBEANIDR

20-AUG-2015 20 OCT 3473 2015

3344

3215

3142

3086

3013

2957

2828

RMSEED

18-SEP-2015 18 SEP 4604 2015

4448

4292

4190

4136

4034

3980

3826

JEERAUNJHA

18-SEP-2015 18 SEP 17990 2015

17015

16040

15480 15065 14505 14090

13115

CHANA

18-SEP-2015 18 SEP 5635 2015

5241

4847

4622

4453

4228

4059

3665

CASTORSEED

18-SEP-2015 18 SEP 4350 2015

4250

4150

4095

4050

3995

3950

3850


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS

� Gold Continuing its slide for a fourth consecutive day, gold prices on Thursday dipped below Rs 25,000, having lost Rs 40 to trade, reaching its lowest in over four-year at Rs 24,980 per 10 grams (g) at the domestic bullion market.The precious was trading at five-year lows in the global market. There was an easing of demand from jewelers too, as retailers deferred their buying plans in the hope of further dip in the yellow metal prices. On the other hand, silver managed to recover some grounds on the back of scattered demand from consuming industries and rose by Rs 100 to Rs 33,800 per kg. Bullion traders saw a weak trend in gold where it traded at nearly five-year lows in global markets in anticipation of a possible rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in coming months.The sentiment lifted dollar, eroding demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment, and dragged down gold prices to over four-year lows in the national capital. Drying up of demand from retailers as well as jewelers on hopes of further dip in prices too dampened trading sentiments. Globally, gold in Singapore, which normally determines price trend on the domestic front, was trading lower at USD 1,085.08 an ounce, near the lowest level in five years.In the national capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 40 each to Rs 24,980 and Rs 24,830 per 10 grams respectively, its weakest level since August 6, 2011.The precious metal has now lost Rs 280 in last three days. Strengthening dollar, possible hike in rates by the US Fed and considerable fall in demand, dragged down the precious metal below the psychological Rs 25,000-mark. Tracking gold, sovereign fell by Rs 100 to close at Rs 22,100 per piece of eight grams.In contrast, silver ready managed to close higher by Rs 100 to Rs 33,800 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 135 to Rs 33,565 per kg.Silver coins remained unchanged at Rs 48,000 for buying and Rs 49,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

� Silver Tracking a weak global trend, silver prices moved down Rs 36 to Rs 33,445 per kg in futures trade on wednesday as speculators cut down bets.At Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in September contracts declined Rs 36, or 0.11%, to Rs 33,445 per kg in a business turnover of 300 lots.Also, the white metal for delivery in far-month December contracts eased Rs 27, or 0.08%, to Rs 34,199 per kg in three lots. Speculators trimmed bets following a weak global trend after a voting member of the US Federal Reserve said the central bank is close to raising interest rates, lifting the dollar to a four-month high.


✍ Zinc Supported by a firming trend overseas and pickup in domestic demand, zinc futureson thurday edged up 0.25% as participants built up positions.At Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in August gained 30 paise, or 0.25%, to Rs 121 per kg with a business turnover of 691 lots.The metal for delivery in September contracts rose by a similar margin to Rs 121.75 per kg in a business turnover of 16 lots.Fresh positions created by speculators on the back of improved demand at the spot market and gains in base metals in global market, supported the upside in zinc futures.

✍ Nickel Nickel futures traded lower by 0.28% to Rs 701.20 per kg largely in tune with weak overseas trend amidst subdued demand from alloy-makers at domestic spot markets on wednesday.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in September weakened by Rs 2, or 0.28%, to Rs 701.20 per kg in a business turnover of 36 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was down by Rs 1.90, or 0.27%, at Rs 694.20 per kg in 683 lots.It can be said ,part from weak demand from alloy makers at domestic spot markets, a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange on speculation US interest rates will be increased as soon as next month weighed on nickel prices at futures trade here.

✍ Crude Oil Oil prices looked set to continue a multi- week decline in Asian trade on friday on concerns over a global oversupply of crude and mixed prospects for energy demand. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery was at $44.83, down from $47.12 a week ago, and on course for its eighth consecutive week of declines.Brent crude for September, meanwhile, was trading at $49.73 compared to $52.21 last week, and set for a sixth straight weekly fall.In Asian trade through the day, both contracts were up slightly, with WTI rising 17 cents from $44.66 in New York and Brent gaining 21 cents from $49.52.A glut of crude oil supply is seen as the main driver for a sharp decline in oil prices that has seen crude fall about 50% from mid-2014 levels.The risks remain substantially skewed to the downside." The United States is producing crude at high levels and output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to exceed the cartel's quota of 30 million barrels per day.In addition, investors were looking ahead to additional supplies of oil coming into the market as part of last month's historic deal between six major powers and Iran over its nuclear programmed.In exchange for curbing its nuclear activities, Tehran will see the lifting of sanctions, which have slashed its oil exports.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Agri Update Beside the export of traditional agricultural products like spice and sugar, Indian companies can now look forward to supplying high-quality foodstuff to China, with consumers there becoming more quality conscious. “Indian companies can scout for business opportunities in China E-commerce there has grown to 10 per cent of retail sales. Last year, China’s per capita income was $7,500 per annul; measured by purchasing power parity, it was $13,000-14,000. Despite a slowing economy, consumption remains a main driver. Higher disposable income has also has made consumers more choosy about quality, safety and protein rich products. Several incidences of issues emerging in food safety were reported in China. This is another reason why more Chinese companies source good brands, mainly from the US and Europe. China’s economy is now expected to grow at six to seven per cent annually till it stabilize, a new normal for the economy. He foresees further consolidation in China’s food and agriculture sector. It will increase import of soybean and feed-grain. At the downstream side, e-commerce will continue to play a big role. “There are enormous opportunities in China for foreigners to invest or tie-up with local companies, and Indian companies can look forward for such opportunities. Products in this regard include high-value dairy, cashew, processed seafood, basmati rice and sesame seeds.

✍ Vegetable prices up on lower supply Vegitable prices shot up sharply in the last one month due to supply disruptions in major producing centers following heavy rainfall that affected the plying of trucks.While bitter gourd is costlier by 140 per cent in one month and was trading at Rs 2,400-3,200 a quintal on Monday,cauliflower and brinjal firmed by 117 per cent and 67 per cent, respectively, to Rs 1,300-1,600 a quintal and Rs 1,000-1,200 a quintal. Vegetable sowing was initially disrupted in Maharashtra and Gujarat by two dry weeks in July and thereafter floods in Gujarat and heavy rainfall in Maharashtra damaged seedlings. Traders estimate lower vegetable output this year.In the absence of customers, vegetables prices decline. They rise when customer turnout is higher. Arrivals have been normal.Data compiled by the National Horticulture Board (NHB) showed arrivals of brinjal in Mumbai’s mandi had declined to 62 tonnes from 84 tonnes a month ago. Similarly, arrivals of cabbage slumped to 170 tonnes today from 195 tonnes on July 3. The deluge in Gujarat has disrupted supply of vegetables from the state. Arrivals from other states have also declined significantly.


Seed prices have gone up by 10-15%. Also, labour cost has doubled due to non availability of farm labour. So, farmers have no choice but to sell vegetables at high prices. This level of price will continue for two-four weeks until new season arrivals being in September. Nath Seeds’ Managing Director Satish Kagliwal confirmed that seed prices had gone up in those areas where rainfall remained short. Onion prices in the retail market here jumped to Rs 50 a kg on Monday, a rise of Rs 20 a kg, or 67 per cent, in the last one month. Total arrivals of onion were reported at 64.5 tonnes here on Monday against 90 tonnes a month ago.The season between July and September is crucial for vegetable prices as supply declines normally due to fewer trucks to ferry commodities from warehouses in the hinterland. Truckers fear being stalled in mud.

✍ Castorseed Castorseed prices fell by 0.4 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for August 2015 contract was trading at Rs. 3,961 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.4 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,981 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,977. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,948 till the trading.

✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed lower by 2.73 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for August 2015 contract closed at Rs. 14,800 per quintal, down by 2.73 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,215 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,215. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 14,770.

✍ Chana Chana prices closed lower by 0.04 per cent on Monday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for August 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,581 per quintal, down by 0.04 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,592 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,583. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,568. India is the largest producer of chickpea followed by Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. India produces around 6 to 8 million tonnes and contributes around 70 per cent of the total world production.


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